Thoughts from someone who just returned an HD DVD player

[bthuring]

Well, I just recently returned my HD DVD within the 30 day return policy allowed by CC. As an average schmuck I'm going to sit this one out for awhile. I was blown away by the picture and sound of the HD DVD, but then again I have no desire to invest in a dead format (if that comes to be). In addition, I cannot afford to spend $499 on a Blu Ray and wouldn't spend $399 either. The whole thing just blows. I consider pretty much anything I read in either forums to be too biased to put any weight behind. The following are just points that I found to frustrating. They don't really need answers, they just point to all the uncertainty someone like myself ran into and decided it wasn't worth the effort. I should have done my research on the front end...doh!

How can hardware price be irrelevant in a format war?

The hard drive size (if that's the proper terminology) is irrelevant to me. I mainly am into the movies and a maybe watching a few extras.

There is such a small market at this point that I don't think anyone wins until there sufficient number of non-technical customers who decide to switch to the high def DVD market.

I think these people will put a lot of weight into hardware prices, unless there is a complete dearth of choices available in one format or another.

I went to about 10 different retail locations and talked to salesman on the floor and they seem to be as split as I am. The running theme was that they were selling many more HD DVD hardware units, but selling more Blu-Ray movies.

A major independent video firm near where I live has been renting HD DVD for quite some time and just recently started stocking Blu-Ray. The manager told me that already Blu-Ray rentals are topping he HD DVD rentals.

I could go on, but you get the point. To the average consumer it just doesn't make sense to move form a standard DVD player with the ability to up convert.

I would agree that the HD DVD terminology would seem to be an advantage, but in reality it's the opposite. HD DVD is too generic a term and consumers with a standard DVD with up convert already think they have one.

If hardware prices were identical at this point I would have returned my HD DVD player for a Blu Ray and hoped for the best.

[Dadds]

Welcome. Were not as bad as some places. We dont have an flame wars on here. The PS3 is looking is the best value on the market 9if you also like games). Just hang around and ask questions. They will be answered.

[cajmoyper]

That's respectable. And what a lot of people don't understand, even here, is like you said, the market for HD is big enough to declare a loser yet. I can't sympathize with you though, only because I am impatient. I've got both.

[ReduxInflux]

honesty is refreshing. i'm pretty much in your boat but the only difference between you and i is that i bought a PS3 (because of it's overall functional depth: wi-fi capabilities (easy firmware updates and internet surfing), and the marriage of hi-def video gameage and dvd playback was too sweet to pass up) blu-ray just happened to be its prize companion. if it was an hd-dvd player that was built in, i would be all about hd-dvd. but thats a moot point. one thing before i go - its probably true that more hd-dvd players are sold than blu-ray players but what i believe to be a huuuge statistical fault of this soundbyte is probably the omission of ps3 sales (not considered a stand alone blu-ray player per se). but yeah i totally understand where youre coming from. if it wasnt for ps3, i wouldnt have gotten wet. the prices are astronomical. they will drop over time once blu-ray raises its flag and the territory is safe to settle in. (and i say this considering the facts not because i'm emotionally biased) thanks for the post.

[bthuring]

Roll back the clock 20 years and the PS3 gaming system may have swayed the balance for me. Now that I'm in my late 40's the gaming issue doesn't hold much interest to me. Now if it could handicap sports betting for me...well you have a sale.

[powerSURG]

I recently purchased a sound system for my car. I could very easily have improved the sound in my car with a cheap $500 dollar system from Best Buy. However, I wanted something with a little more quality/fidelity so I went with JL Audio and paid a premium.

It's kind of the same deal. You could go with HD DVD and invest in a dying format, or you could invest in BD and have something that will be around a lot longer (as it appears now). It really comes down to what you want out of life right now--or what you want out of your entertainment center anyway...

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by bthuring

If hardware prices were identical at this point I would have returned my HD DVD player for a Blu Ray and hoped for the best.

Hang in there cheif. I believe someone from Sony already hinted that the BDPs300 could very well be that price by christmas! And it's a hell of a player!

Roll back the clock 20 years and the PS3 gaming system may have swayed the balance for me. Now that I'm in my late 40's the gaming issue doesn't hold much interest to me. Now if it could handicap sports betting for me...well you have a sale.

