No need to be excited/gloat over NPD this week...for either side

[stockstar1138]

So blu-ray handed a clear 2:1 smackdown to hd dvd hardware this week, however there are some things that we need to consider before we go around claiming that these numbers have put hd dvd 6 feet under, and that these numbers are truly 2:1.

1. Wal-mart is not included in these totals. Now while I have been a staunch FUDbuster of a lot of HD DVD fanboys claims that Wal-mart sells this incredibly high amount of software and that the Nielsens are skewed every week because of it, despite most stores having more blu-ray software for sale, I think a lot of us could agree that Wal-mart stocks and most likely sells more hd dvd hardware.

2. A lot of these blu-ray players are getting given away with HDTVs. There is no guarentee when something is given away that it is going to be used. Giving away a blu-ray player with a HDTV did not allow the consumer to choose blu-ray, it forced it on him, meaning while we get a tally in the blu column for the week, it might be a false tally, meaning blu-ray numbers are higher than they should be.

3. HD DVD showed a very large increase in sales, despite many saying the format is dead. A dead format should not be selling at any price and the fact that HD DVD had a 500% increase, means it is not as dead as we might have hoped.

4. Blu-ray sales dropped 25%. 25% is statistically significant and one has to assume that there were a statistically significant amount of people this week who chose HD DVD instead of blu-ray. With the super bowl next week, HDTV sales should have been up, meaning blu-ray sales should have been up, but they wern't.

Now to look at why HD DVD might not have sold as well. These factors cannot be ignored as HD DVD might not have done nearly as well as some red boys want to believe.

1. Game consoles were not included. While PS3 surely destroyed the add-on in sales, even assuming even the standard 20% of PS3 owners use blu-ray and 1/3 of all HD DVD players sold are the add on we get a number that looks like this. PS3 used for BD - approx. 10k (using vgcharts). xbox add on - approx. 3000. Blu-ray picks up approx. a 7k lead right here. People are buying the PS3 for blu-ray and this is certainly eating up into standalone

2. Many HD DVD players were probably sold as upconverting players, meaning a similar effect as blu-ray players being given away with HDTVs.

3. Stores are feeling the need to lower HD DVD prices (avg. Price was $137) below the already ridiculously low priced/low margin MSRP. Meaning stores MAY be trying to liquidating inventory. I know blu-ray is sold lower than MSRP to, but blu-ray MSRPs are still very high and not being set due to desperation.

4. Many players were bought as "backup" players.

5. Many players were bought by blu-ray fans simply as a relatively cheap, temporary solution to not having Universal/Paramount content, with no intention to ever truly support HD DVD.

any more factors? thoughts?

[nhaase]

I do not remember all the deals on BD players bundled w/ TVs, but many times the bundle is one where you buy both and get a rebate which covers the price of the player. The players aren't "forced" onto people, persay, but why pass it up? The rebates could either be instant or mail-in, and that makes a difference, as some people don't trust mail-ins. If a player were "forced" on these people, they would HAVE to get the player to get the TV, but that is not the case and they can just get the TV if they would like.

Also, the fall of BD player sales probably reflects a decrease in giveaway deals , if that happened.

Some good points, though, Stockstar.

[dobyblue]

I think with the drastic price slashes that the numbers are totally embarrassing for HD DVD.

[Sporty]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

4. Blu-ray sales dropped 25%. 25% is statistically significant and one has to assume that there were a statistically significant amount of people this week who chose HD DVD instead of blu-ray. With the super bowl next week, HDTV sales should have been up, meaning blu-ray sales should have been up, but they wern't.

I personally don't see it that way. BD SA sales were strong last time coming off strong releases, like 3:10 to Yuma and such. Now they are only slightly up from average. I don't think HD-DVD has anything to do with that.

[blujacket]

I bet most of the dead sales are current owners buying backup players.

[greekjgg]

Software sales is the ultimate guage right now and we win that handidly.

Hardware sales are not reliable as you don't know how many of these units are:

1. Repeat customers buying a 2nd unit
2. Upconvert customers
3. Add on sales with HDTV financing add on's who at a minimum have a cheap upconverter that can play some hidef movies.

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

1. Wal-mart is not included in these totals. Now while I have been a staunch FUDbuster of a lot of HD DVD fanboys claims that Wal-mart sells this incredibly high amount of software and that the Nielsens are skewed every week because of it, despite most stores having more blu-ray software for sale, I think a lot of us could agree that Wal-mart stocks and most likely sells more hd dvd hardware.

