Sony: Raised R&D Costs Related to PS4 Launch

[crystal_sun]

don't worry..i can guarantee that it won't be next year or the following year. I don't see much they have to offer that a PS4 is needed...hmmm...3D? already in PS3. hmmmm..more power? PS3 is fast enough....hmmm..blu-ray? already in PS3. It'll cost them a lot of money to start manufacturing PS4...so I doubt they want to start now when it's not necessary.

anyhow, I think we probably see PS4 pictures in 2014..and a release date in 2015.

Originally Posted by KamiAmaya

ugh, am I the only one who doesn't want to see a PS4 this year, or next?

[SkillzthatKillz]

I think it gets released holiday season of 2013 (that is if we all survive the end of the Mayan calendar ). Don't get me wrong the PS3 is a great system and has been my favorite that i've ever owned, but to think that it has sooo much untapped power left that it can be Sony's lead platform for the next 4-5 years is wishful thinking. Microsoft and (maybe) Nintendo will push out newer more powerful hardware and Sony won't want to be a year late to the party like they were this gen. As for hardware, I think Sony has finally listened to the devs and, at least if the NGP is any indication, will make something a lot easier to program for and therefore will drop the Cell. My question is, if they use a different type of processor can they still have backwards compatibility with PS3 games?

[ussrelativity]

I think they should continue on with the Cell. There will be some obvious improvements and upgrades.

I think that R & D will be less expensive this time around. Also, if they were to use BDXL, it would be even easier.

[partridge]

Nintendo won't want their new console to cost too much more than the PS3 or 360, the 3DS has already seen price cuts a month or so after release because it didn't sell in big enough numbers at its launch price.

I can't see Nintendo pushing games technology too hard because that makes it difficult for 3rd party developers to work on it and Nintendo NEED the 3rd party support this time. I think we'll see a Wii2 that is 100% backwards compatible with the Wii and just ahead of PS3 and 360 in overall specs. That will allow them to keep the price competitive, draw on the huge catalogue of Wii games as well as bring in the big 3rd party games like CoD, etc.

I don't think we'll see a revolutionary console in terms of graphics; I imagine it will offer all games at 1080p. Will they use blu-ray as a readily available large storage option? If so they can push it as an entertainment device too. Hard drive? maybe, some rumours are suggesting SSD though.

Price? About the same as PS3/360
Release? I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the shops for Christmas (in Japan).

I really can't imagine seeing a PS4 or a new Xbox any time before 2014, there's just no need and with the number of developers that folded in this generation I can't believe any publisher is keen to spend even more money developing their games for two new consoles. This is why I think the Wii2 will be a console to match PS3/360 as it makes it easier for the 3rd party guys to jump on board.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by Septimus Prime

I wonder if he means it's not up for debate because the project is already underway.

It could've been debated a month after he made the statement or less.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Snake_XRS

Max--Have you heard anything either way regarding the cell? I really hope they don't drop it, as it still has serious untapped power given a more powerful gpu and memory.

Sony will probably stick with Cell, it makes no sense to move to a new architecture now.

Originally Posted by Icemage

The Cell architecture is something of a dead-end development, actually. It's fairly powerful, given the right conditions, but it's a nightmare to write code for, and those "right conditions" don't happen all that often.

Part of the problem is that Sony underpowered the RSX graphics chip, which means some of the computational muscle of the Cell processor is instead being pushed into helping out the graphics processing.

A bigger problem, however, is that the applications for which the Cell SPUs are actually well-suited are fairly limited. You can do some sneaky workarounds within the PS3 memory architecture to make them do more than they would normally be limited to (seriously, 256KB of cache on each SPU doesn't go very far these days). Such workarounds are complex and degrade the overall power and utility of the SPUs, but you don't have a lot of choices on the PS3.

I'd sincerely hope that Sony backs off of the Cell architecture, or they may have a full-scale revolt on the part of developers.

You've got it the wrong way around, I expect, given how much developers have spent on Cell pipelines and development, that there would be a full scale revolt if Sony moved onto a new architecture.

That doesn't mean they will use the exact same processor, but I think it will have an extra PPU, a couple of extra SPUs and a slightly larger instruction set on the SPUs with out of order. The die size sacrifice is probably worth it now.

Originally Posted by Icemage

Anything multicore would be ok, but given that PS3 backward compatibility is probably to be expected, I'd lean closer to something like Intel's scrapped-but-maybe-usable-for-the-PS4 Larrabee multipurpose CPU design.

ARM has some neat designs out there, and of course I'm sure IBM would be just thrilled to provide yet another PowerPC-based design of some kind.

The Cell architecture, at its heart, has problems with bottlenecking and memory access. I definitely wouldn't want Sony to continue moving in that direction.

