Straw that breaks the camels back...

[Clark Kent]

A major retailer dropping HD DVD would be a massive blow. Imagine the panic if Target, Best Buy, or Wal-Mart dropped HD DVD software/hardware from its stores. Obviously a studio move would also be a breaking point.

[forumwriter]

I'm going to continue to push for a cheap blu-ray player. If the studios see people buying the hardware for their format, they will continue to push that format.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by forumwriter

I'm going to continue to push for a cheap blu-ray player. If the studios see people buying the hardware for their format, they will continue to push that format.

we'll see under 199 before the end of 08...

I think that's not bad for a cutting-edge product going on it's 2nd year on the market...

[HighDefGeek]

In response to "Paramount & Universal going neutral" paramount and universal are not neutral...universal is HD-DVD exclusive...and paramount changed their minds to go HD-DVD exclusive as well which pisses me off. I was so looking forward to the newly remastered Star Trek to come out on blu-ray and now...they changed their minds...I am boycotting paramount...screw 'em.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by HighDefGeek

In response to "Paramount & Universal going neutral" paramount and universal are not neutral...universal is HD-DVD exclusive...and paramount changed their minds to go HD-DVD exclusive as well which pisses me off. I was so looking forward to the newly remastered Star Trek to come out on blu-ray and now...they changed their minds...I am boycotting paramount...screw 'em.

that's why he said "going neutral"...but it's not really "neutral" either..

neutral is supporting neither...the term is supporting both formats..

[Dalese]

Originally Posted by radagast

I said this months ago: When the point of inevitability happens, we will look back and say that is when it happened. We may not realize it until later.
In other words, we may already have reached that point and will look back and realize it later.

+1 for me.

Great point. The CE Manufacturers and Studios supporting Blu-ray have been working a market plan all along that will (if not already) lead to a blu victory. From our standpoint most of us are not privy to all the minute details of the action plan. It is not until we've seen them implemented that we know what they are.

When we look back on this format war any of the following might be considered the point of change:

• The PS3 is introduced with a built-in Blu-ray drive
• More CE manufacturers support Blu-ray
• More studios support Blu-ray
• Retailers make more shelf-space for Blu-ray
• Public perception that Blu-ray is better than DVD (or HD-DVD)
• Consumers choose Blu-ray over HD-DVD
• Prices drop on players
• Remaining HD-DVD supporting studios start releasing in Blu-ray
• Neutral studios drop HD-DVD support
• Toshiba starts producing Blu-ray players

[Crackbone]

Originally Posted by Dalese

+1 for me.

Great point. The CE Manufacturers and Studios supporting Blu-ray have been working a market plan all along that will (if not already) lead to a blu victory. From our standpoint most of us are not privy to all the minute details of the action plan. It is not until we've seen them implemented that we know what they are.

When we look back on this format war any of the following might be considered the point of change:

• The PS3 is introduced with a built-in Blu-ray drive
• More CE manufacturers support Blu-ray
• More studios support Blu-ray
• Retailers make more shelf-space for Blu-ray
• Public perception that Blu-ray is better than DVD (or HD-DVD)
• Consumers choose Blu-ray over HD-DVD
• Prices drop on players
• Remaining HD-DVD supporting studios start releasing in Blu-ray
• Neutral studios drop HD-DVD support
• Toshiba starts producing Blu-ray players

IMO, the point of inevitability was Black Friday. HD DVD had the cheap players for weeks @ that point and they made ZERO dent in the sales, as a matter of fact they lost and lost huge.

Furthermore, I believe that ad you saw in HMM pretty well pushed that fact home. We win, we won on high volume, we won when the deck was stacked against us.

[Go Blu]

Plus there were "ALLOT" of PS3's under trees this year.
Even if the most conservative 30% started buying Blu thats pretty massive.

[phansson]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

A major retailer dropping HD DVD would be a massive blow. Imagine the panic if Target, Best Buy, or Wal-Mart dropped HD DVD software/hardware from its stores. Obviously a studio move would also be a breaking point.

This is where I think you will see the straw that breaks the camels back.

[gandley]

yeah either one would force the market at this point. If warner go retailers will respond.

