How Long for Universal and Paramount Now?

[Joon]

It seems that Paramount has issued a small statement they are staying with HD-DVD. Don't know how much truth is behind this. How long do you think it will be before one or both jump ship. Can we see something as soon as tomorrow? Or will they hold out as long as they can and drag the war as long as they think they can?

[jermwhl]

Originally Posted by Joon

It seems that Paramount has issued a small statement they are staying with HD-DVD. Don't know how much truth is behind this. How long do you think it will be before one or both jump ship. Can we see something as soon as tomorrow? Or will they hold out as long as they can and drag the war as long as they think they can?

I think Uni will do something fairly quickly...probably before Q2. I'm not sure what paramount CAN do. They are bound by a contract. I'm sure there is a buy-out option, or some other out option they can exercise, but that will probably be a last resort. I can assure you they are definately kicking themselves in the asses though!

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by Joon

It seems that Paramount has issued a small statement they are staying with HD-DVD. Don't know how much truth is behind this. How long do you think it will be before one or both jump ship. Can we see something as soon as tomorrow? Or will they hold out as long as they can and drag the war as long as they think they can?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Universal annoucement at the BDA press conference... although the details may not be finalized yet. If not, then shortly after CES. Paramount... it's all in the details of their contract, whether or not Toshiba will release them if an out clause isn't automatically triggered by the other defections, and what the cost of breaching that contract would be if it came to that. Best case scenario... they have a press release ready to go as soon as Universal's goes out. Worst case... they stay until Jan. 2009 (or whenever that contract expires).

EDIT: I bet Paramount doesn't mind in the least that their Spielberg properties aren't covered by the contract right now, though. Indiana Jones boxset coming soon to Blu, anyone?

[darinp2]

I think it is hard to say, but if Universal and Paramount are concerned about BD50 replication, a good question for both of them would be whether they would prefer to be 2nd to last in line for those, or last in line.

I also wonder what GE/Universal would respond to a shareholder asking something like: Are you looking out for shareholder value in your HD DVD/Blu-ray decisions after the Warner announcement, or have you decided to try to save face for yourselves instead of facing reality?

--Darin

[jermwhl]

http://www.crn.com/digital-home/205209823

Don't know if anyone posted this link. I was going to start a new thread, but figured they forums are getting flooded with crap like this anyways.

[Oddiophile]

I would like to think allot of fence sitters will get off and buy Blu-Ray now, increasing player and BD disk sales at the same time HD DVD sales fall. The more profitable Blu-Ray becomes the more pressure Paramount and Universal will feel to jump. After all they are a business and making money is the idea, or at least that is what there shareholders would like to think.

[Joon]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

I would like to think allot of fence sitters will get off and buy Blu-Ray now, increasing player and BD disk sales at the same time HD DVD sales fall. The profitable Blu-Ray becomes the more pressure Paramount and Universal will feel to jump. After all they are a business and making money is the idea, or at least that is what there shareholders would like to think.

Well you can see on amazon that HD-DVD is crashing already. Their numbers have been in decline since the announcement. Not to mention ebay has been flooded with players and HD-DVD movies now. I just want this to end fast, and the blood is in the water. All it takes now is ONE of them to go neutral or exclusive to BD and that will be the final nail in the coffin. Warner put the previous ten in the coffin with their announcement.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by jermwhl

I can assure you they are definately kicking themselves in the asses though!

I'm not sure about that. They might make out fairly well. Get a bunch of money from Toshiba, then wait for Toshiba to come asking to get out of the contract (since what they are obligated to pay going forward no longer makes business sense for them).

On the other hand, as I alluded to, Paramount was saying that they were concerned about BD50 replication, and instead of negotiating a deal to move to Blu-ray in exchange for being near the front of the priority line for those, they now have put themselves in a position where they will probably be at the end of that line when they do come back to Blu-ray.

--Darin

[Oddiophile]

Originally Posted by Joon

Well you can see on amazon that HD-DVD is crashing already. Their numbers have been in decline since the announcement. Not to mention ebay has been flooded with players and HD-DVD movies now. I just want this to end fast, and the blood is in the water. All it takes now is ONE of them to go neutral or exclusive to BD and that will be the final nail in the coffin. Warner put the previous ten in the coffin with their announcement.

Yes I know, I just traded in 5 of my WB HD DVD's on Friday to Gamestop for $31.00, I am debating keeping my paramount and universal movies till they switch or just unloading them now wile I still can.