I think I've mentioned this somewhere else, but there is literally no chance of Larrabee being used in any next gen console. Literally zero. Intel promised much, much more than they could deliver. The only way I could see it is if Intel gave it away for free, and even then I'm not sure any of the console manufacturers would go in off the deep end for Intel.

The Cell architecture in itself doesn't have the problems you describe, the current Cell processor in the PS3 has these problems. IBM have already fixed most of them with the PowerXCell, and there is a reason they backed away from the "we're done with Cell" statement from a couple of years back.

Honestly, I would be very, very surprised if Sony go with another architecture. The amount of money they are spending on R&D doesn't really indicate they are either, to design a whole new processor architecture takes a lot more than ¥50bn, Cell as a project cost something like ¥210bn, and before that EE cost something like ¥130bn. Sony are spending very little money on R&D for the PS4, which to me, means they are reusing a lot of the PS3 fundamentals and a slightly modified off the shelf GPU. It allows them to get it out of the door quickly and cheaply. Basically the opposite of PS3 which I think everyone will agree was not an ideal launch by any means.

I would rather they do this and get a $399 console out into the market by the end of 2012 than get some new esoteric architecture that will cost $599 and be a year late to market. I think we will need to watch out in January for a new PS4 announcement just like we got the NGP announcement. The money is being spent this year, which means the result will come before the end of this financial year, they have to justify that ¥50bn increase to investors before the year is finished.

The market in 2012 will look like this IMO:

January - PS3, 360, Wii, 3DS and NGP
July - PS3, 360, Wii, 3DS and NGP
September - Café, PS3, 360, 3DS and NGP
November - PS4 (Japan only), Café, PS3, 360 and NGP

In 2013 RoW will get it, and Xbox 3 will probably launch towards the end of the year.

Sony missed the boat with PS3, I would be very, very surprised if they repeat the same mistakes.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by partridge

Nintendo won't want their new console to cost too much more than the PS3 or 360, the 3DS has already seen price cuts a month or so after release because it didn't sell in big enough numbers at its launch price.

I can't see Nintendo pushing games technology too hard because that makes it difficult for 3rd party developers to work on it and Nintendo NEED the 3rd party support this time. I think we'll see a Wii2 that is 100% backwards compatible with the Wii and just ahead of PS3 and 360 in overall specs. That will allow them to keep the price competitive, draw on the huge catalogue of Wii games as well as bring in the big 3rd party games like CoD, etc.

I don't think we'll see a revolutionary console in terms of graphics; I imagine it will offer all games at 1080p. Will they use blu-ray as a readily available large storage option? If so they can push it as an entertainment device too. Hard drive? maybe, some rumours are suggesting SSD though.

Price? About the same as PS3/360
Release? I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the shops for Christmas (in Japan).

I really can't imagine seeing a PS4 or a new Xbox any time before 2014, there's just no need and with the number of developers that folded in this generation I can't believe any publisher is keen to spend even more money developing their games for two new consoles. This is why I think the Wii2 will be a console to match PS3/360 as it makes it easier for the 3rd party guys to jump on board.

Café is due out H2 2012. Nintendo have already said it in their press releases. No way it is coming this year.

That Sony are spending ¥50bn on PS4 R&D indicates the console will be out sometime in 2012/13. Probably in 2012 for Japan...

[xtop]

Originally Posted by tarvis

Depends on how much proprietary tech they stick under the hood. If the NGP is any indication of what to expect from a PS4, as well as the price of Sony products across the board, I don't think it'll be cheap.

aside from the screen, there's nothing expensive in the ngp. so i'm not sure what you think they're being crazy about. besides, there's a rumor they're already doing cost cutting on it. half the ram

Originally Posted by crystal_sun

don't worry..i can guarantee that it won't be next year or the following year. I don't see much they have to offer that a PS4 is needed...hmmm...3D? already in PS3. hmmmm..more power? PS3 is fast enough....hmmm..blu-ray? already in PS3. It'll cost them a lot of money to start manufacturing PS4...so I doubt they want to start now when it's not necessary.

anyhow, I think we probably see PS4 pictures in 2014..and a release date in 2015.

joke post?

[partridge]

Originally Posted by Maximus

That Sony are spending ¥50bn on PS4 R&D indicates the console will be out sometime in 2012/13. Probably in 2012 for Japan...

You can't read a release date from a sum of money! That makes no sense at all.

I think 2014 is a sensible suggestion.

This years E3 is about the NGP which we know launches at the end of this year.

So at E3 2012 Sony formally confirm PS4 is on the way. But I can't see it getting a 2012 release as I can't believe they are that far into its development. The way the industry is these days, someone would be leaking info if there was anything really concrete going on. I believe Sony when they say work is under way, but at a very early stage.

