Discussion: HD downloads are not a threat to Blu-ray

[Flea77]

Something else that is always overlooked is the bandwidth needed to download these files. No, I am not talking about end users, I am talking about the servers. So lets say that a particular BD title sells 100,000 copies on release day. To download that would require 100,000*50GB of data transfer. Lets see how that stacks up against current bandwidth technology:

Connection speed:, Time required 1 DL:, Time 100,000 DL:,
Purchase BD, Instant, Instant,
T1 (Slow DSL), 73.7 hours, 843.6 years,
T3 (Fast FIOS), 154 minutes, 29.44 years,
OC3, 43 minutes, 8.23 years,
OC12, 10.73 minutes, 2.05 years,
OC48, 2.6 minutes, 25.6 weeks,
OC192, 41.7 seconds, 6.9 weeks,
OC256, 30.1 seconds, 4.98 weeks,
OC768, 10 seconds, 11.57 days

So assuming there is no hiccups in the internet, and assuming the movie provider has the fastest internet connection in the world, it would take almost 12 days to provide 100,000 copies of the latest movie to the masses. Since the server can not serve any faster, and assuming concurrent connections, regardless of how fast your internet connection is you may have to wait up to twelve days to get your download assuming that NO OTHER TRAFFIC AT ALL is transfered over the internet.

Now lets look at something else, the hardware needed to feed a OC768 connection. Lets assume you intend to create a RAID 5 array for this project, using 15,000RPM SCSI 320 drives. Your first problem will be the controller which resides on the PCI-X bus, capable of running 1064MB/s so we know you will need at least four buses, or four machines. The next problem is your interface to the internet, the fastest of which I am familiar with is the 2Gb fiber channel connection. This works out to 258MB/s but would be sharing the bus with the SCSI controller. Most network cards can deliver about 1/2 of their rated speed due to system overhead, and on top of that we are sharing a bus, so realistically we can expect somewhere in the 75-100MB/s realm.

This means we would need sixty six very high end servers, feeding the world's fastest internet connection, undisturbed, for twelve days, just to deliver ONE movie to 100,000 people. So what happens when HD becomes more popular and that same day and date title sells one million copies the first day? Well you now need 2.3 YEARS to deliver the content assuming that NO OTHER TRAFFIC AT ALL is transfered over the internet!

To make things even worse, what happens when you have TWO studios releasing TWO movies with that amount of sales. Remember that we are using the fastest internet connection in the world, which just got divided between two studios, so now you need 4.6 YEARS to download your movie assuming that NO OTHER TRAFFIC AT ALL is transfered over the internet!

Lots of people spout about how FIOS or their 8Mb/s cable can download full movies in minutes. Unfortunately they think they live in a little bubble and have absolutely no clue what happens in the rest of the world. Oh, and by the way, should digital downloads become mainstream, and they would be using all the bandwidth, it could take weeks or months next time you need to do Windows/MacOS updates for you to download the updates since the fastest backbones in the world are saturated with movie downloads.

Yes, movie downloads will take over any day now

Allan

[mightypen]

You've done a good job here, and I don't mean to be too critical, but I do have a few nits to pick.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

[SIZE="5"]
You can only view a Downloaded movie on the device that it was downloaded to.

You can use media extenders over your home network. Yes, there are issues with these right now, but the technology isn't going to stand still.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

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2. Can I borrow and Lend downloaded movies with friends and family? No. You would have to lend or borrow the whole device or console that holds the download.

Depending on the service, you could burn your data to either a disk or sd card (in the near future), or use an external harddrive.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

[SIZE="5"]
3. Can I watch a Downloaded Movie numerous times over the course of a Year or the course of a month for that matter? No. Digital Download Movies are only good for a predetermined term or limited length of time. Usually 24 hours.

This may be the case currently, but for the future its pure speculation. In music you have rhapsody and you have itunes, very different models of digital music distribution. I expect movies to behave the same way, eventually.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

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For example, Microsoft offers Digital Movie Downloads on their XBoxLIVE service, which costs $50.00 per year. The Downloadable movies vary in price and are not included in the XBoxLIVE subscription fee.

You don't have to have live gold to download movies or tv shows. There is no subscription fee, its pay as you go.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

[SIZE="5"]
4. Are Digital downloadable Movies available in Full HD, 1080p with lossless Audio? No. Not yet. There is no date for the availability of full resolution Downloads.

