What about Warner? Part the Second

[blindcat87]

Oh, yeah, Amir is helping the sneaky BD insiders cover their butts and brace us for disappointment. If you want to know how Blu insiders brace us for when they really think or know real setbacks are coming research back to the time of the Paramount thing and see P-Man's attempt to give a head's up that everyone missed.

It is amazing how things always run in the same cycles around here. News pops up that looks good for BD. Insiders say that things are looking good. People say that is great and discuss. A couple of people discuss the possible ways this could go wrong, some of them go to other forums and read the other side discussing how the smurfs or whatever term they choose are deluding themselves. Folks with a history of posting pure negativity point out that the BDA has never done anything right and that we are doomed. Then normally reasonable members begin posting how this is it and we are being set up for doom and it is all over.

It grows worse because the insiders will not post a 100% iron clad guarantee that nothing will go awry and other promises that anyone would be a fool to make. They don't answer questions that anyone with a brain could see that answering or going any further in answering would get them fired, so they must be bracing us for the horror to come. They didn't reassure us every 5 minutes, so it is doom. What do you want? The questions were answered. If you actually comprehend English and pay attention to the words coming out of their keyboards and better yet pay attention to the behavior of insiders on the other side, then perhaps you wouldn't need to start popping valium and Maalox every 10 minutes.

Pause, take a deep breath, actually read what the insiders have already said, note that they have more important things to do during this extremely busy time than to repeat themselves every 5 minutes when people's attention span expires and they need reassurance.

The positive outcome is not guaranteed. But this cyclone of negativity has a very definite pattern and I think if people reread things they will see the pattern and the downward spiral and realize that they are mostly doing it to themselves.

The most likely negative possibility would be WB staying neutral. Going red exclusibe is not a win for HD DVD. It evenly divides the industry on the software side and doesn't change the hardware side. It does not remove any of the reasons other studios have against HD DVD and if you look at things from those studios perspective, those problems are insurmountable for HD DVD without a major paradigm shift. The financial and self protection reasons as well as reasons of industry polotics have been spelled out a hundred times. You don't have to accept them, that is your perrogative. But I believe that if you look at the entire picture, tht it is obvious that an evenly divided software market equals doom or niching of the HDM market. You can disagree, but I see no evidence other than blanket statements of "I see no reason why it wouldn't go this way" as the only evidence in support of this view. Most importantly, I think WB can see this as the likely outcome of such a decision. And, for the hundredth time, they see the slide in income from DVD and the need to get things going fast in HDM. They have seen, from the perspective of a content provider, what just transpired with Wal-Mart's download service. They know that Apple also wants content providers for downloads and that, while neither company's model for home player is very mature, Apple has a massive advantage in portables. No matter how much MS tries to play things off, you can bet Apple sees through this move and isn't going to let the download side of this event go without a fight. I could go on and on and on, but it has all been said.

There is no guarantee until the press releases fly, but if you actually look at the whole picture, there is a load more evidence in favor of optimism, a lot less evidence in favor of a less favorable outcome, and about diddle over squat, unless you want to start counting random fanboys or Amir and companys statements that HDM is over as the word of truth, in favor of the doomsday scenario that suddenly popped up after the insiders, as they said they were going to due to work and such, went offline.

Just my opinion of course. But seriously, look at the pattern of chatter following every major insider news development since the Paramount trauma and you will see this same pattern emerge again and again. Thinkk about that. [

merrick97, given that my little rant here got bigger than I intended, I want to make sure you know that I am not by any means trying to say that you are any kind of FUD poster, chicken littles, or other personal negative things. Too much personal negative crap has been happening of late and I don't want any misunderstandings here. I read your posts and see that you are a poster that tries to consider things from multiple viewpoints and who thinks before he posts. I just happen to disagree with you here and have seen this pattern emerge and a lot of very smart and logical posters get sucked into it again and again. All other areas where I disagree with you here considered, I totally agree with you that the BDA must not let WB go and that they absolutely need to convince them that neutrality for much longer would be nearly as disasterous as going red. I just really believe that the BDA does understand this, and more importantly that WB is not as dense as some seem to fear they are. They are, financially, one of the best off studios right now, they already refused one bribe, they have a new CEO of the parent company that has a very practical and realistic outlook, and they also have a track record of being one of the most independent studios around. I don't think that the studio that, on multiple occasions turned down help in mastering their BDs in house because they don't like giving up control are likely to want to make any deals that give MS any inroads on their ability to control their properties in any way shape or form. Particularly when they have a bad history with MS and a history of making moves to counteract MSs power in any market in which they have dealings with MS. Anything could happen, a comet could slam into my house tomorrow. But I think that the fact that the entire West Coast could fall into the ocean tonight or that a new island could rise out of the middle of the Atlantic at any moment is the main reason to not make a definite statement about the outcome before the outcome happens.

chris

Originally Posted by merrick97

I posted this in the insiders section and I will post it here as well:

I will say one thing:

If the BDA lets Warner get away then they will have proven that they are an incompetent organization that has no business defining the future for HD media.
Seriously, if they cant collectively beat a supposed $400 million offer from Toshiba, then why should we as consumers have ANY faith that they can hold onto Fox, Lionsgate and eventually Disney?

Seriously, everything the BDA has worked for is on the line here. All the Nielsen wins and PS3 sales will mean NOTHING if they allow Warner to go HD-DVD exclusive.

I really hope that all this talk about Microsoft wanting downloads is not hiding the the possibility that the BDA is getting very nervous and they are starting to "spin" this already in case they lose out.

Sorry to be so pessimistic, but the fact of the matter is bluray is toast if Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive.