Wonder Woman (2017)

[captveg]

Originally Posted by ClownPrinceofCrime

Wonder Woman will have to open to nearly 150m in order to perform as good as Man of Steel given the competition that surrounds it, which is stronger than MoS faced. MoS also had the benefit of being the DCEU's opener, meaning all of the anticipation and none of the negativity. All decks are stacked against WW, thanks largely to the DCEU itself. If the movie manages anywhere north of 225m with decent wom from both critics and audiences alike it should be considered a win.

I think you're significantly underestimating it's box office potential, as well as the box office impact of The Mummy.

It likely opens in the Man of Steel range ($115m) and gets to $250-275m before Transformers opens, with it settling in the $300m range.

Also, there was no official DCEU when Man of Steel opened. It was largely perceived as a stand alone at the time, with sequel potential.

[dallywhitty]

That new poster is lush!

[MJD64]

Unless this movie is a total dog, I think it'll perform quite well.

At the screening of Batman V Superman I attended, the audience went wild for her when she appeared at the climactic fight. The character of Wonder Woman has the power to appeal equally to men and women.

I think The Mummy is going to be less of a box-office threat than fans think, and though Transformers has a fervid fan-base, I'd love to see Wonder Woman obliterate it at the box-office.

[ClownPrinceofCrime]

Originally Posted by captveg

I think you're significantly underestimating it's box office potential, as well as the box office impact of The Mummy.

It likely opens in the Man of Steel range ($115m) and gets to $250-275m before Transformers opens, with it settling in the $300m range.

Also, there was no official DCEU when Man of Steel opened. It was largely perceived as a stand alone at the time, with sequel potential.

I have very good reasons to underestimate it's BO potential, which as I mentioned, is largely due to the DCEU itself. Unless the movie turns out to be spectacular it is not reaching 300m if opening only at 115m. I think you're underestimating the BO impact of The Mummy, probably because you think a TC-led movie can no longer perform. However, that's just one movie in WW's immediate vicinity. The weekend prior has PotC 5 opening and there's Cars 3 and All Eyez On Me the week after The Mummy before Last Knight. Compare that to MoS' competition.

Precisely. MoS came in with zero burden and it still only managed a 115m opening. WW has the stigma of the DCEU to deal with. And MoS was never a standalone film. It was the stepping stone for the DCEU.

[dgoswald]

I keep mistaking the WW skirt, as worn by Gadot, to be denim, lol. It looks a dark blue stonewash.

[captveg]

Originally Posted by ClownPrinceofCrime

I have very good reasons to underestimate it's BO potential, which as I mentioned, is largely due to the DCEU itself. Unless the movie turns out to be spectacular it is not reaching 300m if opening only at 115m. I think you're underestimating the BO impact of The Mummy, probably because you think a TC-led movie can no longer perform. However, that's just one movie in WW's immediate vicinity. The weekend prior has PotC 5 opening and there's Cars 3 and All Eyez On Me the week after The Mummy before Last Knight. Compare that to MoS' competition.

Precisely. MoS came in with zero burden and it still only managed a 115m opening. WW has the stigma of the DCEU to deal with. And MoS was never a standalone film. It was the stepping stone for the DCEU.

The DCEU has had openings of $116m (when it wasn't perceived as a shared universe), $166m, and $133m. You phrase this as though these are weak openings. They are absolutely not, "stigma" or otherwise.

Man of Steel's $116m US opening was the 3rd best of 2013, BTW, behind only Iron Man 3 ($174m) and The Hunger Game: Catching Fire ($158m). "Only" $116m.... (Thor: The Dark World opened later that year at $85m).

I actually think WW could push $130m opening because of its draw from women. I was being conservative.

Man of Steel got to $291m after a $116m opening, and that was with mixed / leaning positive, but not overwhelming, word of mouth. And I expect word of mouth for WW to better it.

You mention the lesser competition that MoS had, but I don't see how it's much different than WW's. The weekend after MoS was released you got World War Z and Monsters University, very strong comparably to The Mummy and Cars 3 - and WW has a week longer without Cars 3, unlike MoS with MU. MoS then had Despicable Me 2 three weeks after its release, a movie that I guarantee TF: The Last Knight won't match for US box office.

The Mummy is a film I'm personally looking forward to. I think TC can draw some people in still. But that draw power is definitely coming to an end. It's nothing personal towards TC though - star power simply doesn't sell tickets like it used to, as evidenced by The Circle or Cruise's own Jack Reacher: Never Go Back. The Mummy is probably opening in the $50-65m range in the US. This is a strictly business observation. If I had my wish it would open at $150-165m, but that ain't happening. $75m+ would be a huge win for Universal for The Mummy.

