Home Entertainment Summit panels discuss Blu-ray, digital copy, downloads, etc.

[Fozziwig]

Excellent post Grubert.

Assuming average price per disc of $30 (MSRP), the target for 2008 is to sell approx. 35 million units (North America) in order to hit the $1 Billion sales mark.

To achieve that Blu-ray would need to be around 10% of DVD sales by Q4 on a consistent basis. Seems reasonable to me.

[WickyWoo]

I think people are starting to see the problem that non-physical media is seen as inherently worth much less by consumers than the physical.

One of the many reasons digital will dominate rental, but never take over the physical. Rental by its very nature is transitory and non-attachment

[Tok]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

I think people are starting to see the problem that non-physical media is seen as inherently worth much less by consumers than the physical.

One of the many reasons digital will dominate rental, but never take over the physical. Rental by its very nature is transitory and non-attachment

Exactly. There are too many reasons to list why consumers don't view a digital file's value at the same as a physical copy. Plus what happens when your digital server takes a dump. Ask users of Microsofts shutdown music service how they feel? Consumers should fear this end of physical media BS that is bombarded us in the media. When physical media is gone, fair use from a consumer standpoint will be gone forever.

I don't have a problem with digital downloads as long as it is not my only option. What I do have a problem with is guys like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates trying to convince people physical media is dead. My motto is always question the source. Ask yourself, do Jobs, Gates and other media companies have a vested interest in physical media going away? Yes, they own the technology and the pipes so their wallets get bigger everytime you click play.

Consumers must keep physical media alive as an option or we lose the few fair use protections we have left.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

I think people are starting to see the problem that non-physical media is seen as inherently worth much less by consumers than the physical.

One of the many reasons digital will dominate rental, but never take over the physical. Rental by its very nature is transitory and non-attachment

It's been said many ways, but you hit a homer, Wicky.

While some people relish the thought of a media server, yet another box, any smart person will wonder what happens when the hard drive eventually dies. IT IS INEVITABLE THAT IT WILL DIE.

Hey, TIVO is a great technology for recording HD content. But it has a ZERO backup contingency. As an IT guy, I find that scary. So does any smart consumer.

If stored and used properly, BD remains playable for decades after creation just like any vynil record.

[Krandor]

Originally Posted by tron3

Hey, TIVO is a great technology for recording HD content. But it has a ZERO backup contingency. As an IT guy, I find that scary. So does any smart consumer.

ummm... yes it does. You can transfer programs from tivo to your PC.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

Excellent post Grubert.

Assuming average price per disc of $30 (MSRP), the target for 2008 is to sell approx. 35 million units (North America) in order to hit the $1 Billion sales mark.

To achieve that Blu-ray would need to be around 10% of DVD sales by Q4 on a consistent basis. Seems reasonable to me.

35 Million units requires a HUGE 2nd half.

There were only 5-6 Million Blu Ray discs sold in the 1st four months of this year (extrapolating from info here: http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=201)

20-25 Million seems a more reasonable target (so I'll side with Paramount's view)

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by blu2

35 Million units requires a HUGE 2nd half.

There were only 5-6 Million Blu Ray discs sold in the 1st four months of this year (extrapolating from info here: http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=201)

20-25 Million seems a more reasonable target (so I'll side with Paramount's view)

Media Control Gfk says $888 million:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article...?desc=topstory

[MarekM]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Media Control Gfk says $888 million:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article...?desc=topstory

how many units is $888million ?

I still think that it will be well over 25mil units this year...
Q4 will explode ! with several million sellers

Marek

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by blu2

35 Million units requires a HUGE 2nd half.

There were only 5-6 Million Blu Ray discs sold in the 1st four months of this year (extrapolating from info here: http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=201)

20-25 Million seems a more reasonable target (so I'll side with Paramount's view)

20 million means that you think that roughly the same number of sales would occur in the first 1/3rd of the year as the last 1/3rd. If that happens, then anti-Blu pundits were right. Blu-Ray adoption is not taking off, and the format will probably be relegated to LD status.

I agree 35 million is a large number, but if Blu-Ray doesn't hit at least 30 million I'll be shocked.

[J_UNTITLED]

More (or the same) here from The Hollywood Reporter.