Predictions - Blu-ray wins war late January 2010 - Page 2 - Blu-ray Forum

bhampton · 10-19-2007, 11:55 AM

Man,

Some of these notions are way too long. I want it over now. I hope a week from now we get the news that HD DUD lost the sales week even with the $150 million transformers deal. That would be a crush to many of the HD DUD-ers.

I hope that anyone buying into this type of thing can tell at least by Jan that one format won and the other one while still available lost. I'm going to start playing the lotto and all my winnings will go to big billboards letting people know HD DUD lost. Because,.. it did you know just some of the HD DUD faithful are much to dumb to realize it.

-Brian

david2189 · 10-19-2007, 11:55 AM

if it keeps going like it is in all the other countries (not the US) i think end of next year blu will win

mystiksuicide · 10-19-2007, 12:41 PM

This is speculation but based on facts at what happened at a BB store this past tuesday. (10-16-07) The BB store had anticipated a huge turn out when the store opened and that Transformers would sell quickly(there was a huge line and the sales where rapid). The night before a stack of Toshibas A30 had been brought down and placed in the media dept next to the transformers hd dvd.

At the end of the shift 4pm not a single Toshiba had been sold but 2 Sony's 1 Samsung and the new Sharp blu had been sold. (These numbers are not the stores numbers of blu's sold just what my b/f sold during his shift at Magnolia.)

But what was a certain was that all the toshiba boxes that had been brought down where up stocked again with out being sold. What's going to determine who wins this format war is not the movies sold but what format machine has sold the most and at the moment Toshibas are just not selling.

During the holidays which will be crucial the consumer is going to see how many companies sell blu machines and how many titles ( 8 blu shelves as opposed to 2 for hd dvd) are dedicated to each format. If things don't change and perception is huge the average consumer is going to see blu every where.

Please tell me where my analysis is wrong

TruBlu2 · 10-19-2007, 12:55 PM

It is about over as of NOW, technically speaking. in 08 it will be official. this doesn't included and doesn't need to included paramount for the war to be essentially over.

2010 comes from hddud's propaganda mill.

Enjoy Life in Blu

SS316SRV · 10-19-2007, 01:13 PM

I don't care if HD DVD survives. I just want some of the movies that are on HD DVD. I want to be able to watch the movies I want on whatever format I want. I know that this is more likely to happen with a definitive victory for blu and a vanishing of HD DVD.

amason · 10-19-2007, 01:16 PM

I would be very surprised if HDDVD lives past next year. This holiday season is going to put a lot of nails in the coffin for HDDVD.

ikbradley · 10-19-2007, 01:34 PM

January 2009.

BluOgre · 10-19-2007, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sphdle1

Anyone have a prediction on this war?

My prediction is based on the timing of Paramount getting out of their pay off deal, and starting to release BDs like mad, in a year and a half's time. By then I think the ratio will be over 3:1 in favor of Blu, at least in North America, but close to 10:1 in Europe and other moreso in Japan.
After the Christmas season of 2009, the ratio will go past 4:1, Universal will start making both, and by late January, all other studios will go exclusively BD, as the market share of high definition will have increased 10 fold from what it is now, so there will be more money at stake for studios in terms of Profit & Loss.

Am I way off, or just slightly? What's your prediction on the ending of the war?

You are either way off or this format will die a slow death. There is no way consumers will have the attention span that lasts past 09. Heck I honestly feels if it's not wraped up next year it's getting to that point customers will lose intrest. It's one reason why I think Warner is going to exclusive with Bluray early next year and why I feel Universal is going to at the very least go format neutral. At the end of next year if Universal isn't exclusive with Bluray (which leaves only Paramount releasing HD) the format is going to be seriously hurt.

Customers are already confused and I'm only talking from a rentailers point of view. When my managers are having a hard time grasping what is going on (no matter how much I try to explain them) the customers are no doubt frustrated and very wary about getting into this new format with it being so confusing. Either Warner and Universal mans up and saves the highdef format or it dies a slow death over the next 3 years.

