How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

[Canada]

Not this again! Sheesh

[Canada]

Originally Posted by P@t_Mtl

Totalt agree, everything on hard drive need to be backed up in case of failure. I can't see the disc formart going away any time soon.

the only way disks can get messed up is if they are left in the sun or you give them to a child to scatch. Well Blu ray is the fastest growing format even in the biggest resession in 30-40 years.

[chriharr]

A lot of people forget about the camcorder market too.

Now I know a lot more people have blu-ray players than HD camcorders here on this forum but this is also an important market too which will help stimulate blu-ray growth, and the fact that people can make AVCHD discs in one or two clicks and play the discs on their blu-ray players in 1080p is amazing.

when DVD was coming into a popular phase, you couldn't just chuck a video file onto a DVD data disc and play it on a DVD player, it had to be MPEG-2 and when DVD first became popular DVD authoring software was expensive and time consuming.

the world is getting easier, thanks to blu-ray.

People will notice in due time, they will catch on but not as fast as DVD did and the reason is simple, VHS was a tape, TAPE > Disc (that's a huge leap)

Disc > Disc (not the same) it is just an improved version really.

blu-ray (the name won't be easily understood)

e.g. DVD (Digital Video Disc or versatile disc) blu-ray disc ????? well it's just a name that is named after the laser that reads the disc, this is a marketing disaster unless they start naming it (Blu-ray video disc).

[DIY_HD]

I think we all agree that the longevity of any media format is difficult to predict. Someday TV screens will grow to fill a wall. That will require higher resolution. Multilayer BDs could probably provide enough storage and the higher bitrates to support such large screens.

All too often those who say they can't tell the difference between Blu-ray and DVD are viewing them from a distance that favors DVD resolution. How many people put their recliners in the middle of their living room to be closer to the TV?

The last VHS tape rolled off the production line in December of 2008. Yet, we will probably still see them around people's homes (and even occasionally in stores) for a while longer. I guess you could say that the coffin is nailed shut, but there is still something moving inside! Sony lost the first format war with its technically superior BetaMax being ousted by JVC's cheaper, better marketed VHS. Sony learned from that mistake and the superior format won out this time (Yea!).

The bottom line is that if you are waiting for the next best technology, especially in consumer electronics, you will never have anything. Yes, it's changing quickly, but I don't see Blu-ray dying anytime in the foreseeable future. Pop in a BD, kick back, and enjoy the show. It's going to be a long one.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by ckent22

I think they'll do more than you and others think IF and this is a big IF they can somehow capture the high bitrates and HD audio that Blu-ray can. But, the most attractive thing about downloads are that you don't have to have physical based media and worry about storage space. Some like that, but others don't.

The average person doesn't have enough movies to worry about storage space being an issue. I'm pushing 300 and I'm certainly not stressed about space. We've got a room basically dedicated to housing our 2k+ DVDs, so I know how it can be to worry for space, but the average person won't ever really hit that point. They still make books, they still make CDs. People don't download all of their music and books, why would you think people would want to have only own digital copies of movies?

With the price of hard drives lowering substantially daily, then it's not unrealistic to assume that downloads will become a major player. They may or may not take over Blu-ray or the HD market completely, but they will attract a lot of people and already are in the process of doing so.

The people who are currently being attracted are the ones doing it ILLEGALLY. I don't care what they do, just like I don't care about the people who download all of their MP3s illegally.

It'll be a very long time before infrastructure can even be in place to purchase high quality digital copies to own. For digital distribution, the best way to appeal is to hit the folks who would normally rent. The average person will be a lot more willing to pay-per-view over the internet than to buy a movie that they'd never "own" for "real".

Yeah, you've got a point, but upscaled DVDs are not Full HD. So, for the average consumer who is not educated on HD technology, why would they buy a Blu-ray player only to be told that you don't need to buy new movies and that you can keep your old ones. This is exactly why Blu-ray has not appealed to the masses yet. Because, you have toshiba and other players that are upscaling players, but they aren't full HD. The average consumer sees these and thinks that they are just as good if not close too Blu-ray quality.

This point can best be summed up as "people are stupid". I think it was this thread I talked about it, but basically people are stupid and they need to be educated. This much is obvioius.

Niche is the right word. Even though Blu-ray is getting this publicity, go to your local Best Buy who is considered the place to go for vast appeal and look at the number of Blu-ray disc compared to DVDs. DVDs are the major players and yes they have been around longer but still that doesn't change the fact that like I've been saying the average consumer doesn't understand HD technology must less has bought into it with their dollars. If most had, then business would not be selling analog converter boxes and they would not be selling DVDs anymore.

Just because something is technologically obsolete doesn't mean its not still marketable for economic reasons. People don't buy CRT TVs because they want to, they buy them because they're really cheap. And they're really cheap because they're technologically obsolete. But because people keep buying them, companies keep making them.

Also: I still stand that niche isn't the right word. It implies that it's a small group and that's all there is to it, such as laserdisc's users or perhaps DVD-A and SACD. There have been plenty of niche formats through the ages, and Blu-ray has higher market penetration than all of them, even at their peak. Would you have called DVD niche back in 2000? If so, where is the point where you'd decide that the "next big thing" is no longer niche?

You can certainly base predictions off of market shares, but downloading and piracy and the technological advancements in cpus and personal technology will prohibit IMO Blu-ray from ever becoming as successful as DVD. I consider Blu-ray as successful as DVD when there are no DVDs left on the shelves, and it becomes an antique.

You'll be waiting a very long time then. I don't think there is even anyone that would consider VHS to be "antique",and yet we can all agree that DVD has thoroughly replaced it.

A History of Violence was released on video in 2006 (guess what else was released in 2006...). It was the last movie released on VHS. This is nearly 10 years after DVD debuted. If Blu-ray plays out exactly like DVD did (which it almost certainly will not), the last movie to be released on DVD would be released in 2015. Is that the point in time you're looking for?

1/3 homes still leaves 2 out of 3 homes without anything HD related and that's a big problem. Until these prices come way down, then it will never achieve mass market appeal the way DVD did.

If the players can get prices down low enough and support increases enough, the studios can push BD on those reluctant to shift whether they have HDTVs or not. The same thing happened with DVD replacing VHS. There were plenty of people who didn't want to switch, but in time, studios just stopped doing new releases on VHS and people who wanted to keep checking out new movies were forced to take the dive.

And it's clear that the studios want it. Or, at least, folks like Disney and Fox and Sony seem to be readily on board for takeover.