All Eyez on Me doesn't factor in - no one interested in it is seeing it instead of WW.

Pirates will have a strong opening the week before, but lets not forget that Pirates 4 made most of its $ overseas, and finished at $241m US when opening around the same time of year in 2011. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pirates 5 have an even more extreme US/INT split like Fast 8, topping around $225m US for 15-18% of it's WW box office.

[TheCoon]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-I7ECWZnD0c

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Michael24

So far, everything I've seen of Gal Gadot in this role makes me think she's going to do just fine. Frankly, I'm more worried about being annoyed at having to sit through two hours of Chris Pine than anything else.

[ClownPrinceofCrime]

Originally Posted by captveg

[Show spoiler]The DCEU has had openings of $116m (when it wasn't perceived as a shared universe), $166m, and $133m. You phrase this as though these are weak openings. They are absolutely not, "stigma" or otherwise.

Man of Steel's $116m US opening was the 3rd best of 2013, BTW, behind only Iron Man 3 ($174m) and The Hunger Game: Catching Fire ($158m). "Only" $116m.... (Thor: The Dark World opened later that year at $85m).

I actually think WW could push $130m opening because of its draw from women. I was being conservative.

Man of Steel got to $291m after a $116m opening, and that was with mixed / leaning positive, but not overwhelming, word of mouth. And I expect word of mouth for WW to better it.

You mention the lesser competition that MoS had, but I don't see how it's much different than WW's. The weekend after MoS was released you got World War Z and Monsters University, very strong comparably to The Mummy and Cars 3 - and WW has a week longer without Cars 3, unlike MoS with MU. MoS then had Despicable Me 2 three weeks after its release, a movie that I guarantee TF: The Last Knight won't match for US box office.

The Mummy is a film I'm personally looking forward to. I think TC can draw some people in still. But that draw power is definitely coming to an end. It's nothing personal towards TC though - star power simply doesn't sell tickets like it used to, as evidenced by The Circle or Cruise's own Jack Reacher: Never Go Back. The Mummy is probably opening in the $50-65m range in the US. This is a strictly business observation. If I had my wish it would open at $150-165m, but that ain't happening. $75m+ would be a huge win for Universal for The Mummy.

All Eyez on Me doesn't factor in - no one interested in it is seeing it instead of WW.

Pirates will have a strong opening the week before, but lets not forget that Pirates 4 made most of its $ overseas, and finished at $241m US when opening around the same time of year in 2011. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pirates 5 have an even more extreme US/INT split like Fast 8, topping around $225m US for 15-18% of it's WW box office.

Wrong!!! I never said those were "weak" openings. I said WW is not reaching 300m if it opens to 115m given its slot and not knowing how the movie is going to turn out. And opening weekends are not the stigma I'm speaking of.

I'm not. I think that's much too high even with the female factor simply because Gal is no Lawrence. You have to have the right combination of star and vehicle, and while the latter is present the former isn't. Hell, SS managed 133m in Aug, and that had Smith, Robbie, Batman, and the Joker in it.

That's the difference between you and I. You have already written off PotC, a TC movie, and Transformers based on their previous performances, and yet it's the opposite when it comes to WW. I do not have a biased perspective when it comes to those movies or a favorable on toward to the DCEU. If I'm to think that Last Knight is going to perform poorly because of AoE or DMTNT is going to suffer due to OST, then I'm looking at WW having to face an uphill battle because of DoJ or SS, you can take your pick.

MoS opened in the heels of F6, which was in its 4th weekend, and Purge. WW is opening during PotC 5's 2nd weekend and a Rock-led Baywatch, also in its 2nd weekend. I admit that MoS had stiffer competition in MU and a better than expected WWZ during its 2nd weekend. Although I don't expect The Mummy to open as high WWZ, much less MU, I think it is going to do a lot better than EoT's 30m. WW, depending on its opening weekend, should be able to secure #1. However, it's Cars 3 and All Eyez On Me after that, and I'm easily taking both of them over The Heat and White House Down. Last Knight isn't going to match DM2's overall BO, but that's irrelevant since opening weekend is what matters.

LOL...after all that, I could have sworn you had The Mummy opening to 30m or something. Your estimates are higher than mine. I have it at 50m at most.

I wouldn't be so quick to write it off, not after SOC.

At the end of the day, everything right now is speculation. It will all start to become clear once the reviews start coming in and after the first weekend for each of these movies. For all I know, PotC, Mummy, and Last Knight could all be dogshit while WW is the DCEU's Iron Man. Or WW could turn out to be another GL while DMTNT is a return to CotBP, and Last Knight a return to Transformers. However, the one thing I'm absolutely certain about is that WW will have to open close to 150m and have above average wom from both critics and audiences alike to reach 300m in the middle of summer.

