The official think tank of the future of HDM thread.

[tron3]

The purpose of this thread is to come up with reasonable forecasts for the future of High Def Media (HDM) and hopefully scour some insider information along the way.

I'll be repeating myself to many of you, but hopefully the newbies learn how to analyze the situation and not just predict blu-ray the winner "because HD DVD sucks". My thoughts follow.

* Paramount / Deamworks. Status: Hands contractually tied until December 2008 for exclusive HD DVD support. We been hoping for a contract loophole, or buy out so we can see many of our beloved movies back on blu-ray. Thus far, there is no evidence of which we hope. Prediction: Back to neutrality at the end of the contract.

* Warner Brothers. Status: Blissfully neutral, but their offerings on blu-ray are bastardized HD DVD converts. "The Bi-Polar Express" was one such horror. Looks every bit of the 15GB transfer to BD. Their 30GB offerings are acceptable, but not great. The bit rates simply are not there. Prediction: Some hope of better and /or exclusive BD support. Maybe an announcment after this Christmas season. We are likely to continue seeing the HD DVD media converts, but with improved sound. Seemingly riding the coat tails of the Paramount / Dreamworks contract while buddying up with Universal.

* Universal. Status: HD DVD exclusive. Little to go on here except they say they think HD DVD is the better solution. Maybe not riding the coat tails of the Paramount / Dreamworks contract, but watching the industry. Prediction: Some chance of neutral support after the Christmas season. Otherwise, they will dig in their heels until Paramount is back to being neutral. At which point, they would be fools not to follow suit. If they become the last hold out for BD, they might just be the fatal blow to HD DVD and go exclusive. After all, how much love will be lost from Toshiba if no money changed hands? Neutral support is more likely.

Conclusion: I would not expect any more overnight revelations - at least not until 1st quarter of 2008. Assuming both camps are smart, they will see the pattern repeat. About a 2:1 BD advantage which may not waiver enough to decide a technical knockout winner. Recognizing stalemate, they will either continue to hurt the adoption rate of HDM or make a move. Business men know not to sit still in business. Everyone is watching and the watchers are being watched back. Moves will be made. Hopefully blu ones.

I see the remaining camps going neutral first, and may or may not drop HD DVD in the process. Three HD DVD supporting studios isn't much, but if one is gutsy enough to drop HD DVD, the remaining two will know the hand writing is on the wall and follow. I would be very surprised to see this last longer than a few more years.

Thoughts? Inside information?

[mystiksuicide]

Very well written with much thought behind it. I think the only subject matter that wasn't touched was the players themselves.

We are seeing the price of the blu players dropping making them more affordable to joe-six pack. I also think the addition of 5 free blu movies to the PS3 will remove that "Many PS3 owners don't even know they have a blu-ray player".

With the increasing numbers of PS3 players and stand alone players being sold the next six months should see the 2:1 ratio move to 3:1

[househead]

Originally Posted by tron3

The purpose of this thread is to come up with reasonable forecasts for the future of High Def Media (HDM) and hopefully scour some insider information along the way.

since you are speculating:

how about weinstein going neutral or blu-ray only?

how about lionsgate going neutral?

[tron3]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

Very well written with much thought behind it. I think the only subject matter that wasn't touched was the players themselves. ...

Hate to sound glib, but when BD is the only game in town, the price point is moot. People either pay the cost or wait for prices to come down. Competition among BD player manufactures should do that nicely. Within 3 to 5 years, all players could be below $250, which is a rather acceptable price point for players of this quality.

Perhaps Universal really thinks the player price will hurt their BD sales. They must not be looking at the 2:1 ratio in favor of camp blu. "Support it. They will come." Unfortunately, that mantra works for HD DVD as well.

Originally Posted by househead

since you are speculating:

how about weinstein going neutral or blu-ray only?

how about lionsgate going neutral?

In the team of blu-ray movies, I see either of these studios as "second string". Therefore, either of these guys going BD exclusive is a knock on the chin of the "first string" studios. Namely, the ones we wait for with blu-baited breath. Smaller studios have an impact ONLY if they release their best movies in a timely fashion. Face it, no one is swaying this war with "Gili".

I'm actually not sure of their support in HDM so I can't give a good speculation. But generally, either going neutral to HD DVD hurts the cause because it further divides the camps down the middle. But going neutral to BD helps us because it still one more studio under our belt we may not have had.

Now, either going exclusive to either camp, well, we know how that plays out. We either cheer or cry. But BD Exclusive is definately in our favor.

[Clark Kent]

While the studios all collaborate to an extent, in the end each studio does what is best it thinks for its own business. If either Warner went Blu-ray exclusive or Universal went neutral, the game would be over for HD DVD. My guess is that Paramount has an out in its contract if a "significant change" in market conditions occurs. I do think it is more likely that Warner would choose a side before Universal goes neutral. The smaller independent studios will eventually go neutral or Blu-ray exclusive. It makes too little financial sense for them to go HD DVD exclusive unless Toshiba/Paramount starts paying them off. I have to believe that Weinstein had a specific contract with HD DVD for the duration of 2007 and a minimum number of titles. Their movie catalog fitted the demographics of Blu-ray better anyway.

[Manco]

Add to your Universal prediction:
- Universal acquires Dreamworks.
- Spielberg pressures Studio to go neutral 2008 then exclusive 2009.

[BadAss]

My prediction is Wal-mart will go Blu-ry exclusive in 2008. This has the effect of every other retailer going Blu-ray exclusive which has the knock on effect of WB going BD exclusive, Universal going BD exclusive and eventually Para going BD exclusive.

HD-DVD has climbed the cliff alone, and now needs the push off the edge which everyones been waiting for since the war began.

[buckshot]

I predict that I am put on trial for shoving some idtios xbox add on drive down his throat then beating him senseless with his xbox.



I will be aquitted.

add/edit:
beating them senseless depends greatly upon the xbox actually being durable enough to take being moved.

[Rike255]

Originally Posted by BadAss

My prediction is Wal-mart will go Blu-ry exclusive in 2008. This has the effect of every other retailer going Blu-ray exclusive which has the knock on effect of WB going BD exclusive, Universal going BD exclusive and eventually Para going BD exclusive.

HD-DVD has climbed the cliff alone, and now needs the push off the edge which everyones been waiting for since the war began.

Walmart's not gonna go exclusive. They'll sell players as long as they continue to sell. While the demand is there so will be the supply.
A company would have to pay Walmart a LOT of money just to get the chance to talk to their executives about making a contract to go exclusive. The only company with enough money to do that is...well Walmart.