Why last week's fire sale was a mistake... - Blu-ray Forum

stockstar1138 · 11-07-2007, 02:00 PM

Remember back last spring/summer when tosh offered the a2 for the dirt cheap price of $299 and Toshiba claimed they increased sales mucho at many stores. what happened the next week, sales went dead. people expected to be able to get players cheap and were simply not going to pay an extra $100 for an a2. guess what, anybody who wanted an a2 got one last week, it was the prime time to buy and now anything over 100 bucks for an hd dvd player seems expensive. just as ppl expected the cheaper price back then after a sale, they expect it now. so until the price goes back down to 98 bones. expect their to virtually no sales of players, especially because ppl know black friday is coming up. so what they've got 500k players on the market right now. they will be lucky to get 20k more until black fri. and then they will sell 50k over black friday (due to the fact that ppl who had been eyeing hd players, bought one last week), further xmas shopping sells another 100k, ps3 sold about 130k units last week fyi.

CptGreedle · 11-07-2007, 02:05 PM

There is a bigger problem here than you realize...
Right now the only major manufacturer of HD-DVD players is... Toshiba.
Blu-ray has many many many manufacturers, and that keeps a healthy competition and builds a strong foundation for the format.
Now that Toshiba has lowered the price of the HD-DVD player to $100, no one in their right mind would join them to build HD-DVD players in the future. Toshiba already has the market cornered and they themselves are loosing money off of this, there is no way they are going to make anything from a product originally priced at $499 and sold at $99! No one will join them now.
They have just dug themselves in a giant hole and all they can do now is keep digging.

mystiksuicide · 11-07-2007, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

There is a bigger problem here than you realize...
Right now the only major manufacturer of HD-DVD players is... Toshiba.
Blu-ray has many many many manufacturers, and that keeps a healthy competition and builds a strong foundation for the format.
Now that Toshiba has lowered the price of the HD-DVD player to $100, no one in their right mind would join them to build HD-DVD players in the future. Toshiba already has the market cornered and they themselves are loosing money off of this, there is no way they are going to make anything from a product originally priced at $499 and sold at $99! No one will join them now.
They have just bug themselves in a giant hole and all they can do now is keep digging.

Damn I never even thought of that, yes I can just see a Pioneer Elite, Panasonic or any other brand selling hd duds for $98. It's simply not going to happen

Blu-Ray Buckeye · 11-07-2007, 02:12 PM

That's a fair point. personally I think at least one of the BD players makers needs to just crank out a cheap-ass 1080i player and be done with it. However I don't panic about it the way so many on here do... it's as if their life is consumed with worry about A2 firesales and Transformers.

I would also add that people have to factor in how many of the 90k units were sold to existing HD-DVD owners.... my guess is more than half. Think about it this way: how many PS3 or blu-ray owners would consider getting another BD player if it were below $200? How about adding a 2nd PS3 so you wouldn't have to move it between rooms if it were say $249? That's right, you'd be first in line. Trust me, most of these were sold to existing HD-DVders.

Of those sold to new, "unique" HD-DVD users, how many bought it not understanding the need to buy HD-DVDs at all and only plan to use them to make their existing DVDs look better? Don't say none, because you know it's some.

Of the remaining folks who are truly unique, new buyers and who do understand HD-DVD disc and such... how many bought it because it was very cheap and simply won't become big spenders all of a sudden. You always have a major problem when you try to win on being cheap---------> but your actual media are very expensive. Think about it in real terms and in regard to real economics of the Walmart customer. You have a cheap console but media twice as high as standard DVDs. What is PS3 or 360 suddenly started selling at $199 but they made their games $100+. Would you really boost s/w sales?

stockstar1138 · 11-07-2007, 02:13 PM

toshiba at one point is going to have to look at this and say, we can't keep doing this. i mean seriously components do come down, but if it was costing them $499 to make a a2, its gotta be costing them at least $250 bucks for the a3, and thats bare min. considering that by xmas next year blu-ray players will be down in the 199 range for sure. hd dvd will have to be a $49 bucks. sony has made over a hundred million ps2s and it still costs them around 50 bucks to make one and they have their manufacturing skills down pat. thus, toshiba had to massively subsidize hardware in the beginning, will never, ever make profit off hardware in the future and has sold players so cheap, that the hd media is completely out of their budget, so they are just going to watch dvds.

DealsR4theDevil · 11-07-2007, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

There is a bigger problem here than you realize...
Right now the only major manufacturer of HD-DVD players is... Toshiba.
Blu-ray has many many many manufacturers, and that keeps a healthy competition and builds a strong foundation for the format.
Now that Toshiba has lowered the price of the HD-DVD player to $100, no one in their right mind would join them to build HD-DVD players in the future. Toshiba already has the market cornered and they themselves are loosing money off of this, there is no way they are going to make anything from a product originally priced at $499 and sold at $99! No one will join them now.
They have just bug themselves in a giant hole and all they can do now is keep digging.

