Top Grossing Studios for 2006

[AV_Integrated]

hmurchison, you are making an arguement that is far more shallow than what has been argued by Blu-ray supporters. With Blu-ray supporters it has been...

Wait: There will be better MPEG2 encodes
Wait: There will be AVC
Wait: There will be VC-1
All have already come true with quality matching that of HD-DVD normally.

Follow up statements...
Wait: There will be BD50 discs released
Wait: There will be 1080p/24 native output from players
Wait: There will be players from (long list of companies)
Wait: There will be more Blu-ray movies that HD-DVD movies
Wait: There will be far more blockbusters from Blu-ray available

The "ifs" from Blu-ray tend to be short, and people are specific about them:
IF PS3 is a good to excellent player, it could rock the format war
IF BD50 discs are plentiful, then BD quality could exceed that of HD-DVD
IF players come to market at a price comparible to the cheap Toshiba

Now, you are saying "I IMAGINE" instead of "IF". There are no true reports about any studios changing formats - just pure fanboi rumor. The idea that a studio would do so prior to the holiday season is almost ridiculous. The big PS3 "IF" plays heavily into that as it likely will affect the numbers greatly and how studios will respond.

But, right now - you need "IF: Disney" - "IF: Fox" - "IF: Lionsgate".
Blu-ray only needs: "IF: Universal"

I think there are a lot more ifs from the HD-DVD camp when it comes to studio support. Let's not even talk about CE support shall we?

[Jazar]

Good post AV. That's what I've been trying to say all along. Both sides have their hopes but the difference is most of the BR stuff is actually going to happen.

[hmurchison]

Man these tea leaves aren't hard to read.

1. Lionsgate cancels all BD releases for 2006 and states they are moving to VC1 and will resume movie shipments in 2007. Duh they didn't have to cancel 2006 releases unless they planned a larger update than just a codec.

2. Joe Iger from Disney has already stated he thought they'd eventually support both formats.

3. While it's only Amazon...sales of popular HD DVD titles dwarf Blu-Ray versions. Studios have taken notice.

Blu-Ray cannot live by studio support alone. HD DVD has a large advantage in HD DVD enabled laptops and more vendors will be getting in the game. I could be wrong but I doubt that I am. CES 2006 was supposed to be the Blu-Ray coming out party and HD DVD stole their thunder. CES 2007 will be more of the same...further penetration and clever strategy by the HD DVD Promotions Group.

I think Blu-Ray is a great technology and I'd be glad to own their product but it's not good enough to warrant paying more money for. They will need to reach price parity with HD DVD by end of next year for like products. Meaning I won't be comparing a PS3 to a STB HD DVD player.

[AV_Integrated]

You say things while ignoring this holiday season. It's as simple as that. If I wanted HD right this second, I would NOT buy a Samsung. I would seriously consider the Toshiba. But, since I am waiting a bit, I will more likely get a PS3. I would, in fact, get almost ANY other player by Blu-ray than the Samsung.

Do you think I'm alone in this? Serious videophiles will likely opt for the Pioneer or wait for the HDMI 1.3 version machines. The people who are worried of a format war, may opt for PS3, myself included, as it offers far more than any other player on the market does. There are many more who simply are unaware and will see the players from various companies as they come to market and may be interested.

But, don't both thinking for a second that any sales figures right now matter diddly. They don't. Studios are laughing at the numbers because DVD sales are still killing the HD formats. They also are aware that Blu-ray has a lot going on this holiday season, while HD-DVD has the X360 add-on, and that's about it.

Perhaps things will be the same after the holidays, but then again, perhaps not. One thing is for sure, the holidays will be a very telling time for the formats and now is way to early to think that studios are basing decisions on current volume and numbers. It's truly laughable.

There is no reason to believe that any studio wouldn't honestly hold out for better and more accurate authoring software from Blu-ray as well as more market penetration before investing the quite serious amounts of money necessary to release a movie on HD disc. Studios are hardly making money on BD or HD-DVD releases at this time.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I think Blu-Ray is a great technology and I'd be glad to own their product but it's not good enough to warrant paying more money for.

So much for your recent comments that due to your new promotion you'd be buying both players soon. I should have known you were stating that just to save face. You indeed are a troll aren't you? Repeatedly you ignore the upcoming holiday season and other facts when posting.