Branden · 10-19-2007, 01:53 PM

i expect to see universal to go neutral next year and warner start to phase out hd-dvd next year. unless the weak-minded paramount gets another bribe, they should be neutral again january 2009 taking away hd-dvd's last reason to exist. but because hd-dvd will have already established a customer base large enough to not ignore, it will still carry on as an easily accessible format for some time.

tru2blu707 · 10-19-2007, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SS316SRV

I don't care if HD DVD survives. I just want some of the movies that are on HD DVD. I want to be able to watch the movies I want on whatever format I want. I know that this is more likely to happen with a definitive victory for blu and a vanishing of HD DVD.

This should NOT be the mindset of everyone on this forum.... HD DVD is a far inferior format to blu ray. and as a consumer we should get THE best movie experience...and the only way that can happen is with blu ray. you can see already that HD DVD has hit a wall with transformers not having TrueHD audio because of capacity issue. for all that is holy

we must support the SUPERIOR format to get the BEST in home theatre experience

gerardfma · 10-19-2007, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sphdle1

By then I think the ratio will be over 3:1 in favor of Blu, at least in North America, but close to 10:1 in Europe and other moreso in Japan.

While I quite agree for NA, where did you get such figures for Europe? We have very detailed figures per western eruropean countries and manufacturers of BD and HD-DVD players, and they are certainly not showing a 10:1 ratio :-(

CptGreedle · 10-19-2007, 02:21 PM

I think that that might be too long. I predict 2009 for sure. After a second holiday season with even stronger BD presence, I don't think HD-DVD will last long at all.
However they had pulled dirty tricks before, and they expect them to continue the trend next year. It is possible they will come up with something to keep them going longer. It may be that they will find a way to stay around another year, but by then, the sales between BD and HD-DVD will have an even greater gap and Paramount's deal will be officially over. So If not 2009, the very latest possible would be 1Q 2010 for sure.
But I hope that Paramount will see the light and go back early, sometime next year, and WB decides to go exclusive too. It is possible Universal might as well. It really comes down to appealing to the studios. If all 3 somehow went neutral or Blu, the war would be officially over as all of the great studios will have started supporting Blu-ray.

Sonny · 10-19-2007, 02:30 PM

To the OP Jan 2010

Damn if it last's that long were up shit's creek with this hole thing , it has to be over by Jan 2009 at the latest only because of Dumn Ass Paracrap, but hopefully alot sooner than that!

glenn22 · 10-19-2007, 02:43 PM

I think it really depends on a person's interpretation of "winning the war". I think this whole thing could last until 2010, but I think it would be essentially over a long time before that. It would be on life support for a good year before everyone finally gives up on it.

maximiza · 10-19-2007, 02:48 PM

January 18th 2008 at 4:31 PM @ 23 seconds,, and not a second more.

CptGreedle · 10-19-2007, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maximiza

January 18th 2008 at 4:31 PM @ 23 seconds,, and not a second more.

Start a countdown somewhere...

glenn22 · 10-19-2007, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

Start a countdown somewhere...

lol, someone should start an official live "countdown to HD-DVDs death" clock.

haushausman · 10-19-2007, 02:57 PM

I think after this Christmas this "war" will be no more than a small skirmish here in the U.S. In every other country this battle seems to be already winding down and Blu-Ray has emerged as a clear victor.

Retail stores are dropping HD-DVD left and right. This war cannot continue based on Internet sales. Shelf space is expensive and if they aren't moving then they're gone.

The exclusives we have in the hole are sick. Gonna be huge under the tree. And if people want the movies they gotta get the player (obviously). We have a hole box of nails for HD-DUD's coffin (DH4, Spider-man 3, Superbad, you know the rest...)