Again, we can predict things until we're blue in the face (no pun intended), but at the same time, I think downloads are gonna pull their own with Blu-ray maybe not overcoming Blu-ray. That's not what I'm saying, but I am saying I think there will be a substantial market for both HD downloads and Blu-ray over time and that this will possibly prohibit Blu-ray from sharing the same success as DVD.

I just look at all other forms of media and see that the only one where digital has truly thrived is in music, and I justify that by its ease of illegal download and the portability people require of their music.

That, and I hate people arguing in favor of downloads when the potential advantage of not requiring physical storage can be easily shortchanged by the DRM issues and the idea of what would happen in the case of catastrophic harddrive failure.

Originally Posted by ckent22

Your statements aren't entirely correct at all. Anything technology related first and foremost can fail. Discs aren't an exception. Discs can fail over time just like Hard Drives.

The only way an optical disc fails is by misuse. Scratches and things of that nature. Data on other formats such as harddrives and flash drives are more volatile, flash drives especially.

The latest external Hard Drive I saw was a 2 TB Hard Drive and for the average consumer not film buff who buys everything, then a 2 TB Hard Drive will be more than useful to hold their collection.

The type of person you're referring to,would they stress about having a single shelf with a couple dozen movies on them? I don't think so. They'd probably be more stressed about their harddrive failing for no good reason and them losing the 12 movies they already paid for.

Let's be realistic and understand that home video sales do well, but only a small percentage of us have very large size collections. Something larger will need to be in place for film buffs who have very large collections and this will more than likely take a while and give Blu-ray or the next disc based media a decent life span. But, their life span won't be forever.

They already have servers for that. People rip DVDs and fill servers with them.

Originally Posted by jwbbud

You can get a 1TB MyBook for 119.00 at WM, that is .12/GB, I know thats not a flash drive however its external memory

Cost per GB on a harddrive isn't the problem here. It's the fact that flash drives are too small to provide a step above what Blu-ray can, and the much higher volatility of the format can very easily make any potential advancement in specs worthless.

Originally Posted by Grumpz

Although it's not a flash drive, it just supports the belief that storage is becoming so cheap, it could easily replace what I consider, are clumsy pc's of plastic.

It's not to say the .mkv files or 1080p will be replaced, but the way in which the data is delivered could will be.

I for one loved downloading the latest episodes of Lost, copying them to my jump drive, and plugging it into the usb slot on the front of the PS3. It was fantastic. Now of course I stream it, which takes care of a step.

I enjoy streaming things on my TV as well, but I'd never consider that form of delivery for ownership. I watch basically all the TV I watch streamed online, and I watch movies from time to time on Hulu. But if I were to OWN the TV shows or movies, I'd want to physically have them. I might be projecting my thoughts and desires onto all of humanity, but I'd like to think most other people would agree that single-instance watching works by digital delivery just fine, while purchased ownership does not.

[RWebb74]

6-8 years. I would say, "As long as DVD", but I don't think that is the case here. Technology is moving exponentially fast. In 10-12 years, I wouldn't be surprised to see "hard" media going by the way side altogether. I have been very anti-download and digital copy for movies, but I am coming around. Once the proper upgrades to cable systems, etc... are in place, and every device is connected to the internet, I think that is the way things will go. Don't get me wrong, with the way things are right now, I don't like it, but with improvements, maybe. Just remember, what seems inconceivable today in technology, is likely just around the corner. Think how amazing DVD was just ten years ago, imagine what we'll have in another ten years.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

At the rate it's going, not very long I don't see it growing to point where retailers can justify keeping it on their shelves for years to come.

My guess is it will head into a D-VHS like existence and eventually disappear. Replaced by a more advanced and improved technology.

Or maybe it will stick around like LaserDisc and cater the niche HD disc community.


Two things need to happen and happen quick for Blu-ray to succeed
1. Sub $100 Player
2. Sub $20 movies

Yeah, growing faster than DVD did is surely a sign of failure. Good call.

I can't believe people still believe this, but I guess some people have no idea whatsoever what format success looks like.

[ckent22]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

The average person doesn't have enough movies to worry about storage space being an issue. I'm pushing 300 and I'm certainly not stressed about space. We've got a room basically dedicated to housing our 2k+ DVDs, so I know how it can be to worry for space, but the average person won't ever really hit that point. They still make books, they still make CDs. People don't download all of their music and books, why would you think people would want to have only own digital copies of movies?

That's what I said. Some don't like the space that they take up. Others like to look at their collection. Why do I think they want to have digital copies? Because our world is going digital. Everywhere you look, digital is taking over. There will always be a market for hard copy books, but look at the new technology of an electronic book reader where you can download audio books to it. There's a market for both. People like new technology and digital.

The people who are currently being attracted are the ones doing it ILLEGALLY. I don't care what they do, just like I don't care about the people who download all of their MP3s illegally.

That's a very ignorant statement. There are plenty of ways that you can but obviously don't have to get downloads besides doing it illegally. iTunes, Netflix, etc. come to mind who has other competitors, Blockbuster has online downloads. All sorts of boxes/hard drives are offering downloading services. PS3 is even has a store for downloads online.

It'll be a very long time before infrastructure can even be in place to purchase high quality digital copies to own. For digital distribution, the best way to appeal is to hit the folks who would normally rent. The average person will be a lot more willing to pay-per-view over the internet than to buy a movie that they'd never "own" for "real".

I agree with some of this. But, when it comes to digital downloads depending on the studio it can cut out the third party seller like Best Buy. But, at the same time you could still have Netflix or Blockbuster that you still have to pay too. I don't agree with you that people would rather use pay per view. Downloads from the ones I've seen are already cheaper than disc based media, so it makes sense for a lot of people who don't want to spend 30 dollars on a movie to buy the cheaper downloads.

This point can best be summed up as "people are stupid". I think it was this thread I talked about it, but basically people are stupid and they need to be educated. This much is obvioius.

A lot of consumers are ignorant. Some people are stupid, and some aren't.

Just because something is technologically obsolete doesn't mean its not still marketable for economic reasons. People don't buy CRT TVs because they want to, they buy them because they're really cheap. And they're really cheap because they're technologically obsolete. But because people keep buying them, companies keep making them.

Yeah, I'm not quite sure what your point here is. It's why DVD is still on the shelves.

Also: I still stand that niche isn't the right word. It implies that it's a small group and that's all there is to it, such as laserdisc's users or perhaps DVD-A and SACD. There have been plenty of niche formats through the ages, and Blu-ray has higher market penetration than all of them, even at their peak. Would you have called DVD niche back in 2000? If so, where is the point where you'd decide that the "next big thing" is no longer niche?

