Will disc pricing be key for Q4? - Blu-ray Forum

galperi1 · 11-11-2007, 03:12 AM

As Q4 is under way I can't help but think these sales we are seeing from the BDA are genius.

Yes, HD-DVD's can be had for super cheap ($99-$199), but let's be real... someone spending that little for a player will not be purchasing $30 media at the same rate that someone spending $300+ on a player will. So while Toshiba is going the route of cheap players to attract buyers, the BDA seems to be doing the opposite but with discs.

I think this is a very calculated move and a smart one that might pay off for several reasons

1) With a bigger delta between disc costs, as you get start buying more and more, the cost savings alone in discs make it potentially cheaper to own Blu-Ray than HD-DVD in total ownership costs.

2) The more volume it sells, the more retailers will give it more space which would probably lead to less space for HD-DVD and better market penetration for Blu. We all know that retailers love anything that can sell more.

3) Similar to what we are seeing on the SAL front, the cheaper the price, the bigger audience that you will attract to your product. While I'm not advocating they sell everything this cheap all the time, but if they can do these sales every couple weeks and triple/quadruple sales, they will sell a lot more and in the end profit more on higher volume

We'll see what happens, but Q4 has started out with a bang.....

What does everyone else think?

HK-48 · 11-11-2007, 03:30 AM

Not to mention that people who spend $99 on a player are more likely to rent all their titles over buying them. And more titles sold is more important to studios than players sold.

bluperch · 11-11-2007, 03:40 AM

I can't afford to buy discs at retail prices. If not for all of these sales I wouldn't have very many blu-ray discs right now. I spent a lot on my PS3 and that blew pretty much my whole budget. No way could I then start paying $34 a disc. So with their sales they've gotten me to buy discs I never would have bought otherwise.

HK-48 · 11-11-2007, 04:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluperch

I can't afford to buy discs at retail prices. If not for all of these sales I wouldn't have very many blu-ray discs right now. I spent a lot on my PS3 and that blew pretty much my whole budget. No way could I then start paying $34 a disc. So with their sales they've gotten me to buy discs I never would have bought otherwise.

That's why it's good that Blockbuster is on our side~

toolman46and2 · 11-11-2007, 04:07 AM

Until about a month and a half ago, I had about 25 Blu-ray discs. After the buy one get one a month ago and the Frys 12 dollar sale, I now have 84. I think I am averaging about 14 dollars a disc. If it weren't for the sales of late, I could not have bought these.

T-Wrecks · 11-11-2007, 04:23 AM

plain and simple. Differences in disc cost have minimal impact.

Skyhawk · 11-11-2007, 04:32 AM

I think the whole $199 versus $299+ thing is a little silly when you think we adults are buying our kids PS3s to use in rooms for much more. Then add the newest iPod in their stockings... you get the picture.

The PS3s low attach rate can be explained by parents buying them for our kids for in-their-room use on their SD TVs. But market penetration for PS3s is a sleeping giant. When families finally decide to buy that HDTV this Christmas or next, I suspect they will be more apt to eventually buy into a format compatible with little Johnny's PS3 so that he can watch Spidy 3 upstairs over and over whenever he wants. The format that makes it first into the home is more likely to influence future purchase decisions. It's a strategy that will take at least a couple years to realize which is why current sales stats and current studio support means nothing.

HD DVDs major mistake IMO was Microsoft not including an HD DVD with the XBox 360. Why buy the HD DVD add-on when little Johnny has a standard TV in his room. I'd like to see the percentage of families that bought HDTVs for their kids rooms, but I suspect it to be small and remain so over the next couple years. There is just little incentive to buy an add-on right now.

Most kid's big ticket items are bought for Christmas, and I suspect that more PS3s will sell this holiday season for $399 than last Christmas when they were going for $1,500 on eBay. It's interesting that Sony decided to include Spidy 3 with each player, and the 5 free mail-aways. This simply educates the parents that this is more than a gaming machine, but a Blu-ray player and reinforces the fact that they've now bought into a format even though they might not even have an HDTV yet. Normally gaming consoles come with a free game

Sure price means something and you can get J6P who probably can't afford to get their kids a PS3 but own a 720p LCD to buy a $99 1080i A2 during a ONE DAY sale. But 90,000 players sold (given away actually) is NOTHING in this war in the longterm. Format penetration has to be measured in the millions, and I doubt that Toshiba will offer 10 million players for $99 to start. It's pretty obvious why other third party manufacturers don't offer stand-alone HD DVD players like they do for Blu-ray. And in the consumer's eyes, it makes it look like a proprietary format - much like Sony BETA, and it is by definition. The Venturer Chinese players due for November 8th? still haven't appeared, and probably wont now that Toshiba has undercut them with the old A2 and discounted A3s.

