81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by jon s

My view is that Warner does not care about how well Fox, Sony or Disney titles are doing. True it's all about the Benjamins. But Warner only cares about how well their movies are doing. They see that overall sales are in Blu. But if the Warner Red movies start outselling the Blu movies in the same title, why would they drop Red? Again Blu is winning because we have more titles, but that is not to say that individual releases are still in Blus favor...

This analysis seems weak considering that dual format titles have always done better on blu than red with the exception of PE. How much more proof do you need? Also you don't seem to have heard the many people who responded to you talking about the issues WB had w/ HP on blu. They themselves have tainted the water so they can't very well use this as the analysis tool they had hoped. I personally cancelled my HP order for this reason.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by jon s

I am just trying to emphasize that while we look at overall sales figures, Warner looks at what's going in their wallet. We shud be more observant at their title sales to see which way the wind is blowing.

Either way, until the next sales figures come out, we will see what happens.

Dude, it's not like your point of view is new. It's been discussed on here for months. However WB has majorly screwed up the HP release on blu so the numbers are severely tainted. They have enough data across numerous releases to know the score. Maybe they wanted to use HP for some analysis but they blew that chance by botching the entire release. Blu will still do well, but not nearly as well as if WB had done it right.

[JJ_L]

What's your take?
Which high-def disc format will prevail?
Blu-Ray
83%

HD DVD
14%

Neither, still a two-format market
3%

I still have a Betamax
1%


Total Votes: 813

[mykevermin]

Originally Posted by jon s

I am just trying to emphasize that while we look at overall sales figures, Warner looks at what's going in their wallet. We shud be more observant at their title sales to see which way the wind is blowing.

But you simply can't ignore that they surely are concerned with the public who has, by and large, said "no thanks, we'll wait until there's one format." The potential gains in sales from ensuring only one format exists is no doubt enticing to every studio - especially when taking into account slight declines in DVD sales (along with a steeper predicted decline in 2008).

Now, it won't be a precise one-day-warner-goes-blu-exclusive-the-next-day-dud-goes-belly-up and then everyone rushes out to join the BD clan exercise. But Warner's exclusivity will convey an inevitable decisive victory for BD such that Universal will no doubt follow at some point, and Paramount when they can. It will set in motion a chain of events that will kill off HD DVD quite quickly, and even if HD DVD has sparse space on store shelves in the future, consumers will know that there really is only one format to go to, and likewise, overall sales numbers will increase.

I can't help but think that the potential sales from holdouts matter more than early adopters (us). Not in the "which format does the public sway towards" sense - because, obviously, they're waiting for a decisive winner and don't have a horse in the race, they'll go towards whichever format remains. In that sense, their opinion is meaningless. However, once it is clear that one format is the winner, then they'll jump on board, no matter the format - it's the natural conclusion from the position they claim to be in. (no current holdout is going to boycott BD because they killed off HD DVD, otherwise they aren't a holdout! :lol

[Shadowself]

You can draw any trend line you want through a single data point.

Warner knows this.

A single title having 50.01:49.99 in favor of BD has as little significance as 99.99:0.01 in favor of BD.

Look at a dozen Warner titles or look across several studios and you might be able to discern a trend with some meaningful significance.

Warner knows this.

[LeoneFan]

You guys are underestimating Warner's role in all of this. They are still bringing in bucket loads of money from DVD royalties so they are in no hurry to chose a side. They will allow all the time needed to see if HDDVD can get back into this. The only time they will go Blu exclusive is if they feel that HDDVD is as good as dead. They are committed to HDDVD like Sony Pictures is committed to Blu-ray. They may be releasing on both formats but we all know which side they have been and still are favoring.

[Living Near Shamu]

Numbers?

[horseflesh]

Originally Posted by jon s

A non-biased observation...

While I have no doubt that Blu will do better than Red, my interest would be how well Harry Potter did on both sides. There have been rumors that the Potter sales are more or less even between the two formats. If so, that could mean that Toshiba's fire sale on players could be making an impact on disc sales.

