Why Blu-ray will win - by Ben Drawbaugh

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Because some of us realize that there "will" be other platform vendors. Liteon is making recorders. Acer is shipping laptops with the HD DVD player and recordable media is already available in SL and SL versions. The HD DVD Euro launch is coming and there will be new hardware there. All is well and I'm excited. I'm excited about Blu-Ray as well and I'd like to see more agressive pricing on 2nd generation hardware but long gone are the days where I thought Blu-Ray would run roughshod over HD DVD. They have fumbled enough to give HD DVD every advantage of playing for the win.

There have been no such announcements of these companies actually shipping stand alone HD DVD players manufactured by them. So far there is only one HD DVD player manufacturer announced. From announcement to acutal, full production shipping product is typically several months (unless they are only going to rebrand Toshiba's product) -- sometimes it is a year or more. If a second manufacturer does not ship a player before a year from now it will be a non issue.

The way I look at it... a year from now if a consumer walks into a CE store and looks at six to ten different brands on the shelf with some of those brands having two or three models -- all Blu-ray ---- then looks at the opposing shelf with one or two brands (and both obviously the same with just different logos).... which will s/he tend to look at more seriously? I'm betting he will more seriously look at the bank of several different players (thinking "These are the 'standard' players.") rather than look at the couple odd balls (thinking "These are the niche/oddities."). It's no different than the average person going into CompUSA and looking at the Mac versus the Windows machines. The average consumer is going to walk out with a Windows machine -- even if it is sometimes more expensive than a Mac.

[hmurchison]

The Euro HD DVD launch with new hardware will tell us a lot. We'll know if they plan to move away from Intel CPU and linux based design to a more svelte System on Chip (SoC) design.

There may not be another HD DVD vendor before 2007. That's fine with me as the Toshiba is priced competitive with ANY Blu-Ray player coming down the pike. It's 2007 and throughout that the platforms will jokey for position. By Xmas 2007 I'm thinking China may have players and a few other vendors. Frankly consumers don't buy into the herd mentality they buy on price and HD DVD will have to continue to set the pricing trend.

This is definitely going to be a see-saw battle. I'm going to enjoy it. Toshiba and Sony will have to compete for my continued business.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Because some of us realize that there "will" be other platform vendors. Liteon is making recorders. Acer is shipping laptops with the HD DVD player
and recordable media is already available in SL and SL versions.

Lite-On...Acer....are you kidding me? nobody even knows who they are.

The HD DVD Euro launch is coming and there will be new hardware there. All is well and I'm excited. I'm excited about Blu-Ray as well and I'd like to see more agressive pricing on 2nd generation hardware but long gone are the days where I thought Blu-Ray would run roughshod over HD DVD. They have fumbled enough to give HD DVD every advantage of playing for the win.

Last time I checked, I used NTSC and lived in the US. "there will be new hardware there" that doesn't mean here. I think you invest too much faith in the HDDVD side. If they had half a chance, and if the suppossed "SLAUGHTER" that HDDVD is doing to Blu Ray was infact reality..companies like LG & Samsung wouldn't have backed out on them already, and Disney & Fox wouldn't be throwing up the middle finger to HDDVD.

[ProvenFlipper]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Frankly consumers don't buy into the herd mentality they buy on price and HD DVD will have to continue to set the pricing trend.

I agree with this statement to a certain degree. For some odd reason, Sony is a major player in the decision of many consumers. I've witnessed many occasions that a customer was looking at plasma TVs and asked where the Sony plasmas are. When told that Sony doesn't make plasmas at the consumer level, all of a sudden the customer only wants to look at LCD TVs. The same has happened with the HD-DVD player, people have asked where the Sony is, when told Sony is putting out a Blu-ray player, the resopnse is normally, "I'll wait for that."

So yes, there are customers that shop on price, but there are tons of other customers out there that aren't buying into HD-DVD due to the fact that they only have one company so far making the equipment, and one exclusive movie studio.

There are tons of people out there that honestly can't tell the difference between an upconverted DVD and an actual HD-DVD or BD. Even out of the people that can tell the difference, many of them claim the difference isn't that drastic to them.

The format war is entertaining at this point, and there are going to be many different factors that may sway the war one way or another, but in my own personal opinion, HD-DVD is going to need more equipment on the shelves in order to sway many of the consumers.

[BTBuck1]

^ to add to provenflippers post, Alot of consumers want all of their equipment to "match" being that they want a sony dvd player with their sony lcd, etc.

I don't know how many times i've had to convince customers that it doesn't matter what brand dvd player or receiver to connect to their other brand equipment.

Brand matching is huge in this market, and with one brand (ok two with RCA) making HDDVD...this makes for alot of lost sales...not to mention it's pretty fugly in all but the XA1 form. and the XA1 is no beauty queen either.

[AV_Integrated]

Let's not forget PS3. It is perhaps the MOST argued about issue and definitely the one that I really have no idea about.

