So what if the format war never ends...

[thehappyman]

So what if the Format war never ends - in the final analysis we will still all be enjoying nice HD movies. EVENTUALLY, if the format war never ends we will have lots of DVD players that will accomodate both formats and eventually these players will be cheap..........

And in today's world, "eventually" can happen pretty quicky sometimes.

No matter what happens, most all of us will be in high resolution heaven. Personally, I can hardly wait for REALISTIC 3D in HD......... the thought is mind boggling.

[Mr.Neutral]

For it to never end, dual format players would need to be the standard.

Otherwise sales will reach a point where studios can't ignore those with the other player and will be forced to go neutral.

[nhaase]

Or, and I think more likely, it never catches on with the public and we "skip" HD optical media.

[MovieTime]

Originally Posted by nhaase

Or, and I think more likely, it never catches on with the public and we "skip" HD optical media.

That's what I'm worried about.

[Blu As Hell]

Originally Posted by nhaase

Or, and I think more likely, it never catches on with the public and we "skip" HD optical media.

We don't need this...go buy more Blu-Rays!!!!!!!!!!!!

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by thehappyman

So what if the Format war never ends - in the final analysis we will still all be enjoying nice HD movies. EVENTUALLY, if the format war never ends we will have lots of DVD players that will accomodate both formats and eventually these players will be cheap..........

And in today's world, "eventually" can happen pretty quicky sometimes.

No matter what happens, most all of us will be in high resolution heaven. Personally, I can hardly wait for REALISTIC 3D in HD......... the thought is mind boggling.

no, we won't be enjoying nice HD movies, we will be enjoying crap DLs from MS. Nobody wants a two format system, it has never worked and never will. blu-ray either wins or its dl content, there is no other way.

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by nhaase

Or, and I think more likely, it never catches on with the public and we "skip" HD optical media.

That's possible, unfortunately.

[Anthony P]

So what if the Format war never ends

because all wars end. The question is what ending will there be? will they both go away or will one become mass market. The longer there are two formats the longer people will sit on the sidelines. If they sit there long enough then they will never buy into HDOM.

[Algernon]

Originally Posted by nhaase

Or, and I think more likely, it never catches on with the public and we "skip" HD optical media.

Isn't that what M$ & Co. want? Both HD formats losing so they can sell crappy low-def movies online?

[DrinkMore]

Originally Posted by nhaase

Or, and I think more likely, it never catches on with the public and we "skip" HD optical media.

Yup.

I feel that if neither format "wins", we will skip these formats and move to anther one entirely. Either a new optical format that is 10x better, or Downloads.

Just an FYI - I will NEVER support downloaded movies. EVER!

[Irrob]

Physical media is here to stay. Never will get me to store movies on a HD vs having a sweet movie collection on my shelf.

[mikem471]

Originally Posted by Irrob

Physical media is here to stay. Never will get me to store movies on a HD vs having a sweet movie collection on my shelf.

I agree.

[scott1256ca]

Ok, we'll go on the assumption that there is never a clear winner in the HD war. So, just for the hell of it, let's fast forward 5 yrs. into the future.

DVD players can't get any cheaper than the $30-$40 they are now. So how low can an HD media player go? kjack tells me that a SoC solution today can handle everything BD needs to do (except maybe the ethernet port, I didn't ask about that, but BD-Java, PiP etc. are no SoC now). In 5 years that IC should be cheap. I'll speculate and say $10-$15 in high quantities. I hear licensing for either HD format will be in the $40 range per machine. I don't know if you'd have to double that for dual format HD, since most of the things you are licensing are common (i.e. 3 video codecs, DTS and Dolby). Let's assume the low end player will not bother with the HD audio codecs they don't require. Both BD-Live and HDi should have low licence requirements, so I'll speculate that a low-end player should licence out at $50 or so. Optical pickups should continue to drop in price, since some kind of archival media with a long shelf life will be required, regardless of HD movies, so some development should continue. I don't think the cost of a blue laser optical pickup will be that much more than for red laser in 5 yrs. So a low end HD player will cost somewhere around $100.

