News Corp (Fox) president: player SCARCITY holding back Blu-ray adoption

[Grubert]

From Home Media Magazine

News Corp. president and COO Peter Chernin said a dearth of Blu-ray players at retail continues to hamper wider consumer adoption of the next-generation format.

News Corp. is parent to 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, among other studio assets.

In an analysts call, Chernin said many retailers carry just one or two Blu-ray players, which he said has necessitated a manufacturing push for third-generation players.

He expects the new players to reach the market by the summer and contribute to an upswing of both player and movie sales through the fourth quarter.

The COO said News Corp. remains bullish on Blu-ray due to the format’s higher margins compared to standard DVD. He said if margins remain constant and players become abundant, year-end industry Blu-ray revenue could reach $1 billion.

“We think these [Blu-ray] discs are more valuable [than standard DVD],” Chernin said.

[...]

[jw]

at 30.00 a disc retail including catalog,no wonder.

They are pulling over 20.00 wholesale per disc, way more than any dvd. The problem is they sell so it will continue. Looks like Universal and Paramount are gonna follow their pricing example

[Leopold BUTTERS]

that's not the only problem. when you have companies like pioneer releasing 800 dollar BD players that don't even decode DTS MA and are only 1.1 there is a good reason for people not wanting to get BD players yet.

[WickyWoo]

You're comparing the Porche models to the Corollas

BD-50 and Pioneer's stuff are Porches

The Sharp, Mits, Phillips, Samsung etc are Corollas. The Pioneer decks will decode DTS MA with a future firmware update

It's true that there is a shortage of decks at retail. They come in, and they go out. There are retailers where they sit, but places they sell, they sell

[Kris Deering]

You're comparing the Porche models to the Corollas

Unfortunately that sentence is only true when you look at price point and cosmetics. It is definitely not the case when you talk about features and A/V performance, which is troubling.

[Bobby Henderson]

My thoughts exactly.

Those Panasonic and Pioneer BD players have Chevy quality with Porsche pricing.

[saprano]

These are the same steps DVD took before it reached mass market price, i dont know why people dont see or get that.

[SquidPuppet]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

You're comparing the Porche models to the Corollas

BD-50 and Pioneer's stuff are Porches

The Sharp, Mits, Phillips, Samsung etc are Corollas. The Pioneer decks will decode DTS MA with a future firmware update

It's true that there is a shortage of decks at retail. They come in, and they go out. There are retailers where they sit, but places they sell, they sell

When purchasing a "Porsche", one rightfully expects the "engine" to be fully and properly operational when taking delivery. When one pays top dollar for a "premium" device, he/she should not have to perform upgrades at a later (and undisclosed dtae) just to bring it up to claimed performance specs.

[cajun1975]

Maybe if disk prices came down to what DVD's retail for or just sightly higher more people would consider going Blu.

[Jim L]

Originally Posted by SquidPuppet

When purchasing a "Porsche", one rightfully expects the "engine" to be fully and properly operational when taking delivery. When one pays top dollar for a "premium" device, he/she should not have to perform upgrades at a later (and undisclosed dtae) just to bring it up to claimed performance specs.

I admit that the it's frustrating that Blu-ray players will go through these updates (DVD players rarely, if ever did).

But . . .

• The BD spec was finalized very late in the game
• BD is more complex because it incorporates HD video with 3 CODECs
• BD has to support brand new audio CODECs
• BD-J adds another layer of complexity that requires cross-compatibility with ALL titles for ALL players
• BD-Live adds more hardware and software complexity that extends all of the above difficulties

As far as the quality level of Panasonic and Pioneer -- I wouldn't call them Porsche. But they are definitely in a higher bracket than Toshiba, Samsung, LG, etc.

[Elandyll]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

You're comparing the Porche models to the Corollas

BD-50 and Pioneer's stuff are Porches

The Sharp, Mits, Phillips, Samsung etc are Corollas. The Pioneer decks will decode DTS MA with a future firmware update

It's true that there is a shortage of decks at retail. They come in, and they go out. There are retailers where they sit, but places they sell, they sell

Interesting comparison.
Then I declare that the PS3 is a

[owa]

Originally Posted by Grubert

From Home Media Magazine

Nice, thanks for the article.

