81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by eat_me_cool

I suspect not, they are merely a different interpretation of MaxPowers viewpoint. However, his personal opinions are just that and demonstrate the problem with 2nd hand information. The fact is WB will do what they want when they want to do it and will use their own benchmarks to guide them.

They own patents on Blu-ray and HD-DVD. The significance of this on the format war is far more important than you may think. Look at this

http://dvddemystified.com/dvdfaq.html#6.1

DVD player royalties are about $14 per player. That means if you are a manufacturer of one of the 130million DVD players sold last year, your $80 product made $14 for the patent holders and maybe $6 for you...

Think how the CE manufacturers will look at HD-DVD and Blu-ray market from that perspective.

very good point with how much royalty owners make and how wb has patents for both. now something both max and al0137 agreed on is that warner doesn't think 2 formats is a solution. so in order to really cash in on those royalties they are going to need to make a choice. now what choice do you think they will make in order to make the big bucks of the royalties. tying the market up and being on the losing side of thigns by having 3 (universal, paramount, wb) studios vs. 5 (disney, sony, fox, mgm, lionsgate) studios or letting the market thrive and making it a solid 6 (disney, wb, sony, fox, mgm, lionsgate) vs. 2 studios (uni, paramount) and being on the leading side.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by SDG

al0137, get with the MOD's here and verify your/your friends insider status. Should be VERY EASY.

Well I can't imagine it's that easy. I mean, I know people who work in those positions and quite frankly, having a website call to make sure the insider information they are passing along is accurate would be a problem, since people like him shouldn't be sharing that info to begin with.

So...more than likely not, since people in that type of position usually have no permission to be an insider. I mean, the things I could tell you! I don't though, since my job would not look kindly on me sharing the information I have access to.

Granted, that's not to say he's right. There's so much bad information, you have to take everything with a grain of salt. Even good information, from reliable sources can go south.

[C6 Z06]

[QUOTE=mystiksuicide;445365]

Originally Posted by Sonny

The only reason I might stop posting on this site is because we have bunch pansies. You win 51 weeks in a row and yet the sky is falling. I must say I admire HD DVD followers a lot more. They never win a week but yet they're optimistic about the future (they're insane) but yet optomistic

Optimistic, or just to dumb to know the difference!!

[eat_me_cool]

Originally Posted by SpikesBluBlooded

{CLAP}{CLAP}{CLAP}

Wow, I couldn't have put it any better myself! Kudos to you my friend, well put!

Well I hope the panicking pansies get the message.

Lisen to what Pentonman, Kjack, MaxPower say about BD.

Blu-ray is a system.

Blu-ray an infrastructure.

Blu-ray is a consortium.

Sales are looked at from an eagle's viewpoint. The industry is looking at the long term. One weeks sales figures, a $99 end of line sale, a $40 price difference in players a studio release being delayed or even Paramount going exclusive. Long term ...it will make no difference.

Paramount know they can switch to Blu-ray in 18months and make a killing on re-releasing. Thats just factored into their equation. Blu-ray will win, it CANNOT lose. The time scale is the only variable.

I just wish people would STFU and ignore the FUD'er's.

[Sonar5]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

I won't post a long message 'cos I'm feeling a bit under the weather (some evil virus or other).

Hope you feel better, and great post. Thanks.

[C6 Z06]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

I won't post a long message 'cos I'm feeling a bit under the weather (some evil virus or other). However for those concerned about sad & pathetic last ditch efforts by the red ant brigade to salvage an ounce of credibility from the Q4 sales, here are some numbers to consider.

Just my estimates of what Nielsen report but it put's the HD DVD challenge into perspective. Take 'em or leave 'em.

When Blu-ray thrashed the red ants 61:39 on what should have been a good week for them, the Blu-ray volume exceeded 240,000 units.
In the Simpsons week (last full week before Christmas) we will see Blu-ray volume exceed 350,000 units and a crushing 70%+ for Blu-ray.

