Format War Extended - Universal Announces 100 new Exclusives

[Need0fMany]

Disappointing but truly not surprising. While either Universal or Toshiba could end the format war on their own, the company that is really pulling all the strings and keeping this charade alive is Microsoft.

As many keen observers have stated on these boards, Microsoft's strategy is to push their codec and its associated licenses as well as moving away from discs and toward DRM downloads with limited rights (you can't lend a download to a friend like you would a disc, you can't have services like Netflix or used\trading stores).

Why would Universal and Toshiba go along with this if the long-term goal is to kill off HD discs? Because one company, cash rich from monopoly profits, is giving them incentives. Of course they can't just give them money, they are too smart for that. They use the same tricks as military contractors do. Microsoft just overpays Toshiba for drives, parts, Zune design and production, in return for continued format support. As for Universal, same thing, they just overpay for download rights, free marketing on their web pages and 360 adware, give them codec discounts, and below cost extensive encoding support in exchange for them "sticking it out" in this war.

Sure, some people might joke and think this is "tinfoil hat" speak but when you read the testimonies of the anti-trust trials of Microsoft (which they lost in the US until a change in policies reverse those rulings, which they lost in Europe and are being fined every day), then there is no underestimating Microsoft.

In short, HD-DVD is truly M$-DVD and I am sad to say it will be here for years to come. Enjoy and support Blu-ray but don't expect a quick resolution; learn to be patient, ignore FUD, educate those that have not yet drunk the M$ kool-aid.

[dialog_gvf]

Universal Studios Home Entertainment Fuels HD DVD Momentum with More Than 100 HD DVD Offerings Planned for Release in 2007

Since the format's inception in April 2006, USHE has released 60 titles on HD DVD, and currently boasts four of the top 10 best-selling HD DVDs year-to-date, including Casino, Serenity, Fearless and Miami Vice.

Here's the kicker:

"With more than two million HD DVD players expected in the market in North America by the end of 2007, Universal Studios Home Entertainment is committed to expanding its portfolio of compelling HD DVD content and further igniting consumer demand," said Craig Kornblau, President of Universal Studios Home Entertainment. "By releasing most of our titles as combo discs we effectively satisfy consumers' multi-viewing habits, providing them with the most cost-effective option to watch their favorite films in either their DVD or HD DVD players."

So, now the prediction is 2 million players (+ 1.825 million this year) in North America alone?!!

Folks, there is absolute confirmation of Microsoft putting an HD DVD in the Xbox 360. It's the only logical way this could be accomplished.

Gary

[JTK]

Originally Posted by 4K display

Universal's choice is their loss not mine. They can have their flippers and eat them too. There is nothing past, present or future in Universals vault that would make me even think about buying a HD DVD player. Sure I would love to see Uni titles on BD, they have some real gems, but as long as they continue this pathetic belief that they can compete with THREE MAJOR BD exclusive studios I don't give a flying leap what they do...YMMV

I couldn't have said it better myself. I won't even give them the indirect satisfaction of an import.

It's called a complete boycott by me until I can directly buy a BD disc from them.

I haven't bought any DVD's in almost a year now, so that's out anyways.

I suspect by Christmas time Universal will almost certainly be throwing BD some bones just from a revenue standpoint.

Even now, this is just wretched business to be ignoring BD utterly, but the NBC-MS connection makes all too much sense.

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Universal Studios Home Entertainment Fuels HD DVD Momentum with More Than 100 HD DVD Offerings Planned for Release in 2007



Here's the kicker:



So, now the prediction is 2 million players (+ 1.825 million this year) in North America alone?!!

Folks, there is absolute confirmation of Microsoft putting an HD DVD in the Xbox 360. It's the only logical way this could be accomplished.

Gary

Their crappy add-on doesn't count?

So many people suspected that an Xbox 360.5 was going to happen once the vastly superior hardware of the PS3 hit the streets.

This would be just like them to do something stupid like this.

BTW, we all can "predict" whatever we want to as well, but that doesn't make it so.

