Is M$ playing the industry? - Blu-ray Forum

CptGreedle · 08-21-2007, 04:22 PM

As I've heard people say before, Micro$oft has little to gain from HD-DVD sales, they make their dough with direct downloads via XBOX 360 live.
I do not doubt that this may be their agenda, but another thought occurs to me.
First we hear Spielberg decides to keep his films Blu-ray. Then we see Paramount's Blu-rays get "delayed" indefinitely. Now we see Paramount go HD-DVD exclusive with an M$ deal. And now rumors that Universal may switch to neutral.

Coincidence? Perhaps. But I think there is more to it. Usually rumors of such events happen within the industry faster than outside it, and it may be that the winds of change were blowing at caught the ears of some of the big names.

Spielberg may have suspected, after all he chose not to release his films on HD-DVD with universal and now his films are exempt from the Paramount payoff. But either way he made sure his films would not be released on HD-DVD. Michael Bay's decision seems completely reactionary, I doubt he knew anything before or he would have done something sooner.
What I think happened is Micro$oft got word that the only major supporter for HD-DVD, being Universal, was thinking of finally backing out, or at least they saw that the industry's trend to support Blu-ray in sales would finally overcome Universal and they would not be able to last another year as HD-DVD exclusive and would have to go neutral. This would kill the format (which they support), and end the war, (a war which is good for their download business). So Micro$oft made a desperate move to keep the format alive longer, through 2 holiday seasons, by paying off another neutral studio. Warner was obviously very Pro-neutral, even going so far as planning to release a format friendly disc next year that will run on both players. The biggest and obvious choice was Paramount, which was already pro-HD-DVD once before. By paying them off, they make sure that if Universal DOES go neutral, there is at least one studio still supporting HD-DVD that is bound by contract to do so. That will keep the war going. That will keep their business growing in the background.
Meanwhile FOX and MGM release their titles which balance the playing field of the war and once again keep Blu-ray stronger, but at the loss of Paramount. Their announcement seems to have been well timed, perhaps too well. He have been waiting for this for weeks and only now do they announce it? I think it was planned that they would do this as a reaction to Paramount.
Either way, M$ wins! If HD-DVD wins out, M$ backed HD-DVD, M$ will get the dough. If they both fail, M$ has made a killing from downloads. If Blu-ray wins, M$ will have delayed the victory by another year and made head way to fight the format n their own!

This is all speculation since Universal has made no such announcement yet, but those rumors had to start somewhere...

Deane Johnson · 08-21-2007, 04:55 PM

One thing you can be absolutely certain of and that's the fact that Microsoft will be absolutely ruthless in pursuing it's own financial interests. They care not about any individual, nor about any company except their own. And, they certainly do not care about any consumer except those who are giving their money to Microsoft, then they think only about the money part.

If Microsoft has indeed thrown $150 million into the pot, you can be sure they intend to get it back many times.

If anyone thinks Microsoft is a "good citizen", it would be worth their while to think again.

WickyWoo · 08-21-2007, 05:06 PM

Quote:

If Microsoft has indeed thrown $150 million into the pot, you can be sure they intend to get it back many times.

It's desperation, I think it's more that they're tossing in another $150 mill after the probably $500 they've thrown in before, knowing that this is their last chance to save the ship

jermwhl · 08-21-2007, 05:07 PM

And 150M to microsoft is nothing! Spare change. They don't care if they get that money back....it's like one of us throwing a penny into a wishing well.

scott1256ca · 08-21-2007, 05:14 PM

Spielberg has not said he will only release in BD. He has indicated (via Levy) that he wishes that when his movies are released in HD, that BD be included (which will likely result in HD DVD releases also).

I think this deal takes a lot of pressure off Universal, and they will NOT be going neutral any time soon. This marginalizes sales on HD and since there won't be a ton of money to be made in HD, there is no big pressure to go exclusive or go neutral (depending on where you already are).

M$ can continue to buy off studios in this manner, since they have a warchest that the BDA will be unable to match. Toshiba won't complain much because they continue to rack up royalties for dvd.

Sucks to be us. Congrats to M$ and Paramount for reducing the value of my investment in HD media.

partridge · 08-21-2007, 05:28 PM

Paramounts decision only helps to maintain Universals stance. If not for this HD-DVD deal, I believe Universal would have buckled. As it is the format war will continue far longer than necessary. The only thing to save it might be that during 2008 sales of blu-ray movies exceed HD-DVD so much that the entire HD-DVD consortium throws in the towel.

I hope that's what happens. It's just so damn irritating to see this pointless format war dragged out like this.