If retailers say, sod this and go Blu, then studios follow. cause and effect i guess

[forumwriter]

In a follow up to my post on a cheap Blu-Ray player, I was in MediaMarkt earlier today in Amsterdam.

There is a promotion running until the end of January for the Toshiba HD-E1 player. Now I realize that this is a past production end of run unit, but the offer is as follows.

For EUR 199.00

1 x Toshiba HD-E1
1 x Free HDMI Cable
15 x Free HD DVD's (that's right, FIFTEEN).

Essentially you are getting a 15 HD DVD collection for EUR 199.00 and a free player. If Blu-Ray could offer something similar, the "war" would be over.

I think I'm going to go and edit my basic spec blu-ray machine again.

[gandley]

Originally Posted by forumwriter

In a follow up to my post on a cheap Blu-Ray player, I was in MediaMarkt earlier today in Amsterdam.

There is a promotion running until the end of January for the Panasonic HD-E1 player. Now I realize that this is a past production end of run unit, but the offer is as follows.

For EUR 199.00

1 x Panasonic HD-E1
1 x Free HDMI Cable
15 x Free HD DVD's (that's right, FIFTEEN).

Essentially you are getting a 15 HD DVD collection for EUR 199.00 and a free player. If Blu-Ray could offer something similar, the "war" would be over.

I think I'm going to go and edit my basic spec blu-ray machine again.

PANASONIC???

[jason_grumpy]

Originally Posted by forumwriter

Unfortunately, in my opinion, the only way to accelerate the adoption of Blu-Ray as the HD standard of choice is to sell the baseline players at the same price or below their HD-DVD counterparts. The (average) consumer is not interested in fancy audio formats and connections. They just want a cheap way to get High Definition movies onto their glorious new HD TVs and toss some sort of surround sound through their existing sound system.

I propose the following. A $149 or less Blu-Ray profile 1.1 player that has the following, very basic, specs.
<snip>
Hopefully some manufacturers are listening.

Actually this is not the case at all. In fact, the price game was claimed time and time again by the red side of the HDM. If anything this shopping season has destroyed the price argument once and for-all. It doesn't work and has been proven in real life as this is what Toshiba did with 1080i players such as you suggested for $99.

Blu has hit the magical acceptance point of $299, and this cleared shelves like no other this Christmas, whereas the Toshiba players collected dust in all the stores I was looking at. I saw it myself this Christmas while shopping, when I saw stand alones and PS3's moving while the Toshiba boxes collected dust. These aren't just made up stories, and If i head to Best Buy this week I bet that same stack of players in particular is still there.

More importantly, CE's are actually making money on Blu players. This is a key factor in one of Blu's greatest strengths with CE support. Toshiba's slash and burn dumping of players has scared away all CE support and cut into their bottom line. The 40B Yen loss (~ 330 million) at Toshiba for that particular division was blamed mostly on HD-DVD. Selling players at a loss just to sell them is a very bad way of doing business. If anything, the price was too cheap for such a new technology and people have an instinct that this product is going the wayside soon in favor of Blu. All you have to do is see 10 stand alones from different companies, and 1 for HD-DVD and you see the picture.

CE companies for Blu are making a profit, and that is what is most important right now. A product that is about a year old should not drop from $1500 to $149 overnight. It needs to gradually decline. The price point of $299 - $800 is about right for this kind of technology in this stage. Next Christmas we might see some older players go for $199 as an entry model and the higher ends being $299-$500.

It's not just about acceptance or adoption, it's about balancing a price that will draw people in but at the same time make money for the company. Else, why sell them?

[forumwriter]

Originally Posted by jason_grumpy

Actually this is not the case at all. In fact, the price game was claimed time and time again by the red side of the HDM. If anything this shopping season has destroyed the price argument once and for-all. It doesn't work and has been proven in real life as this is what Toshiba did with 1080i players such as you suggested for $99.

I think we might have to agree to disagree on this issue. As a potential HD (High Definition) consumer, I can't afford to risk investing in a format that may or may not survive. But, as I have shown on the MediaMarkt offer, I can get an HD collection going and essentially a player for free. Very tempting to Joe Public.