[Chaotic]

Originally Posted by rodneyfaile

Wonder Woman looks like the best DC movie so far by a huge margin. I bet it will be their best reviewed, but The Mummy coming out the very next week and then Transformers: The Last Knight after that will hurt it at the box office. People like Tom Cruise and giant Michael Bay robots.

BvS had no competition the 2nd weekend but still dropped 69%. DC films just don't have legs

[captveg]

Originally Posted by ClownPrinceofCrime

You have to have the right combination of star and vehicle, and while the latter is present the former isn't.

When it comes to a character like WW, 99% of the audience doesn't care who the actress is. They are going for the character. As long as the actor doesn't bring significant negatives for the general audience - and Gadot doesn't, especially after the overall positive response to her in BvS - then the actor DOES. NOT. MATTER.

Nobody sees these tentpole films for the star power anymore.

Originally Posted by ClownPrinceofCrime

That's the difference between you and I. You have already written off PotC, a TC movie, and Transformers based on their previous performances, and yet it's the opposite when it comes to WW.

Actually, I'm doing nothing of the sort. I'm saying WW could do Man of Steel #s, which has the lowest US box office of the DCEU. So my numbers for WW are absolutely based on the previous performance of similar movies. (If WW were to hit the *average* numbers for DCEU it would open at $138m and finish with $315M. I'm estimating below those averages).

Also, summer means better weekday averages, speaking generally, which typically results in the opening weekend being a slightly smaller % of the overall final tally. Which is one reason Man of Steel's $116m is 40% of it's total $291m take rather than being closer to 50%. It's not so much "legs" as it is those extra daytime showings that kids out of school can attend.

[Impossible]

Originally Posted by Michael24

Frankly, I'm more worried about being annoyed at having to sit through two hours of Chris Pine than anything else.

Could be worse, it could be Chris Pratt x

[Chaotic]

Originally Posted by Impossible

Could be worse, it could be Chris Pratt x

Or Chris Evans

[dallywhitty]

Or Christopher Biggins.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Impossible

Could be worse, it could be Chris Pratt x

Originally Posted by Chaotic

Or Chris Evans

[Rodney-2187]

Lizza-Chris-Christie-Last-Stand-1200.jpg

[ClownPrinceofCrime]

Originally Posted by captveg

When it comes to a character like WW, 99% of the audience doesn't care who the actress is. They are going for the character. As long as the actor doesn't bring significant negatives for the general audience - and Gadot doesn't, especially after the overall positive response to her in BvS - then the actor DOES. NOT. MATTER.

Nobody sees these tentpole films for the star power anymore.

Actually, I'm doing nothing of the sort. I'm saying WW could do Man of Steel #s, which has the lowest US box office of the DCEU. So my numbers for WW are absolutely based on the previous performance of similar movies. (If WW were to hit the *average* numbers for DCEU it would open at $138m and finish with $315M. I'm estimating below those averages).

Also, summer means better weekday averages, speaking generally, which typically results in the opening weekend being a slightly smaller % of the overall final tally. Which is one reason Man of Steel's $116m is 40% of it's total $291m take rather than being closer to 50%. It's not so much "legs" as it is those extra daytime showings that kids out of school can attend.

ROFL...that is so outrageously laughable that even calling it hyperbole doesn't cut it. Let's just say for argument sake that audiences are going for the character, this Wonder Woman is nowhere near substantial enough to command a 130m plus opening weekend, and it is largely due to the fact that she is part of the DCEU. Again, nothing more than conjecture at this time, but an educated guess that can change once reviews start coming in. And I'm looking slightly beyond averaging the numbers of the other DCEU movies.

That's not accurate. DiCaprio can still sell almost any movie on his name alone, tentpole or otherwise.

And I'm saying, for WW to do MoS type overall numbers at the domestic BO, it has to have an opening closer to 150m and not 115m given the circumstances.

Sorry, but that is not correct. There is no verifiable proof that a movie performs better during summer weekdays than any other time. Actually, the reason for that is because wom for MoS and even SS were stronger than BvS. That's why both of those movies managed to get close to BvS' overall domestic gross even after having significantly lower openings.

(I can't believe you got me defending MoS, but facts are facts)

[dgoswald]

Chris Pine can do no wrong thanks to This Means War. He's alright as far as I'm concerned.

[chip75]

I'd be surprised if Wonder Woman does more than $250 million domestically (I hope it does). I'd imagine Warner Bros. are looking at $175-225 million with a decent international performance.

[MJD64]

Never had much of an opinion on Chris Pine one way or the other until Hell Or High Water. He really is terrific in that; Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster got all the accolades for their showier acting, but Pine gave a quiet, understated performance that was equally compelling.