I rarely use my ps3 for gaming, but the downloadable content rocks, HD trailers, games etc.! plus it's the most future proof unit, it's the fastest out there and it has a built in Hard-drive for storage, you can stream pics, songs and music from your PC and it has wi-fi & blue tooth built in!
It's way more than a game system!

[theknub]

Originally Posted by BTBuck1

..snip...
I rarely use my ps3 for gaming, but the downloadable content rocks, HD trailers, games etc.! plus it's the most future proof unit, it's the fastest out there and it has a built in Hard-drive for storage, you can stream pics, songs and music from your PC and it has wi-fi & blue tooth built in!
It's way more than a game system!

and it cures cancer!

[reiella]

Fair points all, but those are issues more so for the v-DVD adoption period [as you point out and exemplify].

Disc Space is a critical issue, as it's what actually allows high-definition content to be delivered in the first place. It's also important for the 'secondary' market adoptions [Game Consoles and the PC].

Wait it out is my advice, especially if price is a big thing. Right now, the format war is being waged primarily in the enthusiast market [which has grown significantly, no mistake]. Myself, if blu fails adoption, I'm don't mind so much, I still have the discs that are out now in blu, and given that I'm from PS3, my player still is 'functional'.

If you have any inclination is hesitate, it's prolly best to hestitate for consumer electronics.

[bthuring]

Thank you for the responses. All good things to think about. Leads me to another question. Since I'm sitting out it really doesn't matter which side wins, however, is it possible that neither side wins/loses? In the words of Bob Dylan...can it just keep on keepin' on?

[ArkGuy]

Originally Posted by bthuring

Well, I just recently returned my HD DVD within the
How can hardware price be irrelevant in a format war?

I think you're right. If a big B&M chain were to starting dumping some Chinesee made $199 player on the market, in either format, it would be darned relevant.

The hard drive size (if that's the proper terminology) is irrelevant to me. I mainly am into the movies and a maybe watching a few extras.

You may be referring to capacity of the discs themselves. Many folks here have indicated that, like you, they aren't all that interested in the trailers and features included with a movie title and I'm usually of the same mind. It would only be important to me if a very long movie (e.g., Lawrence of Arabia) or a movie with an unusually interesting (to me) documentary or something could not fit onto a single disc. In that case, advantage Blu-ray.

There is such a small market at this point that I don't think anyone wins until there [is a] sufficient number of non-technical customers who decide to switch to the high def DVD market.

I want to say I agree but it may prove to be true that CE manufactures and movie studios are a skitish bunch and if the momentum starts swinging too obviously in one direction, a stampede may occur regarding choice of formats. Sometimes big battles are won by a small number of participants. See, Midway, Battle of; see also American Revolutionary Way, and almost any election.

I think these people will put a lot of weight into hardware prices, unless there is a complete dearth of choices available in one format or another.

I agree. Thus the recent organized push to attempt to "edicate" buyers about the benefits of higher def discs.

I went to about 10 different retail locations and talked to salesman on the floor and they seem to be as split as I am. The running theme was that they were selling many more HD DVD hardware units, but selling more Blu-Ray movies.

That's consitent with some national numbers IF you remove PS3's from the equation. 3-2 lead for HD-DVD in stand alone players but more movie purchases and rentals to Blu-ray.

A major independent video firm near where I live has been renting HD DVD for quite some time and just recently started stocking Blu-Ray. The manager told me that already Blu-Ray rentals are topping he HD DVD rentals.

See above.

I could go on, but you get the point. To the average consumer it just doesn't make sense to move form a standard DVD player with the ability to up convert.

I would agree that the HD DVD terminology would seem to be an advantage, but in reality it's the opposite. HD DVD is too generic a term and consumers with a standard DVD with up convert already think they have one.

If hardware prices were identical at this point I would have returned my HD DVD player for a Blu Ray and hoped for the best.

Agreed and agreed on the first two points but still I decided that taking the plunge now is worth it. Worse case scenario is I am left with a great upconverting player if I have backed the losing horse.

Good take.

[GasCat]

Absolutely, both formats could never be adopted by the public. That will kill both formats. It's what M$ is hoping will happen so they can launch their downloading service for HD. That's why they are backing Toshiba and HD-DVD.

[reiella]

Originally Posted by bthuring

Thank you for the responses. All good things to think about. Leads me to another question. Since I'm sitting out it really doesn't matter which side wins, however, is it possible that neither side wins/loses? In the words of Bob Dylan...can it just keep on keepin' on?