Overall sales are nice for ratios, but a lot of the percentages are due to the fact that Blu has had more title releases than Red. A more revealing figure of sales would be the Warner title sales on each side, as you are now comparing oranges to oranges instead of apple to oranges. If Warner sees that Potter sales are more evenly distributed, in their eyes they would just prolong the format war to push sales either way. If their own title sales also show that the Blu titles are overwhelming better than Red, then I can see that the future for Red is dimming.

I'm not trying to just shoot down everything you've said, but....
HP5 apparently sold well on HD DVD last week, relative to Blu-ray.
Thing is it (and Bourne Ultimatum) is the first big "must have" on HD DVD, since Transformers, where Blu has had many.
HP5 & BU on HD DVD will have been snapped up last week and will probably be pretty healthy this week. After that they'll dip and the ratio on HP will steadily climb way over 1.2:1, probably be over 1.5:1 in a few weeks.

My point being, I don't think Warner are foolish or arrogant enough to base their decision on one week's sales for ONE title.

* also the **** up on the HP boxset would have lessened Blu sales, not by too much I don't think, but it would have had some affect.

[C6 Z06]

Originally Posted by Bombthroat

That site appears to have a trojan on it. Make sure your anti-virus definitions are updated before going there.

Yes, I saw that also.

[C6 Z06]

Originally Posted by SpikesBluBlooded

OK, I'm tired of waiting for the official numbers, I'm going home now... Time to start the long holiday weekend!!! Merry Christmas everyone!

I know you have a "puter" at home also! Oh, and merry x-mas!!

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

You guys are underestimating Warner's role in all of this. They are still bringing in bucket loads of money from DVD royalties so they are in no hurry to chose a side. They will allow all the time needed to see if HDDVD can get back into this. The only time they will go Blu exclusive is if they feel that HDDVD is as good as dead. They are committed to HDDVD like Sony Pictures is committed to Blu-ray. They may be releasing on both formats but we all know which side they have been and still are favoring.

This would be the case if DVD revenue is still growing. But it now looks like 2007 is the first actual dvd revenue decline. Since that total pie is between 24B & 28B, a projected 4% decline is a billion gone in movie revenue. Warner has to eat a portion of that billion shrinking of the pie because they are a visible percentage of the total take.

The template to consider is the audio CD industry. Once revenue stalls, the subsequent declines become steeper, and the analysts are predicting that DVD sales in the coming years could face double digit percentage declines.

As to why this happened to audioCDs, there's various theories. I know what mine is.

If not for this coming danger, none of the studios would be anxiously trying to look for other revenues such as downloads or HDM. When you consider everything, spending all that energy to make disks, of which over 90% are not even selling 20k units, that's bad business sense the bean counters would shut down over night if not for the long term strategists trying to find a way out of the oncoming disaster.

This is all speculation, as the studios understand their business better than I do. Presumably adults are at the helm of those companies and their job is to continue to increase revenues.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

The 340k is the Nielsen volume number for '300' sales through October 21st. It's not 1st alert week 1.

Just in case you planned on challenging him with that.

No. 340k = 2.11 * FirstAlert for Week1 of 300 combined.

2.11 = Paramount's TF number / First Alert for week1 of TF.

Warner's 300-combined number is 250k in week1. 250k/FirstAlert 300-combined =1.55.

If we go 1.6 or even 1.8 you could agree on that kind of deviation. But to go from 1.55 to 2.11 is a long road that stretches incredulity.

That's why Vaughn is mistaken, he should pay more attention to the basic math of how these things work. With bigger numbers, the math always has to follow certain rules.

[C6 Z06]

Originally Posted by jon s

I am just trying to emphasize that while we look at overall sales figures, Warner looks at what's going in their wallet. We shud be more observant at their title sales to see which way the wind is blowing.

Either way, until the next sales figures come out, we will see what happens.

All major studios look at their sales as well as the overall pic. They also do it a lot better than we do. Do you really think Warner, or any studio Blu or red, are not factoring #'s on which way their support will affect the current and more so the future market. They will do whatever supports their bottom line whatever the color. It better be Blu!!