1. Will 6MM players actually be available by next Spring?
2. Will they sell out at the $499/$599 price points?
3. How will PS3 actually affect BD rentals and sales?

I know that I plan on getting one for BD playback primarily. If it is better than DVD (should be) and in the same league of quality as the Sony player, then that'll work for me until pricing comes way down.

I simply don't look at $500 players from EITHER camp as reasonable unless they give me a complete game system to go along with it. Think sub $300 and then we're talkin'! That'll be a good year plus from either camp. But, if Toshiba doesn't have any serious manufacturers to go along with them, I'm simply not interested. They aren't a bad company, but Macintosh will never reach Microsoft levels as long as they run the course on their own. Microsoft is arguably the worse product and now doesn't really even cost less for Windows based PCs... Yet, they have the commanding lead because they provide more software and are EVERYWHERE. Flood the market, give people more software (movies) and then work on priicing.

I just don't see Blu-ray losing this battle.

[takezo]

Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are going to make DVD players and titles even cheaper, when they become mainstream. DVD is going to still be the leader. Only Enthusiasts, Tech geeks, and people with tons of money will buy either format. DVD will only die once HD Movie players reach the < $200 price point. But as for the HD media, they will have tons of dumb people buying HD - Media for their standard DVD player, as they do today.

Blu-Ray has the edge, because PS3, PS3 is higly popular among techies and non-techies a like. Even a numb nut with a PS3 hooked up via RF to a 2nd hand SDTV from the 90's will buy Blu-Ray. Where as most non-techie Xbox 360 users may already be satisfied with the system they way it is, and may not get the HD-DVD add on. Thus stick with regular DVD.

It will be hard to totaly replace DVD, when players are in the < $40 range and DVDs that sell for <$20, some titles are less than $5. DVDs will not age like VHS, so if users don't F it up, it will last a life time. Plus the fools who try HD-Media on SDTV will not notice any diffrence from DVD, as SDTVs can't show the full resolution of DVD (480p).

[BTBuck1]

DVD will eventually be phased out aisle by aisle much in the same way Best Buy and others phased out VHS.

start with the special interest/and slower sellers and then move on to catalog titles. within 3-4 years the only dvd's on the shelves will be new releases, tv shows, & popular titles. everything else will have to be ordered. theres just not enough space in retailers stores for everything of everything. I'd say within 6-7 years all we'll have is HD optical formats to buy & be discussing the next format.

^ this all ofcourse is if BD & or HDDVD survive. (i think atleast one will)

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

Lite-On...Acer....are you kidding me? nobody even knows who they are

Lite-On is huge in the OEM space. Sony has OEM'd a few drives from them.

http://www.cdrinfo.com/Sections/Revi...rticleId=16894

Most of Sony's optical drives are OEM, from various manufacturers such as Optorite in the past, LiteOn mostly but also BenQ. This time, as it happened with the previous Sony drive that we reviewed a couple of months ago, the DW-G120A is an LiteOn OEM SHM-165P6S.

Acer is quickly becoming a leader world supplier of LCD, Notebookds and Desktops.

http://www.displaysearch.com/press/?id=292

Acer in 2005 was just behind Dell, Samsung and HP with LG pulling in at 5th. Consumers don't know who these Billion Dollar companies are because the bulk of their profits come from the OEM space. So...you've been buying Lite-On and LG drives for years and never knew it because there was a "Sony" or "HP" emblazoned on the front.

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

Last time I checked, I used NTSC and lived in the US. "there will be new hardware there" that doesn't mean here. I think you invest too much faith in the HDDVD side

I clearly prefaced my statement with discussion centered around the Euro launch giving us an indicator of how the hardware should evolve. It should point to where other 3rd party vendors will at hardwarewise as well. I haven't tried to correlate the Euro hardware with a North Am launch.

Originally Posted by ProvenFlipper

So yes, there are customers that shop on price, but there are tons of other customers out there that aren't buying into HD-DVD due to the fact that they only have one company so far making the equipment, and one exclusive movie studio

Yes I've often heard 'Sony's the best" from the more uniformed consumers who buy into expensive marketing campaigns part and parcel. There are Sony fans and I don't expect that to change. I do think that the studio issue is overblown. One major studio is HD DVD exclusive but there are smaller studios as well and that content is going to be important to some people.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

recordable media is already available in SL and SL versions.

Please post a pointer to this.

Seriously.

I have heard rumours but never seen anything for sale. I have been dying to see the relative cost of HD DVD blanks to BD blanks.

[ProvenFlipper]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Please post a pointer to this.

Seriously.

I have heard rumours but never seen anything for sale. I have been dying to see the relative cost of HD DVD blanks to BD blanks.

I was wondering the same thing. I've never seen the HD-DVD recordable media, let alone a recorder.

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Lite-On is huge in the OEM space. Sony has OEM'd a few drives from them.

