HD DVD already doomed?

[Odium69]

Now that i caught your attention with my positive headline id like some extra input on a discussion i had tonight. A friend and i were debating on the future of blu ray and hd-dvd, he believes hd-dvd will win the war with there cheaper players because most people wont spend $500+ on Bd players and after i crushed his only ace i brought up the point that so many big companies hardware and film wise are so tied up in blu ray that none of them could afford to let it lose. Toshiba, universal, and Microsoft are the only companies i know of to be hd-dvd exclusive, thats 3 versus everyone that supports blu ray exclusively. I know many companies are neutral but even now we see the wheels turning in companies becoming bd only. Does my argument have any merit when it comes to this point? Thanks i just needed to vent

[GasCat]

Supply and demand.

The more demanded the lower the price paid. Right now we are at one price point for a system. Other companies who see the price and want a piece of the profits will be encouraged to make players. The more players on the market the cheaper the price. The cheaper the price the higher the demand.

Around and around she goes. HD-DVD is lower now but thinking the prices for Blu will not go down is very short-sided.

[cueman98]

Of course your argument has merit. Just look at disc sales figures that consistently are in favor of blu-ray, movie studio support favors blu-ray, hardware support favors blu ray, and recent announcements by blockbuster, and you see a trend. While this is not absolute, it is a clear indicator of the direction of the hi-def market.

[EvanX]

I paid $600 for my first DVD player in 1998. It's a Sony. I still have it and it still works perfectly.

[SomethingForKate]

Originally Posted by EvanX

I paid $600 for my first DVD player in 1998. It's a Sony. I still have it and it still works perfectly.

Yep, I paid £400 (about $800 US) for my first DVD player back in 1999. It's a Sony, it's multi-region chipped and it still works a dream.

SFK

[Matt X]

Originally Posted by GasCat

Supply and demand.

The more demanded the lower the price paid. Right now we are at one price point for a system. Other companies who see the price and want a piece of the profits will be encouraged to make players. The more players on the market the cheaper the price. The cheaper the price the higher the demand.

Around and around she goes. HD-DVD is lower now but thinking the prices for Blu will not go down is very short-sided.

...I thought S&D goes like, "If demand for a product rises, the producer can command a higher asking price for the product. If supply outstrips demand, prices are usually lowered to generate demand"??? obviously there is a limit on either end of that spectrum.

[eat_me_cool]

The format war is finished. Blu-ray wins. The price difference between players by the Holiday season will be zero. HD-DVD only had a price advantage because they made the drive cheaper (due to similarities to DVD) and used obsolete PC components. Both of theses advantages will disapear. BD drive have been mass produced for the PS3 and the SOC from Sigma will be ready. The market will soon look like this-

BD has more capacity
BD and HD-DVD have similar extra features
BD has the majority of studio support. All the best movies.
You can't hire HD-DVD at B&M stores
HD-DVD will be dropped by increasing numbers of stores
BD has more Japanese and Chinese manufacturers than HD_DVD
BD And HD-DVD players and software cost the same.
BD gets cheaper than HD-DVD due to economies of scale.

Its game over and Blockbuster called it.

[binarymelon]

The biggest issue with the price difference is that the HD DVD camp lowered there's too quickly and too soon. It's hard to get hardware manufacturers to start making a product at loss when there's a possibility of never recouping that loss on future sales. Now if they refuse to make HD DVD players they can make sure the format fails and guarantee sales of Blu-Ray hardware.

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by binarymelon

The biggest issue with the price difference is that the HD DVD camp lowered there's too quickly and too soon. It's hard to get hardware manufacturers to start making a product at loss when there's a possibility of never recouping that loss on future sales. Now if they refuse to make HD DVD players they can make sure the format fails and guarantee sales of Blu-Ray hardware.

You're absolutely right. They couldn't recover their development costs and cover their fixed costs. Most product cycles take care of much of these costs early and later in the product's life cycle most of the product costs are "variable" costs. Toshiba has forgotten Business 101.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by whippersnapper

Toshiba has forgotten Business 101.

...along with 95% of the HD DVD zealots over at AVMS.

[desmond]

Originally Posted by binarymelon

The biggest issue with the price difference is that the HD DVD camp lowered there's too quickly and too soon. It's hard to get hardware manufacturers to start making a product at loss when there's a possibility of never recouping that loss on future sales. Now if they refuse to make HD DVD players they can make sure the format fails and guarantee sales of Blu-Ray hardware.

side of effect of this is that toshiba has also shrunk retailer's margin on its players so all the big box stores will almost certainly push bd over hddvd gear during xmas.

[haushausman]

Originally Posted by desmond

side of effect of this is that toshiba has also shrunk retailer's margin on its players so all the big box stores will almost certainly push bd over hddvd gear during xmas.

Agree 100%

[MrVorhees]

i hope sooo bad!!!
i really want to hit the news "HD DVD is dead" infront of HD DVD's arrogants fanboys fore head.

I hope after Christmas its over.

[GaS]

I don't think it will be officially over, but it will be obviously over to everyone except the knuckleheads at AVS.

[warhawk21114]

Progress is being made, I like it! BD has the edge and I hope they keep it up. It by all means is not over as those companies in HD DVD have sunk a lot of money into them and don't plan to go away easily. But the market should dictate that.

[movies3]

i believe the format war is over but thats just me, i think you should let your friend get on our home page here at blu-ray and let him see all the announcments that are happening everyday. He might change his mind

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by warhawk21114

Progress is being made, I like it! BD has the edge and I hope they keep it up. It by all means is not over as those companies in HD DVD have sunk a lot of money into them and don't plan to go away easily. But the market should dictate that.

"Sunk costs" do not belong in the equation of whether to proceed with a project. Rational business decisions are based upon likely future costs and revenues. Of course, I'm not saying the HD-DVD supporters in business are necessarily going to make rational business decisions. A lot of bad business decisions have been made by folks for emotional reasons such as not admitting that they are wrong. should

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by binarymelon

The biggest issue with the price difference is that the HD DVD camp lowered there's too quickly and too soon. It's hard to get hardware manufacturers to start making a product at loss when there's a possibility of never recouping that loss on future sales. Now if they refuse to make HD DVD players they can make sure the format fails and guarantee sales of Blu-Ray hardware.

I said this when they began their first round of price cutting. It is way too early for that. Why would a manufacturer get into competition with Toshiba with margins on players getting pushed down so early, and so quickly. I believe this is why those cheap chinese players have not shown their face as of yet. Blu-ray on the other hand has plenty of room for manufacturers to offer product. There really is no low end players, and that is why a chinese manufacturer is going to jump into blu-ray to produce players for that market segment. The major CE companies have taken care of the mid and high end.

I think it is ironic that the Toshiba/HD DVD crew made this big announcement that low end chinese manufacturers were coming on line to help them out, and blu-ray beat them to the punch with no such announcement.

[MrVorhees]

LOOL!! right now

HD DVD Fanboys -->



and the Blu-Ray Fanboys -->