How long until Blu wipes out DVD?

[Merrick]

Originally Posted by donricouga

Blu-ray versus DVD is an uphill battle. You have to factor in the cost of not only buying a blu-ray player but Buying an HDTV to take advantage of the 1080p picture. Some might even want to upgrade their sound system to take advantage of the lossless codecs and uncompressed PCM audio. I know I did. This isn't cheap compared to buying a big crappy tv, a HTIB and a $40 dvd player. 5-6 years is MINIMUM

But don't forget - after the switch over (must be completed by 2009) people who want to stick with their old TV will have to buy a decoder to convert the digital signal to a format compatible with their old TV. For OTA people their choice is going to be simple: a $200 decoder which takes the really pretty picture on the HDTV sitting next to the decoder display and turns it into a crappy picture for them, or $600-$800 for a TV that will do the decoding (by 2009 that'll be standard) and show them the nice picture. That'll spilt no worse that 50:50 - probably more like 75:25 or better for a new HDTV.

Now, the installed cable base that already has decoders doing this or will replace the new decoders for nothing more than a visit and a minor change to the monthly rates will slow this - but the transition to HDTV in 2009/2010 is going to be rapid - be assured of that.

Than, as i've said here before - when people watch Brian Williams in HD t 6:30 then stick one of their favorite DVDs in and find they can no longer stand the crappy resolution they ar eseeing the extra $200-$300 purchase for a decent BD player in 2009/2010 is going to be a no-brainer.

[Chad Varnadore]

Originally Posted by coolwavepic

I kind of disagree with all of you who say DVD's end is near. There is a lot of SD stuff out on DVD (like TV shows, ect) that arent in HD or probabaly never will be in HD. I could be wrong but wouldnt it be stupid to put SD material on blu-ray? I think DVD will be around ALOT longer then we think.

DVDs end is far from near, just as you can still buy brand new VHS. But, aside from some TV shows shot on lower grade video, the sources are not normally SD. Like movies, most TV shows are shot on film. The Shield is shot on 16mm, so was Bob Newhart. And even that looks better when preserved in high def than standard def. Even shows like The Fall Guy used 35mm filmstock, just like the cinema, which based on the Season 1 DVDs, could look amazing on BD, if sales ever reach high enough numbers to justify a release. Hogan's Heroes was rebroadcast in 1080i not too long ago. It was also reframed from the original 1.33 to 1.78. While purists may not appreciate the reformating, it looked terrific.

[Mystique]

I believe it will take over DVD's in 3-4 years, but by then theres going to be new technology out that's better than Blu-Ray.

[movies3]

Originally Posted by Mystique

I believe it will take over DVD's in 3-4 years, but by then theres going to be new technology out that's better than Blu-Ray.

im hoping not to see that for another 5 yrs at least

[justinbaily]

Well prices must come down because while target has big fish SD @ $10 amazon has the BD version @ $19.99. Even after that with car dvd players and kid dvd's
of elmo and co. not really needing the HD treatment there may always be vegie tales,baby einstein and the like. When viewing nemo care because you watch it
but especially for car baby shows i couldn't justify caring-until BD surplants dvd
as the standard which would make it cheaper.

As for me i bought my ps-3 60 gig on jan 2 this year and havn't bought a sd dvd
sience. All i buy is BD stuff now. Personally i order it all from amazon.

Heck when we're done messing about with this format war BD will be cheaper
because it will be the standard.

[Chad Varnadore]

Originally Posted by Mystique

I believe it will take over DVD's in 3-4 years, but by then theres going to be new technology out that's better than Blu-Ray.

There's already greater storage. But, there won't be a new optical disc technology ahead unless BD isn't bringing in sales. If the format is successful enough to succeed DVD, that won't be the case. Studios aren't likely to jump on a new format if the one they're currently supporting has proven profitable. They'd be hurting growth potential of both in the same way as Warner and Paramount is now. The industry can't support it at a time that HDTV still won't be as large a fixture as SDs. It needs one format to encourage growth not just of HD packaged media, but of HDTV in general.

Displays will likely settle on 1080p for the forseeable future, as even that can be argued is overkill for 50" and smaller displays and higher resolutions don't offer as much value outside of commercial venues. With Java, BD should be able to keep the format fresh for some time, if they're creative enough.

[Rup_Muk]

Originally Posted by jermwhl

I think a major factor that will urge the process along is the FCC's mandate to go digital. Feb. 17, 2009 will require all stations to be airing digital only content (in the U.S.), which hopefully most of them will be in HD. Once most consumers have HDTV's in their home, the demand for HD media should also increase substantially. I can say without a doubt DVD will be here for at least that long, but I would expect by 2011 DVD would be mainly hard to find in at least B&M stores.

^^ I agree wholeheartedly. In about 5-6 years HDTV adoption would be complete and the pricepoint for HD related paraphernalia - including BD players and BDs - would have become more alluring to J6P... There will be only BLU on the market... and WE here will be gloating and celebrating as being the doyens of an emerging technology.

IMHO!!