They were in a position where they had to do something soon or die. This may be a desperate action on Toshiba's part, but that does not mean that it wont work. We will see how this turns out, lets hope for the best.

Coltboy · 11-07-2007, 02:39 PM

My Wally World had about 30 HD players and 2 Blu-ray players and now they are down to 1 BD player and 2 HD players. someone is buying them

i really hope they just moved them to the back in the stock room but i dunno

Steelmaker · 11-07-2007, 02:43 PM

I see this as a complete act of desparation from Toshiba and a last ditch effort to gain support from the movie studios. They will not succeed and by this time next year, this war will be over.

kurtlingle · 11-07-2007, 02:47 PM

My gut feel is that we will see some BD players drop to 299 for X-mas time. Just a guess but we'll see. Probably the Sony S300 (the one that went for $499).

I also think they will reduce the price on the Panny BD10a to that range.

Again, I'm no insider but with the 1.1 players coming out at 499 I'd think they'd sell the 1.0 ones in that range soon.

JTK · 11-07-2007, 02:54 PM

Firesales, Paramount, etc. It all amounts to short term tactics for quickie boost that have no real mileage or long term payoffs.

This A2 $98 firesale really reminded me of the last days' of the Sega Dreamcast being firesold off at $49.99.

There's a lot of parallels when you take a closer look at all of it.

(And yes, I loved the DC and it was a great system ahead of its time, but you get my point.

)

Living Near Shamu · 11-07-2007, 03:00 PM

Hey, my dad got me one of those at $29.99!!!

I wanted it for the longest that there were no games left after they were on clearance, lol. I think i played the same game over and over again.

WickyWoo · 11-07-2007, 03:04 PM

HDers keep citing the razor/blade scenario

Unfortunately they miss something

1- You need to shave, you don't need HD movies (well, not me, 1 blade lasts me a month cause I only shave my neck every few days

)
2- A single company sells those blades for about $1.50 each retail price. Total cost of manufacture is pennies each. Toshiba on the other hand at best makes a nickle a disc. At a $170 loss per deck, they have to sell 3400 discs for every one of those decks to make it back.

The other difference is that Dreamcast was a great system. Well designed, powerful. Its biggest problem is that their last 2 systems had left a bad taste in consumer mouths

JumboJoe · 11-07-2007, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coltboy

My Wally World had about 30 HD players and 2 Blu-ray players and now they are down to 1 BD player and 2 HD players. someone is buying them

i really hope they just moved them to the back in the stock room but i dunno

Lets not go worry ColtBoy.

Lets just hope that they all get returned next week once people figure out they are made from bailing wire and scrap metal and they don't has the backing of a clean major studio like Sony.

BlueRay must win!

Oblivion · 11-07-2007, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

There is a bigger problem here than you realize...
Right now the only major manufacturer of HD-DVD players is... Toshiba.
Blu-ray has many many many manufacturers, and that keeps a healthy competition and builds a strong foundation for the format.
Now that Toshiba has lowered the price of the HD-DVD player to $100, no one in their right mind would join them to build HD-DVD players in the future.

Not sure I agree with that theory - Toshiba is the only major HD DVD producer but we and they know that and it isn't going to change overnight. What the firesale does do though is entrench the brand. The latest figures - 100,000 standalones and 210,000 xbox addons in the last month - will account for 1 million+ disks before Xmas assuming 3 or 4 disk attach rates. That's alot and will encourage Blu only producers to add HD DVD to their devices to ensure sales. And I think in a dual format world we'll lose; studios will be drawn to the (alleged) cheaper production of HD DUD.

akristler · 11-07-2007, 03:14 PM

At my Wally World we got 18 of the DUD players and now have 2 left, and I am not worried at all. I Stopped two people from buying that Crap DUD machine and sold 3 PS3 to boot. GO BLu!!! and Also I am now at 31 Blu's - just picked up: Pixar Volume 1, Cars and Ratatoooie(sp)

RobertB · 11-07-2007, 03:14 PM

So...how many of the A2 buyers are current 360 HD-DVD addon owners?

I just cant for the life of me see how this firesale can make much of a dent in the HD market. People who wait to buy a player for 100 bucks just wont be blowing 100s of dollars every week on movies. No way...

yakman · 11-07-2007, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

There is a bigger problem here than you realize...
Right now the only major manufacturer of HD-DVD players is... Toshiba.