I'm not sure you understand what niche means. Niche means it applies to a focus, targetable market. You've somehow managed to connect the word niche to laserdisc, DVD-A, and SACD. But, you fail to realize that with only 1 in 3 houses having some sort of HD technology and that doesn't mean that they have Blu-ray, then MOST households don't have Blu-ray or HD technology. Blu-ray, although successful, is still not a mass technology. It's a niche format. Just because it has high market pentration doesn't mean it's not niche. And also, what you fail to take into account, is that many people who don't have a Blu-ray player buy Blu-ray, but only because at some point in the future they know they will get a Blu-ray player and go Hi-Def.

At this point, Blu-ray is applied to a focused, targetable market - - the Hi-Def market. Once again, there would be no DVDs or HD converter boxes on store shelves if it wasn't niche.

You'll be waiting a very long time then. I don't think there is even anyone that would consider VHS to be "antique",and yet we can all agree that DVD has thoroughly replaced it.

VHS is technically an antique. I don't think we'll be waiting a long time at all.

A History of Violence was released on video in 2006 (guess what else was released in 2006...). It was the last movie released on VHS. This is nearly 10 years after DVD debuted. If Blu-ray plays out exactly like DVD did (which it almost certainly will not), the last movie to be released on DVD would be released in 2015. Is that the point in time you're looking for?

You're proving my point which is that people will always go for the cheaper product until convinced otherwise. The major mass market is not sold on Blu-ray and if not properly sold, Blu-ray won't take off the way DVD did. Downloads and Piracy are going to affect Blu-ray, and will keep it from sharing the same lifespan as DVD. That's my opinion - - I'm sorry you don't like it. But, to say that downloads won't be a major player is ridiculous.

If the players can get prices down low enough and support increases enough, the studios can push BD on those reluctant to shift whether they have HDTVs or not. The same thing happened with DVD replacing VHS. There were plenty of people who didn't want to switch, but in time, studios just stopped doing new releases on VHS and people who wanted to keep checking out new movies were forced to take the dive.

You've got a point here, but at the same time, it's still very difficult to convince the average consumer who can buy new releases for about 15 dollars on DVD and catalogue releases for less than 5 dollars in most stores. Until Blu-ray comes down in price, which we agree will help it, then it's not gonna be mainstream and only focused on a particular niche market.

And it's clear that the studios want it. Or, at least, folks like Disney and Fox and Sony seem to be readily on board for takeover.

They don't necessarily care about the product they are selling. They just care about the money they get from mine and yours pocket.

I just look at all other forms of media and see that the only one where digital has truly thrived is in music, and I justify that by its ease of illegal download and the portability people require of their music.

Well, you seem to be talking about illegal downloading a lot, but you are very ignorant or choose to ignore the legal aspects of downloading. Whichever one it is, I'm not sure, but iTunes makes a killing on downloads of movies and music. It's not just music. It's movies too.

That, and I hate people arguing in favor of downloads when the potential advantage of not requiring physical storage can be easily shortchanged by the DRM issues and the idea of what would happen in the case of catastrophic harddrive failure.

Easy there. No need to hate people who disagree with you. Have you seen the Digital Copies that come with Blu-ray? They handle that very well, and the DRM is intact. Also, I do believe that several measures will be put into place to keep downloads intact regardless of hard drive failure.

The only way an optical disc fails is by misuse. Scratches and things of that nature. Data on other formats such as harddrives and flash drives are more volatile, flash drives especially.

That's incorrect. As I've said, anything technologically related can fail whether it's a disc or a hard drive. It's not just by misuse. Some discs only have lifespans of two years or are guaranteed two years by their manufacturers. They don't last forever.

The type of person you're referring to,would they stress about having a single shelf with a couple dozen movies on them? I don't think so. They'd probably be more stressed about their harddrive failing for no good reason and them losing the 12 movies they already paid for.

Again, I believe measures will be put into place where if hard drive failure occurs, then you'll be able to download again without paying for it twice.

They already have servers for that. People rip DVDs and fill servers with them.

I'm talking about legally.

Cost per GB on a harddrive isn't the problem here. It's the fact that flash drives are too small to provide a step above what Blu-ray can, and the much higher volatility of the format can very easily make any potential advancement in specs worthless.

Do you honestly think that more memory is not going to be placed on HDs in the futures whether it is flash or portable HDs?

I enjoy streaming things on my TV as well, but I'd never consider that form of delivery for ownership. I watch basically all the TV I watch streamed online, and I watch movies from time to time on Hulu. But if I were to OWN the TV shows or movies, I'd want to physically have them. I might be projecting my thoughts and desires onto all of humanity, but I'd like to think most other people would agree that single-instance watching works by digital delivery just fine, while purchased ownership does not.

You should probably realize that there are several people who buy movies off iTunes, use Netlfix, Blockbuster, etc. for downloads. Does that make them wrong because they don't buy Blu-ray? Not necessarily. Just as with anything else, there will always be a market for different types of the same product. That's what I've been saying. There will be people who prefer disc based media, but at the same time, there will be people who prefer downloads. I feel as technology becomes better and as time goes by, then it's only a matter of time, before downloading affects Blu-rays sales substantially. You say it's a long time away. It might be, but it very well is more than likely going to happen. Downloading to this extent never was around during DVDs rise, so it's hard to say that Blu-ray will be as successful considering how it is a different time.

[Anthony P]

Well I did not BD was first introduce in the 5-6 years of DVD?

DVD came out in 1997 in US and 1996 in Japan, BD came out in 2006, a bit more then 5-6 years

It took BD another 3-4 to win a format war?

BD came out in mid 2006, the format war ended in early 2008, that makes it 1.5-2 years, BD is not yet 3 years old

[Grumpz]

Do people actually believe that the disk forms of media are indestructable unless scratched or melted?

Maybe it's only happened once, but my first copy of Xmas Vacation, which gets watched once a yr, only lasted 3 yrs. Completely flawless, no scratches, and no, I don't store it 1 foot from my furnace or in a microwace.

Cassette, VHS, Laserdisk all degrade with time. DVD's do as well. And for peronsal archiving purposes, I use TY media. Supposed to be some of the best media out there. I've made DVD's of my kids first 4 and 7 yrs, and had the disks suddenly stop working.

