At what point will Blu-ray Disc be considered a mass-market success?

[4K display]

....does it need to be?

We've all heard the marketing hype and quotes from overzealous executives about the growth and development of BD.
What I would like to know is the realistic expectations of the top studio/industry people as to when they, as a whole, will feel that BD has "made it" and become worth all the effort?

As much as everyone involved would like to see it happen, I don't think BD will ever share the same overall success as dvd experienced (grand slams only come along once in a while). But how far can we go?
We can even leave dvd/competing technologies out of the equation, and look at BD on its own.
Do we need ~ 50 million players/homes reached, 10 billion$/year in revenue, 100 pc. recordable cake packs, a BD drive in every PC shipped, before we are "there"?

How do we ensure that BD remains high quality as it becomes more affordable AND profitable? Would we really want BD to be as commonplace as dvd?

[Anthony P]

Would we really want BD to be as commonplace as dvd?

yes

[ShelbyGT500]

I for one would like it to be as commonplace as DVD, as long as it does not decrease the quality. My fear is that once they get "easy" to make we will see very pour quality BD movies coming out. IF that happens then whats the point of having high-def.

I would much rather have high quality over high quantity.

[clyon]

30%-40% global market share, we don't need 100%. I still know people that use something called VHS

At some point maybe in 2-3 years BD players will be around $100-150 & since most "good" dvd players are in that range. Eletronic manufacturers would then stop production of dvd players in the $80 up range, forcing people to have to spend a little more money.

Since dvd player last about 5 years & probably half that on those super cheap'o no name brands, people will have mostly have no choice., when prices drop too a point.

For the PC with BD, how many computers do you see for sale that JUST have a CD-RW drive? why because DVD's are now used as an medium for some softwares, beside movies. In a "few years" when MS releases there umptenth O/S edition it will be soooo big a DVD will not hold it all.
Gaming is what will push BD players on PC faster since some of those games take up so much room.

[Blu Titan]

The first step will be a million unit BD seller! Did anyoen say TDK?

[4K display]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

The first step will be a million unit BD seller! Did anyoen say TDK?

If TDK moves a million units this Fall, could a big catalogue title do the same?

[4K display]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

yes

Do you think it really will be as common as or close enough?

[4K display]

Originally Posted by ShelbyGT500

I for one would like it to be as commonplace as DVD, as long as it does not decrease the quality. My fear is that once they get "easy" to make we will see very pour quality BD movies coming out. IF that happens then whats the point of having high-def.

I would much rather have high quality over high quantity.

Agreed

I haven't been paying any attention whatsoever to dvd reviews/quality.
Are todays dvd's much better than the early ones, or are they over-processed? It's hard to tell as they all look pretty crappy on today's TV's especially next to BD.

[Entertainment72]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

The first step will be a million unit BD seller! Did anyoen say TDK?

I finally saw the movie, a very easy 5 out of 5. Can you imagine if they can bring TDK out before christmas pre-packaged with a discounted PS3 or Sony 350

BLACK FRIDAY:
PS3 80GB $299 TDK (special dark knight limited edition fire emblem blah blah blah lol)
Sony S350 $299 TDK

There is your million unit BD player and one million unit BD movie! 2% additional share in one day!

[fighthefutureofhd]

Originally Posted by ShelbyGT500

I for one would like it to be as commonplace as DVD, as long as it does not decrease the quality. My fear is that once they get "easy" to make we will see very pour quality BD movies coming out. IF that happens then whats the point of having high-def.

I would much rather have high quality over high quantity.

agree completely. and i think the average consumer will drive blu-ray this way if it does go mainstream. the average consumer just doesn't really care about high quality picture and sound. we well could end up with crappy bd releases at a cheap price to appease the average consumer.

[Anthony P]

Do you think it really will be as common as or close enough?

depends what you mean. I think eventually studios won't produce DVDs and everything will be on BD (3 or more years away) and when you go in the store to get a new movie the choice will be BD, or if you look at market share it would be more or less all BD, the way DVD was.

