Don't start celebrating... just yet

[bhampton]

Sbrooks1,

Egads man, That's narly. No one here wants to see stuff like that, gross.

-Brian

[SBrooks1]

Originally Posted by bhampton

Sbrooks1,

Egads man, That's narly. No one here wants to see stuff like that, gross.

I'm format neutral and just posted that since he was curious. No offense intended.

[atomik kinder]

I saw signs at Target this morning and most of their BOGO BDs were wiped out. You must remember that this is country wide and not just an Amazon sale and not just a buy day we planned, everyone was invited to this party and it lasts all week. Remember how some old titles pop up in the Nielsens occasionally and people were asking how they got there? (Blackhawk Down.) Best Buy had it on sale for $15. This might make a big impact on the sales this week. I don't expect any one title to knock out Transformers from getting the top spot, but I don't expect HD DVD to win the week either. Next week might be another story, but Disney has Meet the Robinsons coming out and there are still more new BD releases This week that people will pick up.

[davidPS3]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

This is true. If you look at www.eproductwars.com/dvd you can see that the sale has made a huge boost this week for BD, but HD is also showing some improvement from their sales of Transformers. It is not nearly as much, but it is likely going to last longer. Since the sale is not going to last that long, as soon as it is over, unless there is a big BD release, the sales of BD will drop while HD-DVD will likely continue the trend of going up for the transformers release for a week or 2 more.
However, I think this sale will boost the sales for BD overall and HD will haver a hard time catching up, especially if they are relying on this one release.
We can continue the trend for better sales and I hope this will be the start of the end of the war, but that might be too optimistic.

Look at the releases starting next week for Blu thru the end of the year. HD-DVD has had their time this week and may yet win the week. But it should be all down hill for them thru the end of the year unless something major happens to Blu. Just my opinion.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by SS316SRV

Sales numbers have little to do with Blu-ray winning. Blu-ray is a better format, that is why it is winning.

Yes, yes. We all read your signature line.

"..move your gear to Company L"
"Company L? But... they smell."
"Yes, Yes, we've all heard the chant." - The Simpsons.

I'll say it again, all these sales victories are near fruitless and empty wins because of the Paramount contract. We aren't "winning" just yet. More like stone walling HD-DVD.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

I saw signs at Target this morning and most of their BOGO BDs were wiped out. You must remember that this is country wide and not just an Amazon sale and not just a buy day we planned, everyone was invited to this party and it lasts all week. Remember how some old titles pop up in the Nielsens occasionally and people were asking how they got there? (Blackhawk Down.) Best Buy had it on sale for $15. This might make a big impact on the sales this week. I don't expect any one title to knock out Transformers from getting the top spot, but I don't expect HD DVD to win the week either. Next week might be another story, but Disney has Meet the Robinsons coming out and there are still more new BD releases This week that people will pick up.

Agree, people underestimate the number of Blu-ray owner's walking into B&M stores, buying movies on impulse. Owners who rarely, if ever visit these kinds of forums, not to mention PS3 'gamers' who will pick up a cheap movie.

[SS316SRV]

Originally Posted by tron3

Yes, yes. We all read your signature line.

"..move your gear to Company L"
"Company L? But... they smell."
"Yes, Yes, we've all heard the chant." - The Simpsons.

I'll say it again, all these sales victories are near fruitless and empty wins because of the Paramount contract. We aren't "winning" just yet. More like stone walling HD-DVD.

I am ok with it because of the Simpsons reference.

[Rike255]

Originally Posted by Steverhcp02

agreed, OP. However, the B&M stores are carrying the same sale as amazon and if we take the recent study that showed amazon as the 4th (or was it 5th) largest HDM retailer...we should also generally assume that the BOGO is having a large effect at the BB's and CC's as well

I thought it was second next to BestBuy? I read that here only a little while ago. Can't remember exactly though.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

While the BOGO sales are awesome and lots of units are being sold, don't start celebrating yet. It is still pretty much guaranteed that Transformers will generate a weekly win for HD DVD if Paramount managed to get enough copies out there. Amazon numbers are horrible at judging total volume. B&M stores are where most sales are taking place. The BOGO sales will surely dampen Transformers affect as in I now think BD will be in the 40's vs in the 30's with my previous guess.

