81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by al0137

Just want to make it clear - I am not (nor have not) made any predictions. I have theories that give a "win" for both sides depending on certain events but they are just theories. Of course I want blu to win! I've invested heavily in the format and it's technically superior to HD-DUD in every way but that doesn't mean that I think the powers-that-be are going make it a Blu future for us (just yet).

your theories are based off insider information. that you claim to have had. a theory based off insider information that you seem to think is credible, is not some random thought you had, its something that has substance to it. if your insider is wrong about his "theories" don't expect for us to ever even give you an ounce of credit again.

by the way there is no way both sides can have a win by any theory whatsoever. either one format wins or they both lose.

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Originally Posted by sparksj

You have a very valid point. But if Disney knew the war was going to last a while, they know they could make more money by selling both. Disney has a very interesting position in the market. I personally don't buy many movies. I rent them. Reason being, I don't generally like to watch something more than once. My kids, however, love to watch things over and over again. Because of this, only about 10% of the S-DVDs I own are for me. The remaining 90% are all kids shows. I currently only own an HD DVD player and am waiting for the right time to buy BR. I have pruchased only 6 HD DVD movies and 50% of them are for kids (I got Planet Earth more for the kids).

Blade Runner
Shrek 3rd
Polar Express
Transformers
Batman
PLanet Earth

The rest I rent. However, Once I go Blu, I will definitely buy all Disney movies. My three kids love them and would watch them all the time.

It sounds like you would know the answer to this better than I would. Isn't their a point where the cost of switching over to dual format would not outweigh the profit to be made doing so. However, lets say that Disney predicted that it would cost $xxxx amount to start HD DVD production but the could make 3 X $xxxx by doing so. Are you saying that Disney would still chose to stick with BR exclusively and give up th extra profit they could make?

I'll agree whole heartedly that right now they would not recoup their cost to conver to dual format. What are you thoughts? Am I way off here?

I'm pretty sure StockStar will say this, but just in case: HD DVD does not support region coding, and their format does not offer any real protection against piracy. Those two reasons alone are enough to keep Dinsney (and other studios) away from HD DVD for a very long time...

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by sparksj

You have a very valid point. But if Disney knew the war was going to last a while, they know they could make more money by selling both. Disney has a very interesting position in the market. I personally don't buy many movies. I rent them. Reason being, I don't generally like to watch something more than once. My kids, however, love to watch things over and over again. Because of this, only about 10% of the S-DVDs I own are for me. The remaining 90% are all kids shows. I currently only own an HD DVD player and am waiting for the right time to buy BR. I have pruchased only 6 HD DVD movies and 50% of them are for kids (I got Planet Earth more for the kids).

Blade Runner
Shrek 3rd
Polar Express
Transformers
Batman
PLanet Earth

The rest I rent. However, Once I go Blu, I will definitely buy all Disney movies. My three kids love them and would watch them all the time.

It sounds like you would know the answer to this better than I would. Isn't their a point where the cost of switching over to dual format would not outweigh the profit to be made doing so. However, lets say that Disney predicted that it would cost $xxxx amount to start HD DVD production but the could make 3 X $xxxx by doing so. Are you saying that Disney would still chose to stick with BR exclusively and give up th extra profit they could make?

I'll agree whole heartedly that right now they would not recoup their cost to conver to dual format. What are you thoughts? Am I way off here?

minus payoffs to disney, which im sure there would be. here is my problem with your theory. those who bought into HDM with kids in mind, bought into blu-ray. we have seen that kid titles (like shrek) sell awful on hd dvd. i cannot imagine something like the rat or cars selling more than 15k on hd dvd, which simply does not justify the costs or getting a production facility or converting a dvd one, getting liscensing fees (im sure they would be waved though), hiring employees, remastering it for a lesser format, and all for what? to sell an extra couple thousand copies of a movie that will cause there to be a stalemate and no successor to dvd which is already having dwindling sales. on top of the fact that they do have some bd patents i believe, and absoultely none with dud. on top of the fact that there is no secuirty with hd dvd or region protection. there is not a chance that disney is moving. this rumor comes up every single month by some fudsters i don't know why we think disney would possibly would leave us. their quality is amazing.

[al0137]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

by the way there is no way both sides can have a win by any theory whatsoever. either one format wins or they both lose.

That - I absolutely agree with you there. In any case, my "insider" information only gives me any credibility to say that Warner is still up for grabs (as of right before Christmas). I'm hoping to talk to my guy one more time before CES (he's on vacation now..) and hopefully he'll give me something more substantial. I still don't get it - what kind of predictions am I making thusfar other than to state the obvious?