I would like to go Blu-Ray, but the cost difference is staggering. In Europe to get the same deal, I would be spending almost EUR 500 (USD 700) more with little or no visual improvement as I (like many Europeans) have a native 720p(736) display. This is a lot of money for the low end (like me) consumer on a gamble that a format will survive.

The VP of merchandise Rick Souder from Crutchfield would appear to agree with me in this article http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6506504.html

My suggestions are ways for Blu-Ray to win. The sooner there is one format the better and I feel that an inexpensive baseline Blu-Ray product without all the fancy gizmos is the answer.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Go Blu

Plus there were "ALLOT" of PS3's under trees this year.
Even if the most conservative 30% started buying Blu thats pretty massive.

We probably will see something of that whenever this week's numbers are released.

From many accounts big box retailers were stripped of Blu-rays after Xmas. New PS/3 and standalone owners who got the Blu gift are probably a big reason for that.

Gary

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by forumwriter

I would like to go Blu-Ray, but the cost difference is staggering. In Europe to get the same deal, I would be spending almost EUR 500 (USD 700) more with little or no visual improvement as I (like many Europeans) have a native 720p(736) display. This is a lot of money for the low end (like me) consumer on a gamble that a format will survive.

Then you should probably wait. The real investment is in the SOFTWARE. If you purchase 50 titles over then next few years (two or so a month), how much is that?

Blu-ray is going to survive, the PS/3 sales and the utter domination of Blu-ray in Europe and Japan guarantee that. The only issue right now is whether HD DVD will survive too.

Gary

[forumwriter]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Then you should probably wait. The real investment is in the SOFTWARE. If you purchase 50 titles over then next few years (two or so a month), how much is that?

Blu-ray is going to survive, the PS/3 sales and the utter domination of Blu-ray in Europe and Japan guarantee that. The only issue right now is whether HD DVD will survive too.

Gary

I think that is a fair comment. But, like many, I just don't want to wait. I enjoy purchasing movies and I get a couple every month or so. My collection of DVD's is about 100 to date. The problem is that I don't want to continue buying outdated software (DVDs) only to have to repurchase them later in High Definition.

I feel the sentiment of my original post has become a little distorted and I would like to return to it. My suggestion is a low cost, no-frills, blu-ray player for the masses to end this format war once and for all.

[gandley]

Originally Posted by forumwriter

I think that is a fair comment. But, like many, I just don't want to wait. I enjoy purchasing movies and I get a couple every month or so. My collection of DVD's is about 100 to date. The problem is that I don't want to continue buying outdated software (DVDs) only to have to repurchase them later in High Definition.

I feel the sentiment of my original post has become a little distorted and I would like to return to it. My suggestion is a low cost, no-frills, blu-ray player for the masses to end this format war once and for all.

Kjack has already said that chinese BD players will most likly be at CES. cheap players are coming if thats your thing.

you know the player is a one off cost, import a Panasonic BDP30 and it works out pretty cheap to europe, i know quite a few guys are doing this in the UK, its then cheaper also to get the movie titles from the USA, thus a further saving.

Importing a 40GB PS3 also works out a pretty cheap deal.

[David Craig]

I think we have already won by outselling HD DVD for 52 straight weeks.

How quickly Toshiba gives up is anyone's guess but they are losing tons of money so it will happen.

Here's my premonition.

Sony will put the whole Bond collection on Blu-ray and flood stores with it, totally out of the Blu. Not pre-announced at all.

Sales will be 90% Blu that week.

[reider]

Originally Posted by forumwriter

In a follow up to my post on a cheap Blu-Ray player, I was in MediaMarkt earlier today in Amsterdam.

There is a promotion running until the end of January for the Panasonic HD-E1 player. Now I realize that this is a past production end of run unit, but the offer is as follows.

For EUR 199.00

1 x Panasonic HD-E1
1 x Free HDMI Cable
15 x Free HD DVD's (that's right, FIFTEEN).

Essentially you are getting a 15 HD DVD collection for EUR 199.00 and a free player. If Blu-Ray could offer something similar, the "war" would be over.

I think I'm going to go and edit my basic spec blu-ray machine again.

Panasonic?! You know some people here have a weak heart...you don't want any blood on your hands, so... please edit your post. Thanks.