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

You guys are underestimating Warner's role in all of this. They are still bringing in bucket loads of money from DVD royalties so they are in no hurry to chose a side. They will allow all the time needed to see if HDDVD can get back into this. The only time they will go Blu exclusive is if they feel that HDDVD is as good as dead. They are committed to HDDVD like Sony Pictures is committed to Blu-ray. They may be releasing on both formats but we all know which side they have been and still are favoring.

I'm not sure how often this has to be repeated.

WB was favouring HD-DVD, but when they turned down a deal to go HD-DVD exclusive, guys like Nickerson moved on.

[C6 Z06]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

Dude, it's not like your point of view is new. It's been discussed on here for months. However WB has majorly screwed up the HP release on blu so the numbers are severely tainted. They have enough data across numerous releases to know the score. Maybe they wanted to use HP for some analysis but they blew that chance by botching the entire release. Blu will still do well, but not nearly as well as if WB had done it right.

I just don't think that Warner will think they made a mistake here or that orders were cx'ed due to some disc packing issues. They have no idea how many Blu orders were cx'ed at all other retailers. They for sure don't know about any cx'ed at their own site because most of the time you cx with Warner direct it does not work anyway.

I think we should buy it anyway while we want the #'s to be strong for Blu and fix it after the fact so we still see the stronger Blu #'s.

[Whytewash]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

I'm not sure how often this has to be repeated.

WB was favouring HD-DVD, but when they turned down a deal to go HD-DVD exclusive, guys like Nickerson moved on.

+1

They also mentioned that they will be chosing one format very soon! In a few short months I guarantee we will hear WB switching to exclusive to a format

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by Neo65

That's why Vaughn is mistaken, he should pay more attention to the basic math of how these things work.

No, you should pay more attention to common sense and not make the mistake of thinking that you can apply one ratio to the other, just because it is simple and statistically possible. One problem with statistics is that some people misapply them. It isn't the fault of statistics, it is the fault of of those who misuse statistics.

The ratios that applied to 300 at the end of July don't have to apply to these titles in Q4 and I have already been over that Blu-ray studios have been using higher ratios themselves. In fact, Fox used a higher ratio for Die Hard 4 (including both singles and the box set) than Paramount used for Transformers.

I realize some people here want to be mad, but I wish people would use a little more common sense. There is no coincidence that Dave has gotten the ratios between the formats right the past few weeks, but yet people want to claim that he is wrong about how the First Alert numbers are comparing to what the studios are claiming, based off the ratios being different for a title released in July and these Q4 titles.

If you care about the truth then please quit claiming that Dave is wrong about the numbers and take my advice and ask an insider here about Die Hard 4. I can tell you that Fox claiming 100k meant a higher multiple for that title than Paramount claiming 190k meant for Transformers (compared to First Alert). Die Hard 4 did less than 45k in the First Alert numbers, counting both the individual and the box set.

Please, stop claiming Dave is wrong by misapplying some statistics, or ask an insider whether my statement is true about Die Hard 4 doing less than 45k the first week by First Alert count. I doubt an insider would lie to you about that, so you'll either get a confirmation that it was less than 45k, or no real answer.

I support Blu-ray over HD DVD, but I support the truth over either format.

Originally Posted by Neo65

With bigger numbers, the math always has to follow certain rules.

And it doesn't have to follow the rule you think it has to here. That is a misapplication of statistics/math. And again, if you want to claim otherwise and you care about the truth, ask for confirmation of my statement that Die Hard 4 did under 45k by First Alert the first week, even though Fox claimed 100k total.

--Darin

[Downhere]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I support Blu-ray over HD DVD, but I support the truth over either format.

I'll give a big Amen to that statement.

[DetroitSportsFan]

Originally Posted by Living Near Shamu

I see that the numbers haven't been posted yet, huH?

Maybe they're on Christmas vacation already.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I support Blu-ray over HD DVD, but I support the truth over either format.

--Darin

This is worth quoting again.