Why last week's fire sale was a mistake...

[spam.curitiba]

Originally Posted by bazie

I don't think you can be so critical of this.

What was accomplished was
1) give a large increase in the standalone sales so people would have machines to buy movies for over the christmas season. And this worked with apparently 90k sold over teh weekend.

2) Drive awareness of the format. This also worked as the sale spread like wildfire all over the internet and from mouth to mouth...as is evidenced by the fact they pushed 90k sales in a weekend which is HUGE for the console market.

So now the prices are back up to the (previously record low) of 199.....people who are now aware of HDDVD and aware that it has come down in price will still look at 199 and see it as half the cost of a bluray player and buy it.

First off...just from reading forums it seems like alot of CURRENT hd-dvd owners went out and got a second player. So I can bet that at least 30 to 40 percent of those players sold if not even higher are to current hd dvd player owners.

I talked to a guy at best buy that has seen people pissed they didn't have anymore and weren't about to buy a hd dvd player at 199 when they can wait a little longer and get one for 99. He went on to say that even with the hd dvd firesale they still sell more blu players and movies.

It seems like PS3 owners are getting more aware of the blu-ray functionality in their game system and are now starting to pick up movies....if you don't believe me just look at the sales numbers on amazon for this week.

I am sorry but I will take 4million ps3 owners over 90k err shall I say 50k new cheap ass shopping hd dvd owners anyday. Plus those 50k new hd dvd owners will buy how many hd dvd's in a year at 30 bucks a pop? That's right maybe 1 or 2.

[Oblivion]

Originally Posted by JumboJoe

Don't give in to the deseatful jedi mind trick campaign of HD-DVD. They are trying to confuse our minds and befuddle us into disdoubt. The mind is where this battle will be won-- you must believe!!!

I believe in Sony and BlueRay!!!

Think positive thoughts and get positive results.

I agree with that; but it does concern me because for the first time this year I have started to see some 'HD DVD may win this' type articles Fringe writers of course but still worrying. Blu is the better format though so I'm confident we'll prevail in the end.

[JumboJoe]

Originally Posted by Oblivion

I agree with that; but it does concern me because for the first time this year I have started to see some 'HD DVD may win this' type articles Fringe writers of course but still worrying. Blu is the better format though so I'm confident we'll prevail in the end.

That's the spirit Oblivion!! Welcome back to the fight! <Here's me giving giving you a big old cyber hug buddy>

We need all the good warriors we can scrounge to kill HD-DVD. They're like cockroaches just when you think you got the last one another one crawls out of the woodworks.

BlueRay MUST prevail!!

Our quality of life depend on it.

[PatC.]

The firesale was reportedly driven by Wal-Mart, not Toshiba. As usual the Mart was trying to corner the market on low prices without regard to what it would do to the manufacturer or consumer. The rush was on and the other stores had to compete. There will always be a market for the lowest price but that will not decide the format war. The camps are totally entrenched and will end up like Windows and Mac with some preferring one over the other for a long time. Blu-ray seems to have more friends than hd so I don't see it going away no matter how many hd players are sold at $98.

[richteer]

Originally Posted by JumboJoe

Don't give in to the deseatful jedi mind trick campaign of HD-DVD. They are trying to confuse our minds and befuddle us into disdoubt. The mind is where this battle will be won-- you must believe!!!

I believe in Sony and BlueRay!!!

Agreed about the Jedi mind trick--but it's Blu-ray, not BlueRay!

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Originally Posted by Oblivion

Not sure I agree with that theory - Toshiba is the only major HD DVD producer but we and they know that and it isn't going to change overnight. What the firesale does do though is entrench the brand. The latest figures - 100,000 standalones and 210,000 xbox addons in the last month - will account for 1 million+ disks before Xmas assuming 3 or 4 disk attach rates. That's alot and will encourage Blu only producers to add HD DVD to their devices to ensure sales. And I think in a dual format world we'll lose; studios will be drawn to the (alleged) cheaper production of HD DUD.