[hmurchison]

Chad

No way am I a troll. But with a pending engagement and wedding to plan I can't afford to pay a kilobuck for a player. I'd love to see a $500 dedicated BD player and honestly I think we will see this and you'll see the my tone improve. Right now it's show me the money time. I think the Sony/Pio/Panny BD players will find limited success simply because they are so expensive. I guess I"m just more price sensitive at this time. I've even scaled back my proposed DLP purchase in lie of a 30" direct view LG. Sigh

2007 is really where we see the wheat being to be seperated from the chaff.

[zombie]

Well Harold, all I know is that you are very outspoken about HD DVD being far better than BD on all forums but this one. At Blu-ray.com you put on a show IMO. I don't believe for a minute that you have any intentions of buying a BD player at any point.

[hmurchison]

It's Harrison actually.

Sure I'll buy one. I have a Mac and a PC for the very same reason. I like to have as many choices as possible.

Note..I'm not saying "Blu-Ray sucks" I'm just stating that from my PoV there's no clear cut victor in sight. I realize this is a Blu-Ray fan sight as well but any argument worth having is one worth defending with civility of course.

[zombie]

My apologies for the name thing. Couldn't remember it off hand.

[AV_Integrated]

You know, I think one of the biggest things Blu-ray has going against it right now is the 'RIGHT NOW' aspect.

Right now: More HD-DVD titles have been looking better
Right now: HD-DVD players are half the price (MSRP) of any stand alone BD player
Right now: HD-DVD sales are killing Blu-ray sales
Right now: There is only Toshiba vs. Samsung
Right now: Many players have been delayed by Blu-ray
Right now: More movies are available in the HD-DVD format
Right now: HD-DVD has sold more players than Blu-ray
Right now: The reviews for the Toshiba seem to be better than the Samsung
Right now: HD-DVD doesn't have region encoding
Right now: HD-DVD does have a usable Ethernet connection

In two years, not one of those things may still hold true or as exclusive for HD-DVD and within the next few months, many of those items may change dramatically. But, it doesn't change the line of conversation 'right now'. I am excited for Blu-ray to start flexing some muscles here to see whether it is real... or just flab.

[Jazar]

Also to add that Right Now HD DVD has more advanced interactive features while BD is still waiting for BD-J titles.

It really is a shame that the list is so long. Blu-Ray came out like they were the only kid in town with a crappy launch while HD DVD came out swinging hard and low. Personally the catch is that the victor of the format will be viable for a good 10 years so it's important that the one with the better potential prevails.

[Jeff®]

Originally Posted by AV_Integrated

I am excited for Blu-ray to start flexing some muscles here to see whether it is real... or just flab.

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Man these tea leaves aren't hard to read.

1. Lionsgate cancels all BD releases for 2006 and states they are moving to VC1 and will resume movie shipments in 2007. Duh they didn't have to cancel 2006 releases unless they planned a larger update than just a codec.

Maybe they have something more planned than just a codec change. Maybe they are going to properly remaster the films before they issue them in Blu-ray. Maybe the heard all the flack taken by studios over issuing films that were done off of sub standard masters and realized doing anything similar will only hurt them.

However, who are you to say that a codec change won't push them into 2007? Do you have ties deeply into them which gives you absolute knowledge of this? Otherwise it's pure opinion and speculation.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

2. Joe Iger from Disney has already stated he thought they'd eventually support both formats.

Iger stated he thought they might support both formats eventually. He did not state they would do so, neither did he state that he thought that they would have to for any reason. I took his statement as just musings and a CYA statement for the stock market -- similar to those disclamers at the bottom of every financial statement by a public company which states that they are "forward looking" statements and have no bearing on reality. Nothing more.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

3. While it's only Amazon...sales of popular HD DVD titles dwarf Blu-Ray versions. Studios have taken notice.

Yes it is only Amazon. You can draw any trend line you want through a single data point. Studios know this simple fact.

Now, if you'd have been able to legitimately say, "Sales of HD DVD titles dwarf sales of Blu-ray Disk titles at Amazon, WalMart, Best Buy, Blockbuster, and Hollywood Video." then you'd have a legitimate point. However, since you can't say that, you don't have a legitimate point.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Blu-Ray cannot live by studio support alone.

