Has Blu-ray already won?

[Spankey]

I don't like getting into HD-DVD bashing threads, and those based merely on speculation, but the more I read, it seems like the tide of opinion is steadilly turning towards Blu-ray. All it took on internet boards was for a few HD-DVD fans to buy into Blu-ray and some recent titles to be launched on the format. More and more people are asking about players and now that classic DVD titles and new releases are coming, HD-DVD is just about out of ammo.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by sltmag

I don't like getting into HD-DVD bashing threads, and those based merely on speculation, but the more I read, it seems like the tide of opinion is steadilly turning towards Blu-ray. All it took on internet boards was for a few HD-DVD fans to buy into Blu-ray and some recent titles to be launched on the format. More and more people are asking about players and now that classic DVD titles and new releases are coming, HD-DVD is just about out of ammo.

No neither format is out of ammo. In fact they are reloading. I too notice renewed interest in Blu-ray which I attribute to a couple of factors.

1. Better quality and more plentiful movies.
2. Hardware cost decreases (cheaper Sammy's and the PS3 coming)

Those factors goes a LONG way. Hell they might even have me purchasing a player soon rather than later. Buckle up toto..the ride's about to get bumpy.

[JTK]

^^ Yup.

Too early to declare an outright winner.

[mnmarcus]

Originally Posted by JTK

^^ Yup.

Too early to declare an outright winner.

I figure that Blu-ray has a good chance since it has Sony and Panasonic behind it, so I made the investment.

If I'm wrong, my new $1100 Panny will end up in the closet with my Pioneer Laserdisc players.

[Blue]

I think the war has been won - there are just a number of battles still in progress.
Toshiba need more than Universal and Microsoft on side. Toshiba are cutting their own throat in a couple of ways.
1. They are spending money on a product whoose success is very doubtful
2. They make TV's and other high def displays. This market is being stunted by them having the HD-DVD out and about.
My prediction Toshiba will get a License to make a Hybrid player to gracefully exit the HD-DVD arena. I would say at the CES in a years time (not this comming Jan the one after)

[JTK]

Originally Posted by mnmarcus

I figure that Blu-ray has a good chance since it has Sony and Panasonic behind it, so I made the investment.

If I'm wrong, my new $1100 Panny will end up in the closet with my Pioneer Laserdisc players.

Lots of anger and complaining in your brief post history here thus far.

Take it easy.

I very seriously doubt that your Panasonic BD player is going to end up collecting dust.

Blue's post above mine spells it out combined with this: https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=3665

[Dave]

I also do not think that the war is over, but the power which Blu-Ray has is so great that i hope HDDVD manages to exist long enough so that is helps our camp get better and cheaper faster than we even expect it to

I think that HD DVD existence is not a threat to us but more like stimulus

But i think that even the most aggressive HDDVD fans will jump ship faster then we expect them to do so

[Jim L]

And the day that Blu-ray titles available exceed those on HD-DVD, it will add more momentum to the Blu-ray adoption rate.

From reading the AVS Forums (I know . . . I should stay out of there) I can tell that there is some discontent on the HD-DVD side with hardware. Their only choice is really Toshiba (or RCA). From what I hear, the Toshiba outputs a great picture, but a good number of owners say it still has several glitches even after the latest firmware update. I don't think I could tolerate a player that locks up or stutters as often as I hear they do. I don't hear these kinds of complaints from Sammy and Panny owners.

When the Blu-ray side will have 3 (or more) quality players to choose from it will be a compelling argument to prospective adopters. The Panny, Sony, and Pioneer players will look, function, and perform like quality pieces of home theater equipment (instead of what some Toshiba owners have called a clunky box of old laptop parts). Sure, they will all cost more than an HD-DVD player but early adopters aren't entirely price driven. Personally, I would rather have something that is nice looking and functions smoothly in my setup than something that is $500 cheaper. You do get what you pay for!

Soon there won't be a whole lot for the HD-DVD folks to cling to.
Their early advantages are being knocked off one by one:

• First to market - HD-DVD had many advantages with this, but with Blu-ray in full launch mode now the publicity and interest should shift to Blu-ray.
• Greater title selection - Blu-ray is quickly catching up (I think less than 20 titles behind now) and will soon pass HD-DVD. With only Universal going full tilt they can't hope to compete with Sony/Fox/Disney/MGM when they all turn on the pipeline
• Cheaper players - The PS3 is an inexpensive alternative player and the Samsung is now being discounted heavily (~$600).
• Better video quality in transfers - Blu-ray transfers have improved from all studios. I'll bet that Fox now has the best transfers on any format. They took the crown on D-Theater. I don't see how anything could look better than X-3 or LXG.
• Better sound quality - with LPCM on more discs, Blu-ray has the edge here. There's more to come with DTS-HDMA from Fox.
• Capacity advantage - now that Blu-ray can release large quanitites of BD-50s on many titles the advantage is now Blu-ray's.
• Interactivity advantage - I'm interested to see how BD-J will be used on future titles. I think Fox is only scratching the surface so far. HD-DVD is ahead in this area, but not for long.
• Movie disc prices - I'm hoping that with recorders, laptops, and PS3 media being produced it will help Blu-ray achieve more economies of scale which could help lower disc production costs. I doubt that we'll see much passed on in movie prices. Right now the average price for either format is about the same.

[Blackraven]

Universal would need to stay as an HD-DVD exclusive if they want to continue their offensive.

They know that once they lose Universal switches to the other side, they would've lost their exclusive studio and it would mean victory goes to Blu-ray.

It also means that if they don't keep Universal with them, I won't be buying an HD-DVD player.