And, in the final week of the year, Blu-ray should comfortably sell over 220,000 units. Remember that's just estimated actual Nielsen reporting BTW. Studio estimates will put these Blu-ray volumes up to 50% higher.

Now, selling a few thousand copies on Amazon - hell, even a few tens of thousands gets our red ant friends doing their victory dances (and who would begrudge these pathetic creatures a little festive happiness) but ANYONE who thinks HD DVD are going to match the hundreds of thousands of units Blu-ray will sell this week has not been paying attention to any sales figures this year. Look for a market share comfortably over 60% on week 52.

Dance, little red ants, dance! Enjoy sitting atop the mighty Amazon chart ( ) for a little while. But, Nielsen will soon confirm that, like every week you allow yourselves hope, it is nothing more than a delusion.

Yes, but what about week 53? .................................................. lol J/K ...Good post Fozziwig, and I hope you feel better. Just watch a superior Blu movie, that should do the trick.

[eat_me_cool]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

now what choice do you think they will make in order to make the big bucks of the royalties.

Path of least resistance.

If HD-DVD gained Sony, Fox or Disney OR had a 2:1 sales advantage OR had a technological advantage OR that they had the majority of CE manufacturing support they would be declaring victory.

Blu-ray has ALL these advantages AND there is no mention of a 'format war' out side one major market.

Why would any businessman choose anything else??

Well.. don't try the 'HD-DVD is cheaper'. Players cost the same to make; BD disc's do cost 30% more but that cost is evened out with language region savings today (and quality premium) and the difference will vanish in the near future.

[eat_me_cool]

Originally Posted by al0137

That being said, I did read Maxpower's response but did not really seem to find any reason to respond because he didn't really refute anything I had said

Thats the conclusion I came to, your information seems genuine. You should make a little clearer which is fact/from your insider and which is your opinion. Other than that, I welcome your posts here.
Thanks.

Originally Posted by al0137

.

Everybody keeps up with the industry rags and I can bloody guarantee that they have been in contact with the BDA in the last month or so. You must remember that Sony aren't the only company in the BDA.

-The only part is pretty much disagree with. My contact told me that everyone at Warner was "way too busy" to get caught up in the blog/anyalst/industry chatter and are relying on their own "internal research". I believe my contact on this one. I think everyone at all the forums wants to believe there are Warner employees in disguise reading the forums. Just don't buy it myself. As for the second part of the quote, I even wrote that my contact confirmed that both groups have spoken with Warner as recently as November. I would assume he meant the HD-DVD Association and the BDA. I'll get confirmation on this.

This is where I think you are both correct. Max is talking about 'industry rags' and you are talking about blog/anyalst/industry, they are two separate things. Reading industry publications and checking the weekly sales figures is a given, its expected. Wasting time on blogs, AVS, AVF and Blu-ray.com is strictly for fanboys .. not people with jobs.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by al0137

I'm just saying if Warner does not bite to Blu exclusivity come Q1 of 2008, then we all need to start worrying about Disney more and more with the fact that they felt compelled enough to vote on the TL51 spec (the only Blu exclusive studio to do so..).

Disney has a corporate policy against abstaining from votes at the DVD Forum. If you think about that for a moment, you'll realize their vote was the obvious choice.

Gary

[gandley]

exactly, Disney have always voted on HD DVD and were at one time working with MS on the HDI stuff.
For Disney and knowing format wars are unpredictable, they could be just making sure that should they have to use HD DVD then at least it would meet most of there needs.

thankfully Blu is holding up, with Disney producing some of the best work.

lets face it for Disney to go HD DVD means new encodes, not exactly cheap.

[krinkle]

Don't worry so much everyone.

Warner will do whatever they are going to do.

Some great things in our favor though:

1) Blu-ray has won the war in Japan, all movies released in HD in Japan will be Blu.

2) USA and JP are now the same region.