I can say one thing though; outside the US I just can't see HD-DVD getting any kind of market hold, PS3 is by far the dominant blu-ray player outside America and I see evidence of this online and in retail. Play.com has a tiny stock of HD-DVD titles and shops like HMV have a blu-ray section that is three times larger than the HD-DVD one, Woolworths only sell blu-ray and rental outlets near me only stock blu-ray.

The rest of the world is already blu, but America is such a huge battleground it's gonna take some mega blu-ray titles and mega sales to kick HD-DVD into touch once and for all. I hope by the end of 2008 HD-DVD is gone. Then we can get on with moving into HD movies 100%

CptGreedle · 08-21-2007, 05:47 PM

This is true. And it only further builds my argument. If Paramount's presence helps secures Universal's exclusivity with HD-DVD, than M$ has achieved their goal of fortifying HD-DVD if for no other reason to extend the war!
As for Spielberg, you are right, I misread his official announcement. But it also said "Steven is a big fan of Blu-ray".
So whether or not he is, the fact remains that none of his titles have HD-DVD dates.

I do not think that this will affect International or even US results. Blu-ray is strong and not because of Paramount (which has very few titles out on Blu-ray right now).

w_tanoto · 08-22-2007, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partridge

Paramounts decision only helps to maintain Universals stance. If not for this HD-DVD deal, I believe Universal would have buckled. As it is the format war will continue far longer than necessary. The only thing to save it might be that during 2008 sales of blu-ray movies exceed HD-DVD so much that the entire HD-DVD consortium throws in the towel.

I hope that's what happens. It's just so damn irritating to see this pointless format war dragged out like this.

I can say one thing though; outside the US I just can't see HD-DVD getting any kind of market hold, PS3 is by far the dominant blu-ray player outside America and I see evidence of this online and in retail. Play.com has a tiny stock of HD-DVD titles and shops like HMV have a blu-ray section that is three times larger than the HD-DVD one, Woolworths only sell blu-ray and rental outlets near me only stock blu-ray.

The rest of the world is already blu, but America is such a huge battleground it's gonna take some mega blu-ray titles and mega sales to kick HD-DVD into touch once and for all. I hope by the end of 2008 HD-DVD is gone. Then we can get on with moving into HD movies 100%

ENGLAND is definitely already blu.
Here's why:
January 2007 -- Got my PS3 a month before in Indonesia. Visited both HMV in Hatfield and in London. Both had disappointing selection of Blu-ray, while a lot for HD DVD. It's like 3.5 out of 5 rack is full of HD DVD. I cancel my intention to purchase BD that time
March 2007 -- visited HMV Hatfield, more blu-ray selection, but they still lost to HD DVD. Purchased my first BD: Rumour has it.
April 2007/May 2007 - The whole rack is filled with BD, while HD DVD is given a small rack made of box, previously used to display BD cases.

partridge · 08-22-2007, 01:17 PM

Two other things occurred to me; firstly that the HD-DVD consortium are clearly aware of their failing format if they can only coerce a company to go exclusive by throwing $150m at them - I very much doubt Paramount would have made this switch if they hadn't been given a cash incentive.

Secondly, for the average buyer out there they wont even know that Paramount is HD-DVD only for the time being, I mean how many people care which studio releases a movie? It means something to us because we realise the impact it makes on the format war, but for your average shopper that has a PS3 for instance, they will just look at the blu-ray rack and go for whatever they like the look of, if they don't see what they wanted I dare say they will pick it up on DVD. I can't believe for a moment that this 18 month purchase of Paramount titles will cause anyone to rush out and buy an HD-DVD player.

I'll buy Transformers on DVD, and pick up the deluxe blu-ray version around Christmas '08. That's assuming that HD-DVD hasn't died beforehand making this deal null and void.

jedisinclair · 08-22-2007, 02:38 PM

[QUOTE=Deane Johnson;173836]One thing you can be absolutely certain of and that's the fact that Microsoft will be absolutely ruthless in pursuing it's own financial interests. They care not about any individual, nor about any company except their own. And, they certainly do not care about any consumer except those who are giving their money to Microsoft, then they think only about the money part.

Exactly... which is why I'm the proud owner of a new iMac and MS can smooch by big white arse!

