CES Final Thoughts From Digital Bits

[hyperdine]

Nice summary from thedigitalbits.com today. It's so good I almost posted the entire thing

"Looking at the HD-DVD side of things, I'm a bit puzzled. Over the years, I've spoken to many people who work in the consumer electronics sector, who have said that the main reason the hardware manufacturers were eager for a new high-def format to take off, was that the profit margins had dropped out of the DVD player business about 5 or 6 years in. Why did this happen? Because $50 and $100 players suddenly flooded the market from Chinese manufacturers. If you're a hard-working parent in Cincinatti, and your kids want a DVD player for their room, are you going to buy them a $50 Lite-on from WalMart, or a $300 Sony? Probably the $50 player, right? So how can getting those same manufactures involved in making cheaper HD-DVD players in the format's first year help the format long-term? In the short term, I can absolutely see this as beneficial because it could encourage more people to buy HD-DVD players... but in the long term, doesn't it hurt the major hardware manufacturers' bottom lines? The business wisdom of this just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

On the Blu-ray side... well, it's pretty hard not to be impressed by the selection of titles that are on the way - titles that are exclusive to the format. The Rock, Crimson Tide, Cars, both Pirates films, Casino Royale, Ronin, A Few Good Men, Rocky Balboa, Jerry Maguire, Dirty Dancing, Ice Age, Master & Commander, Man on Fire, Edward Scissorhands, Predator, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, Independence Day, I, Robot, Cast Away, A Night at the Museum, The Usual Suspects, Dances with Wolves, The Silence of the Lambs, Platoon, The Graduate, Battle of Britain, A Bridge Too Far, To Live & Die in L.A., A Fistful of Dollars, Bull Durham... how does HD-DVD compete with that? If Universal had announced E.T., Back to the Future, Jaws, Jurassic Park (and I'll admit that I honestly expected them to announce at least one of those titles this week)... okay, maybe. But they didn't. As we used to say back in the early days of DVD, a home video format is only as good the films you can watch on it. It was true then, and it's true now. It's all about the movies. I love the fact that Bandai Visual is releasing anime on HD-DVD, but anime has a VERY limited appeal to most consumers. Frankly, I think the best thing that happened to HD-DVD this week was New Line announcing that they'll support HD-DVD via Warner's THD disc, potentially bringing Lord of the Rings to both formats. But when you look at that list of Blu-ray exclusive titles... man. What makes this list even more striking are the titles that AREN'T there, but that you know are probably on the way. With The Rock and Crimson Tide coming, can Armageddon be far behind? Sony says they're doing Ghost Rider this year... but does anyone think they won't release the Spider-Man movies on Blu-ray in 2007, what with Spidey 3 arriving in theaters in a few months? What about Lawrence of Arabia, Bridge on the River Kwai, Starship Troopers, Kill Bill, Pulp Fiction? And what about the bigger titles that are probably several years off, but that will almost certainly still be Blu-ray exclusive - titles like Alien, Aliens, Die Hard, True Lies, The Abyss, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, the older Bond films, classic Disney animated titles, the bigger Pixar films, the Star Wars films?"

Some really great points from a reliable and objective source!

[Blubaru]

Nelson says HA HA to HD-DVD!

[Maximus]

No, he was only objective when he supported HD DVD for that brief 2 week period, otherwise he is a BD fanboy .

I think he is a smart man, if he mentions Spiderman, then chances are it will be released considering the industry contacts that he knows. He also brings up a good point about manufacturers bottom lines, with BD only licensed companies are going to be able to produce players, are the Chinese companies going to get a license, unlikely for a while. With HD DVD Toshiba are going to find themselves competing against volume manufacturing, which as the have so abjectly shown they cannot do (DVD is a good example). While Chinese companies may be good for consumer (pricewise) they will not be good for the format at all as they have no QC, well actually they have no quality in general, and that is what BD and HD DVD are all about, quality picture and sound.

[dialog_gvf]

The Chinese are going to pop out the Microsoft/Broadcom reference design. It is IMPOSSIBLE for them to develop something themselves, and all the software, in a few months.

This is becoming MS-DVD, well and truelly.

And every single CE will remember Microsoft's attempted sabotage. And the corporate memory is indefinite.

Gary

[hyperdine]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

No, he was only objective when he supported HD DVD for that brief 2 week period, otherwise he is a BD fanboy .

Well, I've definitely seen him take the Blu-Ray format to task quite a bit for some of the missteps (and rightfully so). I think initially he was leaning pretty heavily towards Blu-Ray at CES 2006, but then after the lackluster launch he had second thoughts. He's definitely said several times that he's been impressed with HD-DVD, etc. Either way, I don't agree with him completely on things though. He was prety impressed with Total HD and I think it's a bad idea. It's nice to see someone give an educated opinion on these matters without all the extreme bias. He definitely knows his stuff and as you mentioned, he's got some really good industry contacts.