I've never done it, but I believe there are 1080p movies floating around on the internet. Illegitimate, of course, but so was napster back in the day.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

[SIZE="5"]
A full catalog of Music does not require a large amount of Hard Drive space. One single HD Movie with 1080p resolution, 7.1 lossless Audio and Bonus Features could, in some cases, require 20gb to over 50gb of space depending on the movie. Just think of how much space you would need to retain a downloaded version of the Godfather Box set in Full HD.

Yes, but I picked up an external 1tb hd for ~230 this week. Right now there are space concerns, I could only have maybe 20 full movies at any given time, but prices are going to fall, sizes are going to increase, and who knows where we'll be in 2-3 years with potential hard drive capacity.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

[SIZE="5"]
For now, the Movie Download is a very long way from replacing Blu-disc/DVD media.

I agree with you there. Its a useful supplement, especially for very recent television shows, but there is something nice about physical ownership. (even when its not really ownership and just a license)

I made the above comments not to be a jackass or a dudder or an m$ hack or anything of the sort, I post this for the purpose of fleshing out arguments and having a mature dialog.

[blu-rayfan101]

Originally Posted by blu future

I think the only 'REAL' problem downloads pose is in terms of increased piracy, and I hope to God, that's not what the hd dud fans are hoping for.

Don't you want downloads to be copied so that studios don't like there movies being copied so they stop supporting downloads and release on blu-ray only.

[Scapp70]

It doesn't make sense to post a theoretical rebuttal. MightyPen's issues seem to all deal with some point in the future, not the present. Blu-Ray.com shouldn't be dealing with theoretical mumbo jumbo. You may have taken the time to post your theories MightyPen while not trying to be a jackass, but...

[superdynamite]

Originally Posted by mightypen

You've done a good job here, and I don't mean to be too critical, but I do have a few nits to pick.


You can use media extenders over your home network. Yes, there are issues with these right now, but the technology isn't going to stand still.

So are you saying that this makes Movie DL's portable??? I don't understand. You still can't lend them and they only last 1 day. The original download is still playing on the device it was DL'ed to.

Originally Posted by mightypen

Depending on the service, you could burn your data to either a disk or sd card (in the near future), or use an external harddrive.

What service allows you to keep your Digital downloaded movie forever and view it where and when ever you like without ever paying again??? Please tell me.

Originally Posted by mightypen

This may be the case currently, but for the future its pure speculation. In music you have rhapsody and you have itunes, very different models of digital music distribution. I expect movies to behave the same way, eventually.

How can they ever "behave the same way"??? Home theaters are not portable like MP3 players. Did you even read what I wrote?

Originally Posted by mightypen

You don't have to have live gold to download movies or tv shows. There is no subscription fee, its pay as you go.

I have XBL. You need a subscription to DL movies. You need to be on XBL to gain access.

Originally Posted by mightypen

I've never done it, but I believe there are 1080p movies floating around on the internet. Illegitimate, of course, but so was napster back in the day.

Do you mean piracy??? Is this really your point? I can't believe I'm even answering your post!

Originally Posted by mightypen

Yes, but I picked up an external 1tb hd for ~230 this week. Right now there are space concerns, I could only have maybe 20 full movies at any given time, but prices are going to fall, sizes are going to increase, and who knows where we'll be in 2-3 years with potential hard drive capacity.

How many of these drives would you need to save 875 movies with full features, each at 80GB average? also, how much does each drive cost?

Originally Posted by mightypen

I agree with you there. Its a useful supplement, especially for very recent television shows, but there is something nice about physical ownership. (even when its not really ownership and just a license)

Right, physical ownership wins. That is why digital DL's have their place. right next to PPV.

[WickyWoo]

I have XBL. You need a subscription to DL movies. You need to be on XBL to gain access.

No, you just need a free account to download movies. paid membership is not required

[mightypen]

Originally Posted by Scapp70

It doesn't make sense to post a theoretical rebuttal. MightyPen's issues seem to all deal with some point in the future, not the present. Blu-Ray.com shouldn't be dealing with theoretical mumbo jumbo. You may have taken the time to post your theories MightyPen while not trying to be a jackass, but...

The post started with: Will Digital Downloadable Movies replace Disc media?

It seemed to me that it was calling for discussion and speculation on the future of media as opposed to the current climate. Hopefully no one believes that dd is ready to replace anything in 2008, at best its a poor supplement.

If I misinterpreted that, then my apologies.

[Scapp70]

Originally Posted by mightypen

The post started with: Will Digital Downloadable Movies replace Disc media?