So to claim that BD won't have any type of rot issues at this point doesn't make sense. The technology is in it's infancy.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by ckent22

That's what I said. Some don't like the space that they take up. Others like to look at their collection. Why do I think they want to have digital copies? Because our world is going digital. Everywhere you look, digital is taking over. There will always be a market for hard copy books, but look at the new technology of an electronic book reader where you can download audio books to it. There's a market for both. People like new technology and digital.

ebooks have been around for ages and people still prefer the physical form. Just because one kind of media has found success in pure digital doesn't mean they all will or necessarily should.

That's a very ignorant statement. There are plenty of ways that you can but obviously don't have to get downloads besides doing it illegally. iTunes, Netflix, etc. come to mind who has other competitors, Blockbuster has online downloads. All sorts of boxes/hard drives are offering downloading services. PS3 is even has a store for downloads online.

Not a one of those services provide decent quality HD media digitally. Torrents however do provide decent quality HD media, often times being really good Blu-ray rips. People downloading stuff in HD are downloading it illegally or getting ripped off for subpar quality.

I agree with some of this. But, when it comes to digital downloads depending on the studio it can cut out the third party seller like Best Buy. But, at the same time you could still have Netflix or Blockbuster that you still have to pay too. I don't agree with you that people would rather use pay per view. Downloads from the ones I've seen are already cheaper than disc based media, so it makes sense for a lot of people who don't want to spend 30 dollars on a movie to buy the cheaper downloads.

Wait. What? Who spends 30 dollars on a single movie?

A lot of consumers are ignorant. Some people are stupid, and some aren't.

As a general rule, people are stupid and ignorant. Just think: average IQ is 100, so that means 50% of the population has an IQ under 100.

Yeah, I'm not quite sure what your point here is. It's why DVD is still on the shelves.

The point was that technically obsoleted technology can still be marketable for economic reasons. I'm not sure how that relates to this topic and frankly, I don't feel like going back and looking at the context in which I made that statement. Either way, it doesn't really matter.

I'm not sure you understand what niche means. Niche means it applies to a focus, targetable market.

I know what it means, but it's the implication that I'm against. To say "Blu-ray is niche" implies that Blu-ray won't get any better and it's stuck at its current market penetration, doomed to never become the main choice of the masses.

And don't tell me that implication is not seen. I'm sure you read the post earlier where the person compared Blu-ray to DVHS and said that Blu-ray could silently fizzle out in a few years.

VHS is technically an antique. I don't think we'll be waiting a long time at all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antique

"An antique (Latin: antiquus; old) is an old collectible item. It is collected or desirable because of its age, rarity, condition, utility, or other unique features. It is an object that represents a previous era in human society."

Is VHS desirable because of its age, rarity, condition, utility or other unique features? Seriously, the last movie on VHS was made in '06 and you really think the format is that old? Black tapes were still being up until '08 I think!

And before you say anything, stupid-ass collector's edition tapes from Disney and stuff don't count. They're collectible because they're Disney and rare, not because they're "antiques".

You're proving my point which is that people will always go for the cheaper product until convinced otherwise. The major mass market is not sold on Blu-ray and if not properly sold, Blu-ray won't take off the way DVD did.

Are we arguing that Blu-ray won't take off or that downloads won't overtake Blu-ray?

I'm aware of Blu-ray's potential pitfalls, but that doesn't mean that downloads are any more poised to be taken seriously by the masses either.

Downloads and Piracy are going to affect Blu-ray, and will keep it from sharing the same lifespan as DVD.

But conveniently a pure digital format WON'T also suffer from pirating?

That's my opinion - - I'm sorry you don't like it. But, to say that downloads won't be a major player is ridiculous.

Show me some evidence to suggest that downloads have any chance of getting their act together and being taken seriously. Cite information about PURCHASED downloaded MOVIES, not streamed movies, not downloaded music.

The burden of proof is on you. You're suggesting that the status quo is going to be turned on its head. Prove it.

You've got a point here, but at the same time, it's still very difficult to convince the average consumer who can buy new releases for about 15 dollars on DVD and catalogue releases for less than 5 dollars in most stores.

New release catalog titles don't hit 5 dollars until they've been out for a long time. For example, Howard the Duck just hit DVD for the first time a while long ago. Amazon still has it at 8 dollars.

Until Blu-ray comes down in price, which we agree will help it, then it's not gonna be mainstream and only focused on a particular niche market.

By the same logic, DVD would've never been able to win over VHS, because DVD had a similar period in its own history when DVD was much more expensive and VHS was super cheap and people were eating up the super cheap VHS.

They don't necessarily care about the product they are selling. They just care about the money they get from mine and yours pocket.

Right, and Blu-ray has higher profit margins and better securities in place against piracy.

Well, you seem to be talking about illegal downloading a lot, but you are very ignorant or choose to ignore the legal aspects of downloading. Whichever one it is, I'm not sure, but iTunes makes a killing on downloads of movies and music. It's not just music. It's movies too.

Throw me some numbers which are comparable to Blu-ray's market penetration then.

Easy there. No need to hate people who disagree with you. Have you seen the Digital Copies that come with Blu-ray?

You think those low resolution copies mean ANYTHING when considering the question of how will people enjoy HD media in the coming years?

And I guess my wording was sloppy, but I didn't mean to say that I hate people that argue that, but rather that I hate when people argue that.

They handle that very well, and the DRM is intact.

Good ol' DRM. Not allowing me to replace my copy if I need to. Not allowing me to let a friend borrow the movie. Not allowing me to pass ownership to someone else.

Also, I do believe that several measures will be put into place to keep downloads intact regardless of hard drive failure.

Well, they'd better get their asses on it then, because if they're going to knock Blu-ray out as provider of HD media, they better get a move on before Blu-ray has a chance to knock DVD out as overall video media.

That's incorrect. As I've said, anything technologically related can fail whether it's a disc or a hard drive. It's not just by misuse. Some discs only have lifespans of two years or are guaranteed two years by their manufacturers. They don't last forever.

lol

A CD is not going to fail if you take good care of it. Handle it properly, use it only as directed, don't microwave it, etc.

Again, I believe measures will be put into place where if hard drive failure occurs, then you'll be able to download again without paying for it twice.

Great, so when your harddrive fails you can have to deal with the annoyance of coming up with a list and proving that you've paid for them, pay a couple bucks per movie to the studio to cover the surcharges they'll hit you with, then pay even more to your ISP to cover the bandwidth overages you'll get from downloading a full collection of movies in full HD with uncompressed sound.

I'm talking about legally.

There is no such thing as a legal digital copy which compares to Blu-ray. Apple's "HD" movies are freaking garbage.

Do you honestly think that more memory is not going to be placed on HDs in the futures whether it is flash or portable HDs?

