81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by JTK

http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=10385

^^ I love the understated title from some of these sites that have been pro HD-DVD all along in light of big news like 85-15 blow outs.

Yeah...sales are just now "starting to tip BD's way since the Warner news."

I can see the headline when Universal & Paramount go Blu-ray, retailers abandon HD DVD and Nielsen report sales of 95:5....

Blu-ray Edges Ahead As Format War Rumbles On

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by reider

Hey, you are getting all too serious about it...
I'll get then a little more serious also...

First, you should realize that the key term is sold here. Second, you should realize that every math/physics/economics variable have to be defined over a particular range of values. Sales is a variable that defined for all real numbers equal or greater then zero. So you can't sell negative amount of product.
Therefore 5,000 sold and 10,000 returned would be equal to zero sold and 5,000 returned. Now, Nielsen compares the number of BD's sold to the number of HD DVD's sold - hence 100/0 will be mathematically correct for this particular problem.

Sorry, no. 5000 sold and 10000 returned would be equal to 5000 sold and 10000 returned.

Under no circumstances would this represent zero sold.

You either use "sales" or "net sales", but what you've described above is neither.

It is perfectly ok for "net sales" to be negative.

Since the Neilson Numbers are not "sales", but "net sales", it is perfectly valid to have negative net sales, so 105/-5 would be perfectly legitimate as a ratio. Rather odd, but legitimate.

What you did is take some bastardized cross between sales and net sales.

[Joon]

Amazon's number keep plummeting for HD DVD even now they dropped the price of the A3 to $129. When is Toshiba going to wake up and pull the plug. Universal and Paramount need to end all this right now. Just end it. This is beyond embarrassing now.

[Lee Christie]

Originally Posted by Swede

The 85:15 BLU week is now official in the latest HMM 1/20/08, making the best week ever for blu-ray

Also, did you guys look at the individual dual format title ratios?

300 - 28:2, or 14:1 BLU
Blood diamond - 23:6, or 4:1 BLU
Good fellas - 21:6, or 3.5:1 BLU
Harry Potter: Goblet of fire - 22:1 BLU
Harry Potter: Prisoner of Azkaban - 21:1 BLU

Very nice

Which means that besides having a great exclusive in 3:10 to Yuma, blu-ray outsold hd dvd from 4:1 to as much as 22:1 on titles available on both formats

That doesn't necisarally represent how much we're winning. Those are all Warner titles. It stands to reason that HDUD fanboys would buy few (if any) Warner titles this week.

PLEASE don't read this is a comment in favour of HDUD - cause it's not. HDUD sucks and is currently bleeding to death. I'm just pointing ou why nuetral titles can't be used for a fair comparison at the moment.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

That doesn't necisarally represent how much we're winning. Those are all Warner titles. It stands to reason that HDUD fanboys would buy few (if any) Warner titles this week.

When Paramount bolted the sales of the Blu titles went up as people rushed to grab them before they disappeared.

Gary

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

That doesn't necisarally represent how much we're winning. Those are all Warner titles. It stands to reason that HDUD fanboys would buy few (if any) Warner titles this week.

I'm not sure what reason that stands up to.

Wouldn't they want to buy the Warner titles while they still can?

Wouldn't they want strong sales of the Warner titles to convince Warner to switch back?

The only real reason to stop buying Warner titles is because the writing is on the wall that HD DVD is a dead format, and so there is a good reason to stop buying any HD DVD titles.

I think people here are underestimating how many people are going to hear the news of Warner switching and decide to never buy an HD DVD title again. That is why it is going to have a big and permanent effect on the HD DVD sales numbers, and why all these people who thought there would be a slow, steady migration toward Blu-ray were incorrect.

While it might not be as high at 85:15 next week, as these numbers tend to bounce up and down all the time, I think that you're not going to ever see the HD DVD numbers get anywhere close to where they were just a week ago again.

[Razzy]

Originally Posted by Joon

Amazon's number keep plummeting for HD DVD even now they dropped the price of the A3 to $129. When is Toshiba going to wake up and pull the plug. Universal and Paramount need to end all this right now. Just end it. This is beyond embarrassing now.

Don't worry. If Paramount/Universal don't do it willingly retail stores will force their hand soon enough.

[Guinness7]

Originally Posted by Razzy

Don't worry. If Paramount/Universal don't do it willingly retail stores will force their hand soon enough.

Hopefully sooner than later.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

When Paramount bolted the sales of the Blu titles went up as people rushed to grab them before they disappeared.

Yep. that was certainly true for me.

I think this time around the Warner sale started a week earlier for HD DVD than it did for Blu. That said the roughly 3:1 YTD number covers both sales.

Going from roughly 2:1 for week 1 to 6:1 for week 2 is 300%. 'starting to tip BDs way' is somewhat of an understatement. In an election that would be 'landslide' material!

[docjan_uk]

Typically in elections, 60:40 would be considered a landslide...

[Razzy]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

When Paramount bolted the sales of the Blu titles went up as people rushed to grab them before they disappeared.

