The Format War

[matts]

Originally Posted by xtop

i guess we just see things differently. what does the ps3 have to do with blu-ray vs hd dvd sales anyways? you seem to be basing the fact they've stayed at an even 2-1 lead on the ps3. why is it the ps3's fault for anything? if the survey a few weeks ago was correct, the majority of owners have no idea it plays blu-ray.

and blu-ray hasn't, imo, had any huge titles until recently, and in the coming weeks.

I'm not blaming the PS3. I think its because of the PS3 that blu-ray has a 2:1 lead. Without the PS3, I think things would be quite different. Equal or HD DVD in the lead.

I just think blu-ray should have taken a bigger lead and the effect of the PS3 hasn't continued. It blossomed when it was released and has simply helped to maintain the ratio, but not increase it at all.

All I know for sure is the next 2 months are going to be really interesting!

[xtop]

Originally Posted by matts

All I know for sure is the next 2 months are going to be really interesting!

i completely agree with that!

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by matts

Yeah, I plan on getting a receiver that can support it. Whether I can tell the difference or not really won't matter to me much as the movies sound great now. I think MOST consumers will feel this way.



Movie prices are pretty equal between the two. In fact, I think HD DVD may be more expensive in many cases due to combo's.

My simple point about the 2:1 ratio is that it pretty much started at that with the PS3 and during this year all Blu-ray has been able to do is maintain that. That certainly says something. If blu-ray was truly doing much better, it would be increasing this ratio.

I don't think its bad that blu-ray is leading sales 2:1 - What is bad is that it hasn't been able to increase this lead at all. Especially when you consider all of the other factors blu-ray had going for it. I think HD DVD has been waiting for this time of year to pull out all it can.

why do you think that is..the very simple answer is THE cost of the Movies in HD themselves..people esp. J6P does not want to pay $30.00+ for a movie no matter how much extra content it has. unless HDM get's to the price of DVD its fighting an up hill battle. people can buy that $200.00 player all they want but if they are only renting the HDM its not what studios's want to hear..they want the DISC's sold. in my OPINION that is exactly what Silverberg was talking about the consumer has not decided because right now both HD DVD and Blu-Ray both have player's out that are affordable right now . but which side is selling more DISC's.

the example if Toshiba sells through alot of those HD DVD players but still Blu-Ray still maintains their lead of 2 to 1 what does that say to Warner Bros...?

[J6P]

Originally Posted by matts

My simple point about the 2:1 ratio is that it pretty much started at that with the PS3 and during this year all Blu-ray has been able to do is maintain that. That certainly says something. If blu-ray was truly doing much better, it would be increasing this ratio.

Hey there,

Actually, that math is not quite on. You are correct in that the 2:1 weekly ratios started coming on after the PS3 shipped, and have been hovering around there in the US ever since. Sometimes a bit less, sometimes a lot more. But new people are still buying into both formats. So in order to keep scoring 2:1 ratios with a larger and larger pool of adopters on both sides, Blu-ray has to grow its base at a much greater rate than HD DVD is growing theirs. If they were just holding at the same adoption rates from the initial "PS3 boost", the ratios would be getting closer and closer, not holding at 2:1.

I could have explained that better, but that's how the math looks to me. The fact that Blu-ray continues to post ratios in the 2:1 range is far more impressive numerically the deeper we go into the year. It doesn't mean that HD DVD has stopped the bleeding, it means the opposite.

[AaronSCH]

Ironically, what many thought would have been a big plus for HD DVD may in fact be a thorn in its side. I am finding that people understand Blu-ray to be a totally new format while others think that HD DVD players are the same as upconverting DVD players. I have run into that thought process when shopping and with my own family. My cousin believed that there was no need to buy the more expensive HD DVD media because her player upconverted her standard DVDs to HD quality. There is definitely confusion out there.