No, I admitted that I wouldn't be surprised to see a USB stick-style form of delivery in the future. If they gave ample reason for a new format like excellent 3D support, I could definitely see that happening. But USB stick movies is not the same as downloaded movies.

You should probably realize that there are several people who buy movies off iTunes, use Netlfix, Blockbuster, etc. for downloads.

Oh? Several? Well, there are millions currently enjoying Blu-ray. Last I checked, millions are more than "several".

Does that make them wrong because they don't buy Blu-ray? Not necessarily.

You're right. It just means that they're not getting quality HD media. Worse than buying DVD as far as I'm concerned; at least a person buying DVD is buying DVD because that's what their hardware supports. A computer can support full 1080p picture and uncompressed audio, and yet, there is no legitimate way to purchase digital copies of movies with that level of quality.

Just as with anything else, there will always be a market for different types of the same product. That's what I've been saying. There will be people who prefer disc based media, but at the same time, there will be people who prefer downloads.

I've never met anyone who would ACTIVELY prefer downloading enormous files than owning a Blu-ray, except those who download the stuff for free illegally. Perhaps they exist somewhere, but as with music, so long as the copy is quality downloaded movies tend to be illegal.

I feel as technology becomes better and as time goes by, then it's only a matter of time, before downloading affects Blu-rays sales substantially.

Why would you say this? Gut feeling with 0 evidence to support it? Because looking at numbers logically, Blu-ray is set to fall into DVD's place and digital downloads will fall into a niche (lol) of people who are tech savvy, but refuse to enjoy true quality HD material.

You say it's a long time away. It might be, but it very well is more than likely going to happen.

I'll concede this, but I can't see this happening any time in the next couple of decades at the very least.

Downloading to this extent never was around during DVDs rise, so it's hard to say that Blu-ray will be as successful considering how it is a different time.

Downloading has always been around, it's just been illegal.

And the difference of Blu-ray's success will be more due to the fact that plenty of people still don't have HD sets yet and won't want to upgrade to BD without a HD TV.

ps i apologize if there are any typos or anything not making sense. I don't feel like going back over this crap and checking for mistakes.

[Anthony P]

I think the issue is that everything that comes next must have a definite advantage in something important or else they don't take over.
- Tapes had recordability but lower quality, so they did not replace records
- CDs had better quality , less problems and no deterioration, so replaced records/tapes
- DVD, had more convenience, widescreen, 5.1 so replaced VHS
- BD, better video, better audio, 7.1, better features so most likely to replace DVD

what will be next and when? hard to say. The only thing for certain, it needs to offer a big advantage over the tech when it comes out. And I think better audio is not likely (we have lossless, BD can go to a large sampling rate and hard to go beyond 7.1), resolution even though I am sure many would like 4k+, look how long it took to get so few people with HD/1080P, I doubt 4K+ will be common enough any time soon. Other features, BD should be able to handle real 3D, what else is there coming down the pipe that might be here soon enough?

Be it DL or optical disk or something else, I don't see any benefits that would be important enough to get people to upgrade from BD happening any time soon.

PS I know someone will say convenience for DL, but until there is over 100mbps commonplace for cheap in most homes it is not more convenient. If you can wait a few hours for a high quality DL , a few minutes to rent is most likely not an issue, and if you buy then even if you have over 100 mbps it is not an issue.

[Grumpz]

The thread was started to see how many open minds visited this forum. People have opinions, and for must, they are very hard to sway.

To be open minded on a topic like this, you've got to understand. My belief isn't that the technology that exists exactly as it does today will replace blu-ray.

But there's no reason to believe that existing technology won't be modified/improved to handle such things.

Be honest people, how many hard drives have you purchased that have failed? I've been buying computers for 12 yrs, building them for 11. I've had 3 hd crashes. All were over 10 yrs ago. Manfuctures used to offer 1 yr warranties, now you get 5 or more...out of the box. The longjevity of HD has vastly improved. For me, I now outgrow hard drives. I don't even think HD's as they exist now are going to be around much longer. More moving parts for no reason.

As someone else posted, solid State memory is the storage of the future and isn't volatile at all. Nothing like Flash media. Very pricey but on the horzion.

These are the advances that I'm looking at to replace the way all types of media is purchased and stored. So I guess, my mindset is more than just replacing blu-ray. But rather will cause the end of blu-ray media.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by Grumpz

As someone else posted, solid State memory is the storage of the future and isn't volatile at all. Nothing like Flash media. Very pricey but on the horzion.

haha

Flash is a kind of solid-state. Solid-state is anything that stores and retrieves data without mechnical, moving parts.

But rather will cause the end of blu-ray media.

What will cause the end? I'm putting my money on 3DTV. In the same way that HDTV has obsoleted DVD, so too do I believe 3DTV will be able to obsolete Blu-ray. 3D is the only thing I can think of where another new format is warranted. Any other new format that comes along but doesn't add anything to the table would be unable to catch on. Even simply higher resolution would probably be unable to catch on.

[Anthony P]

The thread was started to see how many open minds visited this forum. People have opinions, and for must, they are very hard to sway.

the issue is not open-mindedness but being a realist. If something is realistic but you don't think it can happen then the issue is one of "open mind" but if something is unrealistic, then it is not. No matter how open my mind is flapping my arms while sitting on this chair, I will not take off off from it and fly around the room.

But there's no reason to believe that existing technology won't be modified/improved to handle such things.

agree, but tech does not exist/improve in a void. In 2002 the BFG got formed to look at a new format based on blue lasers at .1mm (and a lot of research was done before that and available for people to knw it was worked on). In 2006 BD launched many years after even the BDF was formed. Tech takes research and time. And it is as much political as technological, Fox did not like HD DVD because they deemed it too easy to crack, there are many decisions apart from tech, it takes a long time from playing with something that might be interesting in a lab (when we first hear about it) and bringing it out as something can be manufactured and that the infrastructure is there. That is why most are guessing a long time. If there was something interesting on the horizon (i.e. under 5 years) then we would have heard something about it, at least as being in the pipeline.

Be honest people, how many hard drives have you purchased that have failed? I've been buying computers for 12 yrs, building them for 11. I've had 3 hd crashes.

2 that I know of, but then again I have DVDs that are more then 10 years old and VHS tapes that are even older then that. Most people have a PC for 3-5 years, hopefully a drive with movies will last a lot longer then the common PC. The other issue is that a bad disk =1 dead movie, a bad HDD, means a lot of dead movies, the risk is no where near the same.