Inclusion or exclusion of stores is irrelevant. It's not like the list of stores included changed. We've always used those numbers and will continue to use them as a benchmark.

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

2. A lot of these blu-ray players are getting given away with HDTVs. There is no guarentee when something is given away that it is going to be used. Giving away a blu-ray player with a HDTV did not allow the consumer to choose blu-ray, it forced it on him, meaning while we get a tally in the blu column for the week, it might be a false tally, meaning blu-ray numbers are higher than they should be.

Did it occur to you that perhaps the customers bought their new HDTV's BECAUSE they were getting a free Blu-Ray player with it...not inspite of it?

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

3. HD DVD showed a very large increase in sales, despite many saying the format is dead. A dead format should not be selling at any price and the fact that HD DVD had a 500% increase, means it is not as dead as we might have hoped.

Bargain shoppers will always purchase bargains... even though they probably will never use or buy HD DUD movies--> PROVEN with the 83:17 Blu-Ray win on a non BOGO week... the same week currently being discussed about with the 500% increase for DUD players. Then there is the die hard HD DUD fans that probably picked up more then half the players sold.

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

4. Blu-ray sales dropped 25%. 25% is statistically significant and one has to assume that there were a statistically significant amount of people this week who chose HD DVD instead of blu-ray. With the super bowl next week, HDTV sales should have been up, meaning blu-ray sales should have been up, but they wern't.

I think very few people chose HD DVD over Blu-Ray. I think this particular week, more people chose the PS3 over stand alones. As for the Super Bowl approaching... perhaps there were more free bundles the week before or perhaps the Super Bowl shoppers do their shopping early... who knows?

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

2. Many HD DVD players were probably sold as upconverting players, meaning a similar effect as blu-ray players being given away with HDTVs.

Blu-Ray players being given with HDTV's is NOTHING like HD DUD players being sold as upconverters: The person that purchases DUD knows that he won't be able to watch High Def movies because they are mostly released on Blu-Ray.

[buckshot]

the walmart in poway, ca has had the same hd dvd player for sale there for months. it has been bought and returned twice. they sell close to 0 hd dvds. so maybe its different in other areas. but I think its just dellusion.

[CAB]

Why still compare and contrast BD sales with HD DVD? Why look at sales figures at all in the first quarter? This is a dead time and, as all blu-ray.com insiders have confirmed, Paramount, Dreamworks, and Universal are prepping for the inevitable.

[WriteSimply]

You put out arguments that you then argue against in the same post.

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

1. Wal-mart is not included in these totals.

Hold this thought.

2. A lot of these blu-ray players are getting given away with HDTVs. There is no guarentee when something is given away that it is going to be used.

HD DVD players are cheaper now than ever. But it doesn't mean that the units sold at Wal-Mart are gonna ever be used as HD DVD players. You are right in that the BD players given away may suffer the same fate.

However contemplate on this. Last week when NPD said that their data did not show a downhill trend for HD-DVD and that the increase in BD players were factored by it being given away with HDTV sales. Regardless of how that is spun, consumers were spending A LOT more money on buying HDTVs than on a HD-DVD player. Even when the BD player is given away, retailers are HAPPY that they moved that many HDTVs because it means more profit margins for them from the sale of the HDTVs. Consumers feel happy they got something out of "nothing", retailers are happy to be selling. ON THE FLIP SIDE, HD DVD players alone do not generate that much margin. Combined with low unit sales, it makes retailers wonder why they are wasting shelf and warehouse space for these HD DVD players.

3. HD DVD showed a very large increase in sales, despite many saying the format is dead.

You mean software or hardware? If it's hardware, my argument is above.

4. Blu-ray sales dropped 25%. 25% is statistically significant and one has to assume that there were a statistically significant amount of people this week who chose HD DVD instead of blu-ray.

That would have to be a wrong assumption because of what you argued above. We also don't know the percentage of BD players sold as is and those given away.

With the super bowl next week, HDTV sales should have been up, meaning blu-ray sales should have been up, but they wern't.

The range of HDTVs that are part of the BD promotion are limited. Again, we don't know the ratios of how much BD players were sold and how much was given away. More importantly to this argument, we don't even know how much of HDTV units were moved in the same period.

1. Game consoles were not included.

The more PS3s sold, the lower the BD attach rates for them. But that's not necessarily bad since 10% of PS3s sold is STILL a lot!

2. Many HD DVD players were probably sold as upconverting players, meaning a similar effect as blu-ray players being given away with HDTVs.