I've clocked around AT LEAST 10 titles for my Blu-ray purchase next year (Speed, Transporter 1 and 2, Kill Bill 1 & 2, LXG, Final Fantasy : Advent Children, V for Vendetta, Gone In 60 secs. and From Hell).

If they lose Universal now, then I won't be able to buy their Rundown and Fast and Furious: Tokyo Drift title. Also, don't forget that if the switch happens, they would lose out on the Bourne trilogy (with Bourne Ultimatum coming out next year) for HD-DVD.

If they lose Universal, then there won't be anymore reason to buy HD-DVD.

P.S. EDIT

In regards to hardware, the HD-DVD sector is under threat if only Toshiba remains the primary manufacturer. I mean, RCA is just a mirror copy of Toshiba, Lite-on produces for both formats and the other PC OEM makers ship on both.

Also, the threat of inferior quality products like the HD-A1 makes the situation worse and the fact that the HD-E1 and HD-XE1 have been delayed for Europe (where Blu-ray has the lead in the movie count: Blu-ray with 54 vs. HD-DVD with less than 20 so far)

The upcoming XA2 needs to give them a boost in spite of the delay. But then again, it's going to be priced heavily as well (like the Samsung and Panasonic at launch).

The handicap of having lesser CE support means that it is working against HD-DVD and they have to think of something in order to stay in the game. Otherwise, the current trajectory would be that Blu-ray would beat them.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Blackraven

Universal would need to stay as an HD-DVD exclusive if they want to continue their offensive.

And I honestly think that's been overstated and overrated.

Yes, Universal is sitting on some nice movies, but barring something totally absurd, logic and common sense tells us that simple economics and good business sense will force them to stop completely ignoring BD within the next 6-12 months, at most.

Everything else is already covered by BD anyways.

They know that once they lose Universal switches to the other side, they would've lost their exclusive studio and it would mean victory goes to Blu-ray.

Exactly. The format war is over the moment Universal blinks.

It also means that if they don't keep Universal with them, I won't be buying an HD-DVD player.

Honestly? Why should anyone at this point, at least they really have zero patience and just MUST have some of those Universal movies in HD vs. waiting 6 months or so and letting nature take its course.

As someone who owned HD-DVD and ran it through its paces for six weeks, I can't imagine why anyone on the fence coming into it would buy one of those crappy Toshiba players for the sake of 40 percent studio support and Universal, but that's just me.

I've clocked around AT LEAST 10 titles for my Blu-ray purchase next year (Speed, Transporter 1 and 2, Kill Bill 1 & 2, LXG, Final Fantasy : Advent Children, V for Vendetta, Gone In 60 secs. and From Hell).

If they lose Universal now, then I won't be able to buy their Rundown and Fast and Furious: Tokyo Drift title.

A lot of the Universal titles that have been out thus far have hardly been A list, system selling titles, regardless of format. Let's be honest here.

Also, don't forget that if the switch happens, they would lose out on the Bourne trilogy (with Bourne Ultimatum coming out next year) for HD-DVD.

I can wait.

The fact of the matter is: People that own a BD player of some sort are going to be well taken care of with 90 percent studio support and have plenty of great movies to keep them busy while we wait for Universal to get over themselves and get their heads out of their @!#$@es.

If they lose Universal, then there won't be anymore reason to buy HD-DVD.

There isn't now, honestly. Not for the sake of even a modicum of patience.

[Blackraven]

Originally Posted by Blue

2. They make TV's and other high def displays.

Too bad their REGZA line of LCD TVs SUCK!!! Sad really because such bad product history *might* (i repeat might) ruin SED.

New technology but low in features and lesser bang per buck (or lesser value).

Otherwise, OLED might beat SED if Toshiba doesn't get its act together.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Blackraven

Too bad their REGZA line of LCD TVs SUCK!!! Sad really because such bad product history *might* (i repeat might) ruin SED.

New technology but low in features and lesser bang per buck (or lesser value).

Otherwise, OLED might beat SED if Toshiba doesn't get its act together.

I can't imagine buying a Toshiba display of any kind.

I love SED on paper, but I really have a very low opinion of Toshiba and Canon is a company I might printers or cameras from and that's about it.

[Blue]

Originally Posted by Jim L

• First to market - HD-DVD had many advantages with this, but with Blu-ray in full launch mode now the publicity and interest should shift to Blu-ray.

I think the first to market maybe now coming back to haunt Toshiba. I can't comment on the Sammy, but with the Panasonic, they have developed their Blu Ray player. They have taken the time to put the electronics into large scale Integrated Circuits. This means that changes can be easilly done incrementally. Toshiba on the other hand (although a very smart idea) wrapped a pc in a DVD player's box with a HD Drive and called it a HD-DVD player. At some point in time they are going to have to do what Panasonic and presumably Philips, Pioneeer and Sony are doing and make a dedicated player / burner. Once you start something new there are all sorts of problems that take time to resolve. Just ask Pioneer, Sony etc.

There were 2 advantages in HD-DVD's argument.
1. The disc was physically the same as DVD so no need to change current production lines.
2. Cheaper because there is no need to change curent production lines ( refer to 1).
There were some holes in their arguments which is not suprising as I think the real argument was we have bucket loads of many comming in from royalties from DVD and we don't want to loose that. I think the reasoning behind the Blu Ray camp was, how can we change this DVD enough not to pay royalties. Remember at the end of the day none of the companies care about bringning the best video experience to the consumer, A company is in existance for one reason and only one reason to make money. The smarter companies try and get a reputation so customers will keep comming back to give them more money. That is not to say a company will deliberatly take a loss in one area for other benifits.