3) Blu-ray is winning Europe 5:1

4) So worst case scenario, we can import

Even though I have a HD DVD player (yuck! ) I will be importing Beowulf on Blu-ray from England instead of buying the USA HD DVD.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by al0137

Well.. my contact actually works for Warner HMV. So yeah - guess who I'm talking to is just some analyst who reads the stats. Just because somebody posts on this board every two minutes doesn't make them an "expert" by any means. I'm not saying I'm an "expert" either but just providing information as I know it from a close source to the action.

What do people want here!?!?

I suggest you do what all the other people here have done that provide “inside” information.

If you are an “insider” in the business, I suggest you state your credentials to the moderators here(in a PM) and also supply them with a list of referrals with contact numbers so that they can verify.

If you are not an “insider” but, have credible “insider” information to offer on threads such as these, I suggest you PM the moderators with your source’s position, credentials, contact info, etc. so that they may verify. It is really quite easy to do.

Hell, I became an “insider” on AVS within 24-48 hrs. or so and they never liked me there to begin with because I always crossed swords with Amir whenever he got out of line.....plus, to my knowledge they never have revealed the worldwide studio President referral I listed for contact purposes.

Everything will be kept confidential otherwise, myself and other “insiders” would never post on this forum. If you think that your “source” would feel uncomfortable in your revealing such basic background information for this forum’s vetting process, then I think that members here should be equally uncomfortable with what he tells you….and in turn what you tell the members here. So, save us the bandwidth.

This is the only method of quality control that any legitimate forum has to prevent every Tom, Dick and Harry from becoming the next “my-source-tells-me” dude. If you want to read that sort of thing, read HDD. People tell me that there are plenty of them there.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by al0137

That - I absolutely agree with you there. In any case, my "insider" information only gives me any credibility to say that Warner is still up for grabs (as of right before Christmas). I'm hoping to talk to my guy one more time before CES (he's on vacation now..) and hopefully he'll give me something more substantial.

Go thru the vetting process as described above, otherwise, don’t bother talking to your guy and posting what he says here.

[dakota81]

Originally Posted by Esox50

I think it has to do with Paramount. If anything, it taught us that ANYTHING can, and will, happen.

And it also taught us that (1) Warner did not accept a similar offer, (2) money-making directors can be pissed off at such moves, (3) the hell that breaks loose from such an unexpected move against consumer trends.

And anyways, Paramount didn't teach us anything we didn't already know, that corporations look out for themselves first. It's been abundantly clear with the number and quality of releases, that Warner wants HDM to succeed far more than Paramount could care about. And in that sense, I do not believe Warner will take the cash payoff to doom the growth of HDM.

[miokti]

Originally Posted by dakota81

And it also taught us that (1) Warner did not accept a similar offer, (2) money-making directors can be pissed off at such moves, (3) the hell that breaks loose from such an unexpected move against consumer trends.

And anyways, Paramount didn't teach us anything we didn't already know, that corporations look out for themselves first. It's been abundantly clear with the number and quality of releases, that Warner wants HDM to succeed far more than Paramount could care about. And in that sense, I do not believe Warner will take the cash payoff.

The biggest thing that the paramount move thought us is that it didn't work... it didn't help HD-DVD at all.

[jdc115]

Originally Posted by Esox50

Does anyone else find it pathetic that some people feel the need to PM Penton-Man, or post in the Insiders Thread, every friggin week there is a new HD DVD sale or some @sshole named 'Lotus', 'Kosty', 'rdjam', 'hdnow', etc posting MORE RUMORS?

Grow up people. Businesses do not make decisions overnight based on one sale or some other bullsh!t. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, if you need constant reassurance with regard to this format war, then you have no business being in it at this stage in the game.

I truly believe that within the next 2-4 months, clarity will be provided...

I agree, I often feel compelled to post in the thread asking for people to stop the discussions but then I would only be adding to the problem. I would rather that thread drop to 2 posts a day if it would be a proper question and proper answer then have the few insider responses followed by 2 pages of banter.

