Analysts: 16.5 millions PS3 to be sold by March 2008

[mcy_999]

http://www.n4g.com/ps3/News-72210.aspx

If this number can be achieved, that means the total number of BD players will be way above 17 millions along with standalone BD players. Universal Studio will become format neutral at no time.

[ikbradley]

That number is way out of line. I love the PS3, but there is no serious AAA staple coming this year. Drakes Fortune, Heavenly Sword and Assassin's Creed are not system sellers. MGS4, GTA IV, FFXIII, Gran Turismo and Little Big Planet are the heavy hitters.

5 million units will be sold between November and March. In late 2008 the PS3will surpass the 360 at 20 million and possibly in late 2009, the Wii at least in software sales. The Wii just has god awful attach rates.... Kid: "Hey Grandma, did you know you can get other game discs for this machine?".... Grandma "What is a disc... I like tennis..."

[GamingPhantom]

don't hold your breath about Universal going neutral. they are really excited about buying product capability from a HD-DVD. since this new feature will premiere in the evan almighty movie, the hope of the end of the war by january '08 looks bleak

http://dvd.ign.com/articles/824/824654p1.html

[Xerious]

Originally Posted by GamingPhantom

don't hold your breath about Universal going neutral. they are really excited about buying product capability from a HD-DVD. since this new feature will premiere in the evan almighty movie, the hope of the end of the war by january '08 looks bleak

http://dvd.ign.com/articles/824/824654p1.html

when they see it flop, we'll see how excited they are.

[ikbradley]

Shopping through movies. Great... I know people love to see 20 minutes of trailers, and now they get the pleasure of purchasing crap from crap movies. This is going to go over like a lead balloon.

People don't like marketing crap. Plain and simple. Universal is going to spend a fortune on enabling the storefronts and see absolutely no profit. The reason is simple: uninformed don't buy except from B&M and the informed buy from places that sell stuff much cheaper.

Worst. Idea. Evar.

Universal is going to run into so many brick walls that every person involved with HD-DVD in that studio is going to get painted with a scarlet letter.

[blitz6speed]

Originally Posted by GamingPhantom

don't hold your breath about Universal going neutral. they are really excited about buying product capability from a HD-DVD. since this new feature will premiere in the evan almighty movie, the hope of the end of the war by january '08 looks bleak

http://dvd.ign.com/articles/824/824654p1.html

Uni is going to be a friend to Blu real soon. They will use BD 2.0 features for the same crap, this is basically a test run for getting their setup tested and working.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by ikbradley

That number is way out of line. I love the PS3, but there is no serious AAA staple coming this year. Drakes Fortune, Heavenly Sword and Assassin's Creed are not system sellers. MGS4, GTA IV, FFXIII, Gran Turismo and Little Big Planet are the heavy hitters.

5 million units will be sold between November and March. In late 2008 the PS3will surpass the 360 at 20 million and possibly in late 2009, the Wii at least in software sales. The Wii just has god awful attach rates.... Kid: "Hey Grandma, did you know you can get other game discs for this machine?".... Grandma "What is a disc... I like tennis..."

If Sony announces their rumored 40gig model at $399 with Spidey 3 pack-in I think sales may reach the estimates stated in the article.

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by Slapper

If Sony announces their rumored 40gig model at $399 with Spidey 3 pack-in I think sales may reach the estimates stated in the article.

I think the translation of this article was messed up and they added 5 to the 11 million instead of the 11 being the expected March 2008 number.

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by ikbradley

That number is way out of line. I love the PS3, but there is no serious AAA staple coming this year. Drakes Fortune, Heavenly Sword and Assassin's Creed are not system sellers. MGS4, GTA IV, FFXIII, Gran Turismo and Little Big Planet are the heavy hitters.

5 million units will be sold between November and March. In late 2008 the PS3will surpass the 360 at 20 million and possibly in late 2009, the Wii at least in software sales. The Wii just has god awful attach rates.... Kid: "Hey Grandma, did you know you can get other game discs for this machine?".... Grandma "What is a disc... I like tennis..."

Im tired of people saying "not system sellers" for games that havent even been released yet, and especially those that are entirely new franchises (Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, Assassins Creed)

Are you a psychic? How do you know Uncharted and Assasins Creed wont blow people away? Or even Folklore for that matter.

I agree that the currently established franchises wont have any releases until 08, which is a bit of a letdown, but there are still many many games that are worth owning this holiday season.

Oh but I agree about wii attach rates. considering 90% of wii games are party/mini-games or gimmick games like pool or brunswick bowling. I own a wii, and the only 2 games I give a damn about are zelda and the NEW resident evil: umbrella chronicles.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by ikbradley

That number is way out of line. I love the PS3, but there is no serious AAA staple coming this year. Drakes Fortune, Heavenly Sword and Assassin's Creed are not system sellers. MGS4, GTA IV, FFXIII, Gran Turismo and Little Big Planet are the heavy hitters.

5 million units will be sold between November and March. In late 2008 the PS3will surpass the 360 at 20 million and possibly in late 2009, the Wii at least in software sales. The Wii just has god awful attach rates.... Kid: "Hey Grandma, did you know you can get other game discs for this machine?".... Grandma "What is a disc... I like tennis..."

