PlayStation 3: The HD-DVD Killer?

[Dave]

News Analysis
PlayStation 3: The HD-DVD Killer?
http://www.tvpredictions.com/ps3102006.htm


New game console will include a Blu-ray DVD player.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (October 20, 2006) -- The buzz is building.

Sony yesterday showcased its Play Station 3 video game console at a press party in San Francisco. The device, which will be launched in North America on November 17, left some journalists shaking their heads in awe.

Commenting on the eye-popping graphics in NHL 2K7, a pro hockey game, CNET's Daniel Terdiman wrote: "I focus on the stellar graphics, the realism of the ice, and I have to remind myself that this is not a televised hockey game."

PS3's graphics better be realistic -- with some analysts calling its price tag unrealistic ($500 or $600, depending upon the size of the hard drive.) But yesterday in San Francisco, the consensus seemed to be that Sony will have no trouble selling its new console.

"At the end of the day, Sony still has tremendous brand loyalty here and they'll sell millions," said P.J. McNealy, an American Technology Research analyst.

And that's great news for backers of Sony's new Blu-ray high-def DVD format. The PS3 will play Blu-ray discs; in fact, Sony is including a free Blu-ray copy of Will Ferrell's Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby with the first 400,000 units.



To date, Blu-ray -- and its format rival, HD-DVD (backed by Toshiba) -- has been a disaster. Remembering the Beta vs. VHS format war of the 1980s, consumers are hesitant to buy the new high-def DVD players because they fear they will pick the wrong format. No one wants to buy a player that could soon be obsolete.

But millions of gaming enthusiasts will want PS3 -- and many of them will give Blu-ray a try because they have nothing to lose. If they like the Blu-ray DVD picture, which can display 1080p high-def if connected to a 1080p HDTV, they will likely purchase or rent some Blu-ray discs.

Consequently, PS3 could suddenly give Blu-ray a big boost in its battle with HD-DVD.

While it's true that Microsoft will soon sell a HD-DVD adapter with its XBox 360 console, the high-def DVD player will require a separate purchase ($199). But PS3 comes with Blu-ray regardless of whether you want it or not.

PS3's hefty price tag might still give some shoppers pause. But if the analysts and journalists are right, the video game console could be the big hit of 2007 -- giving Blu-ray a huge advantage in this format war.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/ps3102006.htm

[Kenshiro]

Yes you could call it that.

[partridge]

However, and this is a tiny story really, but Play.com - a hugely popular online DVD retailer in the UK - report that pre-orders for HD-DVD's outweigh those of blu-ray by 3 to 1.

The article reckons it is likely down to the massive price difference on the hardware, with Toshiba's player going for £450 and the Samsung blu-ray player at £950

HD-DVD could be in for a good Christmas with another 5 months before the PS3 arrives on these shores. Overall I doubt it makes a scrap of difference, HD-DVD players will likely sell in hundreds of units while the PS3 will be in hundreds of thousands come March next year.

But it is very clear that price is a big factor. Why are blu-ray players so much more than HD-DVD players? Is it simply the technology involved?

[iceman]

Originally Posted by partridge

However, and this is a tiny story really, but Play.com - a hugely popular online DVD retailer in the UK - report that pre-orders for HD-DVD's outweigh those of blu-ray by 3 to 1.

Not 16:1? Sorry, just had to

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by partridge

HD-DVD could be in for a good Christmas with another 5 months before the PS3 arrives on these shores. Overall I doubt it makes a scrap of difference, HD-DVD players will likely sell in hundreds of units while the PS3 will be in hundreds of thousands come March next year.

But it is very clear that price is a big factor. Why are blu-ray players so much more than HD-DVD players? Is it simply the technology involved?

Your estimates are way off. The PS3 doesn't offer much over what a HD DVD enabled Xbox does.

Blu-Ray players are more expensive because its design eschews the common structure that we use for DVD. Thus we have a new disc structure and lens assembly that doesn't utilize existing hardware parameters. HD DVD can easily share a compact lens assembly that supports DVD easily and it's disc structure is common so pressing discs can happen on a retrofitted replicator.

As for the "OMG it's teh PS3 and it roooolez"

http://www.dvdfuture.com/features.php?id=2

The "Emotion Engine" also includes the ability to recreate complex physics environments, allowing 3D characters in games to have clothing and hair which can react to environmental variables like wind. Coupled with the central processing unit is a graphics chip capable of handling 75 million polygons per second. What this means is that the display to the screen will never be bogged down by the graphics chip, so the full 67 million polygons per second can be displayed without any slow down. To give an idea of the graphical prowess of their new system, Sony claims it is capable of rendering the movie "Toy Story" in real time.