Acer is quickly becoming a leader world supplier of LCD, Notebookds and Desktops.

Acer in 2005 was just behind Dell, Samsung and HP with LG pulling in at 5th. Consumers don't know who these Billion Dollar companies are because the bulk of their profits come from the OEM space. So...you've been buying Lite-On and LG drives for years and never knew it because there was a "Sony" or "HP" emblazoned on the front.

And both Lite-on and Acer will also be developing what kind of drives...yup Blu-ray drives as well, so I fail to see any type of advantage here.

Yes I've often heard 'Sony's the best" from the more uniformed consumers who buy into expensive marketing campaigns part and parcel. There are Sony fans and I don't expect that to change. I do think that the studio issue is overblown. One major studio is HD DVD exclusive but there are smaller studios as well and that content is going to be important to some people.

Keyword here is "some." Not most, but "some." And when you are trying to push a new format, you want MOST and then you deal with the "some" later.

Of course you think the studio issue is "overblown" since it clearly doesn't support your arguement.

Back in reality, the studio issue is one of a few keys that will in my opinion determine the victor, along of course, with the other issue you deem not a factor--storage.

[Dave]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Lite-On is huge in the OEM space.

Yes. Lite-On used to make the fastest and best CD-RW PC drives even better than Pioneer in the past... I have 52x32x52 CD drive and it rocks!

[Exercent]

hmurchison is clearly a one eyed HD-DVD supporter in the guise of "an undecided" imo, for me studio content is everything and HD-DVD doesnt have that. Also being a big PC user I will be steering towards Blu-ray with the larger discs. So everything being universal plays a big part.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by ProvenFlipper

I was wondering the same thing. I've never seen the HD-DVD recordable media, let alone a recorder.

HD-DVD 15GB MSRP $20
Blu-ray 25GB as low as $15
Blu-ray 25GB BD-RE as low as $19

Blu-ray has a much lower cost per GB than HD-DVD. The PC market belongs to Blu-ray and it will most likely stay that way!

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Exercent

hmurchison is clearly a one eyed HD-DVD supporter in the guise of "an undecided" imo, for me studio content is everything and HD-DVD doesnt have that. Also being a big PC user I will be steering towards Blu-ray with the larger discs. So everything being universal plays a big part.

I've always admitted to being a HD DVD lean but I'm a movie lover overall. I'll own both players that's a guarantee. Blu-Ray is a solid format I just feel the potential cost savings of HD DVD will have HD discs at today's DVD pricing much faster.

[ethan]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I just feel the potential cost savings of HD DVD will have HD discs at today's DVD pricing much faster.

Oh yes, I agree with you. It will be much less expensive in the end, when the retailers liquidate their remaining stock of hddvds In the "I feel" category of gratuitous opinions, I feel that it will happen in less than 2 years.

There are no indications nor informations anywhere suggesting hddvd can possibly have a lower disc price for the end user, quite the opposite. Price goes down with sales volume, and bluray clearly has the edge in the computer industry. That's simple logic.

[hmurchison]

2 years is a bit early but in two years we'll begin to see the writing on the wall so I partially agree with you.

HD DVD replication costs for 100K
http://www.proactionmedia.com/hd_dvd_replication.htm

15GB =$1.35
30GB= $1.55

Blu-Ray replication costs for 100K
http://www.proactionmedia.com/blu-ray_replication.htm

25GB=$1.49

The SL BD-ROM is quite affordable. I'm not sure if there are hidden costs but I was quite surprised. However for shorter programs the SL HD DVD is $14000 cheaper for a 100k order.

Clearly HD DVD is cheaper but BD-ROM SL has acquitted itself nicely in price as well from what I can see. The good news is Amir from Microsoft's Digital Media division has stated the latest VC-1 can kick up a nice HD image in as little as 9Mbps bitrate. This is going to be a boon for both formats as they can deliver SL discs for a majority of content and if advanced interactive features are desired the studios can choose the larger discs that offer more space for premium editions of movies.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The good news is Amir from Microsoft's Digital Media division has stated the latest VC-1 can kick up a nice HD image in as little as 9Mbps bitrate.

Personally this kind of news worries me.

The more they push this compression and argue that we lost nothing with each reduction in bitrate the less I believe we are seeing the details and such in the master.

You don't get something for nothing.

Maybe with work they can fit an HD movie on a floppy diskette...

[ethan]

Compression artefacts are very much visible with H264 or VC1 at their optimum bitrate. More so than Mpeg2 at it's optimum bitrate, but the optimum bitrate of mpeg2 is more than twice higher. H264 (and VC1) are optimized for high compression, but do not scale up well to very high bitrate. I don't want the studios to screwup the picture like they did with the early DVDs, the less compression the better.

Why is it that most people are happy to get uncompressed audio, and all of a sudden more compression in the picture is a good thing ? Oh. right "Microsoft said that..." Always been my favorite fallacy.