'Super' Box Office Weekend 6/10 - 6/12

[MD-Blu]

Is this why Heather G wasn't in Hangover II?

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Foggy

The f**k is Judy Moody???

A children's-book franchise heroine. As Warner now does one children's-book franchise every doldrum-parts-of-summer where no one will notice.
(Last year it was Ramona and Beezus, with Diary of a Wimpy Kid before it, and...what, "Kit Kittredge: An American Girl" before that, or was it another Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants movie, not counting Percy Jackson?)

If you had KIDS, you'd know this. (I don't, but I work in children's books, and don't come off sounding like an illiterate idiot.)

[Blu Titan]

Super 8 is tracking between $25M - $29M, but only has a $50M budget to overcome.


super.jpg

Trying to debunk buzz in Hollywood that pre-release tracking is soft for J.J. Abrams' Super 8, Paramount says the $50 million-budgeted movie doesn't need a big opening weekend because it cost far less than a big studio tentpole.

Paramount has its job cut out for it in managing expectations.

Super 8, opening in theaters Friday, is one of the summer's more high-profile projects because of Abrams and Steven Spielberg, who produced the sci-fi alien pic, set in the late 1970s in a small Ohio town.

However, the studio has refrained from showing the creature at the center of the film in trailers or its ad campaign, hoping to build interest in the film among those curious to see its secret revealed. A similar strategy worked well with the Abrams-produced Cloverfield in 2008, but some are questioning whether more should have been shown with Super 8.

Studios typically call reporters late in the week to do box office setup, but Paramount responded to THR's questions early this week because of industry chatter that the film would not open on par with recent summer releases like X-Men: First Class or Thor and that it is tracking behind Warner Bros.' Green Lantern, which doesn't open until June 17.

The chatter is correct: Paramount estimates that Super 8 should gross $25 million to $30 million in its domestic debut. However, Paramount argues that other summer films cost three or four times more to make than Super 8; hence, Super 8 doesn't need to gross as much to be in the clear financially.

And it's a misconception to think that Super 8 will play to young moviegoers, at least initially, according to Paramount.

Super 8 -- Abrams' homage to the films of his childhood, a la Spielberg -- is tracking best among moviegoers over age 30, the demo that remembers such films as Spielberg's E.T: The Extra-Terrestrial or Close Encounters of the Third Kind.

As strange as it might seem, the two comps Paramount is using to gauge the film's success are True Grit and Universal's Bridesmaids.

Paramount's True Grit, which was a hit first among older adults, and then broadened out, opened to $24.8 million in December.

More recently, Bridesmaids, which also skewed older in its debut, grossed $26.2 million in its domestic launch (it's gone on to be a sleeper hit, grossing $107.2 million through Sunday). The R-rated female comedy cost $32 million to produce...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...-modest-195269

[Dragon Lee]

My prediction for this weekend:
1. Super 8 - $45-$55 million
2. X-Men - $30-$35 million

[Glassroots]

Got to go with Super 8.
It's a Spielberg film, his name alone draws fans to the theater.

[Blu Titan]

I think Super 8 will be picking up interest all the way through the weekend. Abrams directing and Spielberg producing guarantees ticket sales and the reviews have been positive.

[Aerodude73]

Trying to debunk buzz in Hollywood that pre-release tracking is soft for J.J. Abrams' Super 8, Paramount says the $50 million-budgeted movie doesn't need a big opening weekend because it cost far less than a big studio tentpole.

Paramount has its job cut out for it in managing expectations.

However, the studio has refrained from showing the creature at the center of the film in trailers or its ad campaign, hoping to build interest in the film among those curious to see its secret revealed. A similar strategy worked well with the Abrams-produced Cloverfield in 2008, but some are questioning whether more should have been shown with Super 8.

The chatter is correct: Paramount estimates that Super 8 should gross $25 million to $30 million in its domestic debut. However, Paramount argues that other summer films cost three or four times more to make than Super 8; hence, Super 8 doesn't need to gross as much to be in the clear financially.