It's not. Not only does the BDA have significantly better studio support, it also has significantly better CE support, better gamer support and an expanding technology future.

There are many more companies which have formally announced they will be shipping BDA drives than there are companies which have announced they will ship HD DVD drives. Greater selection and competition always push the technology forward and are better for the consumer.

Then there's the PS3. Looking at the PS3 versus the Xbox add on HD DVD, I have to believe there will be more PS3s sold (with the integral BDA drive) than there will be add on HD DVD drives for the Xbox. While it has been hotly debated as to whether the PS3 will be used extensively by the owner to play HD movies it is definitely true that the interface of the Xbox does not support HDMI 1.3 while the PS3 does. I doubt this simple bit of "future proofing" will be lost on bleading edge and leading edge buys over the next six months.

Additionally, BD50 disks are coming before the end of the year with the flexibility to allow studios to do things that are not currently possible. (We've gone into this before.)

So, no, the BDA is not staking its future just on its significantly better studio support -- even though that is a major advantage no matter how you want to down play it.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

HD DVD has a large advantage in HD DVD enabled laptops and more vendors will be getting in the game. I could be wrong but I doubt that I am.

Please explain this "large advantage". Are 90%, or more, of the laptop vendors formally announcing they will ship HD DVD drives versus 50%, or less, of them formally announcing they will ship BDA compatible drives (like the advantage in studio support you seem to discount)? Or is the percentage distinction even more extreme so that even you would not belittle it? Seems to me that not even 50% of the laptop vendors in the world have committed to ship either format -- in their laptops. So that 90% is clearly out of the question.

The percentage of HD DVD or BDA disk compatible laptops currently shipping is tiny. I'd be very surprised if even 2 or 3 percent of all laptops currently being sold has either a HD DVD or BDA disk drive in them. When one or the other crosses the 20% line then there will be an issue. Not before.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

CES 2006 was supposed to be the Blu-Ray coming out party and HD DVD stole their thunder. CES 2007 will be more of the same...further penetration and clever strategy by the HD DVD Promotions Group.

2006 was supposed to be everyone's coming out party -- according to the die hard fanboys. I don't remember any of the major BDA players claiming -- before CES 2006 -- that they would announce shipping products at CES 2006. It was all fanboy hype. Unfortunately too many people bought into the hype and were disappointed when things did not go that way. (I put this into the same category as all the Apple fanboys and Apple specific rumor sites claiming Apple is going to announce some Earth shattering software/hardware at the next Apple event -- when Apple has made no such prediction. Then the industry beats up on Apple for not delivering what was only a fanboy's wet dream. It's the fanboys' own fault. -- Same with the BDA fanboys.)

I'll leave the speculation about CES 2007 to the fanboys -- but then since you're making pronouncements about CES 2007 maybe that includes you.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I think Blu-Ray is a great technology and I'd be glad to own their product but it's not good enough to warrant paying more money for. They will need to reach price parity with HD DVD by end of next year for like products. Meaning I won't be comparing a PS3 to a STB HD DVD player.

You won't pay more for better technology? So you own a Yugo do you?

So now your requirement has shifted to the BDA players need to ship a box that is as cheap as or cheaper than the cheapest Tosh player?

[thunderhawk]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I can't afford to pay a kilobuck for a player. I'd love to see a $500 dedicated BD player and honestly I think we will see this and you'll see the my tone improve. Right now it's show me the money time. I think the Sony/Pio/Panny BD players will find limited success simply because they are so expensive. I guess I"m just more price sensitive at this time.

I agree there. That's also the reason why (you guys probably noticed) I'm not that enthousiastic about BD anymore. I am pro BD, that's a fact, however... Price is a large factor when 'upgrading'.
Also, the Xbox360 addon will have way less impact then a build in player...
It's just... I haven't seen anything of HD DVD or BD yet, here in Europe (Belgium).
Plus, it's just unfair. HD DVDs PR campain on the internet totally weakens BDs reputation. And most is speculation that's going on in the debates...

Maybe the holiday season will shed some light on who will be the winner in the end (I still think BD will win, but I really get the feeling it'll be a long struggle).


By the way, I'll be visiting Berlin during 16 oct - 21 oct, I'll see if I can find some HD stuff in one of the largest (economic) metropoles of Europe.
Trivia: The so-called Sony Center is there.