Commentary from the Insiders Thread

[Rob71]

You know, I just get a warm and fuzzy feeling inside knowing the HD guys are so concerned with making sure I get the best movie watching experience possible.

[mattym]

heartwarming isnt it.

[WickyWoo]

1 reel typically lasts 12-15minutes. 8 minutes is awfully short for a reel, and unless you've got a print around to check it........

[crackinhedz]

Originally Posted by Icemage

Not an insider here, but point of clarification:

The PS3 does not force 24p output. It simply gives users the ability to force 24p in case their display/receiver does not correctly or consistently handle the HDMI handshaking.

This setting is turned off by default.

No, the setting is turned ON (Automatic) by default after you have downloaded firmware 1.82 or higher. (but we'll leave it at that since this is a questions for insiders thread.)

[tmax]

Originally Posted by Rob71

You know, this movie has been out for what, 3 months. How many Thousands of copies were sold, and watched 1,2,3 times and no one noticed it. Obviously it's not that big of a deal.

Just a Question, Does anybody know if the Version for Australia the same as the US?

[Rob Tomlin]

Dave Vaughn posted this at AVS:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...0#post11516620

OK…I’ve heard back from a couple of sources, and also was able to hear from a new one as well. Here is where we are:

Sony’s yields have improved “a bit” this summer and are up to around 50% depending on how much data is on the disc. The more data, the lower the yields, the lower the data, the higher the yield number goes, but 50% is just about max right now (give or take a percentage point or two).

As for independent replicators, there are four “major’s” that are capable of doing BD50’s according to my sources. They are Cinram, Deluxe, Panasonic, & Infodisc. Of these four, one of them (unnamed by the request of my source at that company) is getting yields on BD50’s up there with Sony in the 50% range. The other three can’t get above 10%, but Sony is lending a hand to them to increase their yields. I am assuming they will get things in line based upon the one independent that I referenced above who has been able to increase yields.

An interesting side note to this though is the yields on BD25’s, that are much lower than I thought they would be. Right now, the are hovering in the 60-70% range and are in the same scenario as the BD50’s when it comes to the amount of data on the disc. The lower the amount of data, the higher the yields are. At this point in the game, I would have expected the single layer discs to be much higher than they currently are.

Another thing that should be noted is that Paramount/Dreamworks was using one of the three replicators that couldn’t get the yields up above 10% on BD50’s. Could this have been one of the things that precipitated their move to HD DVD?

So, where does it leave us? For the most part, nothing has changed from what I reported last week, other than there is one major replicator of BD50 discs that have improved yields, but the other three majors can’t get them to work as of yet. These other companies are sending the work to either Sony or the other independent to do their BD50 work, which I’m sure raises their costs (outsourcing while their equipment sits idle…never a good thing in manufacturing). The good news is that the BDA is able to keep up with demand at this time, even with the lower yields and less manufacturing capacity, mainly due to the fact that sales are pretty pathetic on both formats compared to DVD. But with player adoption growing, disc sales growing, and the holiday buying season just around the corner, yield rates could become a much bigger issue the next 6 months.

Now, on to HD DVD: As Amir has stated before, there are literally hundreds of HD DVD production lines that are available in the marketplace. Since it is essentially the same process to make a HD DVD vs. a DVD, the manufacturing process is much easier to implement and yields are a lot higher. Jeff stated some numbers earlier that HD15’s and HD30’s are above 95%, and I can confirm those numbers as well from a couple of well-placed sources. But, I’ve hit a stone wall when it comes to the combo discs, which no one can seem to get the yield numbers on these. My assumption is that they aren’t as high as the HD30 and HD15 numbers since there is the extra process that needs to take place (which Amir has spoken about). Could this be one of the reason’s why “Combos” have been limited to “new releases” only and not on catalog titles? Or, was it that the studio’s (Universal especially) didn’t see the need to use combo’s anymore on the catalog titles because it wasn’t helping sales?