Also in 5 yrs, a large majority of people should have at least one HDTV (a quick google search showed >70% projected for Europe, > 90% Canada, and I would assume at least 90% US as well). Cost of producing BD or HD DVD disks should drop to very close to current dvd levels.

So, in 5 years, j6p walks into Wal-mart to pick up a new dvd player. Sees a true HD player for $100 or so, looks over at the movie rack and sees BD or HD DVD for prices not much different than dvd, $2-$3 premium maybe?. What the hell, might as well get one and see what the movies look like. Player can still play dvds, and even if he doesn't like the HD disk prices, he can rent a few to try them out.

If that scenario plays out, and I'm not saying it will, then HD will be in lots of households, and we will continue to see some HD movies on disk. I don't know if the studios will think it worthwhile to put ALL releases on HD, but the more popular ones should continue to make it.

Just playing "what if".

[mikesoba]

Originally Posted by thehappyman

So what if the Format war never ends - in the final analysis we will still all be enjoying nice HD movies. EVENTUALLY, if the format war never ends we will have lots of DVD players that will accomodate both formats and eventually these players will be cheap..........

The format war will end; it has always been this way. It will end with one format prevailing (casette over 8-track; Laserdisc over the vinyl competitor; DVD over DiVX) or it will become a small niche (SACD) that no one knows about, or the entire format will die. This dual standard will not continue forever, and I don't think will continue beyond 2008, if that long. I suggest you listen to the analysis from Standard & Poors at the following site - select "No Blues for Blu-Ray". These are public companies that make money -- they will not put up with this nonsense for long.

Select No Blues for Blu-Ray in left column

[seanjohn21276]

Microsoft's banking on the hope that this war drags on and confuses the average consumer. Enough to the point where they just say the hell with it and sticks with dvd so that their download business will be the way to go as far as high definition content.

[Coltboy]

If we are losing the war or will be losing the war soon, why are DVD Empires numbers 70-30 in our favor? at least for this week. i know they may not be reputible but i was just wondering. BTW I keep buying BD so screw you Universal and Paramont.

[Coltboy]

Originally Posted by seanjohn21276

Microsoft's banking on the hope that this war drags on and confuses the average consumer. Enough to the point where they just say the hell with it and sticks with dvd so that their download business will be the way to go as far as high definition content.

Why is everybody so hooked on downloading movies? in my experiance it has been a crap shoot when downloading movies, as far as quality, also anyone that wants the movies in a timely fasion will have to have atleast a 2 Mbit connection and around here where i live that is about $114 a month, Money i could give to Blu-Ray

[Zarathustra]

I don't wanna download movies. I like having discs because I can take the movie wherever I go (friends house, etc.). I like having discs because you can rent them. I like having discs because they look cool to collect.

Blu-ray needs to win.

[Smackos]

Originally Posted by DrinkMore

Yup.

I feel that if neither format "wins", we will skip these formats and move to anther one entirely. Either a new optical format that is 10x better, or Downloads.

Just an FYI - I will NEVER support downloaded movies. EVER!

Nor will I, I've argued across many a forum that movie downloads will never entice me. They're just not practical in this day and age for the majority of consumers. The 99% of people that still have'nt got a clue what HD is are the same 99% that have no idea or ability to get downloads to they're living room tv's.. and the other side of that coin is this.. if HD downloads were to reach that avenue via J6P's cable box then how does that impact anything he already has now. He still can watch films on tv as we speak but that does'nt stop people wanting to go out and buy our own copies. If Movie downloads hurt anything it'll be the movie rental companies like Blockbuster etc which is why Netflix is already trying to get in on that act themselves so they don't loose marketshare to that business model.

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by Irrob

Physical media is here to stay. Never will get me to store movies on a HD vs having a sweet movie collection on my shelf.

Don't forget, their plans may not include you being able to KEEP a movie on your hard drive. It may end up being a rental only period of time. Then you have to pay if you want to watch the movie again. That way they make even more money.