My proposal, any post that starts with "I know I am not an insider but..."
gets banned.

[PaulGo]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

The only reason I might stop posting on this site is because we have bunch pansies. You win 51 weeks in a row and yet the sky is falling. I must say I admire HD DVD followers a lot more. They never win a week but yet they're optimistic about the future (they're insane) but yet optomistic

Pansies is a very charitable term. Ever since Paramount sold out it appears most people here are plain paranoid! Every time PM says something reassuring it quiets most people down for several hours and then they just go nuts again. All they want is a security blanket. This is the real world and you can't read something into everything that happens! Have some confidence and patience. We will prevail but we can't have instant gratification.

Think Blu but be happy! If I were an HD-DVD supporter I would have a lot to worry about.

[blindcat87]

Ok, can the TL 51 crap just go away. Want a great way to dash any credibility you have? Keep plugging this already rusty old canard. The issue and anything to do with it, votes on it, or generally occupying any space around it is moot.

Why you who still doubt say? The same bloody reason that has been stated from the first time this little bit of pure talking point trash was mentioned. The magic third layer could add 500 gigs to the storage, the failure rate could be reduced to zero and it would still be moot. Even if they got it to work on all existing players with simple firmware, it doesn't change the bandwidth limitation one little drop. That is the real limitation of HD DVD. Increase the container to mammoth proportions all you want. It doesn't help you deal with the bandwidth issues and that cannot be altered without hardware changes. Hardware changes means basically a brand new format, and it is just a little late for that.

Everyone focuses on the storage size difference as the primary advantage of BD. While it is an advantage, the real intelligence and innovation in the BD standard is twofold. The higher bandwidth, and having not only bandwidth reserved for video, but also for audio. They can futz with the software all they want, but HD DVD cannot match this without hardware changes, in other words basically turning themselves into BD.

You can argue about whether TL 51 will or will not actually play on current players or not until you pass out from lack of oxygen. It doesn't widen that pipeline one bit and it doesn't help you when you have space for that longer movie but still have to decide whether to compromise the video for lossless audio and whether or not it is worth the effect on the total video bandwidth to include that super cool all important talking head PIP feature.

Chris

[sj001]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

Pansies is a very charitable term. Ever since Paramount sold out it appears most people here are plain paranoid! Every time PM says something reassuring it quiets most people down for several hours and then they just go nuts again. All they want is a security blanket. This is the real work and you can't read something into everything that happens! Have some confidence and patience. We will prevail but we can't have instant gratification.

Think Blu but be happy! If I were an HD-DVD supporter I would have a lot to worry about.

100%. It drives me nuts, there is FUD spread constantly, and nobody seems to have any confidence in this format at all! I suggest before people start panicking, do a little research, it will suggest that Blu-ray is kicking the SNOT out of HD-DVD. Also, stop bugging the Insiders EVERY single MF'in time one little possible microthread of doubt comes into play. Also, I would suggest people stop reading all of the FUD spreading sites, and then coming in here posting them, that is just helping their cause.

[reider]

Say no Evil, See no Evil, Hear no Evil (Evil=HD-DVD in our case) - that is the attitude I sense from many of the posters here... and it's wrong! In a war, you don't just go blindly ahead - you have to know and you have to analyze what the enemy is doing.
"If in doubt - get out" - that's even worse ! That is not the way to attract the "purples" and that is not the way to hold weak "blu's" from becoming purple!
Members of this forum are likely to range from early teens to past their 50'. Yes, some of them need constant reassurance, and yes, some of them are worried big time about their investment in blu....I read in nearly every thread that somebody's going "broke" or is spending all of his free money on blu.
I address this post to all the senior members of this forum: Like all the good leaders, please be patient with them , inspire them . Giving them a little extra reassurance will not hurt you, but will go extra mile with their beliefs and their continued support of the format . Remember that there are a lot of new members here that reading your posts.

Thank you.