Expect to see some major after X-mas clearance sales with HD-DVD.

haushausman · 10-19-2007, 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by glenn22

lol, someone should start an official live "countdown to HD-DVDs death" clock.

Set it to expire December 26th. Everyone who mistakingly got HD-DVD for X-mas will run out and return their movies and player for Blu-Ray just to see Spider-man and all the other awesome exclusives.

ckenisell · 10-19-2007, 03:38 PM

I have said for a couple of years now that Jan. 08' will be the end of the war. Then, Paramount went off and screwed the pooch. However, I really do feel like Universal will be announcing Blu-Ray support in Jan. '08, Warner will become Blu-Ray exclusive in Q1 '08 and Paramount will be forced to get out of their 18-month contract with HD-DVD early.

So, I'll say late Q2 or early Q3 of '08. This will be perfectly timed to occur just a couple of months after the first BD-Live titles make it to market.

This will all be determined by Blu-Ray's Q4 '07 results, so get out there and BUY Blu-Ray movies.

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10-19-2007, 11:55 AM	#21
bhampton Blu-ray Count Member since:Aug 2007 4K collection:981 Blu-ray collection:2537 DVD collection:67 Blu-ray reviews: 6 Trading Score:18	Man, Some of these notions are way too long. I want it over now. I hope a week from now we get the news that HD DUD lost the sales week even with the $150 million transformers deal. That would be a crush to many of the HD DUD-ers. I hope that anyone buying into this type of thing can tell at least by Jan that one format won and the other one while still available lost. I'm going to start playing the lotto and all my winnings will go to big billboards letting people know HD DUD lost. Because,.. it did you know just some of the HD DUD faithful are much to dumb to realize it. -Brian

10-19-2007, 11:55 AM	#22
david2189 Expert Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:London, UK Blu-ray collection:183	if it keeps going like it is in all the other countries (not the US) i think end of next year blu will win

10-19-2007, 12:41 PM	#23
mystiksuicide Blu-ray Guru Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Miami Blu-ray collection:305 Blu-ray reviews:27	This is speculation but based on facts at what happened at a BB store this past tuesday. (10-16-07) The BB store had anticipated a huge turn out when the store opened and that Transformers would sell quickly(there was a huge line and the sales where rapid). The night before a stack of Toshibas A30 had been brought down and placed in the media dept next to the transformers hd dvd. At the end of the shift 4pm not a single Toshiba had been sold but 2 Sony's 1 Samsung and the new Sharp blu had been sold. (These numbers are not the stores numbers of blu's sold just what my b/f sold during his shift at Magnolia.) But what was a certain was that all the toshiba boxes that had been brought down where up stocked again with out being sold. What's going to determine who wins this format war is not the movies sold but what format machine has sold the most and at the moment Toshibas are just not selling. During the holidays which will be crucial the consumer is going to see how many companies sell blu machines and how many titles ( 8 blu shelves as opposed to 2 for hd dvd) are dedicated to each format. If things don't change and perception is huge the average consumer is going to see blu every where. Please tell me where my analysis is wrong

10-19-2007, 12:55 PM	#24
TruBlu2 Senior Member Member since:Aug 2007 Blu-ray reviews:1	It is about over as of NOW, technically speaking. in 08 it will be official. this doesn't included and doesn't need to included paramount for the war to be essentially over. 2010 comes from hddud's propaganda mill. Enjoy Life in Blu

10-19-2007, 01:13 PM	#25
SS316SRV Blu-ray Guru Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Appleton, WI Blu-ray collection:74	I don't care if HD DVD survives. I just want some of the movies that are on HD DVD. I want to be able to watch the movies I want on whatever format I want. I know that this is more likely to happen with a definitive victory for blu and a vanishing of HD DVD.

10-19-2007, 01:16 PM	#26
amason Active Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:MA 4K collection:40 Blu-ray collection:511 DVD collection:86 Blu-ray reviews:43	I would be very surprised if HDDVD lives past next year. This holiday season is going to put a lot of nails in the coffin for HDDVD.