Clark Kent · 11-11-2007, 04:37 AM

With all of their sales Blu-ray has consistently had the cheaper disc prices than HD DVD. And that is not even counting the fact that HD DVD has those overpriced combos. HD DVD studios have no incentive to lower their disc pricing because none of them have a vested interest in the long term health of HD DVD because there getting financial incentives/deals from Toshiba to be HD DVD exclusive.

Skyhawk · 11-11-2007, 04:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

And that is not even counting the fact that HD DVD has those overpriced combos.

Good points, especially the combos. This silly marketing mistake seems to be the norm now for HD DVD, and I have to wonder who in their freakin' right mind would spend nearly $40 for movies like "Knocked up" simply because it include a SD version? Also consumers do not like reading the fine print on two-sided disks to ensure they play the right version and losing the printed graphics on one side that at least plainly indicates "this side up"!

I never liked two sided disks with standard DVDs found in the Walmart through-away bins, and I doubt consumers will warm up to this idea with high priced HDM. This silly idea is just another nail in the HD DVD coffin IMO.

mystiksuicide · 11-11-2007, 05:55 AM

There are many variables in this format war. Hardware price, media price and most important media availability.

Yes, media price is very important but does it even matter if the titles you are looking for are not available?

bluperch · 11-11-2007, 01:57 PM

I'm with skyhawk (re: PS3s). Once those people start buying HDTVs ya know they're going to be buying discs. As I've said before, I think the PS3 is going to be a major factor in this "war" if not the determining factor (just as the PS2 played a big role in converting people to DVD).

joeorc · 11-11-2007, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by galperi1

As Q4 is under way I can't help but think these sales we are seeing from the BDA are genius.

Yes, HD-DVD's can be had for super cheap ($99-$199), but let's be real... someone spending that little for a player will not be purchasing $30 media at the same rate that someone spending $300+ on a player will. So while Toshiba is going the route of cheap players to attract buyers, the BDA seems to be doing the opposite but with discs.

I think this is a very calculated move and a smart one that might pay off for several reasons

1) With a bigger delta between disc costs, as you get start buying more and more, the cost savings alone in discs make it potentially cheaper to own Blu-Ray than HD-DVD in total ownership costs.

2) The more volume it sells, the more retailers will give it more space which would probably lead to less space for HD-DVD and better market penetration for Blu. We all know that retailers love anything that can sell more.

3) Similar to what we are seeing on the SAL front, the cheaper the price, the bigger audience that you will attract to your product. While I'm not advocating they sell everything this cheap all the time, but if they can do these sales every couple weeks and triple/quadruple sales, they will sell a lot more and in the end profit more on higher volume

We'll see what happens, but Q4 has started out with a bang.....

What does everyone else think?

that is exactly what i have been saying for a while the Disc cost is the best advantage Blu-Ray has over HD DVD and i think The BDA is going to keep playing this trump card low cost players is one thing but if your content just sits on the shelf while more and more of of Blu-Ray content keeps selling thats a big problem for HD DVD. Higher cost hardware right now is not the BDA's problem, thats not the problem its the cost of the MEDIA itself. which the BDA know's look what happened when TF hit the shelf and the BDA had the BOGO free sale. the faster they can get the DISC prices down the faster people will pick up the Blu-Ray players. people can see paying more for hardware if the content is cheaper..but ask the reverse..and people just do not see that.

and that is exactly what HD DVD is asking buy our hardware but out content is more expensive
the BDA buy our content but our players are a little more expensive .

JAGUAR1977 · 11-11-2007, 10:54 PM

The genius of disc sales is that it not only rewards current owners, many of which are early adopters who paid top dollar for their players, it also encourages PS3 owners who may still be using DVD to take the plunge.

kowhite · 11-12-2007, 03:40 AM

I know I'll be buying a lot of movies.

After the Pixar movies, I decided to take a week off before Die Hard.

Now, I just bought two movies off J&R, and I'm buying more off Amazon. Lemme tell ya...these sales do but one thing...get me to buy when I had no intention to. And I love it. Do I need Into the Blue? No, but for $9.99, Jessica Alba in HD sounds excellent.

edgebsl · 11-12-2007, 03:55 AM

Seeing how Pirates 2 is doing right now...
I think an agressively priced Pirates 3 would make history.

bluperch · 11-12-2007, 04:43 AM

Ya know, it's getting tougher and tougher finding blu-ray discs at full retail. You'd pretty much have to go out of your way to pay full price anymore.