[ProvenFlipper]

I'm just wondering about this so-called "momentum" the article talks about.

Also, 90% combos? They have to know that the HD-DVD fans hate combos, maybe they are doing this to slow HD-DVD sales even more. The average joe comes in to our store and sees the high price of combos and doesn't buy any HD-DVDs at all...

[phloyd]

[QUOTE=dialog_gvf;46985
So, now the prediction is 2 million players (+ 1.825 million this year) in North America alone?!!

Folks, there is absolute confirmation of Microsoft putting an HD DVD in the Xbox 360. It's the only logical way this could be accomplished.
[/QUOTE]

I don't think even that would help all that much...

The add on drive is not on track to sell more than roughly 1M total assuming it remains as popular as it was in the first month - which is not a good assumption.

Personally I don't see any way that HD DVD can sell 2M by the end of this year.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by ProvenFlipper

I'm just wondering about this so-called "momentum" the article talks about.

Also, 90% combos? They have to know that the HD-DVD fans hate combos, maybe they are doing this to slow HD-DVD sales even more. The average joe comes in to our store and sees the high price of combos and doesn't buy any HD-DVDs at all...

Combos are DOA with almost everyone at this point, and rightfully so.

[Nismobeach]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Universal Studios Home Entertainment Fuels HD DVD Momentum with More Than 100 HD DVD Offerings Planned for Release in 2007



Here's the kicker:



So, now the prediction is 2 million players (+ 1.825 million this year) in North America alone?!!

Folks, there is absolute confirmation of Microsoft putting an HD DVD in the Xbox 360. It's the only logical way this could be accomplished.

Gary

Or start dumping tons of subsidized no-name sub $300 players onto the market. Which Microsoft could theoretically help accomplish. It's a win win situation in that regards because VC-1 still gets used.

[Nismobeach]

Originally Posted by JTK

Combos are DOA with almost everyone at this point, and rightfully so.

The only way the combos would work is if Universal stops releasing standard DVDs altogether. IMO, I just don't see that happening anytime.

[scott1256ca]

I don't know if Universal is getting payola to stay loyal to hd dvd, but I don't think they are currently giving up much money by not releasing on BD. Here is my math.

For HD DVD side
~175000 players sold so far
~150 titles released so far
attach rate of 28/year (their number, not mine)
~3/4 of a year since they released
means each HD DVD owner has, on average 21 titles.
21 titles * 175000 player divided by 150 titles means each title sells on average 24,500 disks

That is a small amount. If the titles sell for $25 avg, that is a little more than $600 000 sales per title. That money is spread across the entire chain, retailers, shippers, distributors etc.
If the studio is going to make a positive impression with older titles, then they have to clean up the masters, and I bet that is expensive, and be careful on the encodes. They also have to spend some time and effort they on HDi or other HD only goodies.
Now, I know those numbers are just a snapshot in time, and any given title will sell more over the coming years, but for now that isn't much money per title, and given fixed costs, I wouldn't be suprised if the studios are running at a loss on each title so far. Even if they are making a profit, I hardly think they look at HD DVD as a cash cow yet.

Now, depending on whose sales figures you want to go with, if you believe the amazon figures, then BD is selling roughly equivalent to HD DVD. If you believe DVD Empire, BD is outselling HD DVD 2-1 lately. So using the dvd empire numbers, Universal is giving up $1.2mil per title by not supporting BD. It still wouldn't surprise me if that translated into losing some money per title.

For the studios, this is NOT about today, it is about tomorrow. High Def disk (either format) is a loss leader to get J6P into HD. Once the studios do, they can sell their content to him/her (again), have better security against piracy, sell the titles at a premium etc. and have a rosier future. If Universal waits a year to start supporting BD, I bet they give up next to nothing.
Personally, I'm not going to bother with HD DVD and will bypass the Universal titles for now, but when Universal does start selling BD's, and I believe they will, then I will look over the titles and pick and choose the ones I want. Same as I do now with current BD's. Universal will still get my money, just a little late.

