400K total standalones (BD and HD DVD) sold since inception

[Grubert]

From Video Business

Between April 2006 and August 2007, next-gen set-tops totaled just 1.3% of the overall DVD player market.

(Data DisplaySearch/NPD)

That gives us a point of reference to work out the actual numbers. If we look at the CEA DVD player sales, we can find out that DVD player sales between April 06 and August 07 were about 30,150,000 units (I had to extrapolate the last week of August). 1.3 percent of that is 391,950.

So it follows that:

Between April 2006 and August 2007, next-gen set-tops (Blu-ray and HD DVD, all models) totaled about 400,000 units.

[eat_me_cool]

Currently, high-def stand-alone players comprise a 5% unit share within the total DVD player market, according to DisplaySearch. Although that is small, that share has significantly improved in recent weeks. Between April 2006 and August 2007, next-gen set-tops totaled just 1.3% of the overall DVD player market.

Sales have increased from 1.3 to 5%, so can you predict sales from August onwards?

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by eat_me_cool

Sales have increased from 1.3 to 5%, so can you predict sales from August onwards?

Yes, we can predict about 100K-125K/month (5% of 2 to 2.5 million). Which will amount to about 400K-500K for September-December. So about 800K-900K total sales since inception to Dec 07.

FWIW DisplaySearch/NPD predicts that "by year end, there should be about 1 million Blu-ray and HD DVD set-top units sold."

[Grubert]

There's another forecast by WB:

Dan Silverberg, VP of high-def marketing for Warner Home Video, said it’s possible high-def set-top boxes could reach 1.2 million households by the end of the year.
“That’s a lot,” he admitted. “But it’s possible.”

http://www.homemediaretailing.com/ne...ticle_ID=11347

[Anthony P]

Interesting, does any one know what number of HD DVD players sold last time we got a ratio?

If it was around 150k then duing the period BD and HD DVD must have been around even. If it was around 200k then BD must have been close to 65:35 to get to 390k and 60:40 to be a bit over 400k

[SDG]

Tosh says that only 20% of the PS3's are being used to play movies. 4,500,000 PS3 sold. Thats 900,000 more players to add on to the stand alone Blu Ray player numbers. Thats a lot. The 20% is Tosh's quote. They are handing out the guns to shoot their self with.

[jorg]

teh stand alone market share is with hd dvd having 53% market share 3% dule the rest blu-ray and considering cheapst blu-ray is 200$ more shows somthign in its self and that hd dvd has been around 2 month longer too

[Firestreak]

But how many non-gamers are buying PS3s as opposed to standalones just because it's low-price, high quality, full of other media features and is the best supported via firmware? The question to me isn't how many gamers are using blu-ray, that's a sales boost. The question is how many non-gamers are buying the PS3, that's a question of market trend of Blu-ray vs HD DVD when you factor that standalones are going to ramp up much faster than video game systems.

If just 5% of people are using it as a Blu-ray player only, that's of 4 million... 200,000. If HD DVDs standalones are only 3% more popular than blu-ray, of 400,000, then the reality is that Blu-ray standalones are more popular 3-2.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by SDG

Tosh says that only 20% of the PS3's are being used to play movies. 4,500,000 PS3 sold. Thats 900,000 more players to add on to the stand alone Blu Ray player numbers. Thats a lot. The 20% is Tosh's quote. They are handing out the guns to shoot their self with.

We should be careful about using worldwide or US (or North America). For the US and Canada I think they are a little over 2 million now. I'm doubting that 20% of PS3s in PAL regions are using it for Blu-ray movies at this point, but hopefully that will get better with time.

--Darin