ESUNintel · 11-12-2007, 04:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluperch

I'm with skyhawk (re: PS3s). Once those people start buying HDTVs ya know they're going to be buying discs. As I've said before, I think the PS3 is going to be a major factor in this "war" if not the determining factor (just as the PS2 played a big role in converting people to DVD).

Lots of people buying HDTV's are buying the PS3 along with it. A lot of families I've sold HDTV's too end up buying a PS3 rather than a stand alone player, that way everyone cn enjoy BD movies, and the kids can enjoy the gaming side of it. There's also many that prefer a stand alone player cause of looks and to be able to use their Harmony Remote.

...but Sony is doing a good job at pushing the PS3 as a Blu player.

Whytewash · 11-12-2007, 05:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluperch

Ya know, it's getting tougher and tougher finding blu-ray discs at full retail. You'd pretty much have to go out of your way to pay full price anymore.

naahhhhh... any best buy will do! haha

aphex · 11-12-2007, 06:23 AM

If they are key to winning this war, then we're gonna win fo sho

Pestilence · 11-12-2007, 06:41 AM

Cheaper disc pricing is definitely a good thing but I'm looking forward to seeing a cheaper Samsung BD-P1400 or a cheap Funai player ($350 or lower) with big endcaps at Walmart. Big Blu needs to sap some of the momentum out of the HD DVD camp if they want to continue going into 2008 strong.

11-11-2007, 03:12 AM	#1
galperi1 Active Member Member since:Oct 2007	Will disc pricing be key for Q4? As Q4 is under way I can't help but think these sales we are seeing from the BDA are genius. Yes, HD-DVD's can be had for super cheap ($99-$199), but let's be real... someone spending that little for a player will not be purchasing $30 media at the same rate that someone spending $300+ on a player will. So while Toshiba is going the route of cheap players to attract buyers, the BDA seems to be doing the opposite but with discs. I think this is a very calculated move and a smart one that might pay off for several reasons 1) With a bigger delta between disc costs, as you get start buying more and more, the cost savings alone in discs make it potentially cheaper to own Blu-Ray than HD-DVD in total ownership costs. 2) The more volume it sells, the more retailers will give it more space which would probably lead to less space for HD-DVD and better market penetration for Blu. We all know that retailers love anything that can sell more. 3) Similar to what we are seeing on the SAL front, the cheaper the price, the bigger audience that you will attract to your product. While I'm not advocating they sell everything this cheap all the time, but if they can do these sales every couple weeks and triple/quadruple sales, they will sell a lot more and in the end profit more on higher volume We'll see what happens, but Q4 has started out with a bang..... What does everyone else think?

11-11-2007, 04:23 AM	#6
T-Wrecks Active Member Member since:Jul 2007	Saturation... plain and simple. Differences in disc cost have minimal impact.

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11-11-2007, 03:30 AM	#2
HK-48 Active Member Member since:Aug 2007	Not to mention that people who spend $99 on a player are more likely to rent all their titles over buying them. And more titles sold is more important to studios than players sold.

11-11-2007, 03:40 AM	#3
bluperch Active Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Lakewood, CO	I can't afford to buy discs at retail prices. If not for all of these sales I wouldn't have very many blu-ray discs right now. I spent a lot on my PS3 and that blew pretty much my whole budget. No way could I then start paying $34 a disc. So with their sales they've gotten me to buy discs I never would have bought otherwise.

11-11-2007, 04:07 AM	#5
toolman46and2 Active Member Member since:Jun 2007 Blu-ray collection:46 Trading Score:2	Until about a month and a half ago, I had about 25 Blu-ray discs. After the buy one get one a month ago and the Frys 12 dollar sale, I now have 84. I think I am averaging about 14 dollars a disc. If it weren't for the sales of late, I could not have bought these.