[Anthony P]

What will cause the end? I'm putting my money on 3DTV. In the same way that HDTV has obsoleted DVD, so too do I believe 3DTV will be able to obsolete Blu-ray. 3D is the only thing I can think of where another new format is warranted. Any other new format that comes along but doesn't add anything to the table would be unable to catch on. Even simply higher resolution would probably be unable to catch on.

true, but BD should be able to handle real 3D, that is why there are the BD 3D threads, so I don't think a new format would be needed (but a new profile for sure)

[ckent22]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

ebooks have been around for ages and people still prefer the physical form. Just because one kind of media has found success in pure digital doesn't mean they all will or necessarily should.

Ebooks may have been around for ages, but the readers and the hard drives per say that we are beginning to emerge have not. Those are new and are appealing. "Necessarily should" is an irrelevant term, because what necessarily should happen often doesn't regardless of technology or any other aspect in life.

Not a one of those services provide decent quality HD media digitally. Torrents however do provide decent quality HD media, often times being really good Blu-ray rips. People downloading stuff in HD are downloading it illegally or getting ripped off for subpar quality.

Actually, they do. The only thing Blu-ray offers compared to those is higher bit rates with better audio. I'd wish you get off illegal downloading, because I'm not talking about that. I'm talking the LEGAL downloading services. And over time, higher bit rates PROBABLY will catch up in LEGAL downloading to Blu-ray. HD audio probably will too. But, that remains to be seen. That's the only advantage that I've seen. You can still download HD video from these services and others that I haven't mentioned.

Wait. What? Who spends 30 dollars on a single movie?

You're joking right? At least I hope you are. 30 dollars is about MSRP for a single Blu-ray and it's basically what you find on most store shelves for new releases unless you're an educated consumer. I buy my Blu-rays at CD Warehouse brand new for 15.99. But, not every consumer knows that. They see a 29.99 Blu-ray and Best Buy or Target and see the DVD release or a HD download for half that in some cases and think to themselves, why in the world would I spend 30 dollars on a new release when I can get it much cheaper other ways.

As a general rule, people are stupid and ignorant. Just think: average IQ is 100, so that means 50% of the population has an IQ under 100.

I'll replace stupid with ignorant. There's a whole plethora of knowledge whether related to technology or in general that if people took the time to understand, then it would benefit them very well, and they wouldn't be ignorant.

The point was that technically obsoleted technology can still be marketable for economic reasons. I'm not sure how that relates to this topic and frankly, I don't feel like going back and looking at the context in which I made that statement. Either way, it doesn't really matter.

I agree. Hence DVDs are store shelves. I was at a Fry's the other day and they were selling a 10 pack of DVD-R's with jewel cases for 2 dollars and change. Obsolete media now for the HD niche market but still a decent deal.

I know what it means, but it's the implication that I'm against. To say "Blu-ray is niche" implies that Blu-ray won't get any better and it's stuck at its current market penetration, doomed to never become the main choice of the masses.

And don't tell me that implication is not seen. I'm sure you read the post earlier where the person compared Blu-ray to DVHS and said that Blu-ray could silently fizzle out in a few years.

There's really not a time limit to say for something that is a niche. Using the definition I gave you and your knowledge of the word that you claim you have and using the knowledge of the marketplace, then it's understood that the marketplace changes. Things can have value one day, and the next day not.

Just like Blu-ray can have value to the technologically savvy crowd, but at the time being for the masses it doesn't really.

Simply stating that Blu-ray for the time being is niche doesn't mean that it won't appeal to the masses one day. But, for now it is particularly focused to a segmented population - - one who understand technology and one who can afford the prices for Blu-ray technology and media.

All I'm saying is at present it's niche, but it's incorrect to say it won't appeal to the masses one day. It has the potential, but you can't for sure say right now that it will or won't, because at this particular point nobody knows whether it will share the success of DVD or turn into another laser disc type media.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antique


"An antique (Latin: antiquus; old) is an old collectible item. It is collected or desirable because of its age, rarity, condition, utility, or other unique features. It is an object that represents a previous era in human society."



Is VHS desirable because of its age, rarity, condition, utility or other unique features? Seriously, the last movie on VHS was made in '06 and you really think the format is that old? Black tapes were still being up until '08 I think!

I know what an antique is, and yes, VHS is an antique now. I have several VHS tapes that I will hang onto. Not to watch them again, but because they are rare and autographed, etc. Age is but a small factor. It's not a determining factor. But, just because, the last VHS tape rolled out in 06' does that change the fact that there were other made 15 years ago? Heck no.

And before you say anything, stupid-ass collector's edition tapes from Disney and stuff don't count. They're collectible because they're Disney and rare, not because they're "antiques".

I don't own any Disney VHS tapes. Sorry, but the ones I do own do have sentimental value, and monetary value at least I think due to the autographs, etc. I haven't checked the price tag for them, but it'd be interesting to see how much.

Are we arguing that Blu-ray won't take off or that downloads won't overtake Blu-ray?

The two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive. The success of Blu-ray will be heavily determined by the extent of the technology of cpus and hard drives in the coming years. The success of downloads will depend on the sales of Blu-ray and if Blu-ray's market shares can continue. The only way I forsee that happening is if it breaks its niche market and appeals to the masses by lowering prices and educating consumers. It's gonna be a tough battle to COMPLETELY overtake all other forms whether it's downloading, DVD, etc. I know its doing well right now. That's not the issue. It's whether it can continue this patter in a market place that sees different factors and conditions that when DVD overtook VHS and became the standard.

I'm aware of Blu-ray's potential pitfalls, but that doesn't mean that downloads are any more poised to be taken seriously by the masses either.

I didn't say that. I said that for the average consumer, a cheaper download makes sense. I mean, let's face it. Blu-ray has advantages in higher bit rates and HD audio, but if a consumer doesn't own a 5.1 or 7.1 surround system with HD-Codecs and doesn't have a HDTV or a cpu capable of playing the HD Video at high bit rates, then doesn't it make sense for them to invest in Blu-ray when there are cheaper alternatives? These are the things that need to be addressed if Blu-ray is going to achieve the success DVD has in that it becomes a household format and the standard.

But conveniently a pure digital format WON'T also suffer from pirating?

Let me ask you a question. Have digital copies been pirated? I realize they have been given to friends, etc. for people who didn't want them, but has anyone been able to remove the DRM off of a digital copy? I've tried to put some on my PSP and convert them to a format the PSP would recognize, but I couldn't. The DRM has held up well on the digital copies unless you can correct me on that and show proof that someone has removed the DRM.