It seemed to me that it was calling for discussion and speculation on the future of media as opposed to the current climate. Hopefully no one believes that dd is ready to replace anything in 2008, at best its a poor supplement.

If I misinterpreted that, then my apologies.

I understand what you're saying Mighty, but while Superdynamite dealt with mostly facts, your rebuttal was almost all your theory or your opinion. You try to pick apart his article with your opinion, not based on facts.
I don't want to come across as harsh, but if there's one thing that gets under my skin, it's a theoretical point of view vs. the hard facts.

Peace,
Scapp70

[mightypen]

Originally Posted by superdynamite

So are you saying that this makes Movie DL's portable??? I don't understand. You still can't lend them and they only last 1 day. The original download is still playing on the device it was DL'ed to.

I was referring to your point of using them in one device. I was pointing out a way to get around that through the use of a media extender. Not as portable as physical media, but again, I've pointed out ways to do that as well-burning a copy to disc, using an sd card, using an external hd.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

What service allows you to keep your Digital downloaded movie forever and view it where and when ever you like without ever paying again??? Please tell me.

I'm sorry, like I said in my earlier post, I must've misinterpreted you. I thought you were calling for a discussion on the future, not present. My apologies.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

How can they ever "behave the same way"??? Home theaters are not portable like MP3 players. Did you even read what I wrote?

My response was to this quote of yours: "Can I watch a Downloaded Movie numerous times over the course of a Year or the course of a month for that matter? No. Digital Download Movies are only good for a predetermined term or limited length of time. Usually 24 hours."

I was pointing out that there are several schemes for how to distribute music. Rhapsody you don't really own, you can just have a license to listen to it through rhapsody players (my knowledge is about a year out of date, this might have changed). Other systems allow you to download the music file and do what you wish with it. I think its a leap to assume that movie distribution will be homogeneous.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

subscription to DL movies. You need to be on XBL to gain access.

You can download movies and tv shows while using a free silver account.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

Do you mean piracy??? Is this really your point? I can't believe I'm even answering your post!

Your point was that 1080p is not available for download currently. I was merely serving the point that in fact it is, to the best of my knowledge. It was more of criticism of your base than an advocation of piracy.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

How many of these drives would you need to save 875 movies with full features, each at 80GB average? also, how much does each drive cost?

Why did you change from 20-50gb to 80 gb? I pointed out that 1tb externals can be currently had for a little over 200$. Prices will decrease and sizes will increase in the future. I daresay, hd capacity will increase more than bd capacity in the future. Not by a percentage of course, but by raw numbers.

Originally Posted by superdynamite

Right, physical ownership wins. That is why digital DL's have their place. right next to PPV.

I agree that this is the status quo for the near future.

[superdynamite]

Originally Posted by mightypen

...
I agree that this is the status quo for the near future.

Mighty,

Do you think D DL movies will replace Disc Media?

Thanks, Super!

[mightypen]

Originally Posted by Scapp70

I understand what you're saying Mighty, but while Superdynamite dealt with mostly facts, your rebuttal was almost all your theory or your opinion. You try to pick apart his article with your opinion, not based on facts.
I don't want to come across as harsh, but if there's one thing that gets under my skin, it's a theoretical point of view vs. the hard facts.

Peace,
Scapp70

No, you aren't harsh at all. I don't mind constructive criticisms one bit, Scapp, especially when they are based in reason like yours and not resorting to ad hominems.

I agree with you that speculation of future conditions is just that, speculation. But I think extrapolating current conditions outwards can be just as speculative. Technology will always advance, god willing.

But I will disagree with your assessment that I was purely using my opinion as rebuttal:

MCEs exist currently
downloads exist currently
prices for hard drives will go down
hard drive size will go up
xbox live downloads do not require a user fee

These are what I based my arguments around, at least that was my intention.

[mightypen]

Originally Posted by superdynamite

Mighty,

Do you think D DL movies will replace Disc Media?

Thanks, Super!

No, I don't, not for the near future (meaning 5+ years).

Supplemental, but not surpassing, much like ppv as you said.

I personally prefer to own the physical media and like to feel what I buy in my hands.

I tried to frame my criticisms of your points in a way that was critical, but grounded in some fact, rather than fud, for the purposes of a dialog, and to provide food for thought, again, not to be a jackass.




I love my blurays, but I also try to be critical and open minded, so please don't take my comments the wrong way.

[superdynamite]

Originally Posted by mightypen

I love my blurays, but I also try to be critical and open minded, so please don't take my comments the wrong way.

I didn't take it the wrong way.


