What's the end-game going to look like?

[What'sHD]

Back in the day when the only hd-dvd exclusive was Universal, we were confident that this holiday season would end the war. How/why did you guys see that happening? I understood that the factors were:

1. Massive PS3 sales + Cheaper BD players

2. Glut of day and date releases with massive sales thanks to installed base

How was this going to end the war? Was it that it would lead to Universal realizing that BD was the s*** and going neutral cos of lost sales? I ask cos all the above factors can/will still come true this holiday season and the same decision will be faced by Uni and now Para.


Even if they do go/would have gone neutral, how would that have led to the end for hd-dvd?

1. Studios stop releasing hd-dvds? - unlikely

2. Toshiba stops making players? - very unlikely

3. People stop buying hd-dvd players since everything is on BD? - plausible but not a slam dunk


So, in essence, what is the end-game?


P.S. Imo, if studios stop releasing on hd-dvd, it is still unfair to hd-dvd buyers, even if given clear warning (on that issue, Para has conducted itself pathetically, all for the sake of creating maximum panic and "impact" on the war. Ironically, it has created terrible publicity for them. Good going, BDA.)


P.P.S. IF scenario 3 comes true after (IF) all studios start releasing on BD, it will take quite some time until the stage is reached where BD to hd-dvd sales are so disparate that the studios can then, without disgrace, make a good, reasonable economic argument for discontinuing hd-dvd.

Looking at it in this light, the war was not going to end in any meaningful sense until at least end 2008 or later. Even if people had stopped buying hd-dvd players from march 2008 (say), to get a 10:1 ratio (big enough disparity) of effective players out there would have taken quite some time.

Perhaps some of this calculation was done by Para and thus, the 150M is just gravy plus they get to sell their titles on BD anyways in the end cos no matter what, PS3s will always have a BD players and that is a ready made market.


Welcome your opinions.