That is a possibility. However, that most likly means DVD wins and studio support for the HD optical discs goes away.

Retail doesn't want two formats, alot of consumers don't want two formats, and the studios don't want two formats. "Can't we all just get along" won't work so well because of the LCD factor in retail when talking about the video market. It works with gaming, because the level of product awareness is greater. While eventually, the market could become aware enough to handle the distinction, it isn't at that point now, or really in the near future. It is cynicism, and it is reducing the mass of consumers down to the LCD.

Now, if all studios became exclusive [or TotalHD presses], the format distinction could continue without the war, but promote the dual-deck players... But that isn't a pleasant idea for the consumer as it means you'll just have to buy a dual-deck and the dual-discs and pretty much spend more money than necessary. A very doubtful outcome [far more likly to see the BDA and DVD Forum kiss and makeup and adopt a new composite format :P].

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by ArkGuy

I think you're right. If a big B&M chain were to starting dumping some Chinesee made $199 player on the market, in either format, it would be darned relevant.

I suspect it would be dumping.

At $199 SRP, the wholesale price would need to be around $150 or less. And with a $40 - $50 royalty cost in each box, I think it would be difficult to have a profitable HD disc player at $150 wholesale.

Drive: $50
SoC: $20
Misc: $60 (DRAM, case, power supply, HDMI chip, etc.)
Royalties: $40
--------------
Cost: $170

We haven't heard a peep about the Chinese HD DVD players since CES. And the CES announcement said they'd be here by now.

Like Thomson (RCA) and the HD-A1, you have to wonder if Toshiba's aggressive pricing has made it unprofitable to enter the HD DVD arena?

Gary

[reiella]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

I suspect it would be dumping.

At $199 SRP, the wholesale price would need to be around $150 or less. And with a $40 - $50 royalty cost in each box, I think it would be difficult to have a profitable HD disc player at $150 wholesale.

Drive: $50
SoC: $20
Misc: $60 (DRAM, case, power supply, HDMI chip, etc.)
Royalties: $40
--------------
Cost: $170

We haven't heard a peep about the Chinese HD DVD players since CES. And the CES announcement said they'd be here by now.

Like Thomson (RCA) and the HD-A1, you have to wonder if Toshiba's aggressive pricing has made it unprofitable to enter the HD DVD arena?

Gary

Also, on the notes there regarding the Toshiba units, haven't there been reports that Toshiba more or less 'forcing' stores to eat a loss on selling the HD-DVD players if they want to stock their other products?

[calcajun]

BTHURING,
You did the right thing for yourself. Just be patient and watch it work itself out. By then prices will be lower and you can be confident in a clear cut choice.

[WickyWoo]

It was more the assumption that these companies would turn around and make players for OEMs in the US. They didn't count that no one would be interested because of all the price slashing by the parent company selling decks at or under cost. The RAM and CPU they're using in there are close to $100 in big lots by themselves. There is no money in Chinese crap players for the CE companies to buy for OEM products.

Those companeis wanted HD-DVD because they want to try to market a more affordable alternative in China. It'll fail miserably, at least commercially (I fully expect to see a ton of pirate discs ripped from HD DVD and/or BR in it though) on the software side, but they think they might be able to sell the hardware.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by reiella

Also, on the notes there regarding the Toshiba units, haven't there been reports that Toshiba more or less 'forcing' stores to eat a loss on selling the HD-DVD players if they want to stock their other products?

I hadn't heard that.

Does Toshiba make enough compelling anything for stores to fall for that?

Gary

[doctorsteve]

Word on the wire has been that by fall of this year, the PS3 will have TiVo-like recording capability via a software download. So the size of your hard drive will determine how much you can record and store. This is particularly important for recording hi-def content. so don't kid yourself by saying hard drive size doesn't matter.

[hmurchison]

Price is imporant for many of us and currently HD DVD is the lowest price but I think you'll find that Blu-ray has some nice priced options come the later this year.

Funai has been making some noise and it appears that Wal-Mart will be hyping HD this Christmas in many of their stores.

You owe it to yourself to see how great your TV can look but it's perfectly understandable that you should wish to wait. I personally don't think you'll have long to wait. We are entering a second phase where pricing drops and sales go up.

The fun is just getting started IMO