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

I think he is a smart man, if he mentions Spiderman, then chances are it will be released considering the industry contacts that he knows. He also brings up a good point about manufacturers bottom lines, with BD only licensed companies are going to be able to produce players, are the Chinese companies going to get a license, unlikely for a while. With HD DVD Toshiba are going to find themselves competing against volume manufacturing, which as the have so abjectly shown they cannot do (DVD is a good example). While Chinese companies may be good for consumer (pricewise) they will not be good for the format at all as they have no QC, well actually they have no quality in general, and that is what BD and HD DVD are all about, quality picture and sound.

Agreed!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by hyperdine

Either way, I don't agree with him completely on things though. He was prety impressed with Total HD and I think it's a bad idea. It's nice to see someone give an educated opinion on these matters without all the extreme bias. He definitely knows his stuff and as you mentioned, he's got some really good industry contacts.

Most BD fans can accept people have different opinions, and still admire them.

Gary

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by hyperdine

Well, I've definitely seen him take the Blu-Ray format to task quite a bit for some of the missteps (and rightfully so). I think initially he was leaning pretty heavily towards Blu-Ray at CES 2006, but then after the lackluster launch he had second thoughts. He's definitely said several times that he's been impressed with HD-DVD, etc. Either way, I don't agree with him completely on things though. He was prety impressed with Total HD and I think it's a bad idea. It's nice to see someone give an educated opinion on these matters without all the extreme bias. He definitely knows his stuff and as you mentioned, he's got some really good industry contacts.

I definitely think he made the right decision in taking the BDA to task over their awful launch titles and mistakes with the Samsung player, if he didn't we may not be at the stage we are now. While that may be making too much of his opinion, I think that the negative buzz for BD that his change in opinion caused definitely made the BDA rethink their whole approach.

I think that he was impressed by the technical aspect of TotalHD, a lot of people, including me (than is the engineer/chemist in me speaking), are. Whether or not he thinks it is good for the consumers, he did not say.

I like his approach, it is very logical (again engineer) and now that he has said he supports BD again, watch how AVS members start badmouthing him again.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Most BD fans can accept people have different opinions, and still admire them.

Gary

QFT, I don't like most of what Amir has said, but I still respect his (team's) contribution to the landscape of high definition, without VC1, AVC would still be in its infancy, but instead it is maturing at a rate that no one would have predicted, and MPEG2 has really stepped up.

Even someone like Steve Jobs, I don't particularly agree with the approach taken for the iPhone, but I do admire that he has the guts to take on some of the real big-boys in the phone world, like Sony Ericsson whose W950i is actually a better phone when it comes to features, and it is also cheaper. But he isn't shying away from the challenge. I think it might be just me, but I really wanted the Widescreen iPod, mmm 80GB WidePod.

[mbslrm]

'Twas a nice read.

[ProvenFlipper]

It's going to be interesting over the next few months to watch how the positive buzz that HD-DVD enjoyed for much of 2007 continues to swing towards Blu-ray. All of these industry people who trash talked BD are now coming to their senses. Like others have said the criticism was needed to wake up the BDA, but once they got thier act together everything seemed pretty good.

What I find interesting is, pretty much everything that HD-DVD is getting BD is going to get with the exception of a few Weinstein titles, and whatever Universal has announced. I don't feel that Weinstein is far behind from releasing on BD, as a small company such as themselves can't continue to ignore all of the positive sales on the BD side and the amount of players there are. The same holds for Universal, except they can probably, (or may be contratually held to), hold out for a little bit longer as they are a bigger company, but eventually they too will realized the HD-DVD market is quickly becoming saturated and the BD market is on a steep increase.

I see the same customers in the HD-DVD section at work week after week, and see many different people in the BD section. I've even seen some of the usual HD-DVD customers purchasing BDs now.

As I was talking with one of my co-workers yesterday who is an installer for us, I mentioned the marketing departments of the two formats and how BD is killing HD-DVD in that respect. He told me about the tons of customers who buy HD-DVDs expecting them to play in their upconvert DVD players that advertise "HD" on the box. When they ask him why they don't work, he tells them that they need an HD-DVD player, and the customers always say "Oh that blu-ray thing". Of course he corrects them and sends them to me for a BD player, but that goes to show you how the marketing is working for the BDA. Many people also come in and see the HD-DVD and equate the DVD portion to something they already have. One customer told me that he thought HD-DVDs were just pre upconverted so people wouldn't have to buy upconvert players.

The Total HD disc is only going to help BD if they spec both sides the same. Why is this might you ask? Well anyone who has used a HD-DVD player can tell you about the audio dropouts and skipping and freezing. If they can get the same content on BD and not have to deal with those issues, why would they get an HD-DVD player? I think the THD disc was designed by Warner to help speed up the war. The studios are seeing the trends, especially Warner, whose Supermand Returns disc is smashing HD-DVD sales at all of the major online retailersm and I'm sure the same holds true in the B&M retailers. Whether the HD-DVD fanboys want to admit it or not, BD is on the rise. Especially if Universal starts to release on THD discs, like many speculate, the decision will be easy for the customer.

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by ProvenFlipper

One customer told me that he thought HD-DVDs were just pre upconverted so people wouldn't have to buy upconvert players.

That would be killer FUD if we spread fud.