It will be some major achievement if BD wins that week and then we can all celebrate, but wait until the numbers are in. Because if/when Transformers does pull out the win for HD DVD you can guarantee that they will be in full force spouting how even with tons of BOGO sales BD couldn't overcome. It's apples and oranges BS but you know they will love to shout it from the roof tops, especially if for two weeks BD guys have been cheering about how good the sale worked and constantly show winners on Amazon numbers only. In otherwords, don't give them ammo, or set yourself up for disappointment.

Just a word of caution. Besides, in 2 more weeks we start the largest lineup for Tier A movies that HDM has seen so far.

Agree with your idea about being cautious, but I disagreed with the doom & gloom talk of BD in the 30's or low 40's before any of these sales were announced and now I've even more sure. I did some rough math awhile back and I just don't see it happening like that. HD-DVD will have a hard time getting a 55/45 win and possibly won't even get to 50/50.

While I agree that Amazon is not the best indicator, it is an indicator that normally favors HD-DVD. Why is it that you think the BOGO sales at B&M spots wouldn't have similar impact?

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

This is true. If you look at www.eproductwars.com/dvd you can see that the sale has made a huge boost this week for BD, but HD is also showing some improvement from their sales of Transformers. It is not nearly as much, but it is likely going to last longer. Since the sale is not going to last that long, as soon as it is over, unless there is a big BD release, the sales of BD will drop while HD-DVD will likely continue the trend of going up for the transformers release for a week or 2 more.
However, I think this sale will boost the sales for BD overall and HD will haver a hard time catching up, especially if they are relying on this one release.
We can continue the trend for better sales and I hope this will be the start of the end of the war, but that might be too optimistic.

While I agree that the BOGO sales expire after a limited time, what makes you think that Transformers will have a lasting impact on HD-DVD volume? This has not been true for any movie on that format. Only Planet Earth, not a movie, has had solid sales over time... Knocked Up disappeared within a week.

I really, really think these forums are filled with geeks who think Transformers is the best movie of all time. Reality is most people thought it was pretty lame (see Rotten Tomatoes). It will have a high initial push but beyond that will fade fast. It isn't the type of movie to have lasting impact. Believe it.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by talbers23

we also need to know that hd dvd group may do a bogo sale before the years end and we could lose a week just on that.

I think that's pretty far off. They simply don't have the install base and steady runrate of sales to make a BOGO that will push enough volume to offset the steady stream of big new titles that BD has coming out through yearend.

[Rike255]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

While I agree that the BOGO sales expire after a limited time, what makes you think that Transformers will have a lasting impact on HD-DVD volume? This has not been true for any movie on that format. Only Planet Earth, not a movie, has had solid sales over time... Knocked Up disappeared within a week.

I really, really think these forums are filled with geeks who think Transformers is the best movie of all time. Reality is most people thought it was pretty lame (see Rotten Tomatoes). It will have a high initial push but beyond that will fade fast. It isn't the type of movie to have lasting impact. Believe it.

Thank you, everyone is making this movie out to be the movie to end all of them, in truth it wasn't all that great. Yes it did well in theaters, but I believe the only reason there's so much hype about it is because everyone keeps talking about it like this.
If Transformers hadn't existed everyone would be talking about how Shrek 3 is the HDDVD format saviour, no matter how ridiculous that sounds. People just want something to talk about always, with so little good news for the HDDVD group, why not blow this one out of proportion and make a story where there really isn't one?
Once everyone stops talking about this movie in the next week we can all get on with our lives and what really matters...Spiderman 3. Kidding.

[Rike255]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

I think that's pretty far off. They simply don't have the install base and steady runrate of sales to make a BOGO that will push enough volume to offset the steady stream of big new titles that BD has coming out through yearend.

Plus who's going to do it? Paramount won't, they've gotten their money already, it doesn't matter to them in the least who wins this format war. They could care less about anyone other then Paramount (not that that's a bad thing, it's just business).
Toshiba would, but they don't release movies, and there's only so much money one company is willing to lose for no reason.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Rike255

Thank you, everyone is making this movie out to be the movie to end all of them, in truth it wasn't all that great. Yes it did well in theaters, but I believe the only reason there's so much hype about it is because everyone keeps talking about it like this.
If Transformers hadn't existed everyone would be talking about how Shrek 3 is the HDDVD format saviour, no matter how ridiculous that sounds. People just want something to talk about always, with so little good news for the HDDVD group, why not blow this one out of proportion and make a story where there really isn't one?
Once everyone stops talking about this movie in the next week we can all get on with our lives and what really matters...Spiderman 3. Kidding.