To date I've NEVER seen a PS2 game that looked anywhere close to Toy Story. I'd take what these people say with a large grain of salt. We've heard it all before.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Your estimates are way off. The PS3 doesn't offer much over what a HD DVD enabled Xbox does.

Unless you count HDMI and SACD support and the massive library of films that will be exclusive to BR over the next 24 months and the PVR and the ability to save certain oft-played games in the HD and load them in seconds, and the web browsing.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

Unless you count HDMI and SACD support and the massive library of films that will be exclusive to BR over the next 24 months and the PVR and the ability to save certain oft-played games in the HD and load them in seconds, and the web browsing.

Does a person care if it's HDMI if they're viewing acceptable HD content on their TV?

SACD is dead

You actually believe that in 24 months we'll see the same studio exclusives?

Xbox 360 will offer the same. Remember its a Media Extender and the previous Xbox was hacked to do all kind of cool things.

My point isn't to bash but to point out the sever myopia that these boards create. The PS3 isn't without an equal.

At $500 I have options

Dedicated HD-A2 HD DVD player.
Xbox 360 with HD DVD addon
Playstation 3

Those options "will" expand on both sides in the future.

[phranctoast]

add ons never work. i must have posted this so many times. remember sega 32 x or sega cd. How about Sony's own HDD. Add ons suck. And the hd dvd add on for the 360 is probably one of the worst idea ever. It doesnt help with gameplay in the least. Just simply for a movie format that will be dead in two years time. If MS wanted to support the format rather then just acting as a thorn in the side of Sony, they would have built the hddvd drive into it. But no... MS had to have their system out first, and pissed on their fan base as a result. The last sentence was to stress how they do not support the original xbox anymore. Kind of lame if you ask me. the xbox came out a year and a half after the ps2, and the new xbox comes out a year before the next ps3. What does that give to the xboxs lifespan??? three years. LMAO. just great. I can upgrade my console at the same rate as my PC.

[dobyblue]

Does a person care if it's HDMI if they're viewing acceptable HD content on their TV?
I think they do; if they didn't HDMI switching in the receiver would be redundant wouldn't it? I think there's an obvious gap between what PS3 fans view as acceptable HD content and what 360 fans view as acceptable HD content.

SACD is dead
SACD is actually growing more and more amongst the popular acts who are putting out releases in SACD instead of just classical acts. (Sting, Depeche Mode, Elton John, John Mayer, Nine Inch Nails, Dire Straits, etc.)

You actually believe that in 24 months we'll see the same studio exclusives?
I think we'll see more.

[ay221]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

At $500 I have options

Dedicated HD-A2 HD DVD player.
Xbox 360 with HD DVD addon
Playstation 3

Strictly from the HD-DVD players on the list the HD-A2 is the best bet. With the addon not only can you not enjoy the better codecs but any studio can decide to turn on the ICT bit at any time.

[Chris Beveridge]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

To date I've NEVER seen a PS2 game that looked anywhere close to Toy Story. I'd take what these people say with a large grain of salt. We've heard it all before.

Actually, the claim has been misconstrued over the years, like the Al Gore inventing the internet claim, and it's something that MS actually said as well. This was covered in detail during one of the AVS threads as someone always seems to bring it up.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by phranctoast

add ons never work. i must have posted this so many times. remember sega 32 x or sega cd. How about Sony's own HDD. Add ons suck. And the hd dvd add on for the 360 is probably one of the worst idea ever. It doesnt help with gameplay in the least. Just simply for a movie format that will be dead in two years time. If MS wanted to support the format rather then just acting as a thorn in the side of Sony, they would have built the hddvd drive into it. But no... MS had to have their system out first, and pissed on their fan base as a result. The last sentence was to stress how they do not support the original xbox anymore. Kind of lame if you ask me. the xbox came out a year and a half after the ps2, and the new xbox comes out a year before the next ps3. What does that give to the xboxs lifespan??? three years. LMAO. just great. I can upgrade my console at the same rate as my PC.

I guess that's why the Add on is currently the #1 item on Amazon

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...848034-9004930

Chris I wouldn't be surprised but there was a LOT of hype around the PS2. I take what eRag writers say with a grain of salt.