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by AaronSCH

Ironically, what many thought would have been a big plus for HD DVD may in fact be a thorn in its side. I am finding that people understand Blu-ray to be a totally new format while others think that HD DVD players are the same as upconverting DVD players. I have run into that thought process when shopping and with my own family. My cousin believed that there was no need to buy the more expensive HD DVD media because her player upconverted her standard DVDs to HD quality. There is definitely confusion out there.

exactly:

and that is a big problem...with J6P ..HD DVD is trying to sell players at $200.00 to the consumer but also trying to sell those same consumer's a $30.00+ movie when one movie cost the same as a complete fill up or near a complete fill up of gas in their car...FOR A WEEK... for the people the majority of j6p shoppers who buy that player will just rent HD DVD's or NOT EVEN KNOW THAT HD DVD is not the same as standard DVD AND use their existing DVD's or new purchased DVD's upconverted to Near HD but think a standard DVD is HD..they will keep buying DVD's that are under $10.00

[matts]

Originally Posted by joeorc

why do you think that is..the very simple answer is THE cost of the Movies in HD themselves..people esp. J6P does not want to pay $30.00+ for a movie no matter how much extra content it has. unless HDM get's to the price of DVD its fighting an up hill battle. people can buy that $200.00 player all they want but if they are only renting the HDM its not what studios's want to hear..they want the DISC's sold. in my OPINION that is exactly what Silverberg was talking about the consumer has not decided because right now both HD DVD and Blu-Ray both have player's out that are affordable right now . but which side is selling more DISC's.

the example if Toshiba sells through alot of those HD DVD players but still Blu-Ray still maintains their lead of 2 to 1 what does that say to Warner Bros...?

The big problem is the stores. SRP is also a problem. If Amazon.com can sell titles at pretty reasonable prices, why can't the stores? Studios just need to drop SRP so that titles are still above DVD, but not twice the price as many titles are.

And if Toshiba sells a lot of players and it doesn't have an impact, that certainly says something. But I do think one thing that is more easily measured is how HD DVD player sales translate into HD DVD movie sales.

As far as renting - I agree its not as good as people buying, but it still does help. I'm sure there's some formula where x number of renters = 1 buyer.

Originally Posted by J6P

So in order to keep scoring 2:1 ratios with a larger and larger pool of adopters on both sides, Blu-ray has to grow its base at a much greater rate than HD DVD is growing theirs.

They simply have to keep growing 2x the amount of HD DVD.

I really do think the rest of this year will show what potential HD DVD has. And that will determine how things shape up next year.

Another thing people forget is that the number of titles sold is not the only thing to consider. Take last week for example. Blu-ray beat out HD DVD by a 51:49 margin. I think we can all agree that the BOGO offer certainly had a significant impact on this. So which format made more profit for the week? Without a question, HD DVD made more profit.

Profit is a big factor that the studios look at. I have no doubt that over the year, blu-ray has made more profit, but last week, I also have no doubt HD DVD made more profit. Most people saw blu-ray as "winning" the week, but I think the studios can see it for what it was. And there's really nothing wrong with HD DVD "winning" a week in profit considering the release of a huge title like transformers. But it does clearly show interest in the format. This is why I think things will continue on as they are.

As I said though, the next 2 months will be intresting and tell us a lot.

[br85]

Originally Posted by matts

Profit is a big factor that the studios look at. I have no doubt that over the year, blu-ray has made more profit, but last week, I also have no doubt HD DVD made more profit. Most people saw blu-ray as "winning" the week, but I think the studios can see it for what it was. And there's really nothing wrong with HD DVD "winning" a week in profit considering the release of a huge title like transformers. But it does clearly show interest in the format. This is why I think things will continue on as they are.

As I said though, the next 2 months will be intresting and tell us a lot.

...but don't forget to factor in the obvious: Toshiba's HD DVD have lost FAR more than the software profit they might have made to date just to RENT paramount for 18 months. The BOGOF might have lost the BDA a little money but nothing even CLOSE to the $50 million (I think that is more likely to be the real number, Toshiba haven't denied that one) that HD DVD spent renting paramount. HD DVD is still not making a profit. There is no way that they have even made back that amount even in takings (software), let alone actual software profits (remember they have to pay for the discs, the cases, and the content for each disc).

[Cream]

I wouldn't rely on the PS3. When DVD launched many people bought a PS2 for DVD playback. How many would buy a PS2 to play their DVDs now?

The PS3 gave blu-ray a huge boost over HD DVD. As time goes on the real battle will be fought between the players of both camps. Or it might. As time goes on it may be the dual players that get the sales and render the format war null and void.