OK, you need to check your figures: HD DVDs cost roughly the same to produce as Blu-ray discs. That's also why they're both comparably priced. Second, your assumed attach rate is ignoring what has already been stated repeatedly in this and other threads: J6P isn't going to want to shell out $25+ for a HD DVD when he's only paid $100 for the player. I agree with the general consensus that it was purchased more as an upconverting DVD player or a secondary player in the homes of those that already had one.

The numbers over the past year show the clear advantage that Blu-ray has in disc sales worldwide and stateside, and with the new 40GB PS3 available, there will be many more sales for the holiday season to bring up the number of Blu-ray players in the hands of consumers. Keep in mind that THOSE purchasers are used to paying $50+ for the software that accompanies their hardware, and $25 for Hi-Def movies isn't all that bad. I think that's one of the reasons why sales lead HD DVD so much...

Yes, there will be an increase in HD DVD purchases, but no where near what I think they're hoping for. And with the title releases on Blu between now and the rest of the year, I think you can expect to see the sales gap between the two to only widen.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Oblivion

Not sure I agree with that theory - Toshiba is the only major HD DVD producer but we and they know that and it isn't going to change overnight. What the firesale does do though is entrench the brand. The latest figures - 100,000 standalones and 210,000 xbox addons in the last month - will account for 1 million+ disks before Xmas assuming 3 or 4 disk attach rates. That's alot and will encourage Blu only producers to add HD DVD to their devices to ensure sales. And I think in a dual format world we'll lose; studios will be drawn to the (alleged) cheaper production of HD DUD.

210k 360 add-ons in a month? You are going to have to link to that because I really don't buy it.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Oblivion

Not sure I agree with that theory - Toshiba is the only major HD DVD producer but we and they know that and it isn't going to change overnight. What the firesale does do though is entrench the brand. The latest figures - 100,000 standalones and 210,000 xbox addons in the last month - will account for 1 million+ disks before Xmas assuming 3 or 4 disk attach rates. That's alot and will encourage Blu only producers to add HD DVD to their devices to ensure sales. And I think in a dual format world we'll lose; studios will be drawn to the (alleged) cheaper production of HD DUD.

Sorry, sounds like HD DVD propaganda.

(1) Inflated numbers with no backing
(2) Claims of big HD DVD disc sales coming
(3) Universal players are the future
(4) Studios with choose HD DVD

Gary

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Sorry, sounds like HD DVD propaganda.

(1) Inflated numbers with no backing
(2) Claims of big HD DVD disc sales coming
(3) Universal players are the future
(4) Studios with choose HD DVD

Gary

I agree. I am not seeing any of the BD exclusive studios going neutral. Disney wants region coding and won't get it with HD DVD and look at how they are pushing BD, its not like they are just sitting around watching to see who is going to sell more and then pick a side. They have already chosen their side. Fox isn't going to because they like the extra protection of BD+ and HD DVD doesn't offer that and they don't seem to be actively trying to find another copy protection method. And Sony and Lionsgate, well you can forget about them. Universal has had more reason to switch to neutral than any of these other studios, yet the absolutely deny the fact that they will ever release BDs. (Time will tell though)

[jkcheng122]

Originally Posted by Oblivion

Not sure I agree with that theory - Toshiba is the only major HD DVD producer but we and they know that and it isn't going to change overnight. What the firesale does do though is entrench the brand. The latest figures - 100,000 standalones and 210,000 xbox addons in the last month - will account for 1 million+ disks before Xmas assuming 3 or 4 disk attach rates. That's alot and will encourage Blu only producers to add HD DVD to their devices to ensure sales. And I think in a dual format world we'll lose; studios will be drawn to the (alleged) cheaper production of HD DUD.

i can't see other CEs joining Tosh in making HD DVD players to ensure sales for one reason, Tosh is losing money on the unit they're selling the most of. with a $200 player ($100 is only for one weekend) out there, other CEs making $400 players will not sell them. i don't know how long Tosh intends to keep this going. if they continue to sell at loss, they wont gain any CEs, if they bring prices back up to profitable margins, they won't sell players now that ppl are expecting much lower prices.

i'm hoping BD CEs can get a player out at $299, but it seems the cheapest player over the holidays is going to be at $399.