To me, it looks like a serious preemptive strike at SPIN CONTROL on Paramounts' side, "in case" it doesn't do big numbers (Under $30M) this wk-end. They have a point yes, it doesn't need Huge #'s the 1st time out, but it appears they're really trying to curtail expectations Early so if it Does >$30-35M, then they can act all surprised.

[CYMBOL]

• Super 8 41 Mill (I think the older crowd with nostalgia will convince the younger folks they are missing out - so, I think this will do well. Also, I think women/girls will be more interested in this then X-Men)
• X-Men 37 Mill (Word of mouth will keep this from dropping too low)
• Kung Fu Panda 2 (still the only little kids movie out)
• Hang over 2 (I think everyone who has wanted to see this, has seen it for the most part.)

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Aerodude73

To me, it looks like a serious preemptive strike at SPIN CONTROL on Paramounts' side, "in case" it doesn't do big numbers (Under $30M) this wk-end. They have a point yes, it doesn't need Huge #'s the 1st time out, but it appears they're really trying to curtail expectations Early so if it Does >$30-35M, then they can act all surprised.

You are right...studios always try to manage the expectations for the movies and they always "paint positive picture" even if the first weekend's result is a bomb. Anyways, results for Tuesday:

1 X-MEN: FIRST CLASS $5,075,246

2 THE HANGOVER PART II $3,259,072

3 KUNG FU PANDA 2 $2,700,429

4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES $2,092,976

5 BRIDESMAIDS $1,722,210

6 THOR $550,679

7 FAST FIVE $347,005

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

[Chaotic]

Hangover is still going strong. i still need to see it.

[Aerodude73]

That's why they pay the PR folks good money.
SPIN SPIN SPIN !

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

You are right...studios always try to manage the expectations for the movies and they always "paint positive picture" even if the first weekend's result is a bomb. Anyways, results for Tuesday:



http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Good to see THOR is only $22M away from tripling its budget ($150M). I'd be highly surprised if they don't greenlight a Sequel soon.

[dcowboy7]

BOguru:

1. super8 32m
2. xmen 25m
3. hangover 15m.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by dcowboy7

BOguru:

1. super8 32m
2. xmen 25m
3. hangover 15m.

Titan :

Super 8 will come out on top with $35M, First Class $28M, and The Hangover II with $17M.

[Chaotic]

I hope X-men does well this weekend. i want a sequel.

[jvince]

I liked First Class alright, but if Super 8 isn't number one this week and the next, something's terribly wrong with moviegoers.

[Walts Ghost]

Originally Posted by jvince

I liked First Class alright, but if Super 8 isn't number one this week and the next, something's terribly wrong with moviegoers.

I have to agree. I want Super 8 to rock the box office this weekend. Such an incredible movie. My favorite of the year so far.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Walts Ghost

I have to agree. I want Super 8 to rock the box office this weekend. Such an incredible movie. My favorite of the year so far.

Good to hear that Walt. It really has my interest now and I'll be watching tomorrow morning.Hopefully, it will do +$40 million for the weekend...even if it falls short of that amount, I believe this movie could become the sleeper box office hit of the Summer .

[Walts Ghost]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Good to hear that Walt. It really has my interest now and I'll be watching tomorrow morning.Hopefully, it will do +$40 million for the weekend...even if it falls short of that amount, I believe this movie could become the sleeper box office hit of the Summer .

It definitely will I think. I think this and X-Men will have the longest legs this summer off of word of mouth.

My full review is in the Super 8 thread if you want to check it out.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Walts Ghost

It definitely will I think. I think this and X-Men will have the longest legs this summer off of word of mouth.

2010's comparable weekend totaled $144M led by a $55M from The Karate Kid which became an unexpected box office hit. Super 8 will not go over $45M (I don't think), but the overall weekend's box office will be very close to last year...probably a little higher.

[Col. Zombie]

I had to vote for Judy Moody, for obvious reasons. It's going to make more money than any moive this year. It has a bigger fanbase than any other moive in theaters now. It's has Academy Award worthy performances and storytelling. I can't believe I am one of only two who can see that.

[Show spoiler]