Right now that may be a benefit for Toshiba as they don't have to answer to any other CE company regarding player prices. As some have pointed out game consoles only have one hardware manufacturer and it hasn't hurt Sony, Nintendo, or M$.

sj001 · 11-07-2007, 03:18 PM

Any informed consumer, which many will be if they are going to be dropping a lot of money on a high-def TV, will really wonder what is up when they see that Blu-ray has numerous CE's, while HD-DVD, who do they have? Um, Toshiba, and Toshiba, and Toshiba, anything else, nope.

sj001 · 11-07-2007, 03:20 PM

I know that Toshiba has a big stake in this, BUT, so do several other very powerful companies like Disney, Fox, Sony, Panasonic, Philips, and TDK. I don't think they would just let thing slip away. I think we are seeing the end of this format war.

JumboJoe · 11-07-2007, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oblivion

Not sure I agree with that theory - Toshiba is the only major HD DVD producer but we and they know that and it isn't going to change overnight. What the firesale does do though is entrench the brand. The latest figures - 100,000 standalones and 210,000 xbox addons in the last month - will account for 1 million+ disks before Xmas assuming 3 or 4 disk attach rates. That's alot and will encourage Blu only producers to add HD DVD to their devices to ensure sales. And I think in a dual format world we'll lose; studios will be drawn to the (alleged) cheaper production of HD DUD.

Oblivion you scare me with FUD thoughts but I'm not gonna be a doubter.

Don't give in to the deseatful jedi mind trick campaign of HD-DVD. They are trying to confuse our minds and befuddle us into disdoubt. The mind is where this battle will be won-- you must believe!!!

I believe in Sony and BlueRay!!!

Think positive thoughts and get positive results.

11-07-2007, 02:00 PM	#1
stockstar1138 Banned Member since:Apr 2007	Why last week's fire sale was a mistake... Remember back last spring/summer when tosh offered the a2 for the dirt cheap price of $299 and Toshiba claimed they increased sales mucho at many stores. what happened the next week, sales went dead. people expected to be able to get players cheap and were simply not going to pay an extra $100 for an a2. guess what, anybody who wanted an a2 got one last week, it was the prime time to buy and now anything over 100 bucks for an hd dvd player seems expensive. just as ppl expected the cheaper price back then after a sale, they expect it now. so until the price goes back down to 98 bones. expect their to virtually no sales of players, especially because ppl know black friday is coming up. so what they've got 500k players on the market right now. they will be lucky to get 20k more until black fri. and then they will sell 50k over black friday (due to the fact that ppl who had been eyeing hd players, bought one last week), further xmas shopping sells another 100k, ps3 sold about 130k units last week fyi.

11-07-2007, 02:05 PM	#2
CptGreedle Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Sworn super-hero now services Atlanta (and suburbs). Blu-ray collection:128 Blu-ray reviews:5	There is a bigger problem here than you realize... Right now the only major manufacturer of HD-DVD players is... Toshiba. Blu-ray has many many many manufacturers, and that keeps a healthy competition and builds a strong foundation for the format. Now that Toshiba has lowered the price of the HD-DVD player to $100, no one in their right mind would join them to build HD-DVD players in the future. Toshiba already has the market cornered and they themselves are loosing money off of this, there is no way they are going to make anything from a product originally priced at $499 and sold at $99! No one will join them now. They have just dug themselves in a giant hole and all they can do now is keep digging. Last edited by CptGreedle; 11-07-2007 at 02:57 PM. Reason: spelling

11-07-2007, 02:12 PM	#4
Blu-Ray Buckeye Power Member Member since:Dec 2006 Location:Virginia	That's a fair point. personally I think at least one of the BD players makers needs to just crank out a cheap-ass 1080i player and be done with it. However I don't panic about it the way so many on here do... it's as if their life is consumed with worry about A2 firesales and Transformers. I would also add that people have to factor in how many of the 90k units were sold to existing HD-DVD owners.... my guess is more than half. Think about it this way: how many PS3 or blu-ray owners would consider getting another BD player if it were below $200? How about adding a 2nd PS3 so you wouldn't have to move it between rooms if it were say $249? That's right, you'd be first in line. Trust me, most of these were sold to existing HD-DVders. Of those sold to new, "unique" HD-DVD users, how many bought it not understanding the need to buy HD-DVDs at all and only plan to use them to make their existing DVDs look better? Don't say none, because you know it's some. Of the remaining folks who are truly unique, new buyers and who do understand HD-DVD disc and such... how many bought it because it was very cheap and simply won't become big spenders all of a sudden. You always have a major problem when you try to win on being cheap---------> but your actual media are very expensive. Think about it in real terms and in regard to real economics of the Walmart customer. You have a cheap console but media twice as high as standard DVDs. What is PS3 or 360 suddenly started selling at $199 but they made their games $100+. Would you really boost s/w sales? Last edited by Blu-Ray Buckeye; 11-07-2007 at 03:38 PM.