You can't stop people from giving movies away to their friends regardless of if its a download or a disc based media. People, by nature are greedy and ruthless and want everything for themselves with as little cost to them as possible.

Show me some evidence to suggest that downloads have any chance of getting their act together and being taken seriously. Cite information about PURCHASED downloaded MOVIES, not streamed movies, not downloaded music.

The burden of proof is on you. You're suggesting that the status quo is going to be turned on its head. Prove it.

You want to me to show proof that downloads will take over or is it more that Blu-ray will fail? I have bought 260 Blu-ray movies. I don't want Blu-ray to fail, but I'm also a realist.

I see that downloads are inevitable. To sell a disc based media when a large and growing number of people are downloading whether legally or legally and expect to continue this trend of substantial growth like DVD gave the movie studios is unrealistic. It's just not logical.

That's based off of several things. You want proof. Well, I'm using countless articles I've read, common sense, technological advancements, but mostly ease of access, portability, and people's preferences.

Just google and you'll see that there are countless downloading sites besides iTunes out there and that they offer HD videos legally. The Bandwith is less than Blu-ray, but I've addressed that above.

It's just reasonable to realize that with this growing trend of downloading, home video sales will reach a major plateau, and eventually cut off. Maybe completely or maybe not.

There will always be disc based media buyers as well. Which is why I'm saying that disc based media will continue to have a decent life span, but it's days are more than likely numbered.

New release catalog titles don't hit 5 dollars until they've been out for a long time. For example, Howard the Duck just hit DVD for the first time a while long ago. Amazon still has it at 8 dollars.

What's a new release DVD catalog title? Are you talking about re-released DVD catalog title? Because, I can walk into to a lot of stores and sees catalog DVDs for 5 dollars or less. Re-released DVD catalog titles may be a little more, but again, we go back to the average consumer.

Will the average consumer necessarily buy a re-released Catalog title with increased special features on a DVD or Blu-ray for that matter? Well, maybe, but maybe not. What we can assume is that the cheaper product can be more appealing for it's cost to the masses who are necessarily as rich as the elite and technologically savvy group who buys Blu-rays and re-released films on DVDs.

By the same logic, DVD would've never been able to win over VHS, because DVD had a similar period in its own history when DVD was much more expensive and VHS was super cheap and people were eating up the super cheap VHS.

Not the same logic at all. You're conveniently forgetting or leaving out, I'm not sure which one that CDs were also emerging and replacing a-track tapes. People liked the idea that CDs and DVDs were identical in the way they looked, so they no longer wanted something that resembled a cassette tape. They wanted the new technology that looked like a CD. The CD player was hip just like the DVD was hip too, because it was no longer a tape.

On the other hand, now you have Blu-ray which resembles still a DVD and a CD, but now people prefer to buy their music through downloads and play them on their iPOD. iPOD revolutionized music and listening to muisc, and it's slowly influencing people to rethink their movie purchases as well.

Right, and Blu-ray has higher profit margins and better securities in place against piracy.


Throw me some numbers which are comparable to Blu-ray's market penetration then.

Not sure what you're getting at here other than there are plenty of Blu-ray rips floating on torrent sites. But at the same time, Blu-ray has taken better precautions to combat piracy by the codes placed on the disc. That hurt DVD, because it was fairly easy for anyone to crack these codes and remove the DRM.

Once again, piracy will be there whether it's disc or downloads.

You think those low resolution copies mean ANYTHING when considering the question of how will people enjoy HD media in the coming years?

You may want to ask Toshiba and a lot of other companies who are spitting out upconverting DVD players to play in "near HD". They would seem to argue yes.

And I guess my wording was sloppy, but I didn't mean to say that I hate people that argue that, but rather that I hate when people argue that.

Two very different meanings. Glad to see you changed that.

Good ol' DRM. Not allowing me to replace my copy if I need to. Not allowing me to let a friend borrow the movie. Not allowing me to pass ownership to someone else.

Well, DRM is a tricky thing/issue. It's the same thing with ripping a CD to your iTunes library on your cpu. Is it technically removing the DRM and making copies of those songs? Yes. So, is it illegal? Probably, depends on what country you live in. But, more than likely it is depending on which law expert you talk to. For my knowledge, no one has been sued for ripping a CD to put onto their iTunes library and probably won't be.

In today's society, unfortunately this is an example of a gray area. Because, people don't really know how far they've gone until they're in over their heads. The only real warnings people get is not to make copies, but society essentially gives us a cigarette and a match and tells us not to smoke with all the products they give like DVD burners, software, etc.

Now, before you jump all over me, yes common sense comes into play, but common sense is a luxury that you're not born with, and don't make the incorrect assumption that all people have that.

Well, they'd better get their asses on it then, because if they're going to knock Blu-ray out as provider of HD media, they better get a move on before Blu-ray has a chance to knock DVD out as overall video media.

You are probably looking at the next five years. Am I correct? I am looking at the bigger picture here whether Blu-ray is around for 5, 10, or 20 years and even the next disc based media after it. This is my point - - downloading is only gonna expand based on new technology in cpus, hard drives, etc. going back to my original point in that disc based media's days are numbered.

lol

What's funny?

A CD is not going to fail if you take good care of it. Handle it properly, use it only as directed, don't microwave it, etc.

Do yourself a favor and go pick up a stack of DVD-R's and tell me if there in small print is written manufacturer guarantees this product for 2 years or something to that extent. CD, DVDs, or Blu-rays don't last forever regardless of whether or not you misuse them.

Great, so when your harddrive fails you can have to deal with the annoyance of coming up with a list and proving that you've paid for them, pay a couple bucks per movie to the studio to cover the surcharges they'll hit you with, then pay even more to your ISP to cover the bandwidth overages you'll get from downloading a full collection of movies in full HD with uncompressed sound

.

Kind of like the annoyance you get when you have to buy a new film on disc based media when the next big thing pops up? Just for the record, those situations won't necessarily happen. You talk about hard drives failing. Well, I got news for you. They do, but just like you like to talk about handling CDs properly, if you handle Hard Drives properly, they can have a long life span. Nothing is guaranteed, but Hard Drives can last a while. If you read what I said, there will probably be measures put into place like you can download a couple of times, etc.

Once again, if the average consumer doesn't have the capability to play HD audio, then it won't help them anyway. You can offer HD Audio film downloads or regular DD 1080i/1080p downloads. That way you cater both markets.

There is no such thing as a legal digital copy which compares to Blu-ray. Apple's "HD" movies are freaking garbage.

I'm not sure what you're getting out here. I assume you're referring to the downloads not being as good as Blu-ray. If that's the case, I've covered numerous times above, so, I'm not gonna waste my time writing it again.