There definitely isn't a lot of choice in that regard. Locally, it seems the only one everyone has plenty of is the combo player that sells for like $700. The retailers also need to do a better job of making them available or easy to find, even in regards to the PS3 (one of the more popular blu-ray players at the moment). For example, for a while now, BB has been showing the PS3 being in stock if I check the website, but at the store I don't see them. They have a shelf for holding ticket-like items that you take to the front but that has been empty for a while now. While people shopping for one explicitly, hopefully would ask for it, not having items readily available kills any sort of impulse purchase. Probably not a huge percentage of people that shop that way but I often do and I'm sure there are others.

Anyway, the blu-ray players and movies may not be the bread-and-butter for them yet but imo, they need to make the items (players and movies) more readily available to help the sales. A different thread touched on Walmart and basically, their shelves are mostly empty. Kind of hard to sell what you don't have and in some regards, it seems to be getting worse rather than better. Not sure if that is because of selling more than they thought or retail just not paying enough attention to it at the moment to keep things in stock.

[Kris Deering]

Originally Posted by cajun1975

Maybe if disk prices came down to what DVD's retail for or just sightly higher more people would consider going Blu.

DVD demanded a premium price during its initial run too, so that is no surprise.

But again, for a lot of people the difference in quality doesn't justify the price. With most catalog DVD's costing $10 or less it is hard to justify spending 2-3x's the price for what may or may not be much of an upgrade depending on the playback system.

DVD brought better picture, better sound, an optical disc format, and better availability since VHS was tied to a rental market. Again, it is a completely different playing field this time around. You also have to remember that DVD has been on the market for over a decade now, and it took a LONG time to get to the price point we're seeing from it. I personally think Blu-ray pricing is on the cheap side considering the quality. People are just spoiled by where DVD is now and expect this to be the same right out the gate.

[Bobby Henderson]

Originally Posted by saprano

These are the same steps DVD took before it reached mass market price, i dont know why people dont see or get that.

DVD players were pretty expensive in mid 1997 and 1998. Entry level players were going for $700 or more. A few may have been slightly less expensive, but I can't remember seeing any under $600.

By Spring, 1999 more affordable, full featured models were arriving on store shelves. In the $400 to $500 price range a number of companies were selling players with built in DD decoding and 5.1 analog outputs, DTS output, dual layer capability, etc. Basic players with DTS output were selling for a little over $300. That was at the 2 year mark after the introduction of DVD.

We getting past the 2 year mark on the introduction of Blu-ray. A little too much time has passed for manufacturers to keep charging pretty high prices. Those high prices are going to keep Blu-ray stuck as a high end niche market item. The market needs at least a couple or so Blu-ray player models below the $300 price level right now. By this fall/holiday season I think the magic number to get lots of people to buy is going to be $249.99 or under.

That doesn't mean all Blu-ray players need to be priced cheap. However, there has to be at least a few affordable stand alone models that cost less than a 40GB PS3.

[IMind]

Considering I paid $499 for a REFURBISHED Toshiba DVD player in 1998 and I paid $499 for a new Panasonic BD30 in 2008...

The whole overpriced thing is a myth perpetrated by HDDVD fans and Toshiba's dumping of HDDVD players. This is compounded by the fact that consumer electronics as a whole have fallen in price dramatically especially when you factor in inflation and the weak dollar.

[Kris Deering]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

DVD players were pretty expensive in mid 1997 and 1998. Entry level players were going for $700 or more. A few may have been slightly less expensive, but I can't remember seeing any under $600.

By Spring, 1999 more affordable, full featured models were arriving on store shelves. In the $400 to $500 price range a number of companies were selling players with built in DD decoding and 5.1 analog outputs, DTS output, dual layer capability, etc. Basic players with DTS output were selling for a little over $300. That was at the 2 year mark after the introduction of DVD.

We getting past the 2 year mark on the introduction of Blu-ray. A little too much time has passed for manufacturers to keep charging pretty high prices. Those high prices are going to keep Blu-ray stuck as a high end niche market item. The market needs at least a couple or so Blu-ray player models below the $300 price level right now. By this fall/holiday season I think the magic number to get lots of people to buy is going to be $249.99 or under.

That doesn't mean all Blu-ray players need to be priced cheap. However, there has to be at least a few affordable stand alone models that cost less than a 40GB PS3.