[sj001]

Originally Posted by al0137

That - I absolutely agree with you there. In any case, my "insider" information only gives me any credibility to say that Warner is still up for grabs (as of right before Christmas). I'm hoping to talk to my guy one more time before CES (he's on vacation now..) and hopefully he'll give me something more substantial. I still don't get it - what kind of predictions am I making thusfar other than to state the obvious?

Why do I have a funny feeling that I know which "Insider" you are referring to?

Anyone else want to venture a guess???

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by cking2729

All those quotes Jaguar posted are just their "flavors of the week." It changes every few weeks to a new round of crap. Look back at the last few months of ignorance/FUD:

When Paramount switched, the fanboys cried they had dealt Blu-Ray a serious blow and proclaimed the "momentum had switched" - False

When Transformers and Shrek were released, the fanboys cried those were going to be THE weeks Blu-Ray was finally knocked off the top - False

When Venturer got into the HD-DVD market and produced "a new player," the fanboys cried there was now a new manufacturer and Blu-Ray was doomed - False

When HD-DVD couldn't win a single week of software sales, even with 2 of the biggest box office hits of the year, the fanboys cried if Wal-Mart were counted, they would be proved victorious - False

The fanboys cry that PS3 sales were abysmal and nobody uses them to watch movies - False

When Disney voted for the 51GB HD-DVD spec, the fanboys cried Disney was going exclusive HD-DVD - False

With all the new $99 firesale and other bargain players the fanboys cried they were going to win Harry Potter head-to-head sales unanimously and Warner would go HD-DVD exclusive - False

When all the people open up HD-DVD players on Christmas morning, the fanboys cry everyone will be out buying TONS of movies and "the avalanche that is HD-DVD" will FINALLY be unleashed - ________

I'll let you decide the most intelligent way to finish that one.....

Wow that was impressive to say the least.

[al0137]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

this rumor comes up every single month by some fudsters i don't know why we think disney would possibly would leave us. their quality is amazing.

I only made the Disney comment based off of my own opinions. It's easy to say that Disney won't leave BD but it's a lazy assumption based on technical specs and whatnot. I'm just saying if Warner does not bite to Blu exclusivity come Q1 of 2008, then we all need to start worrying about Disney more and more with the fact that they felt compelled enough to vote on the TL51 spec (the only Blu exclusive studio to do so..).

I don't think Disney care about Blu or HD-DUD. They care about leaving money on the table. The longer DUD sticks around, the more likely that Disney will go neutral. If they do.. we all lose. After Paramount, Blu needs to gain an exclusive studio to tip the scales and retain Disney. I think Disney is just as important as Warner. When this is all said and done, it'll be these two studios that determine the future of HDM.

[Dalese]

Originally Posted by al0137

Well.. my contact actually works for Warner HMV. So yeah - guess who I'm talking to is just some analyst who reads the stats. Just because somebody posts on this board every two minutes doesn't make them an "expert" by any means. I'm not saying I'm an "expert" either but just providing information as I know it from a close source to the action.

What do people want here!?!? We are in a war and need to fight! No one has won this thing yet regardless of how many people here want to think otherwise. I don't want to get caught again - I thought Blu had already won prior to the Paramount annoucement! If we sit back and proclaim victory while Toshiba and M$ are doing the real bidding, then we are all going to be very embarrassed come Jan. 7th.

Damn.

Information regarding the format war and Blu-ray is why we all come here. Some posting here are true insiders and have been designated as such by the moderators. Others have information that they receive from other sources that give us peeks into the inner workings of the industry, but not from an firsthand standpoint. I'm sure to most here, the latter would describe you.

There have been others that had posted here that also fit this description. One was a web-journalist who claimed insider knowledge of Blu-ray production yields and there was another whose first post regarding a "Warner going exclusive blu" rumor that started wildfire thread until it was proven a hoax.

A lot of members of this forum went through both of these (and others) so when a new poster starts claiming "insider-level" information there are many who doubt the validity of the source. And when you start interjecting your interpretations of this data that go into areas outside your "source" in the same post (ex. Disney going neutral), some see this as a sign that you may be not legit.

I for one, am not nor have never claimed to be an insider. I come here to catch up on the information available on my high-def format of choice so I welcome new valid sources. I am not saying your information is not correct, but it is difficult to tell from your posts where your Warner contact's information ends and your analysis begins.

One of the insiders here responded to one of your earlier posts on a point-by-point basis in the "What About Warner Thread" https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...&postcount=305 Before repeating your talking points from the previous post, perhaps you should go back to your "contact" with Maxpower's responses to see if you can get further details from your end.

