The Kentucky Derby

[Scripture]

Big day today horse racing fans! Weeeeeeeeeeeee ...

Any horse racing fans out there?

This is one of my favorite times of the year, as the first leg of the Triple Crown kicks off - The Kentucky Derby! A fun fact, The Kentucky Derby is the oldest continually held sports event in the United States (1875). That's pretty cool to me. At any rate, I was just wondering who everyone is picking and how much they will lay down. I'm a gambler, so horse racing lends itself well to that habit. I've been studying all week, and can't wait for Saturday to roll around.

My thoughts:

Big Brown looks like a monster on paper. He's undefeated in his last three starts, and has won going away by a combined 29 lengths. He also has one of the highest beyer speed figures (something that I'm high on) at 106. In the last sixteen years, only two Kentucky Derby winners failed to post a triple-digit beyer speed number in any of their final three starts: Sea Hero in ‘93 and Giacomo in ‘05. Both recorded the lowest two winning figures during that time span. This year’s speed figures in preps among the expected 20 Kentucky Derby starters is lower than usual. The bad about Big Brown, is the fact that he's trying to win the Derby in just his fourth career race, something that was last done in 1915. Curlin has gone on to become a super horse, but he was a race short on seasoning when he tried the same thing last year and finished third. Also, he's in the 20th post position (Only one horse in the history has won from that position - Clyde Van Dusen in 1929). While some detractors will hold that against him, I'm with his trainer Dutrow in the belief that he'll get a clean trip this way. He needs to break good though, in order to stay out of the initial maelstrom.

I'm going with a $150 on the nose with Big Brown. Hopefully, I can still nab him with 3-1 odds, but I see that dropping on Saturday to 2-1 or possibly even money.

Some other horses that I like for exotics:

Pyro
Recapturetheglory
Z Fortune
Colonel John

I'm looking at a $50 exacta box with Big Brown and Colonel John. Then a $20 trifecta box of: Big Brown, Colonel John, and Z Fortune. Never forget to box them together!

Two facts to make a note of:

- In the last 16 years, every winner except Sea Hero in 1993 and Giacomo in 2005 ran at least a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in a route prior to the race. Those who qualify with a 102 figure this year are: Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Pyro, Recapturetheglory and Z Fortune

- Seven of the last nine Triple Crown races have been won by a trainer who had never previously won a Triple Crown race. (Rick Dutrow, Jr. qualifies this year under that criteria)

Good luck to everyone out there, and may the horse be with you!