10-19-2007, 01:34 PM	#27
ikbradley Senior Member Member since:Aug 2007	January 2009.

10-19-2007, 01:53 PM	#29
Branden Senior Member Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Calgary, Alberta 4K collection:28 Blu-ray collection:558	i expect to see universal to go neutral next year and warner start to phase out hd-dvd next year. unless the weak-minded paramount gets another bribe, they should be neutral again january 2009 taking away hd-dvd's last reason to exist. but because hd-dvd will have already established a customer base large enough to not ignore, it will still carry on as an easily accessible format for some time.

10-19-2007, 02:21 PM	#32
CptGreedle Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Sworn super-hero now services Atlanta (and suburbs). Blu-ray collection:128 Blu-ray reviews:5	I think that that might be too long. I predict 2009 for sure. After a second holiday season with even stronger BD presence, I don't think HD-DVD will last long at all. However they had pulled dirty tricks before, and they expect them to continue the trend next year. It is possible they will come up with something to keep them going longer. It may be that they will find a way to stay around another year, but by then, the sales between BD and HD-DVD will have an even greater gap and Paramount's deal will be officially over. So If not 2009, the very latest possible would be 1Q 2010 for sure. But I hope that Paramount will see the light and go back early, sometime next year, and WB decides to go exclusive too. It is possible Universal might as well. It really comes down to appealing to the studios. If all 3 somehow went neutral or Blu, the war would be officially over as all of the great studios will have started supporting Blu-ray.

10-19-2007, 02:30 PM	#33
Sonny Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Aug 2007 Home Theater Gallery:8 Blu-ray reviews:6 Trading Score:1	To the OP Jan 2010 Damn if it last's that long were up shit's creek with this hole thing , it has to be over by Jan 2009 at the latest only because of Dumn Ass Paracrap, but hopefully alot sooner than that!

10-19-2007, 02:43 PM	#34
glenn22 Power Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Vancouver, Canada	I think it really depends on a person's interpretation of "winning the war". I think this whole thing could last until 2010, but I think it would be essentially over a long time before that. It would be on life support for a good year before everyone finally gives up on it.

10-19-2007, 02:48 PM	#35
maximiza Active Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Queens Village, NYC	January 18th 2008 at 4:31 PM @ 23 seconds,, and not a second more.

10-19-2007, 02:57 PM	#38
haushausman Special Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:Chicago Home Theater Gallery:12 Blu-ray collection:343 Blu-ray reviews: 5	I think after this Christmas this "war" will be no more than a small skirmish here in the U.S. In every other country this battle seems to be already winding down and Blu-Ray has emerged as a clear victor. Retail stores are dropping HD-DVD left and right. This war cannot continue based on Internet sales. Shelf space is expensive and if they aren't moving then they're gone. The exclusives we have in the hole are sick. Gonna be huge under the tree. And if people want the movies they gotta get the player (obviously). We have a hole box of nails for HD-DUD's coffin (DH4, Spider-man 3, Superbad, you know the rest...) Expect to see some major after X-mas clearance sales with HD-DVD.

10-19-2007, 03:38 PM	#40
ckenisell Blu-ray Samurai Top contributor Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Round Rock, TX Blu-ray collection:368 Blu-ray reviews:3	I have said for a couple of years now that Jan. 08' will be the end of the war. Then, Paramount went off and screwed the pooch. However, I really do feel like Universal will be announcing Blu-Ray support in Jan. '08, Warner will become Blu-Ray exclusive in Q1 '08 and Paramount will be forced to get out of their 18-month contract with HD-DVD early. So, I'll say late Q2 or early Q3 of '08. This will be perfectly timed to occur just a couple of months after the first BD-Live titles make it to market. This will all be determined by Blu-Ray's Q4 '07 results, so get out there and BUY Blu-Ray movies.

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