[JohnGalt]

Always examine the motivations of the parties: BR isn't light years ahead of HD-DVD in media sales over the last month or so. While the gap is going to grow rather quickly there's still a relatively large, in current terms, base of installed HD-DVD users who might just continue buying HD-DVDs for some time. With Universal and Paramount the lone holdouts their share of the HD-DVD pie is going to grow which makes it more, rather than less, likely that they may hold out for a bit; particularly if they have contractual obligations that would be difficult and/or expensive to dispose of.

That said I expect we'll hear positive news from them by late spring / early summer but I wouldn't hold my breath for another hammer to bookend CES.

[Lord_Stewie]

Originally Posted by jermwhl

I think Uni will do something fairly quickly...probably before Q2. I'm not sure what paramount CAN do. They are bound by a contract. I'm sure there is a buy-out option, or some other out option they can exercise, but that will probably be a last resort. I can assure you they are definately kicking themselves in the asses though!

I think paramount has the option to switch to Blu if they felt is necessary. in this case would be toshiba releasing Paramount/breaking the contract.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt

With Universal and Paramount the lone holdouts their share of the HD-DVD pie is going to grow which makes it more, rather than less, likely that they may hold out for a bit;

I respectfully disagree. Their percentage of the HD DVD pie will be higher, but the amount of pie they get will likely be smaller because so many people will be wary of buying discs for a format which looks like it is on life support (making the whole pie much smaller). If Warner had made their announcement a week before the third Bourne movie had been released on HD DVD, then sales for it would have likely been lower than they were. I'm sure that many people who bought that HD DVD thought that the format would be around for years.

The above thinking about the pie seems like the attach rate argument to me. The size of your piece of pie is more important than the percentage of the whole pie it represents. Just like it is more important how many discs will sell than how many discs per player will sell (otherwise Toshiba could just sell one player and 30 discs and say that every studio should now release on their format, even if they will never sell another disc, because their attach rate will be at least 30, by never selling a 2nd player).

I almost wish that Paramount or Universal had a big release coming up, just so we could see how poor the sales would be after this Warner announcement. If Warner was going to release the same title on both formats the same day I would expect the ratio to be big for Blu-ray. But sounds like it will be even bigger with Warner making HD DVD fans wait for some exclusive window to close.

--Darin

[Kendall]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt

Always examine the motivations of the parties: BR isn't light years ahead of HD-DVD in media sales over the last month or so. While the gap is going to grow rather quickly there's still a relatively large, in current terms, base of installed HD-DVD users who might just continue buying HD-DVDs for some time. With Universal and Paramount the lone holdouts their share of the HD-DVD pie is going to grow which makes it more, rather than less, likely that they may hold out for a bit; particularly if they have contractual obligations that would be difficult and/or expensive to dispose of.

That said I expect we'll hear positive news from them by late spring / early summer but I wouldn't hold my breath for another hammer to bookend CES.

I think we'll see the hammer come before the end of CES from the retail end, at least one big retailer. If retail starts backing out quickly, it seems like it would force studios to come along just as rapidly.

As for that pie - the problem I see is that not only will HD-DVD sales generally plummet going forward, DVD sales from the remaining HD-DVD exclusive studios will continue to be limpid as people hold off buying DVD's until there is a Blu-Ray option at hand. Personally I am even reluctant to buy existing Warner titles at this point in anticipation many will be remastered now. Going Blu-Ray for the studios remaining outside means that they get to pick up the missing part of the consumer equation that are starting to abandon DVD's, a trend that will now accelerate rapidly with more assurance that Blu-Ray has become the winning format.

[w_tanoto]

I am started to think para will switch over before Uni. They have the rights to switch its backing to blu on $150M agreement.

Universal, I don't see its going neutral so long as ken graffeo is there. sack him first. (see HD DVD press release)

[FailedEXE]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

I am started to think para will switch over before Uni. They have the rights to switch its backing to blu on $150M agreement.

Universal, I don't see its going neutral so long as ken graffeo is there. sack him first. (see HD DVD press release)

I can't believe this guy hasn't been fired yet. Out of the most delusional HD-DVD fanboys, he takes the cake, remember this?

http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...-blu-ray.phtml

The guy comes up with more fud ten anybody else. I wan't to hear what the employers have to say after Warner simply pulled the plug on supporting HD-DVD. Not this fool.

I can see Paramount Studios ripping up their contract sooner then Universal switching camps. As long as that idiot is in office.