[drwatson1234]

I don't think it'll wipe out DVD's for a very long time. DVD has effectively wiped out VHS because of convenience, size, and the lack of compatibility between the two formats. Because DVD's are compatible with Blu-ray and are the same size (physical dimensions), I don't think we'll see Blu-ray wipe out DVD's for a quite a long time.

[Canada]

I put DVD will die in 5-6 years but I think it will be much longer. Because my Dad thinks DVD's look fine and my parents don't have a HDTV but I do. My Aunt and Uncle just upgraded to DVD a little over 1 year ago. So I think it will be a long while before we ever see DVD die. I think we will see the death of HD-DVD come a lot sooner than DVD, at least I hope so.

[GasCat]

I would put it at 10 years. There will be another format we'll embrace and people will get our used Blu discs at giveaway prices.

10 years VHS-->DVD
10 years DVD-->Blu (We are here)
10 years Blu--->???

[boweyang]

This thread reminds me of an episode of the simpsons where they where walking along a trash dump and at first you saw a trash heap for 8-tracks, then you saw a trash heap for cassettes, then one for VHS. Finally there was one that said "Reserved for DVD." If anyone has seen or has that episode on dvd should put it on youtube because I barely remember that episode.

[Aaron]

Originally Posted by boweyang's sig

If you want something better than sex, click on me!

I'm stealing that from you.

[The Don]

I say 5-6 years until DVD is gone...

[john_1958]

Originally Posted by aaronwt

BD will never supplant DVD. On Demand and video downloads will supplant DVD before BD/HD DVD ever will.
The sales of BD/HD DVD are just pathetic. If you combine all titles sold from both formats, they don't even equal the weekly sales of one good DVD title. The next gen formats sales are nothing but pathetic. You average person knows very little about High Definition and nothing about BD/HD DVD.

Sd-dvds are just plain dumb period just like downloading

[Ender]

I would say it depends on the studios. If they continue to fully support DVD in the future, then I think DVD will continue to be the mainstream format, with BD being for enthusiasts, not unlike the way VHS and LD were able to coexist. If they want BD to become mainstream, prices for both hardware and software need to drop, and DVDs should be gradually phased out as HDTV sales increase.

[gandley]

HDTV penetration in the USa stands at 30% now, so when its like 95%, then you can talk about killing DVD.

Until then lets just kill off HD-DVD

http://crunchgear.com/2007/06/27/int...d-dvd-is-dead/

[159753]

In my humble opinion, the death of DVDs will be long time, probably as far as 2025 before people think they are a corpse.

The current death of cassettes, like audio tapes and VHS is a bit premature at the moment, as people are still using them, many people I know have VCRs mainly for recording stuff off the telly like soaps, so they can watch them later, plus they are simpler to use and cheaper compared to a DVD recorder.

You have to remember that HDTV has only been around for a few years, and even many public broadcasters like RTÉ (Ireland), ARD (Germany), RTP (Portugal) broadcast _only_ in SD (576i), so having them on Blu-ray is a bit pointless. The HD channels by the BBC and SVT are only trials, so anything can happen.

[movies3]

Originally Posted by 159753

In my humble opinion, the death of DVDs will be long time, probably as far as 2025 before people think they are a corpse.

The current death of cassettes, like audio tapes and VHS is a bit premature at the moment, as people are still using them, many people I know have VCRs mainly for recording stuff off the telly like soaps, so they can watch them later, plus they are simpler to use and cheaper compared to a DVD recorder.

You have to remember that HDTV has only been around for a few years, and even many public broadcasters like RTÉ (Ireland), ARD (Germany), RTP (Portugal) broadcast _only_ in SD (576i), so having them on Blu-ray is a bit pointless. The HD channels by the BBC and SVT are only trials, so anything can happen.

i dont think it will take to 2025 because by then bluray will be old news IMO.

[docjan_uk]

That it will be old news is somewhat besides the point.
Whilst I don't think there will be an appreciable presence in 2025, I can certainly see DVD still around in some form for atleast a decade or so.
Technologies tend to follow overlapping S curves.
New tech arrives, gradually improves and takes off, then really improves in the midphase which is the middle of the s, then tails off.
Meanwhile somewhere around the middle to 2/3'rds portion another S begins.
Always been the way though the next version could quite possibly be pure downloads.

Some say you can't fit enough through the pipes, well in a decade to 15 years, the average pipe into the home is going to be pretty fat.

[movies3]

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

That it will be old news is somewhat besides the point.
Whilst I don't think there will be an appreciable presence in 2025, I can certainly see DVD still around in some form for atleast a decade or so.
Technologies tend to follow overlapping S curves.
New tech arrives, gradually improves and takes off, then really improves in the midphase which is the middle of the s, then tails off.
Meanwhile somewhere around the middle to 2/3'rds portion another S begins.
Always been the way though the next version could quite possibly be pure downloads.

Some say you can't fit enough through the pipes, well in a decade to 15 years, the average pipe into the home is going to be pretty fat.

yea i agree with ya, but as far as downloading movies i dont agree with it i want a hard copy