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11-07-2007, 02:13 PM	#5
stockstar1138 Banned Member since:Apr 2007	toshiba at one point is going to have to look at this and say, we can't keep doing this. i mean seriously components do come down, but if it was costing them $499 to make a a2, its gotta be costing them at least $250 bucks for the a3, and thats bare min. considering that by xmas next year blu-ray players will be down in the 199 range for sure. hd dvd will have to be a $49 bucks. sony has made over a hundred million ps2s and it still costs them around 50 bucks to make one and they have their manufacturing skills down pat. thus, toshiba had to massively subsidize hardware in the beginning, will never, ever make profit off hardware in the future and has sold players so cheap, that the hd media is completely out of their budget, so they are just going to watch dvds.

11-07-2007, 02:39 PM	#7
Coltboy Active Member Top ranked HT gallery Member since:Mar 2007 Location:OHIO Home Theater Gallery:72 Blu-ray collection:14 Blu-ray reviews:13	My Wally World had about 30 HD players and 2 Blu-ray players and now they are down to 1 BD player and 2 HD players. someone is buying them i really hope they just moved them to the back in the stock room but i dunno

11-07-2007, 02:43 PM	#8
Steelmaker Blu-ray Duke Member since:Mar 2007 Location:Chattanooga, TN Blu-ray reviews:1 Trading Score:1	I see this as a complete act of desparation from Toshiba and a last ditch effort to gain support from the movie studios. They will not succeed and by this time next year, this war will be over.

11-07-2007, 02:47 PM	#9
kurtlingle Expert Member Member since:Jul 2007 Blu-ray collection:82	My gut feel is that we will see some BD players drop to 299 for X-mas time. Just a guess but we'll see. Probably the Sony S300 (the one that went for $499). I also think they will reduce the price on the Panny BD10a to that range. Again, I'm no insider but with the 1.1 players coming out at 499 I'd think they'd sell the 1.0 ones in that range soon.

11-07-2007, 02:54 PM	#10
JTK Blu-ray Knight Member since:Jan 2006 Location:www.blurayoasis.com	Firesales, Paramount, etc. It all amounts to short term tactics for quickie boost that have no real mileage or long term payoffs. This A2 $98 firesale really reminded me of the last days' of the Sega Dreamcast being firesold off at $49.99. There's a lot of parallels when you take a closer look at all of it. (And yes, I loved the DC and it was a great system ahead of its time, but you get my point. )

11-07-2007, 03:00 PM	#11
Living Near Shamu Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Oct 2007 Location:Austin, TX Trading Score:42	Hey, my dad got me one of those at $29.99!!! I wanted it for the longest that there were no games left after they were on clearance, lol. I think i played the same game over and over again.

11-07-2007, 03:04 PM	#12
WickyWoo Blu-ray Champion Member since:May 2007 Trading Score:2	HDers keep citing the razor/blade scenario Unfortunately they miss something 1- You need to shave, you don't need HD movies (well, not me, 1 blade lasts me a month cause I only shave my neck every few days ) 2- A single company sells those blades for about $1.50 each retail price. Total cost of manufacture is pennies each. Toshiba on the other hand at best makes a nickle a disc. At a $170 loss per deck, they have to sell 3400 discs for every one of those decks to make it back. The other difference is that Dreamcast was a great system. Well designed, powerful. Its biggest problem is that their last 2 systems had left a bad taste in consumer mouths

11-07-2007, 03:14 PM	#15
akristler Junior Member Member since:Sep 2007 Blu-ray reviews: 1	At my Wally World we got 18 of the DUD players and now have 2 left, and I am not worried at all. I Stopped two people from buying that Crap DUD machine and sold 3 PS3 to boot. GO BLu!!! and Also I am now at 31 Blu's - just picked up: Pixar Volume 1, Cars and Ratatoooie(sp)

11-07-2007, 03:14 PM	#16
RobertB Active Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Trondheim, Norway	So...how many of the A2 buyers are current 360 HD-DVD addon owners? I just cant for the life of me see how this firesale can make much of a dent in the HD market. People who wait to buy a player for 100 bucks just wont be blowing 100s of dollars every week on movies. No way...

11-07-2007, 03:18 PM	#18
sj001 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Rochester, NY Blu-ray collection:317 DVD collection:17 Trading Score:5	Any informed consumer, which many will be if they are going to be dropping a lot of money on a high-def TV, will really wonder what is up when they see that Blu-ray has numerous CE's, while HD-DVD, who do they have? Um, Toshiba, and Toshiba, and Toshiba, anything else, nope.

11-07-2007, 03:20 PM	#19
sj001 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Rochester, NY Blu-ray collection:317 DVD collection:17 Trading Score:5	I know that Toshiba has a big stake in this, BUT, so do several other very powerful companies like Disney, Fox, Sony, Panasonic, Philips, and TDK. I don't think they would just let thing slip away. I think we are seeing the end of this format war.

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