shipped/sold dark red degrees of a circle thing

[TheTenth]

do the Nielsen numbers give the hardware sales? PS3, X360, Wii because nexgenwars and VGchartz don't seem right (X360 in mid december 2006 at 9.5 M and now at 13.00 M : only 3.5 M in 10.5 months??? ridiculous)
if not any reliable site on hardware numbers?

[xbd]

Originally Posted by TheTenth

do the Nielsen numbers give the hardware sales? PS3, X360, Wii because nexgenwars and VGchartz don't seem right (X360 in mid december 2006 at 9.5 M and now at 13.00 M : only 3.5 M in 10.5 months??? ridiculous)
if not any reliable site on hardware numbers?

Those numbers are accurate in terms of 360 sales.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by xbd

Those numbers are accurate in terms of 360 sales.

Yeah close enough. While his weekly numbers are little more than estimates by him, the site updates past month numbers based on NPD and mediacreate and some European version numbers, which ARE like Nielsen, so those overall tallies are pretty close enough to reality.

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by xbd

Those numbers are accurate in terms of 360 sales.

And you would know this as certain....how?

[xbd]

Originally Posted by Luis_A51

And you would know this as certain....how?

Because I follow Microsoft's quarterly financial reporting, where they announce their quarterly shipped figures.

It always startles me how cynical and ready to doubt a claim from a "non" official source everyone always is; yet at the same time any and every rumor from any quasi official source is accepted as fact straight away. It's a lack of critical thinking and laziness in doing individual research that's led us to this state of being on the Internet.

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by xbd

Because I follow Microsoft's quarterly financial reporting, where they announce their quarterly shipped figures.

Shipped ≠ sold.

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Shipped ≠ sold.

Unless you're Paramount.

[xbd]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Shipped ≠ sold.

You can't sell any more than you've shipped, certainly that logic should ring clear for everyone.

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by xbd

You can't sell anymore than you've shipped, certainly that logic should ring clear for everyone.

No doubt. You can sell less.

[xbd]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

No doubt. You can sell less.

Right. So if you backtrack to the question I was answering in the first place...

[Joe Cain]

Yeah, I know---you were saying that some third party's sold numbers were accurate based on your knowledge of shipped figures. No offense intended. I'm simply suggesting the best you can personally vouch for would be that those numbers are not inaccurate, which is not exactly the same thing.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by xbd

Because I follow Microsoft's quarterly financial reporting, where they announce their quarterly shipped figures.

It always startles me how cynical and ready to doubt a claim from a "non" official source everyone always is; yet at the same time any and every rumor from any quasi official source is accepted as fact straight away. It's a lack of critical thinking and laziness in doing individual research that's led us to this state of being on the Internet.

The problem with following shipped figures is the fact that doesn't represent what was sold at retail. MS will say they shipped 14 million units but that doesn't mean each of those units were purchased by a customer.

To be counted as part of X360's installed base you need to sell it to a customer. That's why I never look at what MS or Sony's numbers. NPD is a much better source for that. I do believe though X360 is around those numbers since Halo3 launched.

[xbd]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

Yeah, I know---you were saying that some third party's sold numbers were accurate based on your knowledge of shipped figures. No offense intended. I'm simply suggesting the best you can personally vouch for would be that those numbers are not inaccurate, which is not exactly the same thing.

Originally Posted by BluOgre

The problem with following shipped figures is the fact that doesn't represent what was sold at retail. MS will say they shipped 14 million units but that doesn't mean each of those units were purchased by a customer.

To be counted as part of X360's installed base you need to sell it to a customer. That's why I never look at what MS or Sony's numbers. NPD is a much better source for that. I do believe though X360 is around those numbers since Halo3 launched.

You both are confused. This is the statement I was originally responding to:

X360 in mid december 2006 at 9.5 M and now at 13.00 M : only 3.5 M in 10.5 months??? ridiculous

By bringing up the Microsoft financials, I was highlighting that indeed the total 360 sell-through to this point is in the vicinity of ~13 million, and that the figures in contention were not "ridiculous." I think in that vein, citing financials/shipped figures is very much a solid, 100% factual way of laying the doubt to rest.

All this talk of NPDs and third-parties, besides not even being what I was speaking to in the first place (rather simply showing how the cap is indeed ~13 million), IMO serves as a gateway to a conversation that is ultimately a waste of time. That being a gaming/NPD conversation.

If you look for example at my posts after the claim of Spider-man over 200k were made, I think you'll find that I am first in line among those that seek the 'real' stats, so there's no need to worry about whether or not I understand shipped, sold, and other such nuances.

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by xbd

You both are confused. This is the statement I was originally responding to:

X360 in mid december 2006 at 9.5 M and now at 13.00 M : only 3.5 M in 10.5 months??? ridiculous

By bringing up the Microsoft financials, I was highlighting that indeed the total 360 sell-through to this point is in the vicinity of ~13 million, and that the figures in contention were not "ridiculous." I think in that vein, citing financials/shipped figures is very much a solid, 100% factual way of laying the doubt to rest.

