Has Itunes really "killed" CDs?

[Firestreak]

When people talk about how digital downloads are going to pick up so much speed that they're going to bulldoze Blu-ray, I wonder why, when you consider that CDs are still thriving. CDs are obviously not dead, so it's pretty obvious that physical media for movies won't be dead either.

In fact, Blu-ray is around 8% of movie sales, while digital downloads is what... 10% of music sales? While they're not directly competing, it's a fair point that Blu-ray is after 2 years looking to take more of a chunk of movie sales than DDs are going to have of music... after what, 5 or 6 years since itunes(which is 88% of digital downloads) launch?

Consider that downloading music makes so much more sense than downloading movies...

Bandwidth issues.
Portability issues.
Practicality issues.
DRM issues.
Storage space issues.
And generally people being a lot less picky about the compression of music compared to movies.

You have to wonder, even in the wildest blu-ray doomsayers imaginations, how physical media would actually die out anytime in the next 20 years.

If it takes digital downloads 5 years to get 10% of movies, 90% is still in discs. The assumption that a majority of people are going to jump into the digital download isn't really based on anything other than a guess. Even if 10 years from now, more than half of those sales were digital, 40% on disc is still enough to keep discs a very healthy market. Hell, 20 years from now, if it was 10% still on disc sales, which is... yet again, mostly just an insane wetdream for Bill Gates, that 10% is still going to be keeping discs printed.

If nothing else, digital downloads will entrench blu-ray even deeper, by crowded the market, making it harder for a new disc based format to get any foothold.