And conversely, with so little to fear, it's natural that blu-ray fanatics find something to obsess over and TF is that obsession. I'm not saying Spidey 3 was a better movie at all, but the franchise is overwhelmingly more powerful.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

While the BOGO sales are awesome and lots of units are being sold, don't start celebrating yet. It is still pretty much guaranteed that Transformers will generate a weekly win for HD DVD if Paramount managed to get enough copies out there. Amazon numbers are horrible at judging total volume. B&M stores are where most sales are taking place. The BOGO sales will surely dampen Transformers affect as in I now think BD will be in the 40's vs in the 30's with my previous guess.

Agreed. I think it is highly unlikely BD will win the week. But the BOGO does cushion the situation somewhat.

But, keep in mind, the BOGO isn't just at Amazon. There are various BOGOs at B&M retailers too.

Gary

[Blu-Light]

Best buy and CC were cleaned out this afternoon. Lots of excellent titles were gone at both stores.

We picked up Monster House and SD. I had to order both pirates from Amazon today.

I think this sale is having a significant impact and will oinyl help our cause next Friday.

[Rike255]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

And conversely, with so little to fear, it's natural that blu-ray fanatics find something to obsess over and TF is that obsession. I'm not saying Spidey 3 was a better movie at all, but the franchise is overwhelmingly more powerful.

I suppose. Without Transformers what would we talk about? Good point. I hope our next obsession is one that is both interesting and important. Can't have everything though.

[pedigree]

yeah but think about it... how many people from this forum alone will go out and get more than one (if not several) compared to those in the HDDVD camp buying their one single? i dont know how many other people bought but i ordered 12 simply cuz its an amazing deal

[CptGreedle]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

While I agree that the BOGO sales expire after a limited time, what makes you think that Transformers will have a lasting impact on HD-DVD volume? This has not been true for any movie on that format. Only Planet Earth, not a movie, has had solid sales over time... Knocked Up disappeared within a week.

I really, really think these forums are filled with geeks who think Transformers is the best movie of all time. Reality is most people thought it was pretty lame (see Rotten Tomatoes). It will have a high initial push but beyond that will fade fast. It isn't the type of movie to have lasting impact. Believe it.

It's not that I think Transformers is the greatest movie. It is a good movie, and a fun movie, but there are TONS better than it. I think it might have enough of a following by geeks that it will last longer than dead end titles like Knocked Up which does not need a Hi Def release to be funny. In fact, Transformers is one of the few releases lately for HD-DVD that deserves HD, too bad it is getting the low end of the HD spectrum.
I just think that Transformers will have sales that will last more than one week.

[Proteus]

People keep forgetting the huge discrepancy between number of Blu-ray vs. HDDVD capable players in the market.

Realistically, the absolute _most_ TF could sell is less than 400k units _total_. That is huge by highdef standards and most certainly possible since HDDVD has had no other good movies released any time recently (basically, this is the only flick some people may like on the format for the last couple months and foreseeable future). So, is it possible for it to outsell 300 on Blu-ray? Yes. Is it likely? No.

All and all 300 has been the largest single release on either format so is a pretty good measure (Planet Earth is an anomaly of some kind). Granted TF has some more family appeal with it's non-R rating; however, that is probably pretty negligible at this point. It's all subjective.

I would expect Transformers to beat 300's numbers on HDDVD by about 15-25% tops. That still puts it well below many blockbusters on blu-ray and certainly not a contender that can slant the _entire tide of purchasing_ to HDDVD. I'm sorry, but all this FUD about TF is ridiculous. One movie, regardless of blockbuster size, does not matter when half a dozen blockbusters of the near same size are all becoming available on the other format (Blu-ray) that also has roughly 5x+ more format capable players in the market. If anything, it will make Ps3 owners even more aware that their machines can indeed play Blu-ray... well.

With the non-HD quality audio and extras on the TF HDDVD and other problems with Paramount/Dreamworks releases all that is happening is people seeing how inferior the HDDVD format actually is as it cannot accommodate these films properly in a true HD format. When PotC3, Rata, Spidey, etc., all come out with FULL HD PQ/AQ it will be very easy for the consumer to realize where the future is.

So, my point is... Just relax. It does not matter what TF does. What matters is what the numbers are come Dec. 31st and those numbers will be very much in favor of Blu-ray.