In time for the Holiday's, the HD-XA2

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by JTK

Definitely a factor. Maybe we're all correct? Maybe it's "all of the above?"

LOL. I think you just summed up my wordy post in four words!

[AV_Integrated]

Originally Posted by JTK

That's a big what if isn't it?

Yes, the potential is there, and that's about it. The BDA I feel needs to take a more active role as a cohesive unit in some regards. The existence of a HD-DVD spot at CEDIA and the LACK of a Blu-ray booth was either pure arrogance or pure stupidity - or both. I definitely call it as I see it and ignoring people who know the formats... pretending like I know nothing about either of them, HD-DVD came off much better than Blu-ray in presenting it's product. This is very significant for this type of show. Yet, it is one show and the next few months should be mind boggling if everything comes out as planned.

Originally Posted by JTK

If that PS3 makes it and its scheduled 400,000-500,000 PS3's ship and sold out by year's end...do those PS3's "count' as BD player sales in addition to being game console sales?

You can't possibly count all game consoles as a Blu-ray player. This isn't a set number, but I would guess that about 50% of all sales will go to homes where the parents won't look twice and the machines aren't even hooked up to HD displays. That leaves 50% hooked up to HD display, perhaps HALF of which will actually buy at least ONE BD movie. That's over 100,000 movies sold... at least. There will likely be at least 5% of sales that are like me - and purchasing the unit primarily for movie viewing. We will buy more than one movie for sure. Perhaps another 100,000 or so from us total. There will VERY likely be a spike in movie rentals in BD format that is directly tied to PS3.

So, while all PS3 sales will definitely not count, I think Universal and ALL other studios will watch the numbers as it correlates to the release of PS3 and will see sales spike, but not at a 100% adoption rate. Likely closer to 25% - but the spike will amount to 250,000+ additional players by years end. Keeping in mind that 500K is launch day, and more are expected by years end.

Not included in this is the release of the Panasonic, Pioneer, and Sony players. As well, perhaps, the release of the LG player. The LG player especially may come in at cheap HD-DVD pricing which would make it very interesting for sure.

[Rob Tomlin]

^ I agree.

There is little doubt that the PS3 will have some positive impact for BD. Just a question of how much.