The PS3 will be good but gameplay isn't about graphics it's about talent

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The PS3 isn't without an equal.

At $500 I have options

Dedicated HD-A2 HD DVD player.
Xbox 360 with HD DVD addon
Playstation 3

Those options "will" expand on both sides in the future.

The PS3 IS without an equal.

Dedicated HD-A2 HD-DVD player - is not 1080p, cannot stream videos and music to your PSP (and vice versa), doesn't have a hard drive for video/audio storage, can not send uncompressed PCM, not a high end gaming system, no free ADVANCED online service, no web browser, and does not have HDMI 1.3 for future receivers to decode the codecs internally.

Xbox 360 with HD-DVD addon - NO TRUE 1080p (hardware - buffer restriction), NO hard drive, No music or video (no hard drive), No ADVANCED online service, NO HDMI, NO advanced audio codecs (DD TrueHD, DTS HD Master Lossless, etc.), NO web browser, and can't play games over 9GB in space (that means smaller games, less levels, less functions, poorer graphics and sound).

PS3 - has all those things the others are missing


Now, which purchase gives you more for your money? Be honest!

[partridge]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Your estimates are way off.

"My" estimates?

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/10...more_on_hddvd/

I tend to use facts. You seem to prefer opinion.

I've read a few of your posts recently and they have a very heavy anti PS3 slant. That's fine, it's an open forum, but back up what you say with links, etc, or the rest of us will quickly ignore and dismiss your posts.

Opinion isn't fact.

I've yet to see a console add-on that became a must have item. My opinion is that there is no chance of the hd-dvd add on posing any kind of threat to the PS3.

Oh, and that tired old "toy story" tale?

"One of the basic premises of the Xbox is to put the power in the hands of the artist," Blackley said, which is why Xbox developers "are achieving a level of visual detail you really get in 'Toy Story.'"

Microsoft said it about the Xbox:
http://netscape.com.com/Microsoft+go..._3-250632.html

Hmm, and the 360 as a media extender? So I have to have my PC on just to watch my movies, photos, listen to music, etc? Why not have it in one single unit? Like, the PS3?

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I guess that's why the Add on is currently the #1 item on Amazon

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...848034-9004930

Chris I wouldn't be surprised but there was a LOT of hype around the PS2. I take what eRag writers say with a grain of salt.

The PS3 will be good but gameplay isn't about graphics it's about talent

You can see if that really means anything by what's number 2. Number 2 is "The Sims 2 Pet Expansion Pack"! That says it all! LMAO

My guess would be somewhere in the thousands. LOL

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Ascended_Saiyan

PS3 - has all those things the others are missing


Now, which purchase gives you more for your money? Be honest!

The PS3

Originally Posted by partridge

I've read a few of your posts recently and they have a very heavy anti PS3 slant. That's fine, it's an open forum, but back up what you say with links, etc, or the rest of us will quickly ignore and dismiss your posts.

I think the PS3 is great. Though I have my doubts that it'll prove to be a significant impact for Blu-ray above and beyond what a person gets with an Xbox 360 with HD DVD.

Originally Posted by partridge

I've yet to see a console add-on that became a must have item. My opinion is that there is no chance of the hd-dvd add on posing any kind of threat to the PS3.

You're totally right. By xmas 2007 there will be an Xbox360 HD with an integrated HD DVD drive. Games won't come on it but it'll be the perfect Media Centre Extender.

Originally Posted by partridge

Hmm, and the 360 as a media extender? So I have to have my PC on just to watch my movies, photos, listen to music, etc? Why not have it in one single unit? Like, the PS3?

Because Microsoft does software eons better than Sony.

[shido]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

The PS3



I think the PS3 is great. Though I have my doubts that it'll prove to be a significant impact for Blu-ray above and beyond what a person gets with an Xbox 360 with HD DVD.



You're totally right. By xmas 2007 there will be an Xbox360 HD with an integrated HD DVD drive. Games won't come on it but it'll be the perfect Media Centre Extender.



Because Microsoft does software eons better than Sony.

The PS3 will do more for Blu-ray than the Xbox 360 will do for HD-DVD because of the fact that Blu-ray is already integrated with in the unit. Sure, it was a gamble for Sony to do it this way in terms of price, but it opens up Blu-ray to people who normally wouldn't have been interested. I'm fairly certain that all those preorders for the HD-DVD add-on on the 360 are being done by people who already have an interest in the format - the average "joe sixpack" 360 owner probably doesn't even know what it is. What then, would motivate him to go out and drop $200 for an add-on he doesn't even know he wants?