NPD didn't remark if HDTVs had similar offers. Maybe not as a campaign but each stores or retailer chain may have something similar. And of course this is gleaned over by HD DVD fanatics.

3. Stores are feeling the need to lower HD DVD prices (avg. Price was $137) below the already ridiculously low priced/low margin MSRP. Meaning stores MAY be trying to liquidating inventory.

Well if we see HD DVD hardware sales continues to dip, then we'll know that retailers are liquidating inventory and not taking more stock and/or people are just not buying these fire-sale units anymore.

4. Many players were bought as "backup" players.

I was thinkin' of buying an 80GB PS3 just for the SACD support.

5. Many players were bought by blu-ray fans simply as a relatively cheap, temporary solution to not having Universal/Paramount content, with no intention to ever truly support HD DVD.

Tar and feather them!!!


fuad

[Grubert]

I see it as a series of one-off weeks:

- CW02 was influenced by the Warner announcement
- CW03 was influenced by slashed HD DVD prices

There is bound to be some mass effect (either panic or buying frenzy). Subsequent weeks should give us a more reliable picture (barring any other cataclysmic developments).

[LordGamer]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

Software sales is the ultimate guage right now and we win that handidly.

Hardware sales are not reliable as you don't know how many of these units are:

1. Repeat customers buying a 2nd unit
2. Upconvert customers
3. Add on sales with HDTV financing add on's who at a minimum have a cheap upconverter that can play some hidef movies.

Ditto and I love your avatar.

But really, this has been discussed. Software is what counts. Furthermore, speculation aside, the bottomline is Blu-ray standalones are outselling HD DVD players. Considering Blu-ray players cost significantly more, the ratio doesn't really matter. People want the better product, period.

All Toshi has ever done basically is lower prices. Not market their product better, not make better relations with others in the industry, just fire sale. And what happens boys and girls every fire sale, they sell units for a bit, then Blu continues to stomp them. The only difference now, even with rock bottom prices, they aren't able to make any significant change.

And might I add, this also is one of (many) the reasons that proves the nonsense and dramatization HD DVD fanboys spew about "profile issues," is not a concern to consumers. The majority of current Blu standalone players are only 1.0 capable. Yet, they have been outselling or matching HD DVD (even before the Warner annoucement) for months.

That is my biggest pet peeve... HD DVD fanboys going ape poop about how "Blu-ray is an incomplete format" and "1.0 players are obsolete," blah, blah, blah. I guess consumers are crazy for being more concerned with having a wide variety of movie selection, instead of watching a guy in a 2" box while buying official replica movie garbage online from their player.

[KretzJ]

Originally Posted by blujacket

I bet most of the dead sales are current owners buying backup players.

Agreed. I saw LOTS of posts like this on HD-DVD forums... people were snagging 2 or 3 as spares... in their words, "When they stop selling players I want a stock of them so I don't have to throw away the discs".

That said, it's not a HUGE percentage of sales.

-John K.

[mystiksuicide]

Cris tells me that many of the customers choose particular TV's because it did include a Blu-Ray. So it might have been free but by no means does it mean it wasn't wanted

[chrisshea]

they say over 2.2 million hdTv's will be bought arpund Superbowl time and im wondering how come sales numbers of blu-rays players is soo low
they say the bundled players are accounted for but if they sell 2 million tvs and like all the sony pionner panasonic and sharp tv give away a blu-ray that would be like 1.5-2.0 million tvs and blu-ray players
is it just me or do numbers not make sense

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by unreal1080p

Inclusion or exclusion of stores is irrelevant. It's not like the list of stores included changed. We've always used those numbers and will continue to use them as a benchmark.

and while we use NPD as a benchmark and it is the same set of stores. We need not to get excited about 2:1 sales numbers when Walmart is excluded and hardware wise they seem to sell more HD DVD hardware. All I'm saying is the true numbers might not have been 2:1 like NPD said.



Did it occur to you that perhaps the customers bought their new HDTV's BECAUSE they were getting a free Blu-Ray player with it...not inspite of it?

an HDTV is a much bigger seller in stores than a blu-ray player. More people went into the stores looking for a 1080p tv and then found out they got a free blu-ray player and may or may not use it versus people getting excited because they got a free blu-ray player and purchasing an HDTV because of it.

Bargain shoppers will always purchase bargains... even though they probably will never use or buy HD DUD movies--> PROVEN with the 83:17 Blu-Ray win on a non BOGO week... the same week currently being discussed about with the 500% increase for DUD players. Then there is the die hard HD DUD fans that probably picked up more then half the players sold.

