What effect will the Super Bowl ad have on the numbers?

[firestar120]

Originally Posted by MasterXeus

I still think you're numbers are off.

I don't see HD-DVD will not win a week.... (HD-DVD has lost what 56-57 weeks in a row)
What movie is coming out in February that going to make support your claim?

Yea...maybe I'll have to edit again. With that many weeks in a row, then I don't see them even getting a 50/50 split!

[BLU for Blue]

I am Legend comes out on April 8th...You think no one for HD DVD will buy it?

[firestar120]

Originally Posted by BLU for Blue

I am Legend comes out on April 8th...You think no one for HD DVD will buy it?

That's why I put the numbers as I did, but with over a year of Blu leading the way, other statistics could pre-empt those numbers.

[jkcheng122]

barring announcement of studios switching to HD DVD on the ad itself, the ad wont do squat for HD DVD. they got what a 1% gain in SW sales after they further lowered their prices on the players?

with recent news of ps3 breaking even on units sold, toshiba now is the only player in the hdm game still subsidizing their players. the only thing they've ever had since inception outside of the paramount thing is dropping player prices more and more. it hasnt worked, it never will. the only thing hd dvd is doing now is preventing consumers from enjoying Univ and Para movies in hi-def with lossless audio.

how much longer can they keep this up losing money on players sold. and most buyers of hd dvd players are pretty much buying them as a compliment to their blu-ray players b/c they had to have those Univ and Para movies in HD.

numbers should still be in the 8x:1x this week. 2/5 has quite the number of good releases coming out. we may even see a bogo sale.

[-diVe-]

Originally Posted by BLU for Blue

I bought an HD DVD player for Transformers and Shrek the third. I also got both free along with 300 and Bourne Identity

Neutral people make me sick.

[firestar120]

I made yet another change for the third time in nearly an hour, but I think that they are starting to get more and more correct.

[cueman98]

Originally Posted by BLU for Blue

Gotta remember they have Beowulf and American Gangster coming out in back to back weeks

True if we want beowulf on blu, we'll have to import it from the U.K. in March.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Beowulf-Blu-...941664&sr=1-28

[jw]

I just quit feeding the troll...next

[cueman98]

Originally Posted by BLU for Blue

I am Legend comes out on April 8th...You think no one for HD DVD will buy it?

But more people will buy it on blu, I can almost guarantee that, based on past history with warner releases.

[firestar120]

Looking at what possibilities the commercial could be about, it could make or break one of the formats. Hopefully it will be nothing big.

[MasterXeus]

Originally Posted by firestar120

Looking at what possibilities the commercial could be about, it could make or break one of the formats. Hopefully it will be nothing big.

I'm sorry, but it's hard to follow your way of thinking that this One commercial is going to help HD-DVD

Here's some highlights
2007s Biggest HD-DVD titles didn't help HD-DVD win a week
2007 all the ads didn't help HD-DVD win a week
2007 firesale on players didn't help HD-dVD win a week
2008 WB,HBO,NewLine, etc.. left HD-DVD, didn't help at all.

Then your saying
2008 Superbowl AD - HD-DVD makes a came back!

Despite everything that happen so far. Plus, there's no big HD-DVD titles being release this week. You really think one ad is going to help HD-DVD?

[firestar120]

Originally Posted by MasterXeus

I'm sorry, but it's hard to follow your way of thinking that this One commercial is going to help HD-DVD

Here's some highlights
2007s Biggest HD-DVD titles didn't help HD-DVD win a week
2007 all the ads didn't help HD-DVD win a week
2007 firesale on players didn't help HD-dVD win a week
2008 WB,HBO,NewLine, etc.. left HD-DVD, didn't help at all.

Then your saying
2008 Superbowl AD - HD-DVD makes a came back!

Despite everything that happen so far. Plus, there's no big HD-DVD titles being release this week. You really think one ad is going to help HD-DVD?

I completely agree, MasterXeus. I don't think that one commercial will make a big difference (except for Toshiba, who will lose $2.7 million ). I don't think that it will make a come back at all. I just think that with a Super Bowl ad, two big movies coming out, and 800+ mil. people watching, it might get SOME gain. But very little.