Gary

This is true. I snapped up the mission impossible trilogy just after the announcement. The difference between then & now though is the fact that while the Paramount news was hard to swallow, the vast majority of us knew Blu would still come our on top in the end. IMO, we were buying the Paramount titles knowing we wouldn't have a shot at them again for a while. If, at that time Blu was on its last legs, I probably would've just stopped buying Blu and succumbed to the dark side.

[Knight-Errant]

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

Typically in elections, 60:40 would be considered a landslide...

Ha good point there

[Lee Christie]

Originally Posted by Razzy

This is true. I snapped up the mission impossible trilogy just after the announcement.

The church of Scientology thanks you for your donation. (joke)


Well I'm not sure whether the HDUD fans are avoiding the Warner titles because they feel like boycotting, or whether they just don't want to throw any more money to a dieing format. I can't claim to understand what's going through thier heads.

I was saying is, if Warner had ditched Blu in favour of HDUD, then *I* would probably not have bought any Warner titles the following week, at least until I got over it. Maybe that's what they're thinking.

Maybe I'm wrong, lets see what next week has to offer. I'm hoping it stays above 80%, or even approches 90%.

[SavagePotato]

Blu ray must not get complacent now.

They need to put the pressure on more than ever, agressive price cuts and awareness ads.

DUD is moving as usual to confuse and trick the consumer with their focus on portraying dud players as the only players that upconvert and allow you to play your existing dvds.

Blu ray needs to work harder than ever to counter misinformation campaigns like this to crush dud fast now that they are down.

[Lee Christie]

Originally Posted by SavagePotato

Blu ray must not get complacent now.

They need to put the pressure on more than ever, agressive price cuts and awareness ads.

DUD is moving as usual to confuse and trick the consumer with their focus on portraying dud players as the only players that upconvert and allow you to play your existing dvds.

Blu ray needs to work harder than ever to counter misinformation campaigns like this to crush dud fast now that they are down.

You know to be honest, over here in the UK I haven't heard a peep out of HDUD in a long time. Maybe its different in the States. You have a point about not being complacent. What's with people buying HDUD players as cheap upscalers when there are SD DVD players which upscale now anyway?

[Joon]

Originally Posted by Razzy

Don't worry. If Paramount/Universal don't do it willingly retail stores will force their hand soon enough.

It looks like it as Wal*Mart looks to go blu-ray exclusive in store but you can still get HD DVD players online. When is enough enough for HD DVD, Paramount, and Universal. Almost 9 to 1 sales ratios, all small studios are dropping left and right, and they keep dropping prices yet their sales keep falling. Seriously, enough is enough.

[reider]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Sorry, no. 5000 sold and 10000 returned would be equal to 5000 sold and 10000 returned.

Under no circumstances would this represent zero sold.

You either use "sales" or "net sales", but what you've described above is neither.

It is perfectly ok for "net sales" to be negative.

Since the Neilson Numbers are not "sales", but "net sales", it is perfectly valid to have negative net sales, so 105/-5 would be perfectly legitimate as a ratio. Rather odd, but legitimate.

What you did is take some bastardized cross between sales and net sales.

Did my analysis offend you in any way?? Why are you getting angry, my friend?
"Net sales" is an interchangeable term with simply "sales" ("net" word can be omitted) as opposed to "gross [or total] sales" which is always spelled in full; all of them are usually imply an amount of money - which of course can be negative.
I was using the "adjusted net volume [or unit] sales" term - which can not be negative (unless you've worked for Enron ), since a company can recognize the revenue for the item that can be returned only after the "return rights" expired. (there is an escape clause here though, I'll skip it to avoid confusion)

Nielsen reports are for a very short and fixed period of time and they theoretically can get into a situation described in our example. In that case they are likely to do the following:
We have 5,000 debits (sales) and 10,000 credits (returns). 5,000 debits (sales) are matched with 5,000 credits (returns) = 0 credits (sales). 100/0 sales ratio reported. Then, the 5,000 remaining unmatched credits (returns) will be matched with debits (sales) that were reported for the previous reporting period and the previously reported ratio will show changed. Much like most of our monthly/quarterly economy figures that being reviewed and often adjusted for the previous reporting period when all of the information for that period becomes available.

IMO, it is ridiculous to assume that any financial organization would report 105/-5 weekly unit sales ratio.
You may think differently of course, but don't get upset.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Razzy

This is true. I snapped up the mission impossible trilogy just after the announcement. The difference between then & now though is the fact that while the Paramount news was hard to swallow, the vast majority of us knew Blu would still come our on top in the end. IMO, we were buying the Paramount titles knowing we wouldn't have a shot at them again for a while. If, at that time Blu was on its last legs, I probably would've just stopped buying Blu and succumbed to the dark side.

I also bought the MI Trilogy the week of the defection (Best Buy), and I still have not even opened it yet.. I remember that amazon had a sales that week and I purchased like 30 movies. Overall, that was a horrible week

[sj001]

The only movie I have of Paramount's is Babel, and the only reason I got that is because it came in the 5 free movies deal. Which I ended up getting late in September.

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by sj001

The only movie I have of Paramount's is Babel, and the only reason I got that is because it came in the 5 free movies deal. Which I ended up getting late in September.

I have a few Paramount titles but will not buy anything from them till it's in the right color