CptGreedle · 08-22-2007, 02:48 PM

Quote:

I'll buy Transformers on DVD, and pick up the deluxe blu-ray version around Christmas '08. That's assuming that HD-DVD hasn't died beforehand making this deal null and void

Try again...
If this deal is indeed for 18 months (there has been some speculation that this may not have a time limit), then it would include the Holiday season 08. In fact, it would end in February 09.
So right now, the best we can hope for is that the 18 month limitation is NOT correct AND that after a few months, Paramount gives into the Blu-ray wave again and starts release to Blu-ray again in time for Christmas '08. Doubtful... but we'll see.

w_tanoto · 08-22-2007, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

Try again...
If this deal is indeed for 18 months (there has been some speculation that this may not have a time limit), then it would include the Holiday season 08. In fact, it would end in February 09.
So right now, the best we can hope for is that the 18 month limitation is NOT correct AND that after a few months, Paramount gives into the Blu-ray wave again and starts release to Blu-ray again in time for Christmas '08. Doubtful... but we'll see.

it'll happen if HD DUD is died. The way to make it die quicker is to avoid any HD DVD products, and keep buying BD

CptGreedle · 08-22-2007, 03:08 PM

Well since I indeed do not buy HD-DVD and will even avoid DVDs if I can, Blu-rays are my main movie purchases now.
I have to be careful not to overspend but since Paramount is not going to recall OR resupply their existing Blu-rays, I have to buy them now.

08-21-2007, 04:22 PM	#1
CptGreedle Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Sworn super-hero now services Atlanta (and suburbs). Blu-ray collection:128 Blu-ray reviews:5	Is M$ playing the industry? As I've heard people say before, Micro$oft has little to gain from HD-DVD sales, they make their dough with direct downloads via XBOX 360 live. I do not doubt that this may be their agenda, but another thought occurs to me. First we hear Spielberg decides to keep his films Blu-ray. Then we see Paramount's Blu-rays get "delayed" indefinitely. Now we see Paramount go HD-DVD exclusive with an M$ deal. And now rumors that Universal may switch to neutral. Coincidence? Perhaps. But I think there is more to it. Usually rumors of such events happen within the industry faster than outside it, and it may be that the winds of change were blowing at caught the ears of some of the big names. Spielberg may have suspected, after all he chose not to release his films on HD-DVD with universal and now his films are exempt from the Paramount payoff. But either way he made sure his films would not be released on HD-DVD. Michael Bay's decision seems completely reactionary, I doubt he knew anything before or he would have done something sooner. What I think happened is Micro$oft got word that the only major supporter for HD-DVD, being Universal, was thinking of finally backing out, or at least they saw that the industry's trend to support Blu-ray in sales would finally overcome Universal and they would not be able to last another year as HD-DVD exclusive and would have to go neutral. This would kill the format (which they support), and end the war, (a war which is good for their download business). So Micro$oft made a desperate move to keep the format alive longer, through 2 holiday seasons, by paying off another neutral studio. Warner was obviously very Pro-neutral, even going so far as planning to release a format friendly disc next year that will run on both players. The biggest and obvious choice was Paramount, which was already pro-HD-DVD once before. By paying them off, they make sure that if Universal DOES go neutral, there is at least one studio still supporting HD-DVD that is bound by contract to do so. That will keep the war going. That will keep their business growing in the background. Meanwhile FOX and MGM release their titles which balance the playing field of the war and once again keep Blu-ray stronger, but at the loss of Paramount. Their announcement seems to have been well timed, perhaps too well. He have been waiting for this for weeks and only now do they announce it? I think it was planned that they would do this as a reaction to Paramount. Either way, M$ wins! If HD-DVD wins out, M$ backed HD-DVD, M$ will get the dough. If they both fail, M$ has made a killing from downloads. If Blu-ray wins, M$ will have delayed the victory by another year and made head way to fight the format n their own! This is all speculation since Universal has made no such announcement yet, but those rumors had to start somewhere...

08-21-2007, 05:28 PM	#6
partridge Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Oct 2005 Location:England	Paramounts decision only helps to maintain Universals stance. If not for this HD-DVD deal, I believe Universal would have buckled. As it is the format war will continue far longer than necessary. The only thing to save it might be that during 2008 sales of blu-ray movies exceed HD-DVD so much that the entire HD-DVD consortium throws in the towel. I hope that's what happens. It's just so damn irritating to see this pointless format war dragged out like this. I can say one thing though; outside the US I just can't see HD-DVD getting any kind of market hold, PS3 is by far the dominant blu-ray player outside America and I see evidence of this online and in retail. Play.com has a tiny stock of HD-DVD titles and shops like HMV have a blu-ray section that is three times larger than the HD-DVD one, Woolworths only sell blu-ray and rental outlets near me only stock blu-ray. The rest of the world is already blu, but America is such a huge battleground it's gonna take some mega blu-ray titles and mega sales to kick HD-DVD into touch once and for all. I hope by the end of 2008 HD-DVD is gone. Then we can get on with moving into HD movies 100% Last edited by partridge; 08-21-2007 at 05:30 PM.