[atomik kinder]

More likely than not, the commercial time was purchased before the Warner switch. Anyhow, unless the commercial is UNIQUE, HUMOROUS, or CLEVER, no one is going to remember it. That is why people watch the superbowl commercials. And that doesn't guarantee anything either. Just think in the past years, how many new companies used this to boost their business. Many of the no longer exist. I can't believe that people are worried about this. Its not like people are going to run out and buy and HD DVD player. If they haven't seen commercials for HD DVD or Blu-ray, I don't think this commercial is going to make up their minds for them.

[blindcat87]

On top of that, I thought originally that your post was on hardware sales. Since it is on software sales, there is something else to consider.

We have over a year of data that shows that increases in hardware sales for HD DVD does not lead to a signifigant increase in software sales. Look back at the aftermath of the first major price dump in October, and the Black Friday blowout. Even though they sold a record number of players, their margins in software sales didn't get any closer.

The Toshiba ad is specifically a hardware ad, so after over a year of watching the sales numbers, there is absolutely no reason to expect any bounce in player sales to translate to software. Especially since they are focusing on their players performance as upconverting DVD players. HD DVDs sell for a premium price just like BDs do, I don't know why Toshiba ever thought it was a wise plan to market a format with the price premium any new format will have to people who will only buy the cheapest hardware. If they don't jump until the hardware is around $100, then they aren't going to pay to own a movie until it drops below $10-15.

Keep in mind that their number of players sold the week after the WB announcement was 1,700 and change. The price cuts jumped them to 8,000 and change players sold the next week, but their software margin barely shifted and was still below 20%.

Chris

Originally Posted by firestar120

Wow... never thought about that... yea, if that's what the stats say, then you're right. Nobody will remember it for any MAJOR days, except for a few birthdays. After that, then nobody will care. Hey, maybe if they take a poll on which format the ad was on, most people will say Blu-ray!

[MasterXeus]

Originally Posted by firestar120

I completely agree, MasterXeus. I don't think that one commercial will make a big difference (except for Toshiba, who will lose $2.7 million ). I don't think that it will make a come back at all. I just think that with a Super Bowl ad, two big movies coming out, and 800+ mil. people watching, it might get SOME gain. But very little.

It may help a little, but I don't see a 54:46 as you're predicting. week ending on Jan. 27th it was 82:18

[Terjyn]

I truly believe that the commercial will help Blu-Ray. I'd bet more people who get their interest perked by the commercial will not remember specifics, and when they ask at the local Best Buy/whatever they will learn of Blu-Ray.

Sure, some people will buy HD-DVD, but I think it'll be eclipsed by those who go Blu.

[DeeChizzle]

Originally Posted by bosels11

The ads will do absolutely NOTHING at all - I have not once let a BS commercial sway my opininon on anything I have ever purchased. Only gullible naive people believe the ad hype.

Are you aware that the majority of the consumer population falls into the gullible and naive category. Why do you think millions of dollars are spent on advertising and marketing? Why do you think as well known as a company like Coca Cola is, they still invest millions of dollars into advertising and marketing. I highly doubt that you have never been influenced by an ad or commerical in your entire life. In fact even if you heard of a product by word of mouth or read about it in a review it all goes back to advertising.

[Mobe1969]

Seriously I believe that the superbowl adds will increase Blu-Ray sales.

My logic here?

They have some wam bam add interesting some new people in HD. These new people go along to their local electronics store to have a look. They ask the salesperson about that HDDVD stuff they saw during the superbowl. The salesmen says how great HD is, but HDDVD is a loosing format that isn't likely to be around much longer. There are only two movie studios supporting it. Sales figures are crap for HDDVD in the US. And if the salesman knows there stuff they will know that outside of the US HDDVD is pretty well dead on arrival. 96:4 in Japan, 95:5 in Australia, in the 80's in Europe. They are better off getting Blu Ray as more studios support it, and it is likely to win.

I can pretty well predct that it will result in more blu ray sales.

So thanks Toshiba for spreading the HD word.

[Slapper]

"What effect will the Super Bowl ad have on the numbers?"

None. But, it will induce uncontrollable laughter by many Blu supporters. Not a big fan of "Foosball" myself, but I'm considering watching the Super Bowl...ya know...just for laughs.

[Nerdkiller likes BD]

The problem I see with the ad, is that if any football jocks (like myself) watch it and go out and buy the player, it will have the same effect as to what happened after Christmas/Haunika/Quanza with a lot of players being returned due to a lack of movies, especially football titles like Remember the Titans or Gridiron Gang. It will be a complete flop and won't benifet to HD DVD, just like last years ad, it didn't overtake BD and will only raise BD awarness. HD can't win.