11-11-2007, 04:32 AM	#7
Skyhawk Member Member since:Nov 2007	I think the whole $199 versus $299+ thing is a little silly when you think we adults are buying our kids PS3s to use in rooms for much more. Then add the newest iPod in their stockings... you get the picture. The PS3s low attach rate can be explained by parents buying them for our kids for in-their-room use on their SD TVs. But market penetration for PS3s is a sleeping giant. When families finally decide to buy that HDTV this Christmas or next, I suspect they will be more apt to eventually buy into a format compatible with little Johnny's PS3 so that he can watch Spidy 3 upstairs over and over whenever he wants. The format that makes it first into the home is more likely to influence future purchase decisions. It's a strategy that will take at least a couple years to realize which is why current sales stats and current studio support means nothing. HD DVDs major mistake IMO was Microsoft not including an HD DVD with the XBox 360. Why buy the HD DVD add-on when little Johnny has a standard TV in his room. I'd like to see the percentage of families that bought HDTVs for their kids rooms, but I suspect it to be small and remain so over the next couple years. There is just little incentive to buy an add-on right now. Most kid's big ticket items are bought for Christmas, and I suspect that more PS3s will sell this holiday season for $399 than last Christmas when they were going for $1,500 on eBay. It's interesting that Sony decided to include Spidy 3 with each player, and the 5 free mail-aways. This simply educates the parents that this is more than a gaming machine, but a Blu-ray player and reinforces the fact that they've now bought into a format even though they might not even have an HDTV yet. Normally gaming consoles come with a free game Sure price means something and you can get J6P who probably can't afford to get their kids a PS3 but own a 720p LCD to buy a $99 1080i A2 during a ONE DAY sale. But 90,000 players sold (given away actually) is NOTHING in this war in the longterm. Format penetration has to be measured in the millions, and I doubt that Toshiba will offer 10 million players for $99 to start. It's pretty obvious why other third party manufacturers don't offer stand-alone HD DVD players like they do for Blu-ray. And in the consumer's eyes, it makes it look like a proprietary format - much like Sony BETA, and it is by definition. The Venturer Chinese players due for November 8th? still haven't appeared, and probably wont now that Toshiba has undercut them with the old A2 and discounted A3s.

11-11-2007, 04:37 AM	#8
Clark Kent Blu-ray Prince Top contributor Member since:Oct 2007 Location:Metropolis Blu-ray reviews:2 Trading Score:184	With all of their sales Blu-ray has consistently had the cheaper disc prices than HD DVD. And that is not even counting the fact that HD DVD has those overpriced combos. HD DVD studios have no incentive to lower their disc pricing because none of them have a vested interest in the long term health of HD DVD because there getting financial incentives/deals from Toshiba to be HD DVD exclusive.

11-11-2007, 05:55 AM	#10
mystiksuicide Blu-ray Guru Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Miami Blu-ray collection:305 Blu-ray reviews:27	There are many variables in this format war. Hardware price, media price and most important media availability. Yes, media price is very important but does it even matter if the titles you are looking for are not available?

11-11-2007, 01:57 PM	#11
bluperch Active Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Lakewood, CO	I'm with skyhawk (re: PS3s). Once those people start buying HDTVs ya know they're going to be buying discs. As I've said before, I think the PS3 is going to be a major factor in this "war" if not the determining factor (just as the PS2 played a big role in converting people to DVD).

11-11-2007, 10:54 PM	#13
JAGUAR1977 Special Member Member since:Aug 2007 Blu-ray reviews:1	The genius of disc sales is that it not only rewards current owners, many of which are early adopters who paid top dollar for their players, it also encourages PS3 owners who may still be using DVD to take the plunge.

11-12-2007, 03:40 AM	#14
kowhite Active Member Member since:Aug 2007 4K collection:119 Blu-ray collection:727 DVD collection:3 Trading Score:65	I know I'll be buying a lot of movies. After the Pixar movies, I decided to take a week off before Die Hard. Now, I just bought two movies off J&R, and I'm buying more off Amazon. Lemme tell ya...these sales do but one thing...get me to buy when I had no intention to. And I love it. Do I need Into the Blue? No, but for $9.99, Jessica Alba in HD sounds excellent.

11-12-2007, 03:55 AM	#15
edgebsl Active Member Member since:Sep 2007 Blu-ray collection:3	Seeing how Pirates 2 is doing right now... I think an agressively priced Pirates 3 would make history.

11-12-2007, 04:43 AM	#16
bluperch Active Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Lakewood, CO	Ya know, it's getting tougher and tougher finding blu-ray discs at full retail. You'd pretty much have to go out of your way to pay full price anymore.

11-12-2007, 06:23 AM	#19
aphex Special Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Scottsdale Blu-ray reviews:1 Trading Score:4	If they are key to winning this war, then we're gonna win fo sho

11-12-2007, 06:41 AM	#20
Pestilence Member Member since:Dec 2006	Cheaper disc pricing is definitely a good thing but I'm looking forward to seeing a cheaper Samsung BD-P1400 or a cheap Funai player ($350 or lower) with big endcaps at Walmart. Big Blu needs to sap some of the momentum out of the HD DVD camp if they want to continue going into 2008 strong.

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