Thats why I put that in my HD DVD arguments as im sure HD DVD fanboys did make up a lot of sales. However, I'm sure there were a lot of people who said, the movie titles look similar, its 200 dollars chepaer, im going HD DVD and if i lose, Im out less versus if blu-ray losses. The fact is, is that SOME customers chose HD DVD over blu-ray this week who wern't fanboys of either and that should not be happening enough to lower blu's numbers that significant.


I think very few people chose HD DVD over Blu-Ray. I think this particular week, more people chose the PS3 over stand alones. As for the Super Bowl approaching... perhaps there were more free bundles the week before or perhaps the Super Bowl shoppers do their shopping early... who knows?

The fact is that a statistically significant more people chose HD DVD over blu-ray this week versus last week. Even though its less, if blu wants to continue to grow, this can't happen.

Blu-Ray players being given with HDTV's is NOTHING like HD DUD players being sold as upconverters: The person that purchases DUD knows that he won't be able to watch High Def movies because they are mostly released on Blu-Ray.

sorry, i was refering to the effect of people getting an HD player, but not using it for HDM. That was my point.

oops posted it all in the quotes.

[Bluray_ne1]

Let's also not forget that after the supply of stock-on-hand HD-DVD players is depleated, Blu's #'s will start to rise substantially because they won't have nearly as much competition. I think the rise in HD-DVD's numbers are only due to the current fire sale.

We've already seen the news coming from Woolworths and the quiet liquidation of HD-DVD players at Circuit City. There was also a report that WalMart was clearancing the "Venture" players. I don't think most retailers will re-stock their supply of HD-DVD players based on a surge in sales of the players they can't normally sell without practically giving them away. Once they're gone, hopefully, they'll stay gone.

I'm no economics major, maybe I'm naive, but I think this is to be expected in the short term.

[LordGamer]

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

However contemplate on this. Last week when NPD said that their data did not show a downhill trend for HD-DVD and that the increase in BD players were factored by it being given away with HDTV sales. Regardless of how that is spun, consumers were spending A LOT more money on buying HDTVs than on a HD-DVD player. Even when the BD player is given away, retailers are HAPPY that they moved that many HDTVs because it means more profit margins for them from the sale of the HDTVs. Consumers feel happy they got something out of "nothing", retailers are happy to be selling. ON THE FLIP SIDE, HD DVD players alone do not generate that much margin. Combined with low unit sales, it makes retailers wonder why they are wasting shelf and warehouse space for these HD DVD players.

Excellent post, as well as the rest.

As for the Walmart thing, really, it's one of the many things delusional HD DVD fanboys say to hold on to a false hope. What, is Walmart shelling out 10,000 HD DVD players daily...no, . It's an assumption that Walmart sells more HD DVD products. When people assume too much, reality is a harsh wake up call.

Originally Posted by Bluray_ne1

Let's also not forget that after the supply of stock-on-hand HD-DVD players is depleated, Blu's #'s will start to rise substantially because they won't have nearly as much competition. I think the rise in HD-DVD's numbers are only due to the current fire sale.

We've already seen the news coming from Woolworths and the quiet liquidation of HD-DVD players at Circuit City. There was also a report that WalMart was clearancing the "Venture" players. I don't think most retailers will re-stock their supply of HD-DVD players based on a surge in sales of the players they can't normally sell without practically giving them away. Once they're gone, hopefully, they'll stay gone.

I'm no economics major, maybe I'm naive, but I think this is to be expected in the short term.

Also, true.

[york weir]

If I'm not mistaken amazon isn't measured either. We don't know how many Amazon sells but the Toshiba players are always leading there. I doubt the numbers are near 50/50 but they are probably closer than what NPD is showing.

[DealsR4theDevil]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

2. A lot of these blu-ray players are getting given away with HDTVs. There is no guarentee when something is given away that it is going to be used. Giving away a blu-ray player with a HDTV did not allow the consumer to choose blu-ray, it forced it on him, meaning while we get a tally in the blu column for the week, it might be a false tally, meaning blu-ray numbers are higher than they should be.

The TVs that gave away the Blu-ray players are pretty much all sold out. My friend just bought a Sharp Aquos to get the Blu-ray player yesterday and they were sold out yesterday. We paid but because it is sold out everywhere, we have to wait for it to come in stock (we secured our free Blu-ray player though). This sale counts for this week because we were charged right then and there.

The ppl that want the Blu-ray player will buy it and wait for it to come in stock. The peole that dont want the player might just opt for a diff TV.