Similar Threads
thread	Forum	Thread Starter	Replies	Last Post
LG Following Pioneer Out Of Plasma TV Industry?	Plasma TVs	Maximus	1	02-27-2009 11:43 AM
Who is the industry leader in BD?	Blu-ray Movies - North America	Quinlan	33	12-04-2008 01:22 AM
What is this new microchip that may be used by the music industry instead of BD?	Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology	AlexKx	68	10-14-2008 06:48 PM
Industry Behind Blu-ray	Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology	Blu Titan	31	09-19-2008 01:47 AM

08-21-2007, 04:55 PM	#2
Deane Johnson Active Member Member since:Nov 2006 Location:Omaha, NE	One thing you can be absolutely certain of and that's the fact that Microsoft will be absolutely ruthless in pursuing it's own financial interests. They care not about any individual, nor about any company except their own. And, they certainly do not care about any consumer except those who are giving their money to Microsoft, then they think only about the money part. If Microsoft has indeed thrown $150 million into the pot, you can be sure they intend to get it back many times. If anyone thinks Microsoft is a "good citizen", it would be worth their while to think again.

08-21-2007, 05:07 PM	#4
jermwhl Special Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:Virginia	And 150M to microsoft is nothing! Spare change. They don't care if they get that money back....it's like one of us throwing a penny into a wishing well.

08-21-2007, 05:14 PM	#5
scott1256ca Active Member Member since:Oct 2006	Spielberg has not said he will only release in BD. He has indicated (via Levy) that he wishes that when his movies are released in HD, that BD be included (which will likely result in HD DVD releases also). I think this deal takes a lot of pressure off Universal, and they will NOT be going neutral any time soon. This marginalizes sales on HD and since there won't be a ton of money to be made in HD, there is no big pressure to go exclusive or go neutral (depending on where you already are). M$ can continue to buy off studios in this manner, since they have a warchest that the BDA will be unable to match. Toshiba won't complain much because they continue to rack up royalties for dvd. Sucks to be us. Congrats to M$ and Paramount for reducing the value of my investment in HD media.

08-21-2007, 05:47 PM	#7
CptGreedle Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Sworn super-hero now services Atlanta (and suburbs). Blu-ray collection:128 Blu-ray reviews:5	This is true. And it only further builds my argument. If Paramount's presence helps secures Universal's exclusivity with HD-DVD, than M$ has achieved their goal of fortifying HD-DVD if for no other reason to extend the war! As for Spielberg, you are right, I misread his official announcement. But it also said "Steven is a big fan of Blu-ray". So whether or not he is, the fact remains that none of his titles have HD-DVD dates. I do not think that this will affect International or even US results. Blu-ray is strong and not because of Paramount (which has very few titles out on Blu-ray right now).

08-22-2007, 01:17 PM	#9
partridge Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Oct 2005 Location:England	Two other things occurred to me; firstly that the HD-DVD consortium are clearly aware of their failing format if they can only coerce a company to go exclusive by throwing $150m at them - I very much doubt Paramount would have made this switch if they hadn't been given a cash incentive. Secondly, for the average buyer out there they wont even know that Paramount is HD-DVD only for the time being, I mean how many people care which studio releases a movie? It means something to us because we realise the impact it makes on the format war, but for your average shopper that has a PS3 for instance, they will just look at the blu-ray rack and go for whatever they like the look of, if they don't see what they wanted I dare say they will pick it up on DVD. I can't believe for a moment that this 18 month purchase of Paramount titles will cause anyone to rush out and buy an HD-DVD player. I'll buy Transformers on DVD, and pick up the deluxe blu-ray version around Christmas '08. That's assuming that HD-DVD hasn't died beforehand making this deal null and void.

08-22-2007, 02:38 PM	#10
jedisinclair Senior Member Member since:Nov 2006 Blu-ray collection:42 Trading Score:3	[QUOTE=Deane Johnson;173836]One thing you can be absolutely certain of and that's the fact that Microsoft will be absolutely ruthless in pursuing it's own financial interests. They care not about any individual, nor about any company except their own. And, they certainly do not care about any consumer except those who are giving their money to Microsoft, then they think only about the money part. Exactly... which is why I'm the proud owner of a new iMac and MS can smooch by big white arse!

08-22-2007, 03:08 PM	#13
CptGreedle Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Sworn super-hero now services Atlanta (and suburbs). Blu-ray collection:128 Blu-ray reviews:5	Well since I indeed do not buy HD-DVD and will even avoid DVDs if I can, Blu-rays are my main movie purchases now. I have to be careful not to overspend but since Paramount is not going to recall OR resupply their existing Blu-rays, I have to buy them now.

Best Blu-ray Movie Deals