What did surprise me about their announcement yesterday was the number of combo disks they want to sell. I don't know how much more they cost to manufacture, but they seem to charge $3-$4 more for each of them. I just don't understand the reasoning behind combo's. If I, as a consumer, don't own HD DVD yet, no way would I pay the extra money for a flipper. I'd buy the regular dvd and repurchase the title later when I do buy into HD DVD (if I were going to, which I'm not). That way I could still decide to support BD, not HD DVD and not be out any investment in media. Like most, I was never a fan of flipper disks. I'd like the artwork, and I like to know I'm not putting the disk in wrong side up. I think this is a mistake on Universal's part.

As to having 2 million HD player in homes by the end of 2007, didn't the HD DVD camp claim they would have 600000 players in homes by the end of 2006? Where are they?

If MS does release an XBOX with an HD DVD drive built in, especially after claiming time and again they wouldn't, I think they should call it the XBOX 180.

Scott

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Nismobeach

The only way the combos would work is if Universal stops releasing standard DVDs altogether. IMO, I just don't see that happening anytime.

Yes. There is simply no where near enough replication capacity for even one major DVD title as a combo, let alone all of them.

If the cost of HD DVD replication were to require a replicator to upgrade EVERY DVD line, then the capital savings argument would evaporate.

Gary

[HDTV1080P]

Here is the problem the HD-DVD camp has and why all their future releases most likely will be dual discs. When the average consumer is walking next to a HDTV movie display in a retail store like Best Buy they will see the words HD-DVD. The average consumer thinks that this HD-DVD is like a Super bit DVD and will play in their standard DVD player or unconverted DVD player.
I don’t like the combo dual disc feature also since it costs more and if I was going to spend several hours watching movies I want to see it in HDTV quality only. All the dual discs are flippers instead of two separate discs so that someone does not sale the standard version on EBAY and keep the HDTV version. If HD-DVD every went mainstream then Universal and other studios could stop making DVD discs and just make HD-DVD dual discs with standard DVD on one side and HDTV version on the other. Stores would love to just stock one disc that contained both DVD and HDTV version in same package, saves shelf space.
The advantage of BLU-RAY besides it being a better quality higher capacity disc is the name. When consumers walk by the BLU-RAY rack most of them don’t think it will play in a standard DVD player. BLU-RAY camp if they wanted to could produce a standard DVD on the other side of the BLU-RAY disc. HD-DVD camp has to produce dual discs in order to prevent many customer returns saying the disc will not play in their DVD player where as BLU-RAY does not have that problem.
HD-DVD camp claimed that they would be able to release movies faster since minor modification was needed to existing DVD replication factories and BLU-RAY had to have a dedicated factories just for BLU-RAY. So far HD-DVD has not proven they can release movies faster then BLU-RAY. By the end of 2007 let’s see if the BLU-RAY format or the HD-DVD format has more movies available. I would like to see 500 titles released in BLU-RAY this year if that is even possible. Quality is more important then quantity.

[Polyh3dron]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Universal Studios Home Entertainment Fuels HD DVD Momentum with More Than 100 HD DVD Offerings Planned for Release in 2007



Here's the kicker:



So, now the prediction is 2 million players (+ 1.825 million this year) in North America alone?!!

Folks, there is absolute confirmation of Microsoft putting an HD DVD in the Xbox 360. It's the only logical way this could be accomplished.

Gary

I would re-buy the 360 revision if this happened. They're also putting in a smaller 65nm CPU and I wouldn't have to worry about my 4th 360 getting destroyed by online updates like the last 3. Oh yeah and it'll have HDMI.

As for almost all of the discs being combo, Uni will try to push these combo discs on people who don't have an HD-DVD player or even know what one is. they'll buy them and watch them on their regular DVD players and this will inflate HD-DVD sales.

The combo disc thing is a way to spin the numbers so HD-DVD sales don't look as bad as they really are, just like Warner's Total HD discs.