So E3 2013 could be the actual reveal of the console itself with playable units at the show.

That leaves late 2013 or early 2014 as the most likely release point. Most likely staggered as is usual with consoles to ensure stocks for each region.

I just don't believe the world needs or wants another PlayStation or Xbox right now. Ninty have no choice, they know Wii sales have peaked hence the price drop to clear stocks. Sony and MS on the other hand have just released new peripherals for their machines to extend their lifespan. Of course they will look at options, at what a new console might offer, but the actual devices won't be in homes for another few years. In my opinion anyway

[Wingman1977]

Originally Posted by partridge

You can't read a release date from a sum of money! That makes no sense at all.

I think 2014 is a sensible suggestion.

This years E3 is about the NGP which we know launches at the end of this year.

So at E3 2012 Sony formally confirm PS4 is on the way. But I can't see it getting a 2012 release as I can't believe they are that far into its development. The way the industry is these days, someone would be leaking info if there was anything really concrete going on. I believe Sony when they say work is under way, but at a very early stage.

So E3 2013 could be the actual reveal of the console itself with playable units at the show.

That leaves late 2013 or early 2014 as the most likely release point. Most likely staggered as is usual with consoles to ensure stocks for each region.

I just don't believe the world needs or wants another PlayStation or Xbox right now. Ninty have no choice, they know Wii sales have peaked hence the price drop to clear stocks. Sony and MS on the other hand have just released new peripherals for their machines to extend their lifespan. Of course they will look at options, at what a new console might offer, but the actual devices won't be in homes for another few years. In my opinion anyway

Makes sense.

[binarymelon]

Originally Posted by partridge

You can't read a release date from a sum of money! That makes no sense at all.

I think 2014 is a sensible suggestion.

This years E3 is about the NGP which we know launches at the end of this year.

So at E3 2012 Sony formally confirm PS4 is on the way. But I can't see it getting a 2012 release as I can't believe they are that far into its development. The way the industry is these days, someone would be leaking info if there was anything really concrete going on. I believe Sony when they say work is under way, but at a very early stage.

So E3 2013 could be the actual reveal of the console itself with playable units at the show.

That leaves late 2013 or early 2014 as the most likely release point. Most likely staggered as is usual with consoles to ensure stocks for each region.

I just don't believe the world needs or wants another PlayStation or Xbox right now. Ninty have no choice, they know Wii sales have peaked hence the price drop to clear stocks. Sony and MS on the other hand have just released new peripherals for their machines to extend their lifespan. Of course they will look at options, at what a new console might offer, but the actual devices won't be in homes for another few years. In my opinion anyway

2014 is too late. The tech would be too far ahead of the other two consoles that game publishers wouldn't invest the time to make use of the console.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by partridge

You can't read a release date from a sum of money! That makes no sense at all.

I think 2014 is a sensible suggestion.

This years E3 is about the NGP which we know launches at the end of this year.

So at E3 2012 Sony formally confirm PS4 is on the way. But I can't see it getting a 2012 release as I can't believe they are that far into its development. The way the industry is these days, someone would be leaking info if there was anything really concrete going on. I believe Sony when they say work is under way, but at a very early stage.

So E3 2013 could be the actual reveal of the console itself with playable units at the show.

That leaves late 2013 or early 2014 as the most likely release point. Most likely staggered as is usual with consoles to ensure stocks for each region.

I just don't believe the world needs or wants another PlayStation or Xbox right now. Ninty have no choice, they know Wii sales have peaked hence the price drop to clear stocks. Sony and MS on the other hand have just released new peripherals for their machines to extend their lifespan. Of course they will look at options, at what a new console might offer, but the actual devices won't be in homes for another few years. In my opinion anyway

Sure you can. You just have to know how.

2014 is waaaay too late for PS4, Sony might as well give up if they are going to wait that long.

Don't forget we are about half way through 2011 and by my timetable it would be nearly two years until it launches in the west. That's not an insignificant amount of time.

Just like Sony announced NGP at a special Tokyo event, they will do the same for PS4, and just like NGP it will be out in Japan the same year it is announced with the west getting it early the following year.

Sony have to release in close proximity to Café or Nintendo will eat up third party support before they launch and it will hamper PS4 development from those third parties. The games will be limited by the weaker platform and PS4 will receive up-port rather than Café getting downports. It was different for PS2 and PS3, Sony were releasing from a position of massive strength, their previous consoles had sold over 100m each and they had over 80% market share, a virtual monopoly. This time they are launching from a much weaker position, more like PS1. They need to launch early and make it easy to develop for, just like NGP.