[Jonty]

Originally Posted by Oblivion

The latest figures - 100,000 standalones and 210,000 xbox addons in the last month - will account for 1 million+ disks before Xmas assuming 3 or 4 disk attach rates.

And I think this is where you are mistaken. The sale of 100,000 standalones is great, but there is no way they will maintain their attach rate.

How many of these players were bought as a second player or by a Blu supporter to go neutral. Also, many people looking to spend $100 on a player are typically not going to have the same spending habits as those willing to spend $300 on a player, when it come to movies...

[yakman]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

There is a bigger problem here than you realize...
Right now the only major manufacturer of HD-DVD players is... Toshiba.

Right now that may be a benefit for Toshiba as they don't have to answer to any other CE company regarding player prices. As some have pointed out game consoles only have one hardware manufacturer and it hasn't hurt Sony, Nintendo, or M$.

[sj001]

Any informed consumer, which many will be if they are going to be dropping a lot of money on a high-def TV, will really wonder what is up when they see that Blu-ray has numerous CE's, while HD-DVD, who do they have? Um, Toshiba, and Toshiba, and Toshiba, anything else, nope.

[sj001]

I know that Toshiba has a big stake in this, BUT, so do several other very powerful companies like Disney, Fox, Sony, Panasonic, Philips, and TDK. I don't think they would just let thing slip away. I think we are seeing the end of this format war.

[Uxi]

It's the same thing that keeps me from buying a Toshiba. Every time I think it's stable, they go and drop the price by a significant level. I would have experienced SEVERE buyer's remorse for paying $800 for an XA1. Hell, I almost paid $400 for one. Thank God I restrained myself because I would very much resent having faster, and more efficient newer models going for a quarter of the price less than a year later. I can appreciate depreciation of CE products as much as the next guy, but that's ridiculous.

I had previously set my mark at $150 shipped with some discs as my level to get an A2/D2/whatever since I've never been satisfied with the audio coming from the 360/add-on. Now, my mark is $100 and I want freebies with it.

[davidPS3]

Good point on the sale of the A2 and now what do they expect to do with the A3 coming out with the higher retail? Will the customer wait and see if this one will drop as well? Bottom line though is the software sales. Will customers be buying the hd dvd discs??

[jw]

Look at Ebay, Its loaded with people selling those Tosh A-2's from Wal-Mart. One person had a stack of 12 So I am not so sure that all these players have reached the consumers hands as of yet, but you will see a spike after christmas in hddvd sales I am sure. But hopefully the same will happen with the blu's as the 40 gb PS3's that have been purchased.

[almy]

If nothing else it boosts their players-sold numbers and they can use that figure to try and dissuade Warner from going Blu only and Universal from going neutral. I can just imagine them saying "Oh please, don't make any rash moves......just give us another six months..............."

[scook]

I wouldnt even call it a desperate move, I would call it pathetic. HD Dud knows there going down hard so they paniced and slipped up. Like people have said before when there losing money on players they have to make it back on disc sales BUT most of the people that are purchasing these are those HD Fanboys that already have players which will not increase disc sales or those consumers that know absolutely NOTHING about HD content which will result in 1 or two purchases and regular DVD sales again not helping Toshiba. The end is near I can promise you I will enjoy watching each and every blow that Blu will dish out as HD Dud slowly crumbles.

[bazie]

Originally Posted by scook

most of the people that are purchasing these are those HD Fanboys that already have players

I definitely don't agree with that. Sure some of the HDDVD fan boys will pick up a second one, but of the 90k i am sure teh vast majority of them will be either new customers, of HDDVD buying for family members...so....new customers.

Remember most people arn't like the select few that frequent HDM forums and spend all their money on home theater.