Comparing the two camps on this, HD DVD is in a much better position (from a manufacturing perspective). First, due to the disc thickness, the drying time of the disc making process is 50% shorter. When you throw in that the yields are about twice as high, that means you essentially have a 4-1 advantage in actually making the discs in favor of HD DVD. Again, right now that isn’t a big deal since there aren’t that many discs being pressed, but with wide adoption of both formats, HD DVD will have a manufacturing edge unless yields increase for BD50’s. Even if they can get the yields up to above 95%, they still take longer to make than an HD DVD, so in order to output the same amount of discs they will need to work twice as long or spend extra money on another fabrication line, which just adds to the overall cost.

Ok, let's assume (for the sake of argument) that most of what he says is accurate. Is this really that big of a surprise (other than the very questionable claim of some of the replicators only getting 10% yields)?

I mean, before either format was ever launched, it was understood that BD would have lower yields than HD-DVD. There was never a question about it, was there? And Vaughn indicates that the yields are, in fact, improving with Sony's help!

So what's the big deal?

I mean if there was an indication that the yields were NOT being improved, then there would be an issue. But as it is, this really doesn't seem to be all that noteworthy. Yields are improving, and will continue to improve. Such is the nature of a format that is actually A NEW FORMAT.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

Dave Vaughn posted this at AVS:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...0#post11516620



Ok, let's assume (for the sake of argument) that most of what he says is accurate. Is this really that big of a surprise (other than the very questionable claim of some of the replicators only getting 10% yields)?

I mean, before either format was ever launched, it was understood that BD would have lower yields than HD-DVD. There was never a question about it, was there? And Vaughn indicates that the yields are, in fact, improving with Sony's help!

So what's the big deal?

I mean if there was an indication that the yields were NOT being improved, then there would be an issue. But as it is, this really doesn't seem to be all that noteworthy. Yields are improving, and will continue to improve. Such is the nature of a format that is actually A NEW FORMAT.

Pesky facts.

[Spankey]

So what's the big deal?

How any of this matters to anyone other than studios is beyond me.

Has the cost of disc manufacturing been passed on to the consumer?

Have studios been charged more for replication for Blu-ray due to replication problems?

Have orders not been filled due to replicators not meeting deadlines?

Which format has seen the most problems with discs once in consumers hands?

[Icemage]

I find it odd that it is Sony that is helping the disc replicators. I would have that Panasonic would have been more active in this arena, as I thought they were more closely tied to the disc design and manufacturing processes (though come to think of it, I guess Sony has their DADC plants, which I'm sure gives them significant insight into how to optimize the process).

[David Forbes]

Originally Posted by Spankey

How any of this matters to anyone other than studios is beyond me.

Has the cost of disc manufacturing been passed on to the consumer?

Have studios been charged more for replication for Blu-ray due to replication problems?

Have orders not been filled due to replicators not meeting deadlines?

Which format has seen the most problems with discs once in consumers hands?

The insinuation is that these poor yield numbers are part of the reason Paramount switched, with the implication being other studios may do so if yields don't improve.

I agree with you, none of this directly affects either consumers or studios, at least not yet. I just wish this could be resolved with some finality, like an independent replicator coming out with BD50 yields at 80% or more.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

Dave Vaughn posted this at AVS:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...0#post11516620



Ok, let's assume (for the sake of argument) that most of what he says is accurate. Is this really that big of a surprise (other than the very questionable claim of some of the replicators only getting 10% yields)?

I mean, before either format was ever launched, it was understood that BD would have lower yields than HD-DVD. There was never a question about it, was there? And Vaughn indicates that the yields are, in fact, improving with Sony's help!

So what's the big deal?

I mean if there was an indication that the yields were NOT being improved, then there would be an issue. But as it is, this really doesn't seem to be all that noteworthy. Yields are improving, and will continue to improve. Such is the nature of a format that is actually A NEW FORMAT.

Exactly. If people are expecting BD to match DVD/HD DVD yields now, then they are demanding an end to innovation. Because nothing can ever be launched ever again, because it can't possible launch with the yields of current technology.

The issue has always been what will things be like when general adoption occurs. But, Amir has always talked as if today is the only day that matters for a decision. And really, his game has always been to stop general adoption of either format and insure that MS tech dominates the alternatives.