All this talk of NPDs and third-parties, besides not even being what I was speaking to in the first place (rather simply showing how the cap is indeed ~13 million), IMO serves as a gateway to a conversation that is ultimately a waste of time. That being a gaming/NPD conversation.

If you look for example at my posts after the claim of Spider-man over 200k were made, I think you'll find that I am first in line among those that seek the 'real' stats, so there's no need to worry about whether or not I understand shipped, sold, and other such nuances.

I will never deny being tragically confused.

Agreed, the numbers are not "ridiculous." I stand by my semantic nitpicking.

The initial question was not asked to specifically to you, so I fail to see why you should bag on anyone who responds to your answer posted in a public forum. You could always send a PM.

[sj001]

Originally Posted by xbd

You both are confused. This is the statement I was originally responding to:

X360 in mid december 2006 at 9.5 M and now at 13.00 M : only 3.5 M in 10.5 months??? ridiculous

By bringing up the Microsoft financials, I was highlighting that indeed the total 360 sell-through to this point is in the vicinity of ~13 million, and that the figures in contention were not "ridiculous." I think in that vein, citing financials/shipped figures is very much a solid, 100% factual way of laying the doubt to rest.

All this talk of NPDs and third-parties, besides not even being what I was speaking to in the first place (rather simply showing how the cap is indeed ~13 million), IMO serves as a gateway to a conversation that is ultimately a waste of time. That being a gaming/NPD conversation.

If you look for example at my posts after the claim of Spider-man over 200k were made, I think you'll find that I am first in line among those that seek the 'real' stats, so there's no need to worry about whether or not I understand shipped, sold, and other such nuances.

You sound familiar, weren't you just here, but under a different name?

[xbd]

Originally Posted by Joe Cain

The initial question was not asked to specifically to you, so I fail to see why you should bag on anyone who responds to your answer posted in a public forum. You could always send a PM.

Fair enough, but beyond trying to verify the credibility of my claim, my post was more a mini-rant as to an Internet populace that needs information - both supports and rebuttals - spoon fed to them. What greater research tool is there in the world than the Internet? Yet I feel that it's more likely sometimes that someone would ask what the weather is currently in San Francisco rather than take the two seconds to go to weather channel and look it up themselves.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by xbd

Those numbers are accurate in terms of 360 sales.

Originally Posted by xbd

You both are confused. This is the statement I was originally responding to:

X360 in mid december 2006 at 9.5 M and now at 13.00 M : only 3.5 M in 10.5 months??? ridiculous

By bringing up the Microsoft financials, I was highlighting that indeed the total 360 sell-through to this point is in the vicinity of ~13 million, and that the figures in contention were not "ridiculous." I think in that vein, citing financials/shipped figures is very much a solid, 100% factual way of laying the doubt to rest.

All this talk of NPDs and third-parties, besides not even being what I was speaking to in the first place (rather simply showing how the cap is indeed ~13 million), IMO serves as a gateway to a conversation that is ultimately a waste of time. That being a gaming/NPD conversation.

If you look for example at my posts after the claim of Spider-man over 200k were made, I think you'll find that I am first in line among those that seek the 'real' stats, so there's no need to worry about whether or not I understand shipped, sold, and other such nuances.

Ok if you want to get technical to what I was refering to:

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTenth
"do the Nielsen numbers give the hardware sales? PS3, X360, Wii because nexgenwars and VGchartz don't seem right (X360 in mid december 2006 at 9.5 M and now at 13.00 M : only 3.5 M in 10.5 months??? ridiculous)
if not any reliable site on hardware numbers? "

Your answer:

"Those numbers are accurate in terms of 360 sales."


Then you go on to say start quoting shipping numbers and NOT sales. That is what my problem with your comment was about. The original question you answered was about the reliablity of X360 having sold only 3.5 million units this year from retailers to customers.....not 3.5 million units being shipped from MS to retailers.

The original question was trying to compare sites that track sales in hadware like Nielsen tracks software sales. Nielsen DOESN'T track what was shipped. That's why I said if you want to deal with actual sales like Nielsen you can't go by what MS says they shipped in the finanicals.

I don't care how close you think the sales are to shipped they are NOT exact. The only console you could probably equate shipped to being retail sales is the Wii. That's only because it sells immidately. X360 and PS3 do not have this wonderful problem.

[xbd]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

...

BluOgre yes, you already stated as much when you said that your problem with my post was semantics-related. Semantics is a word I understand as well you know.

The original question was trying to compare sites that track sales in hadware like Nielsen tracks software sales.

But that's just it though, those sites *do not* track the sales as NPD does - indeed their own figures are just an abstraction/amalgam of other legitimate tracking systems. And in that, I feel their numbers are worthwhile to an extent.

Yet knowing also that European tracking is very very weak on a stat basis, if we're looking at global figures, everything else aside I think truly that shipped numbers are the way to go, especially as the general pool of ownership grows larger. There is only ever a certain amount of hardware in the channel: replacement stock means shifted units.