[sparksj]

Originally Posted by SpikesBluBlooded

I'm pretty sure StockStar will say this, but just in case: HD DVD does not support region coding, and their format does not offer any real protection against piracy. Those two reasons alone are enough to keep Dinsney (and other studios) away from HD DVD for a very long time...

Very good point (both you and Stockstar).

I actually bought in to HD DVD for price ($170 xbox add on vs. $500 BR player) this was before the price reductions .

Disney is a key reason to go BR, for me anyway. I perosnally don't care too much about the PQ difference. They both look great to me (that's just my opinion so please no nasty comments about how I must be blind and stupid) I also drive an old car becasue it's paid for and I don't care if it get's scratched, so that tells you what kind of person I am... My Plasma tv is worth more than my car .

Anyway, I just care about the movies and maybe 15% of the extras. Disney has a history of doing things right. The first time I saw Cars on BR it was evident that they carried their attention to detail over to HD encoding.

However, since my house is wired, I'm going to hold out for the Profile 2.0 BR players. I love being able to get updates and extras right off of my network without burnging discs, etc.

BTW, I think the region coding issue you mentioned is the most improtant. Isn't Disney the #1 pirated media in the world?

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by sparksj

You have a very valid point. But if Disney knew the war was going to last a while, they know they could make more money by selling both.

How about lose more money selling both?

At 2:1, a Blu-ray studio going neutral gains 50% in sales in North America, and an HD DVD studio gains 200% in sales.
At 8:1, a Blu-ray studio going neutral gains 12.5% in sales in the rest of the world, while an HD DVD studio gains 800% in sales.

Gary

[kiko]

Originally Posted by sparksj

You have a very valid point. But if Disney knew the war was going to last a while, they know they could make more money by selling both. Disney has a very interesting position in the market. I personally don't buy many movies. I rent them. Reason being, I don't generally like to watch something more than once. My kids, however, love to watch things over and over again. Because of this, only about 10% of the S-DVDs I own are for me. The remaining 90% are all kids shows. I currently only own an HD DVD player and am waiting for the right time to buy BR. I have pruchased only 6 HD DVD movies and 50% of them are for kids (I got Planet Earth more for the kids).

Blade Runner
Shrek 3rd
Polar Express
Transformers
Batman
PLanet Earth

The rest I rent. However, Once I go Blu, I will definitely buy all Disney movies. My three kids love them and would watch them all the time.

It sounds like you would know the answer to this better than I would. Isn't their a point where the cost of switching over to dual format would not outweigh the profit to be made doing so. However, lets say that Disney predicted that it would cost $xxxx amount to start HD DVD production but the could make 3 X $xxxx by doing so. Are you saying that Disney would still chose to stick with BR exclusively and give up th extra profit they could make?

I'll agree whole heartedly that right now they would not recoup their cost to conver to dual format. What are you thoughts? Am I way off here?

Do you think Disney (and even Warner) prefer to make profit over two sides of a tiny market wich is in stalemate, or push to support one format and earn money of a unique and lucrative format ?

Think about it...

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by sparksj

The question becomes:
Is Disney promoting Blu Ray becaused it's the only format they sell? Are they just trying to increase their sales because overall HD sales are so low that they want to recoup their investment?

It makes sense to me that if I was a car dealer that only sold Mercedes, I would go around promoting the hell out of them. But that doesn't mean I wouldn't consider selling BMW it market demands for BMW vwent up?

Any thoughts on this?

Yes, I've a thought, why all the talk and speculation over Blu-ray supporting studios, why so little speculation over Universal, or Paramount jumping ship early etc, two studios who's sales are down right poor in the US, and virtually non existent in Europe, Japan and Australasia?

Why are people so scared of a format that's on it's last legs, has been shunned by 3/4 of the world, and is struggling to keep Blu-ray under a 2-1 lead in the US, despite virtually giving players away?

Don't you think the BDA are wise to MS underhand tactics, especially after Paramount?

[camper]

Originally Posted by patrick99

I think it is clear that Disney sees the same technical superiority in BD that all of us see. In HD DVD, their movies could not look as good as they do in BD.

Not only that, but all that interactivity that they like to cram on their website could easily fit on a BD and still have room to spare. They could even preview other movies in their catalog, show a 10-15 minute clip to hook my kids and get them to chant "Mickey, Mickey, Mickey" even more than they do now

The 'next step' for HD-DVD as far as space goes, can only provide 3 layers and one extra gig. Blu Ray can go to 3 layers and have 75. Or 4, and 100. If you're interactive intesnive or want to include massive amount of previews (which Disney does) than what would you pick? Especially if all or most can fit on a single disc...

