High def war poll results over at IMDb

[Icemage]

Not good for HDM in general.

Silver lining though: Time is HD DVD's enemy. Blu-ray's 1.1 and 2.0 Profile specs will close the interactivity gap, and time will see Blu-ray hardware coming down to match HD DVD. It will also see replication costs for Blu-ray coming down much faster, since Blu-ray presses way more discs than HD DVD, courtesy of the PlayStation 3. Should Blu-ray hardware make it into the same ballpark as HD DVD, HD DVD has zero chance to win IMO.

[J_UNTITLED]

I just unfortunately feel there's a solid chance people will bypass high defintion discs entirely and just stick with ole' DVD until something vastly different arrives.

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by J_UNTITLED

I just unfortunately feel there's a solid chance people will bypass high defintion discs entirely and just stick with ole' DVD until something vastly different arrives.

Well, here's the timeline:

Now -> DVD
...
<something>
...
10 years from now -> video on demand

That <something> is what Blu-ray is trying to be. DVD sales are falling flat because the studios have been over-eager to release and re-release and re-re-release the same content over and over. Piracy is cutting into DVD sales, double/triple/worse dipping is cutting into sales, and even DVD hardware is taking a dive in sales because pretty much everyone that wants one... has one.

In theory, DVD could persist for 10 more years unmolested, but for two things:

(1) Analog signal blackout in the USA in 2009
(2) Display hardware (HDTVs) all shifting to HD resolution, which makes even upscaling questionable.

If Blu-ray hardware can get down to sub-$100 levels in, say, three or four years, and the software can hit sub-$20 levels in the same timeframe, the circle becomes complete and it should make it to mass market.

Incidentally, HD DVD's strategy is trying for an end run around this by drastically dropping hardware pricing. What the red camp doesn't want to acknowledge is that mass market won't happen while discs are still priced in the $35-$40 MSRP range, so the cheapest hardware pricing in the world won't matter since not many can afford the discs to play on said hardware.

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by Icemage

Well, here's the timeline:

Now -> DVD
...
<something>
...
10 years from now -> video on demand

I'm sorry, but if video-on-demand really will be the so-called "revolution" in the future it will not be for me. I like to have something physical/tangible to own and hold on to versus just watching something streaming on the web.

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by J_UNTITLED

I'm sorry, but if video-on-demand really will be the so-called "revolution" in the future it will not be for me. I like to have something physical/tangible to own and hold on to versus just watching something streaming on the web.

I agree, but that's still the direction things are headed. Physical media will still be around, however, since not everyone will have the connectivity to make use of VOD (nor the desire, as in your case).

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by Icemage

I agree, but that's still the direction things are headed. Physical media will still be around, however, since not everyone will have the connectivity to make use of VOD (nor the desire, as in your case).

Plus, I just don't see how something streamed or broadcasted like that will have the same amount of reliable quality (or just quality, period) that something in-the-flesh so to speak can offer.

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by J_UNTITLED

Plus, I just don't see how something streamed or broadcasted like that will have the same amount of reliable quality (or just quality, period) that something in-the-flesh so to speak can offer.

It won't, naturally.

That hasn't stopped the proliferation of MP3s over DVD-A/SACD, however.