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I don't care how close you think the sales are to shipped they are NOT exact.

But it can't possibly be exact figures that you're looking for, since NPD numbers themselves are not exact. Shipped numbers are the exact shipped numbers, whereas sales figures are only ever degrees of educated guess.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by xbd

BluOgre yes, you already stated as much when you said that your problem with my post was semantics-related. Semantics is a word I understand as well you know.



But that's just it though, those sites *do not* track the sales as NPD does - indeed their own figures are just an abstraction/amalgam of other legitimate tracking systems. And in that, I feel their numbers are worthwhile to an extent.

Yet knowing also that European tracking is very very weak on a stat basis, if we're looking at global figures, everything else aside I think truly that shipped numbers are the way to go, especially as the general pool of ownership grows larger. There is only ever a certain amount of hardware in the channel: replacement stock means shifted units.

Here is the problem I have with that, MS back in June or July of this year had announced their "shipped" numbers. That was not their sell off at retail and if memory serves me right it wasn't even close. Everyone knew it was shipped because NPD released their figures and it wasn't even close.

I have no problem saying that X360 is around 13 million in retail sales atm because that is sounds about right. But I'll never go by their qtr ending or yearly financials of shipped numbers. Mainly because ALL of them like to flood the market at the end of each qtr/year to make their "projected" shipped numbers. MS and Sony will try to inflate the numbers as much as possible since it seems their consoles have been meet with low sales....unlike the Wii.

There is also a reason why X360 didn't make their targeted shipped numbers at the end of their last year. The console slowed to a crawl in sales and wasn't moving at retail. No sales = no reorders. With that in mind how can you say with confindance that shipped numbers are just as accurate as NPD numbers? They can say they shipped 16 million consoles by Dec 31, 2007.....are you going to trust that means they sold 16 million units?

One more thing, there is a reason why MS specifically says these are SHIPPED numbers and not sales. Remember what happened with Universal and Shrek 2 years ago....they tried to pass off their shipped numbers as retail sales and got in trouble because of stock holders. That's just another reason why shipped does not equal sold. If MS is not willing to go on a limb and say they are sold, why should we? If you want to go by shipped I suppose you think Spiderman 3 on BR sold 400k units (after all that is what shipped).

[xbd]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

Here is the problem I have with that, MS back in June or July of this year had announced their "shipped" numbers. That was not their sell off at retail and if memory serves me right it wasn't even close. Everyone knew it was shipped because NPD released their figures and it wasn't even close.

MS stuffed the channel to meet their corporate shipment targets last fiscal year; but this is the exception rather than the norm. I think more importantly than understanding that though, is understanding that I'm not saying that shipped numbers > than NPD numbers in terms of merit. I'm saying that both fill a role in understanding the landscape, but of the two only the shipped figures are exact.

Without the sales figures there's no context for what the shipped figures actually translate to. But once that context is established, I feel that the shipped figures - and more importantly the tone and answers to questions fielded during the conference calls - actually provides the bulk of the insights.

There's no black/white in this world in terms of data that's good and data that's bad. MS stuffed the channel last year and anyone paying attention knew it, so you took that grain of salt with their reports. But that doesn't mean that all shipment figures are to be viewed cynically or with suspicion; what it means is just that it's always up to the reader to determine and put the effort forth to see if things are to be taken at face value. Which goes along with my 'critical thinking' and 'research effort' theme/rant.

I have no problem saying that X360 is around 13 million in retail sales atm because that is sounds about right. But I'll never go by their qtr ending or yearly financials of shipped numbers. Mainly because ALL of them like to flood the market at the end of each qtr/year to make their "projected" shipped numbers. The numbers are always padded with the exception of Nintendo's Wii because again by the time they report their shipped numbers it's probably already sold.

The numbers aren't always padded... in fact I'd say they're not even padded most of the time. Padded implies designed to look better, but truly they just look how they look, because they are always compared against the same metric: previous shipped figures. After MS stuffed the channel, their subsequent quarterly shipments were extremely small, and that didn't go without notice in the investor community.

There is also a reason why X360 didn't make their targeted shipped numbers at the end of their last year. The console slowed to a crawl in sales and wasn't moving at retail. No sales = no reoders. With that in mind how can you say with confindance that shipped numbers are just as accurate as NPD numbers?

I agree, but again I'm not saying one is accurate and one is not; it's just a matter of what you're looking to gain in terms of insights. If I only had NPD numbers, I would want shipped figures as well. If I only had shipped figures, I would want NPD numbers as well. I think it's honestly a benefit that NPD will be moving to a quarterly reporting system as far as gaming is concerned: more opportunity for high-level vantage and should juxtapose nicely with shipped announcements. As it stands now the monthly slug-fest across forums is a distraction.

They can say they shipped 16 million consoles by Dec 31, 2007.....are you going to trust that means they sold 16 million units?

No, I'm not. I don't "trust" much. But I would feel comfortable saying they didn't sell more than 16 million under the above scenario, and that's what all this is about in the first place.