Also, I haven't seen any confirmed reports of a 360 coming out with an integrated HD-DVD drive. And as Microsoft currently has no plans to drop the price of the regular 360 in the near future, a 360 with an HD-DVD drive integrated would be pretty expensive. In regards to the 360 being a good Media Center Extender, I just have to laugh. The current implementation of the Media Center on the 360 is a joke. You can't copy video files directly to the 360, can't rip music to the 360 in any format besides WMA. Using the extender to play content from a PC is useless - it won't let you play anything other than WMV and MPEG1/2. Plus, the harddrive on the 360 is proprietary - meaning we won't see bigger harddrives until Microsoft releases one. So even if Microsoft did allow us to store videos on the 360s harddrive, it wouldn't matter because we're stuck with only 13gb of useable space anyway. Honestly, I was expecting so much more from the 360 in terms of media functions, but I was wrong. This is why I still use my old softmodded Xbox1 to this day.

But the PS3 has the potential to change everything. For one thing, the harddrive is a standard S-ATA harddrive - meaning I can just go to any computer store and buy as big of a harddrive as I want. I can rip cds in many formats, including MP3 and AAC. And while it only allows mp4 and mpg extensions, videos can be placed on the harddrive and streamed to other devices, such as the PSP. But that's not really what I'm excited about. The fact that there will be a full fledged version of Linux specifically made for the PS3 is where everything is at. Using Linux, I can truly make my PS3 into my own "Media Center". With Linux, restrictions on what types of media I can or can't play will disappear. That's the kind of freedom I want, and right now I don't see Microsoft adding anything that will come close to rivaling that.

[partridge]

And music can be ripped to PS3 at 352k quality, rather than typical 128k mp3.

While I would agree that MS are better at software (they should be, it's what they do) you can't argue with the volume of security issues their software contains, which is why the Xbox was so hackable.

But if MS are good at software, then I'd say Sony know a thing or two about hardware, and the build quality of the PS3 has already been praised by gamer sites that have a console. The XMB menu system is ridiculously easy to use.

Feature for feature, pound for pound, the PS3 represents a better investment, and I prefer the concept of a single, complete unit, than the DIY approach that MS have taken with the X360.

MS continue to deny that a 360 with built in HD-DVD will be released, and they'd be foolish to release one until 2008 so that user interest in the add on can be judged over the coming year.

I don't come here to throw scorn at the 360, and I can only speak for myself, but I've weighed up both consoles, their abilities and - most importantly - my needs, and the PS3 comes out on top. For me, the PlayStation3 is the only console worth buying, anything else would be a compromise.

I can't find the link I'm afraid, but Microsoft's Peter Moore reckons the unit numbers for the HD-DVD add on will be low due the HD movie market being in its infancy. They are sensibly taking a "see what happens" approach, they can always ditch it if it comes to nothing.

[Blackraven]

Originally Posted by phranctoast

add ons never work.

QFT

I mean, why the bloody hell would I want an external add-on device?!?!?

Release the internal HD-DVD Drive version ASAP.

I don't even want to ponder why MS would charge money to use their online service while Sony and Nintendo plan to offer theirs for free.

With that said, I hope this signals a threat for MS to SLASH their XBL Gold service prices. 50% off maybe

[Kenshiro]

An integrated drive is what inherently makes the PS3 a more sound choice then a 360/Add-on combo. The track record for add-on devices is laughable at best and they are what caused gamers to lose faith in SEGA. And then there's the issue of audio, the add-on will not be able to output any of the new codecs via optical output, so you are not getting next gen audio. The PS3 meanwhile has the latest and greatest HDMI 1.3 so its future proof for Audio and Video. And then there is the issue of price. At $599 for a 360/HD DVD combo you could get a 60Gig PS3. And the PS3 is newer and has a more advanced CPU, has true 1080p output(no upscaling software patch necessary), 40 more Gig then the Premium 360, built in wifi, Linux, plays media off the HDD, HDMI output, PS exclusive games(MGS, Devil May cry, Tekken, Virtua Fighter, Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo to name a few), Blu Ray exclusive movies.... its not really debatable. The only reason to go 360/HD DVD is if you are a biased Sony hater.