~camper

[sj001]

Originally Posted by al0137

I only made the Disney comment based off of my own opinions. It's easy to say that Disney won't leave BD but it's a lazy assumption based on technical specs and whatnot. I'm just saying if Warner does not bite to Blu exclusivity come Q1 of 2008, then we all need to start worrying about Disney more and more with the fact that they felt compelled enough to vote on the TL51 spec (the only Blu exclusive studio to do so..).

I don't think Disney care about Blu or HD-DUD. They care about leaving money on the table. The longer DUD sticks around, the more likely that Disney will go neutral. If they do.. we all lose. After Paramount, Blu needs to gain an exclusive studio to tip the scales and retain Disney. I think Disney is just as important as Warner. When this is all said and done, it'll be these two studios that determine the future of HDM.

Disney actually does care about Blu-ray, they have invested a TON of money into marketing and promoting the product. The primary codec, AVC, that is owned by them is another reason this war is being fought, Disney and MS are not exactly allies, far from it.

...and the TL51 thing is such a joke, are you kidding me? How many times have I heard this argument, it ain't gonna happen, not on current HD-DVD players. Them voting on that means NOTHING, sheesh!

[Jonty]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

How about lose more money selling both?

At 2:1, a Blu-ray studio going neutral gains 50% in sales in North America, and an HD DVD studio gains 200% in sales.
At 8:1, a Blu-ray studio going neutral gains 12.5% in sales in the rest of the world, while an HD DVD studio gains 800% in sales.

Gary

Bingo. I think this is the point many miss/ignore. HD exclusive studios are leaving more money on the table than BD exclusive studios (except maybe Paramount, who have cash in pocket )

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by al0137

That - I absolutely agree with you there. In any case, my "insider" information only gives me any credibility to say that Warner is still up for grabs (as of right before Christmas). I'm hoping to talk to my guy one more time before CES (he's on vacation now..) and hopefully he'll give me something more substantial. I still don't get it - what kind of predictions am I making thusfar other than to state the obvious?

our insider (maxpower) gave very little credit, i feel like, to what information you had. max has a proven track record, much more so than you and your insider. The fact that he took the time to break your post down piece by piece and tell you what things were off, what things had some cred, and some other things that were kind of obvious (2 formats is a losing way), speaks volumes of what he thought of your "inside" info.

you might not have as much info as you thought, like you said your friend is a fly on the wall, there is a good chance that he/she has some correct things and told you, but that our insiders have a little more knowledge and understanding of teh situation. it appears as if they know more about contacts between the bda and warner than he/she did, as she said that she knew they talked to both parties about a month ago, where max knew that the bda in some shape or form had been talking to wb between then.

you don't really seem like a troll, just somebody who might not have as much correct info as they thought.

[sparksj]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

How about lose more money selling both?

At 2:1, a Blu-ray studio going neutral gains 50% in sales in North America, and an HD DVD studio gains 200% in sales.
At 8:1, a Blu-ray studio going neutral gains 12.5% in sales in the rest of the world, while an HD DVD studio gains 800% in sales.

Gary

True, but we don't know that the disney sales would follow the same trend as all HD sales. not all studios follow the 2:1 trend. Either way it's a moot point. I agree with stockstar that the region coding is far to great an issue for Disney.

[sparksj]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Yes, I've a thought, why all the talk and speculation over Blu-ray supporting studios, why so little speculation over Universal, or Paramount jumping ship early etc, two studios who's sales are down right poor in the US, and virtually non existent in Europe, Japan and Australasia?

Why are people so scared of a format that's on it's last legs, has been shunned by 3/4 of the world, and is struggling to keep Blu-ray under a 2-1 lead in the US, despite virtually giving players away?

Don't you think the BDA are wise to MS underhand tactics, especially after Paramount?

Maybe it's because Disney is the powerhouse that it is.... My perosnal opinion is that the others don't have the same level of movies to offer. I admin I don't know the actual sales figures... It's just my opnion.

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by al0137

then we all need to start worrying about Disney more and more with the fact that they felt compelled

I'm tired of this FUD. Soon it'll be 2 years in the running.

And "compelled" . So if you're a member of a group, and you as member of a group have the right to vote, and you vote for something that's a positive, that means you're "compelled"? I guess as "compelled" as I am to vote for the right stuff and do the right thing? Or would you feel safer if Disney had decided to throw an obstacle at progress and vote against a possible technological advancement? That's like voting against medical research funds for a Cancer vaccine from Doctor A since you prefer to go to Doctor B.

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

Or would you feel safer if Disney had decided to throw an obstacle at progress and vote against a possible technological advancement? That's like voting against medical research funds for a Cancer vaccine from Doctor A since you prefer to go to Doctor B.

That's just beautiful! Well put! Can we PLEASE put all of this Disney FUD to rest already?!?!