Now once we get past that point it gets more complicated. For example will BD sales match DVD sales at their peak? that I don't know. It would depend if studios can get pirating under control or not.

[Anthony P]

agree completely. and i think the average consumer will drive blu-ray this way if it does go mainstream. the average consumer just doesn't really care about high quality picture and sound. we well could end up with crappy bd releases at a cheap price to appease the average consumer.

I doubt it. It misses the reality, for example even though the average consumer had a small 4:3 TV and hated black bars, DVD did not go full screen but went wide screen. If we assume your reasoning is right then the opposite would have happened.

driving is done by the stronger forces, nuts like us are loud, and we will ***** and we will make decisions based on our likes and dislikes on the other hand a J6P won't say and won't care and in the end he buys 10 movies in his life time and it is based on the title (most likely a kids film) and not on any other factor (yes if it is too expensive he might wait a bit).

The other issue with your reasoning is that in reality asking for lossless or better PQ does not really add to the cost. Yes an old film that needs a lot of restoration can be done cheaply or expensively and that would affect PQ, but then again who is most likely to rebuy for the 10th time the same movie? and why? on a new release it should not be more expensive to put the bit meter higher, actually it could even be cheaper (less time tweaking by the tech)

[deadhatetheliving]

Originally Posted by Entertainment72

BLACK FRIDAY:
PS3 80GB $299 TDK (special dark knight limited edition fire emblem blah blah blah lol)
Sony S350 $299 TDK

There is your million unit BD player and one million unit BD movie! 2% additional share in one day!

I hope I'm off work at Target if that happends. "Excuse me. Do you have anymore of the new Playstations with that new Batman movie?" eeee

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Entertainment72

I finally saw the movie, a very easy 5 out of 5. Can you imagine if they can bring TDK out before christmas pre-packaged with a discounted PS3 or Sony 350

BLACK FRIDAY:
PS3 80GB $299 TDK (special dark knight limited edition fire emblem blah blah blah lol)
Sony S350 $299 TDK

There is your million unit BD player and one million unit BD movie! 2% additional share in one day!

Sounds nice but I don't think it would happen: Sony needs a hit of their own to bundle in.

[Clark Kent]

It will be mass market when a popular title on Blu-ray outsells the dvd version. It will happen and faster than people think. Probably the first quarter of 2010 where you'll have two more holiday seasons of player sales.

[Entertainment72]

Originally Posted by blu2

Sounds nice but I don't think it would happen: Sony needs a hit of their own to bundle in.

Stranger things have happened, never say never.. .

[fighthefutureofhd]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I doubt it. It misses the reality, for example even though the average consumer had a small 4:3 TV and hated black bars, DVD did not go full screen but went wide screen. If we assume your reasoning is right then the opposite would have happened.

driving is done by the stronger forces, nuts like us are loud, and we will ***** and we will make decisions based on our likes and dislikes on the other hand a J6P won't say and won't care and in the end he buys 10 movies in his life time and it is based on the title (most likely a kids film) and not on any other factor (yes if it is too expensive he might wait a bit).

The other issue with your reasoning is that in reality asking for lossless or better PQ does not really add to the cost. Yes an old film that needs a lot of restoration can be done cheaply or expensively and that would affect PQ, but then again who is most likely to rebuy for the 10th time the same movie? and why? on a new release it should not be more expensive to put the bit meter higher, actually it could even be cheaper (less time tweaking by the tech)

dvd didn't go widescreen at all. what happened was that the studios offered a full screen version and widescreen version. and sometimes they offered a bells and whistles version. they won't do that with blu-ray, as it costs more to produce blu-ray. if the studios can get away with cheap they'll do so. they already are in some cases.

[arush5268d]

Blu-ray will be a mass-market success when Chuck Norris decides to let it.

[aviman33]

When BB makes the financial decision to stop stocking DVD's, you will know that BD has reached mass market success.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by aviman33

When BB makes the financial decision to stop stocking DVD's, you will know that BD has reached mass market success.

If/when that happens, it would be long after BD has gone mass market.