DVD was structured different though. DTS output was already around by 1999 and dual layer support was there from day one. In 1999 Toshiba put out the first progressive scan DVD players though, and they started around $800. You then had the progressive players costing a premium and standard players coming down in price.

Again, BD players for what they bring to the table right now are priced reasonably considering time in the market. Consumers may still find them expensive in terms of mass market adoption, but only because they are used to dirt cheap DVD players from China.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Kris Deering

Again, BD players for what they bring to the table right now are priced reasonably considering time in the market. Consumers may still find them expensive in terms of mass market adoption, but only because they are used to dirt cheap DVD players from China.

And a certain big CE selling HD disc players for under $100 at one point.

The low-end zone that had been left open by the big boys has been slower to fill than I expected. But, we are now starting to see the Funai players arrive.

Sub $300 now, and probably deals around $200 for Q4. If that doesn't result in a nice pop then it will be a major uphill battle in 2009.

Gary

[SquidPuppet]

Originally Posted by Kris Deering

DVD was structured different though. DTS output was already around by 1999 and dual layer support was there from day one. In 1999 Toshiba put out the first progressive scan DVD players though, and they started around $800. You then had the progressive players costing a premium and standard players coming down in price.

Again, BD players for what they bring to the table right now are priced reasonably considering time in the market. Consumers may still find them expensive in terms of mass market adoption, but only because they are used to dirt cheap DVD players from China.

Look!, if you want to keep spewing facts, and trying to cloud the issue with facts, fine. But I want a profile 4 BD player for $79.00 by Christmas.

(profile 4 = does dishes & laundry & washes my car)

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by Kris Deering

DVD demanded a premium price during its initial run too, so that is no surprise.

But again, for a lot of people the difference in quality doesn't justify the price. With most catalog DVD's costing $10 or less it is hard to justify spending 2-3x's the price for what may or may not be much of an upgrade depending on the playback system.

DVD brought better picture, better sound, an optical disc format, and better availability since VHS was tied to a rental market. Again, it is a completely different playing field this time around. You also have to remember that DVD has been on the market for over a decade now, and it took a LONG time to get to the price point we're seeing from it. I personally think Blu-ray pricing is on the cheap side considering the quality. People are just spoiled by where DVD is now and expect this to be the same right out the gate.

I'd like to see the studios adopt the WB/Disney MSRP plans myself, but other than that, I agree 100%!

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

DVD players were pretty expensive in mid 1997 and 1998. Entry level players were going for $700 or more. A few may have been slightly less expensive, but I can't remember seeing any under $600.

I bought my first DVD player in September of 1998 (Panasonic A-110) for $349which came with a free movie. It wasn't anything special (no internal decoding, no component outputs, no DTS output), but it was a solid player given the fact that I didn't have component inputs at the time, I was planning on buying a receiver, so I didn't need internal decoding and there really wasn't any DTS titles at the time. A few years later I upgraded to a Progressive Scan DVD player (Sony) and paid $399 for it. Considering that several players were had last Christmas for less than $300, I'd say Blu-ray is doing pretty good. By this Christmas, I think we should be in a LOT better position.

Originally Posted by Kris Deering

DVD was structured different though. DTS output was already around by 1999 and dual layer support was there from day one. In 1999 Toshiba put out the first progressive scan DVD players though, and they started around $800. You then had the progressive players costing a premium and standard players coming down in price.

Again, BD players for what they bring to the table right now are priced reasonably considering time in the market. Consumers may still find them expensive in terms of mass market adoption, but only because they are used to dirt cheap DVD players from China.

You're on a roll Kris!!

~Alan

[owa]

Why don't VCRs ever get mentioned in these type discussions (I'm seriously asking by the way)? Didn't the same thing happen there? Going from 2-head stereo VCRs to 4-head hi-fi VCRs, for example. I seem to remember paying in the $600+ range for them (4-head hi-fi VCRs that is). Tapes even transitioned from stereo/ultra-stereo to hi-fi as well. Since it's usually not brought up, I'm just curious if there is something about the situation that makes them not relevant to this sort of discussion or is it a matter of not needing to go back that far or something else (maybe incorrectly remembering how much I paid for it)?