No, I admitted that I wouldn't be surprised to see a USB stick-style form of delivery in the future. If they gave ample reason for a new format like excellent 3D support, I could definitely see that happening. But USB stick movies is not the same as downloaded movies.

Who is to say that we won't see a 10 TB USB stick in the future? You? There's no guarantee that we won't.

Are you talking about pre-loaded USB movies that come directly from the studio?

Oh? Several? Well, there are millions currently enjoying Blu-ray. Last I checked, millions are more than "several".

Another ignorant statement. Several may have been the wrong word. But, just to give you a lesson in demographics there are 6 billion plus people on the planet, and taking into account those that don't have a tv cuts that number dramatically. Cutting it even more are the people who don't have HD technology cuts it even more.

Computers are just as prevalent in homes and for those on a budget (the average consumer) you can cut your cable bill and your movie bills out completely by watching HD content on your cpu and downloading HD movies which are what I'd say is more than Blu-ray niche buyers.

You're right. It just means that they're not getting quality HD media. Worse than buying DVD as far as I'm concerned; at least a person buying DVD is buying DVD because that's what their hardware supports. A computer can support full 1080p picture and uncompressed audio, and yet, there is no legitimate way to purchase digital copies of movies with that level of quality.

Again, if you think that downloads won't catch Blu-ray, then you're very ignorant and choose to ignore the technological advancements in cpus and hard drives. This is more about services, and companies will start offering these. It's only a matter of time.

I've never met anyone who would ACTIVELY prefer downloading enormous files than owning a Blu-ray, except those who download the stuff for free illegally. Perhaps they exist somewhere, but as with music, so long as the copy is quality downloaded movies tend to be illegal.

Why are you so focused on illegally downloaded movies? You're so hung up on it. Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it seems like everything you argue keeps coming back to illegal downloads.

You really need to get out more. For your information, illegally downloaded movies are not quality. They aren't the original product. They're a cheap imitation of the original that is not true to the source.

Why would you say this? Gut feeling with 0 evidence to support it? Because looking at numbers logically, Blu-ray is set to fall into DVD's place and digital downloads will fall into a niche (lol) of people who are tech savvy, but refuse to enjoy true quality HD material.

I told you why I said this, but you choose to ignore it. It's more than a gut feeling. You also choose to ignore that the same factors that caused DVD to succeed aren't there. I've spelled those out to you over and over again in this post and others, but you don't want to hear it.

When, you take your blinders off and realize that Blu-ray can and probably will take a serious plunge to downloads whether illegal or legal, then you'll realize that it can succeed, but it's days are numbered.

I'll concede this, but I can't see this happening any time in the next couple of decades at the very least.


Downloading has always been around, it's just been illegal.

Downloading is very modern technology, so I'm not sure what you mean by this. Again, you come to the illegal stuff, can we get off illegal downloads. I'd prefer if the mods didn't close this thread because of that.

And the difference of Blu-ray's success will be more due to the fact that plenty of people still don't have HD sets yet and won't want to upgrade to BD without a HD TV.

???? Yeah, that's a big problem. But, I don't know how that's gonna make it succeed.

ps i apologize if there are any typos or anything not making sense. I don't feel like going back over this crap and checking for mistakes.

No worries.

[Grumpz]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

the issue is not open-mindedness but being a realist. If something is realistic but you don't think it can happen then the issue is one of "open mind" but if something is unrealistic, then it is not. No matter how open my mind is flapping my arms while sitting on this chair, I will not take off off from it and fly around the room.





agree, but tech does not exist/improve in a void. In 2002 the BFG got formed to look at a new format based on blue lasers at .1mm (and a lot of research was done before that and available for people to knw it was worked on). In 2006 BD launched many years after even the BDF was formed. Tech takes research and time. And it is as much political as technological, Fox did not like HD DVD because they deemed it too easy to crack, there are many decisions apart from tech, it takes a long time from playing with something that might be interesting in a lab (when we first hear about it) and bringing it out as something can be manufactured and that the infrastructure is there. That is why most are guessing a long time. If there was something interesting on the horizon (i.e. under 5 years) then we would have heard something about it, at least as being in the pipeline.



2 that I know of, but then again I have DVDs that are more then 10 years old and VHS tapes that are even older then that. Most people have a PC for 3-5 years, hopefully a drive with movies will last a lot longer then the common PC. The other issue is that a bad disk =1 dead movie, a bad HDD, means a lot of dead movies, the risk is no where near the same.

The technology already exists, but stability needs improving for flash memory, and as I said, today's TV's already support usb drives. With firmware updates, my Sony could play HD content off the drive.

HD sets are mainstream, and with native usb support. Maybe you can, but I'm not sure, does anyone out there produce non-hd sets anymore?

Do you think people who know nothing about this side of things are more likely to embrace plugging in a usb stick to watch a movie, or buying anther piece of equipment to play movies as well as buying the movie itself? It's simpler, and lets face it, society is getting lazy.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by ckent

I'm not sure you understand what niche means. Niche means it applies to a focus, targetable market. You've somehow managed to connect the word niche to laserdisc, DVD-A, and SACD. But, you fail to realize that with only 1 in 3 houses having some sort of HD technology and that doesn't mean that they have Blu-ray, then MOST households don't have Blu-ray or HD technology. Blu-ray, although successful, is still not a mass technology. It's a niche format. Just because it has high market pentration doesn't mean it's not niche. And also, what you fail to take into account, is that many people who don't have a Blu-ray player buy Blu-ray, but only because at some point in the future they know they will get a Blu-ray player and go Hi-Def.

At this point, Blu-ray is applied to a focused, targetable market - - the Hi-Def market. Once again, there would be no DVDs or HD converter boxes on store shelves if it wasn't niche.

By the strict definition of niche you are correct, however it's hard to find a product that is NOT a niche using the strict definition. DVD is also a niche.

Niche has subtleties that go beyond the strict definition.

[Sonny]

I think BD will be around 10+ years from now & then some really. Their might be 4K displays , but it will mean nothing to 99% of folks. 1080p will hopefully become the TV standard & last for decades like 480i did. We're lucky to have 720p/1080i HDTV right now! I think 1080p24Hz Blu-ray can co-exist with thumb-drive HD movies & Digital Downloads. I will never be a fan of anything but physical media my self. 4K will be great for people running 120"+ screened projectors, but us 60" and under HDTV's will have nothing but bragging rights. But what do I know.... I'm just enjoying what I have & am VERY happy.