You should just look at how one game can turn a format around in Japan. Look at the PSP recently with Crisis Core (final fantasy). Basically in a couple weeks it's sold half a million units of the new PSP because of it. It's now outselling the DS for the first time every week.

That's what system selling games can do for you. Imagine when they release MGS4 and FF13 in Japan.....PS3 consoles will sell out. Just like X360 sales exploded (literally and figuratively) when Gears of War released, so will PS3 when a similar must have title is released. I can say MGS4, Little Big Planet, Gran Tursimo (rumored), and possibly Killzone 2 releasing 1st qtr next year could sale that many PS3's now that it's dropped to acceptable costs to consumers. People in the US and Japan are just waiting for a title to make them drop their PS2 (and perhaps their broken X360)

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by ps3andlovinit

I think the translation of this article was messed up and they added 5 to the 11 million instead of the 11 being the expected March 2008 number.

I think they are talking about the total number of units shipped to retailers worldwide by March 2008.

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by ikbradley

Shopping through movies. Great... I know people love to see 20 minutes of trailers, and now they get the pleasure of purchasing crap from crap movies. This is going to go over like a lead balloon.

People don't like marketing crap. Plain and simple. Universal is going to spend a fortune on enabling the storefronts and see absolutely no profit. The reason is simple: uninformed don't buy except from B&M and the informed buy from places that sell stuff much cheaper.

Worst. Idea. Evar.

Universal is going to run into so many brick walls that every person involved with HD-DVD in that studio is going to get painted with a scarlet letter.

Agreed 100%. When people think "special features" they dont expect to be directed to some crappy website where they can purchase over-prived memorabilia. Besides they're forgetting the simple truth that most people dont give a crap about special features besides maybe a short "making of" or "deleted scenes" and even those hardly ever get watched.

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

You should just look at how one game can turn a format around

There is nothing to be "turned" around...your falling into the trap.

The console was introduced at twice the price of the PS2 with substantially more competition and will still 100 million units when it's all said and done.

[ikbradley]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

You should just look at how one game can turn a format around in Japan. Look at the PSP recently with Crisis Core (final fantasy). Basically in a couple weeks it's sold half a million units of the new PSP because of it. It's now outselling the DS for the first time every week.

That's what system selling games can do for you. Imagine when they release MGS4 and FF13 in Japan.....PS3 consoles will sell out. Just like X360 sales exploded (literally and figuratively) when Gears of War released, so will PS3 when a similar must have title is released. I can say MGS4, Little Big Planet, Gran Tursimo (rumored), and possibly Killzone 2 releasing 1st qtr next year could sale that many PS3's now that it's dropped to acceptable costs to consumers. People in the US and Japan are just waiting for a title to make them drop their PS2 (and perhaps their broken X360)

Look, don't get me wrong. I hope you are right. However, Gears of War came out with no competition. It became a system seller because it was the only non-POS in the market.

Usually a system seller is attached to branding and loyalty. There are very few system sellers that are not sequels. All of the PS2 Sony staples like MGS, FF, GT, DMC, GTA IV, etc., were sequels. Same with Wii. The 360 is the only outlier, but this is because it only had Halo, and surprise, Halo will be the system seller, not Bioshock or Mass Effect.

If Drake's Fortune or Assassin's Creed manage to push more than a million console purchases, that's fantastic, but there has not been nearly enough momentum builtup to indicate that this is likely to happen.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed because the PS3 is rightfully the best console in the market, and far too many people have ignored it, especially in the U.S..

[Brandon B]

Well, I don't know about anyone else, but a full 50% of the motivation for me to buy a PS3 was to play Ratchet and Clank V. Blu-ray being the rest. And I would guess the number of hours playing that one game will be equal to the number of hours I will spend watching BD on it for at least the first 6 months I have the game.

BB

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by ikbradley

Look, don't get me wrong. I hope you are right. However, Gears of War came out with no competition. It became a system seller because it was the only non-POS in the market.

Usually a system seller is attached to branding and loyalty. There are very few system sellers that are not sequels. All of the PS2 Sony staples like MGS, FF, GT, DMC, GTA IV, etc., were sequels. Same with Wii. The 360 is the only outlier, but this is because it only had Halo, and surprise, Halo will be the system seller, not Bioshock or Mass Effect.

If Drake's Fortune or Assassin's Creed manage to push more than a million console purchases, that's fantastic, but there has not been nearly enough momentum builtup to indicate that this is likely to happen.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed because the PS3 is rightfully the best console in the market, and far too many people have ignored it, especially in the U.S..

I'm sorry, I wasn't suggesting Drakes or Assassins Creed would be a system seller, I'm saying NEXT YEAR those games I listed will sale the PS3. Of course assuming they all release before the end of March. If they can, they will sell a ton of consoles.

Honestly the 07 lineup for PS3 took way too many hits to be competitive with X360's lineup. First MGS4 was pushed to March 08, then GTA4 was pushed to April 08, and now UT3 has been pushed to next year. All of those are system selling games I believe. Ratchet and Clank could be one of the best games for the PS3 for 07 but I doubt it will create a lot of buzz. Haze does have the potential IMO, don't count that out.