[jmliu]

Hi guys,

I've been reading this forum for awhile now and I've found it to be pretty educational. I'm a PS3 owner and have always been a Blu-ray supporter.

Back on topic though, I found this news of 100 Exclusives from Universal to be a bit of a setback to ending the format war, but from this thread on highdefdigest.com, it might have unintentionally ended it for HD-DVD.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=2423

[Polyh3dron]

Originally Posted by Nismobeach

It's either panic or part of their (M)$trategy to keep HD-DVD on life support until widespread adoption of HD downloads occurs. Amir has admitted that he thinks downloads are the ultimate outcome of all of this.

Who the heck has enough Hard Disk space to store a bunch of 30-50GB movies? And who has the patience to download a file of that size? I would rather have discs myself. If I'm paying for a movie I want to own it. Not have it only work for a week and then expire like the 360 downloads (DIVX deja vu anyone?)

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by jmliu

Hi guys,

I've been reading this forum for awhile now and I've found it to be pretty educational. I'm a PS3 owner and have always been a Blu-ray supporter.

Back on topic though, I found this news of 100 Exclusives from Universal to be a bit of a setback to ending format war, but from this thread on highdefdigest.com, it might have unintentionally ended it for HD-DVD.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=2423

Good news for HD-DVD!!

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by Polyh3dron

Who the heck has enough Hard Disk space to store a bunch of 30-50GB movies? And who has the patience to download a file of that size? I would rather have discs myself. If I'm paying for a movie I want to own it. Not have it only work for a week and then expire like the 360 downloads (DIVX deja vu anyone?)

If you missed it, HD videos are already on offer using Xbox 360. However it is only 720p.

Basically that's what MS is trying to sell to Hollywood and to us: 720p and lossy soundtrack is good enough. 1080p would be too big to download.


fuad

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by jmliu

Back on topic though, I found this news of 100 Exclusives from Universal to be a bit of a setback to ending format war, but from this thread on highdefdigest.com, it might have unintentionally ended it for HD-DVD.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=2423

That post is priceless - though I imagine many share that sentiment (though perhaps a little more calmly ).

[Dave Mack]

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=794722

Man, the denial and the false hope on AVS is PRICELESS!
I found this article (2, actually ) about the Dreamworks universal debacle and put it in the thread and watch all the members try to rationalize!
"Awww... I'm sure Spielberg isn't really upset with Universal...."
Too funny...

[Knight-Errant]

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

If you missed it, HD videos are already on offer using Xbox 360. However it is only 720p.

Basically that's what MS is trying to sell to Hollywood and to us: 720p and lossy soundtrack is good enough. 1080p would be too big to download.


fuad

Well I have no qualms saying no to 720p.

1080p all the way baby!

I'm buying a Sony Pearl front projector to get the most out of my BDs

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by scott1256ca

I don't know if Universal is getting payola to stay loyal to hd dvd, but I don't think they are currently giving up much money by not releasing on BD. Here is my math.

For HD DVD side
~175000 players sold so far
~150 titles released so far
attach rate of 28/year (their number, not mine)
~3/4 of a year since they released
means each HD DVD owner has, on average 21 titles.
21 titles * 175000 player divided by 150 titles means each title sells on average 24,500 disks

That is a small amount. If the titles sell for $25 avg, that is a little more than $600 000 sales per title. That money is spread across the entire chain, retailers, shippers, distributors etc.
If the studio is going to make a positive impression with older titles, then they have to clean up the masters, and I bet that is expensive, and be careful on the encodes. They also have to spend some time and effort they on HDi or other HD only goodies.
Now, I know those numbers are just a snapshot in time, and any given title will sell more over the coming years, but for now that isn't much money per title, and given fixed costs, I wouldn't be suprised if the studios are running at a loss on each title so far. Even if they are making a profit, I hardly think they look at HD DVD as a cash cow yet.

Well I posted some sales calculations based oh how the 28 attach rate was calculated here. So using that with $25 per disc would gave about $333,325 sales per title...