Blu-ray Wins Q1 2007

[nhaase]

1 mill is quite a LOT to ask for, what about 1.5 million for YTD by end of June? I think that's a pretty good one to shoot for.

[cdblu]

Originally Posted by nhaase

1 mill is quite a LOT to ask for, what about 1.5 million for YTD by end of June? I think that's a pretty good one to shoot for.

think about it. its currently close to 1.2 mil. and if sales continue at the rate of about 250,000 a month then the si numbers would b like 1.7 mil. 1.5million ytd sounds too easy.

[nhaase]

Yea

[0tim0]

If you consider the fact that only 1 million BDs have been sold, it's pretty clear the war is far from over. How much do you think it costs to fab a single disc? Less than $10, I'd say. So, for $10 M, they could replace all BDs ever sold with HD-DVD. That's not a lot of money for the big media types.

I think what will happen is what I've thought all along: it's all about dual-format players. I'll bet a year from now no one will make HD-DVD or BD players, they'll all be dual-format. The only losers will be those of us with single-format players -- and we'll just have to upgrade.

--t

[The Don]

Originally Posted by 0tim0

If you consider the fact that only 1 million BDs have been sold, it's pretty clear the war is far from over. How much do you think it costs to fab a single disc? Less than $10, I'd say. So, for $10 M, they could replace all BDs ever sold with HD-DVD. That's not a lot of money for the big media types.

I think what will happen is what I've thought all along: it's all about dual-format players. I'll bet a year from now no one will make HD-DVD or BD players, they'll all be dual-format. The only losers will be those of us with single-format players -- and we'll just have to upgrade.

--t

if we have to go through both formats staying until the next format comes....

..then HD-DVD wins...

they would eat plenty of dollars off BD, the superior technology which is also superiod in the recording format...

so then, the next gimmick will be a HD DVD/BD player/BD recorder.....where HD-DVD uses BD as a complete crutch to survive....

[HDTV1080P]

I was thinking the other day if combo players become the norm I guess combo recorders would also become the norm. The logical thing to do with a combo recorder is to record on 50GB discs instead of 30GB. Also the price of a combo recorder would be very high at first.

[nhaase]

0tim0, I agree w/ part of your argument. The war is far from over, but the momentum is w/ BD. It's selling faster than HD-DVD in that more have sold, and in less time, especially when you look at the year-to-date numbers.

The Q1 numbers do include March, where HD-DVD had nothing on sale until the 27th. While that plays into BD's hand, it's still not representative of what they had in the other months of that quarter, and what they have in the coming months. Still, that format continues to lose ground to Blu-ray.

It's not close to being over right now, BD needs to grow exceedingly more than HD-DVD in the coming months, especially by the holiday season. If BD can be completely dominant by Thanksgiving (at least 3:1 in sales for YTD, and w/ larger margins for the months leading up to Thanksgiving, player prices w/in $100), things will be looking extremely dark for HD-DVD. If it stays how it is now, then a single format prevailing may be a pipe dream. My thoughts.

[cdblu]

Originally Posted by 0tim0

If you consider the fact that only 1 million BDs have been sold, it's pretty clear the war is far from over. How much do you think it costs to fab a single disc? Less than $10, I'd say. So, for $10 M, they could replace all BDs ever sold with HD-DVD. That's not a lot of money for the big media types.

I think what will happen is what I've thought all along: it's all about dual-format players. I'll bet a year from now no one will make HD-DVD or BD players, they'll all be dual-format. The only losers will be those of us with single-format players -- and we'll just have to upgrade.

--t

from home media magazine: "In March, consumers bought 335,980 Blu-ray Discs and 119,570 HD DVDs."

bd will soon reach 500,000 discs per month sales. and by the holidays 1 million is looking realistic.

hd-ded will take way longer to achieve those kind of numbers.

[GasCat]

Good deal. They need to keep the foot to the floorboard.

I picked up a Wired mag today. One page had a Blu ad, one page had a HD-DVD ad, one page was a feature story for the "best attatchments on the XBOX360" Say what???!!!

I think there is a lot of back-rubbing go around right now.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by 0tim0

How much do you think it costs to fab a single disc? Less than $10, I'd say. So, for $10 M, they could replace all BDs ever sold with HD-DVD. That's not a lot of money for the big media types.
--t

True, but then they could replace all the HD-DVDs ever sold for even LESS!

[WriteSimply]

Cost of BD25 is less than US$2.



You can read the article here.


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