If you know where to look and how to look at stuff you would see that the NGP launch and specs follows Sony's PS1 strategy, probably their most successful strategy of all time. PS4 will follow a very similar route to PS1 and NGP. It will be like Ken Kutargi is back, but without the Krazy...

Also, no one is forcing you to buy a PS4 when it launches, I'm sure Sony will support PS3 until 2016, but to expect them to launch their successor two years behind schedule because some people don't feel like upgrading today is not a good, forward thinking strategy.

[partridge]

Time will tell. And who said anything about being forced to buy it? Where did that come from. I'm a launch day buyer of the PS3, when PS4 comes along I'll get it, no worries there, but I don't expect to see it this side of 2013.

I'm not expecting Project Cafe to be anything more than a slightly better PS3/360. I don't expect it to give Sony or MS anything to worry about. It's about Nintendo playing catch up now that Wii sales are declining. They've saturated that market, now they need to get back in the business of offering their gamers something more than Mario and Zelda; they need real 3rd party support.

They won't get that by expecting Activision or EA to plough even more millions into next gen versions of CoD, etc.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by partridge

Time will tell.

But I'm not expecting Project Cafe to be anything more than a slightly better PS3/360. I don't expect it to give Sony or MS anything to worry about. It's about Nintendo playing catch up now that Wii sales are declining. They've saturated that market, now they need to get back in the business of offering their gamers something more than Mario and Zelda; they need real 3rd party support.

They won't get that by expecting Activision or EA to plough even more millions into next gen versions of CoD, etc.

i'm confused, why do you think an under powered nintendo console isn't something to be scared of? and why on earth would sony give them a 2 year head start?

[Wingman1977]

All I'm going to say is that the successor to the ps3 won't see the shelves anywhere in 2012. I can see it in Japan in spring 2013 with a fall/holiday 2013 release in the US. Also, Sony has been working on it much longer than they are saying. MS has been working on the successor to the 360 since 2006.

[seigneur_rayden]

Originally Posted by KamiAmaya

ugh, am I the only one who doesn't want to see a PS4 this year, or next?

No, you are not.

[Wingman1977]

Originally Posted by KamiAmaya

ugh, am I the only one who doesn't want to see a PS4 this year, or next?

I wouldn't worry about it. We won't.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by Wingman1977

I wouldn't worry about it. We won't.

inside information?

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by partridge

Time will tell. And who said anything about being forced to buy it? Where did that come from. I'm a launch day buyer of the PS3, when PS4 comes along I'll get it, no worries there, but I don't expect to see it this side of 2013.

I'm not expecting Project Cafe to be anything more than a slightly better PS3/360. I don't expect it to give Sony or MS anything to worry about. It's about Nintendo playing catch up now that Wii sales are declining. They've saturated that market, now they need to get back in the business of offering their gamers something more than Mario and Zelda; they need real 3rd party support.

They won't get that by expecting Activision or EA to plough even more millions into next gen versions of CoD, etc.

You're talking about the games sector like it is static market and games will sell the same every year without any innovation. Seriously, they don't. CoD is something of an exception in that it has massive brand recognition, but look at Madden or PES, they were huge last gen, but this gen the sales have been declining because publishers release the same game with a new coat of paint every year.

Café is powerful and cheap enough that it will probably become the platform of choice for developers if sales are good and they see no movement on next gen from Sony/MS. That would be a disaster for both companies as a relatively powerful and cheap Nintendo console with full third party support and the stable of Nintendo games would be a formidable competitor. The Wii won this gen without third party support, now imagine how bad it would be for Sony/MS is they'd had it from the start of the gen.

This is why Nintendo are jumping next gen first, they saw the Wii crashed because they had no third party support, and launching a more powerful, easy to code for console early is the best way to get third party support. Sony and MS have to respond to this or they will be steamrolled.

[Wingman1977]

Originally Posted by Maximus

You're talking about the games sector like it is static market and games will sell the same every year without any innovation. Seriously, they don't. CoD is something of an exception in that it has massive brand recognition, but look at Madden or PES, they were huge last gen, but this gen the sales have been declining because publishers release the same game with a new coat of paint every year.

Café is powerful and cheap enough that it will probably become the platform of choice for developers if sales are good and they see no movement on next gen from Sony/MS. That would be a disaster for both companies as a relatively powerful and cheap Nintendo console with full third party support and the stable of Nintendo games would be a formidable competitor. The Wii won this gen without third party support, now imagine how bad it would be for Sony/MS is they'd had it from the start of the gen.

This is why Nintendo are jumping next gen first, they saw the Wii crashed because they had no third party support, and launching a more powerful, easy to code for console early is the best way to get third party support. Sony and MS have to respond to this or they will be steamrolled.

They will but that doesn't mean that we'll see their consoles in 2012.