Nothing I have seen evening assuming the worst numbers would tell me that BD won't have great yields when it needs to, or that we all aren't paying more than enough premium to cover the added costs.

Paramount is a studio with financial problems. Wishing the on-the-cheap solution catches on to save them some money wouldn't make it an argument for HD DVD winning. We already see Universal on-the-cheap not bothering with new masters. How on-the-cheap is the "perfect" format going to get?

Gary

[JTK]

When did Dave Vaughn basically become one of Amir's most obvious carbon copy puppets? I know he's favored HD-DVD all along, but gee whiz!

[pepar]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

I mean, before either format was ever launched, it was understood that BD would have lower yields than HD-DVD. There was never a question about it, was there? And Vaughn indicates that the yields are, in fact, improving with Sony's help!

So what's the big deal?

I mean if there was an indication that the yields were NOT being improved, then there would be an issue. But as it is, this really doesn't seem to be all that noteworthy. Yields are improving, and will continue to improve. Such is the nature of a format that is actually A NEW FORMAT.

The Paramount/DW issue had been chewed through and regurgitated many times and is now pretty much dead. Profiles still get some action, though 1.1's and a 2.0 have been announced, so the fire has been dampened on that one. Yields, however, seem to be an ongoing issue - for HD-DVD partisans - and I imagine they will flail at that from every imaginable angle until the cows come home.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by mattym

indeed. Its just a stick for hddvd fanatics to bash BD supporter heads with. each supposed advantage of hddvd gets thrown out so a new plus point for hddvd has to be found. Price, value, quality etc etc etc. Not much left, it will be the logo thats under scrutiny next. Pathetic. There are not hoards of bd fans screaming about having to boil combo discs, editorials are not written about the huge failure rates of combos, but the slightest thing against bd gets blown out of all proportion.

It's a pretty stupid stick. At worst someone made a mistake on one title, and from it people are trying to make grand conclusions about a format war?

Hey, I found a spelling mistake in a Hemmingway novel. Clearly he was a crappy writer.

Gary

[RUR]

Originally Posted by David Forbes

The insinuation is that these poor yield numbers are part of the reason Paramount switched, with the implication being other studios may do so if yields don't improve.

Cynic that I am, I think it equally likely that the HD DVD camp is looking for any rationalization they can find to justify the Paramount/DW switch. It doesn't have to be true, it just has to seem true enough to deflect the actual reasons i.e. cold cash.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Hey, I found a spelling mistake in a Hemmingway novel. Clearly he was a crappy writer.

Yeah, Hemmingway couldn't even spell his own name right!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by JTK

When did Dave Vaughn basically become one of Amir's most obvious carbon copy puppets? I know he's favored HD-DVD all along, but gee whiz!

When David first started surfacing as a zealot recently, I checked his reviews.

I notice he has never reviewed anything on BD that wasn't a common title. Which I expect means he watches the HD DVD and then quickly checks over the BD to see if he can instantly see any differences.

In other words, he probably doesn't watch Blu-ray, and never has.

It's totally rediculous that he has been made an insider. Talk about AVS stacking the deck. There were only a few BD insiders there as it was, and they felt it necessary to add insiders with an axe to grind?

Pretty blindly obvious bias right there.

Gary

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Teazle

Yeah, Hemmingway couldn't even spell his own name right!

Ooops.

Hey, I never claimed *I* was a great writer.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

When David first started surfacing as a zealot recently, I checked his reviews.

I notice he has never reviewed anything on BD that wasn't a common title. Which I expect means he watches the HD DVD and then quickly checks over the BD to see if he can instantly see any differences.

In other words, he probably doesn't watch Blu-ray, and never has.

It's totally rediculous that he has been made an insider. Talk about AVS stacking the deck. There were only a few BD insiders there as it was, and they felt it necessary to add insiders with an axe to grind?

Pretty blindly obvious bias right there.

Gary

Indeed.

Sadly, this kind of MO is all too common out there.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Ooops.

Hey, I never claimed *I* was a great writer.

Didn't mean to pick on your typing there, you just set up that joke so perfectly I couldn't resist. OK, back to serious mode.