You have to remember, the most important point on why Downloads will never overtake Disc Media is that Home Theaters are not portable so you can't take your downloaded movies to other people's houses.

If your friend has a party, he can say, "Hey, bring over your IPod".

He can't NEVER say, "Hey, bring over your downloaded movies and your entire home theater". (well, he can say it, but you can't do it, is the point)

What he can say is, "Hey, bring over a couple of movies".

That is the main reason why DDLM will never be the main source of media.

[DisneyKrayzie]

great article, it pretty much says a lot of the same stuff I have said in other forums when people say HD downloads will replace Blu-Ray soon. Now I can have a source to back up my statements

[kolasi]

anyone who rather dl a movie instead of having an actual disc is just crazy.

[mightypen]

Originally Posted by superdynamite

You have to remember, the most important point on why Downloads will never overtake Disc Media is that Home Theaters are not portable so you can't take your downloaded movies to other people's houses.

If your friend has a party, he can say, "Hey, bring over your IPod".

He can't NEVER say, "Hey, bring over your downloaded movies and your entire home theater". (well, he can say it, but you can't do it, is the point)

What he can say is, "Hey, bring over a couple of movies".

That is the main reason why DDLM will never be the main source of media.

I haven't watched a movie at a friend's house since I was in college (~10 years ago), so perhaps my pov is a bit different, and I don't foresee myself doing so in the future. I guess I'm just weird in that regard.

[superdynamite]

Originally Posted by kolasi

anyone who rather dl a movie instead of having an actual disc is just crazy.

That's a good point too. I should have added that in the article.

[brent98]

Originally Posted by kolasi

anyone who rather dl a movie instead of having an actual disc is just crazy.

Funny, I have many useless CDs due to scratches, but all my downloaded music works fine. I know I should have taken better care of my CDs (I do take very good care not to scratch my DVDs and BDs), but heck, I can back up the music on my hard drive pretty easily, so theres a good chance I wont lose any of it, even if my hard drive crashes. Besides, most brick and mortar stores have an awful selection, 75% of the music I want isnt sold at places like Best Buy. iTunes and Amazon (and other downloading services) have about 90% of the music I want, and I can get it instantly, whereas my nearest best buy is a 30 minute drive. Also I can take my entire collection with me and play it in a friends car, I cant take my entire CD collection. Theyre just more convenient.

I know you cant compare music and movies right now, since an HD movie is is 20-50 gb, and a music download is under 10 mb, but heck, when comparing the tech today with the stuff 10-15 years ago we have come very far, my Blackberry has four times as much storage space on its microSD card than the PC my family bought 12 years ago (the internet is faster too). Personal media players continue to increase in size, it may be 10-15 years before theyre big enough to hold a library of HD content, but I think it will happen. I can envision a time when we can buy movies, download them, load them on a personal media player and take them anywhere we want. The storage capacity of hard drives and bandwidth will have to increase dramatically, but it will. To say its going to happen SOON is foolish, but to say it wont happen is equally foolish.

Of course, digital downloads are not the solution now, they probably wont be the solution in 5 years, maybe not even in 10, but I think it will catch on. The technology is out there, Apple, Microsoft, and others have simple versions of it, and while it isnt big yet, this is just the beginning, for now I'll stick with Blu-Ray because it is the best technology available today, but that wont always be the case.

[superdynamite]

Originally Posted by brent98

Also I can take my entire collection with me and play it in a friends car, I cant take my entire CD collection. Theyre just more convenient.

Wow, that's great.

Do you have a portable Home Theater set up too?

Just because you play street hockey with your CDs and can bring your MP3 player in your car doesn't have any bearing on anything that's in this post. Actually, it's the exact opposite.

Did you even read the article? Go to the first post. Then you can edit your post.

Thanks, Super!

[brent98]

Originally Posted by superdynamite

Wow, that's great.

Do you have a portable Home Theater set up too?

Just because you play street hockey with your CDs and can bring your MP3 player in your car doesn't have any bearing on anything that's in this post. Actually, it's the exact opposite.

Thankfully most of those cds are crap I wouldnt want to listen to any more, but disc media is no more permanent than DLs, if you dont back up your DLs you lose them just like not taking care of your disc's.

Well, for the time being I there are no real portable HD movie players. I said that kind of technology is many years off and I do not dl movies or watch ppv for that matter. Thats why I use blu-ray. But I think DDs are the future, and I do look forward to a future without discs. Sorry about the misunderstanding, Im looking years off into the future, and youre talking present day.