Sales of dual-format new releases

[Grubert]

It has been argued that the sales of exclusive titles don't tell us much about the format war, and that we should look at the relative sales of titles that get released on both formats. This topic covers the sales of new releases that get released simultaneously on both formats.

Initially, I only used the relative sales numbers for the top 10 published in Home Media Magazine. But to supplement that, I have used alternate sources, as described below.

Date      Title                     BD/HD Source
092606  The Lake House              1.27  NV03
103106  Mission Impossible III      0.99  HMM05
110706  Nacho Libre                 1.19  NV03
112806  Ant Bully                   0.62  NV03
        Superman Returns            1.14  HMM05
121206  World Trade Center          1.12  NV03
121906  Lady in the Water           1.05  NV03
013007  The Wicker Man              1.43  NV03
021307  The Departed                1.91  HMM08
022007  Babel                       1.12  HMM08
032707  Happy Feet                  1.65  HMM08
042407  Planet Earth                0.84  HMM08
050107  Dreamgirls                  1.53  NVRW
051507  The Fountain                1.50  NVRW
052207  Flags of Our Fathers        1.39  NVRW
        Letters from Iwo Jima       1.60  HMM08
060507  Norbit                      2.04  NVRW
062607  Black Snake Moan            1.56  NVRW+1
072407  The Host                    2.36  NVRW
073107  300                         1.91  HMM08
        Shooter                     1.71  NVRW
        Imax Blue Planet            2.04  NVRW
080707  Disturbia                   2.04  NVRW
        TMNT                        2.14  NVRW
091807  We Are Marshall             0.84  NVRW
101607  The Reaping                 1.83  NVRW
103007  License to Wed              1.56  NVRW

HMM05: Data by Home Media Magazine as of May 27, 2007
HMM06: Data by Home Media Magazine as of June 24, 2007
HMM08: Data by Home Media Magazine as of August 5, 2007
NV03: Data from Nielsen VideoScan as of March 18, 2007
NVRW: Data based on release week Nielsen VideoScan figures

[Grubert]

Reserved post.

[w_tanoto]

mission impossible is a bit behind for BD, because paramount stop producing BD.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

mission impossible is a bit behind for BD, because paramount stop producing BD.

I think the main reason was that it was released when the installed base for BD was much lower (before the PS3 launched).

Most of the 2007 releases have sold more on BD than HD DVD. The most remarkable exception is Planet Earth, although in recent weeks the trend has reversed and now the BD of PE is outselling the HD DVD. Actually, according to a sales slide shown at a BDA event, the PE ratio is now 0.96:1.

[richard lichtenfelt]

The figures are too old to be considered accurate.
Some of those stats go back 8 mos.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

The figures are too old to be considered accurate.

True. But you know, beggars can't be choosers. And in the absence of a full Nielsen sales tracking report, this as good as we get.

[docjan_uk]

It's a good indicator for the state of dual format releases between March and June of 2007 .

[Maxell]

Only Warner titles can really be used. This week will be a real test because of the Ocean's Trilogy/Ocean's 13 and the recent "$99 A2 sale".

[gand41f]

Thanks Grubert. I didn't realize there are so few dual-format new releases that are released on the same day. One odd thing I noticed that there are three movies that have exactly 2.04 as the ratio. Spooky, I know.

enjoy
gandalf

[richard lichtenfelt]

Wasn't trying to be unappreciative.
This is more up-to-date.
Has the WB sales compared side-by-side by format:
http://www.blu-crew.com/WarnerWars.php
A little too close for comfort. I think the hd dvd forums must really be pushing the sales of Warner titles because the difference was quite a bit greater a couple of weeks ago.

[MarekM]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

Wasn't trying to be unappreciative.
This is more up-to-date.
Has the WB sales compared side-by-side by format:
http://www.blu-crew.com/WarnerWars.php
A little too close for comfort. I think the hd dvd forums must really be pushing the sales of Warner titles because the difference was quite a bit greater as of a couple of weeks ago.

but you can't really use AMAZON ranking to see big picture......, it could give us some info, but what we need are actual SALES...

I think sales of Ocean's Trilogy/Ocean's 13 as mentioned below and Harry Potter sales can give us new view on Warner dual releases..

Marek

[richard lichtenfelt]

Originally Posted by MarekM

but you can't really use AMAZON ranking to see big picture......, it could give us some info, but what we need are actual SALES...

I think sales of Ocean's Trilogy/Ocean's 13 as mentioned below and Harry Potter sales can give us new view on Warner dual releases..

Marek

The proportion should be about the same for Amazon as it would be any where else that sells both formats. The BOGO for Transformers week was also at the major retailers. This BOGO isn't on that list which was last updated on Oct. 29.
Admittedly its not perfect, but it is recent and amazon.com is the second largest seller of hd discs:
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/12...d-media-sales/

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

The proportion should be about the same for Amazon as it would be any where else that sells both formats.

The problem is that amazon rankings are very unreliable. We have a lot of precedents for titles doing better than others on amazon but eventually losing less in the gauge that matters (Nielsen VideoScan).

We should prefer to have an old, yet accurate stat rather than a current, yet inaccurate one.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

mission impossible is a bit behind for BD, because paramount stop producing BD.

Plus is only had DD audio. I stopped buying any BD release without some sort of lossless audio.

[richard lichtenfelt]

How can you include 8 month old stats? Blu-ray catalog titles have sold better over time than hd dvd's. Blu-ray has only been on the market for 16 months, some of your stats go back to the 1/2 way point for blu-rays existence. The amount of players on the market was substantially different and favored hd dvd since it was released earlier.
How do you know that amazon #'s don't match up favorably to Neilson's? I've never seen the math on that. Amazon is the second largest seller of both hd formats: http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/12...d-media-sales/
I am not attacking you. I just think that in a format war that's been going on for less than a year and a half, even data a few months old is outdated.
Warner Brothers said that they would be focusing on 4th quarter sales which means Oct., Nov., and Dec. In regards to WB we should find a way to focus on the sales from last month till the end of the year.

[Imakida]

It's hard to keep up ($$) with all the excellent exclusive titles on blu-ray!

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by Grubert

The problem is that amazon rankings are very unreliable. We have a lot of precedents for titles doing better than others on amazon but eventually losing less in the gauge that matters (Nielsen VideoScan).

We should prefer to have an old, yet accurate stat rather than a current, yet inaccurate one.

Given the 'overall' 'lower' units (compared to other titles) of P.E., outside of special promotions that allows one to get a box of PE for a good price/free, amazon is selling a larger proportion of P.E. compared to their normal titles.

P.E., is significantly more pricey in the canadian B&M retailes, going for $88 instead of the much lower price on amazon. Yet, we have had P.E., in the top 100 for a long time.

In ratios, P.E. stands out, but in actual unit sales, it pales next to the 300s, spideys, CRs and TFs.

Harry Potter should be a good one to see. The boxsets for one is an irresistible bundle for the family oriented with young teens as a focus, a slightly different key market than the pixar movies, but still a big one people want to gauge.

---

AVS no longer tolerates nielsen or disk sales numbers. It's unfortunate, but that's what happens when people want to use sales statistics as a weapon in the propaganda war. While the nielsen weekly sales numbers are cheering on the blu side, it seriously cramps the message by the minions that the tide is turning.

For any tide to turn, the only final gauge that matters --- the disks selling every week has to follow the rhetoric, and weeks of sales numbers like these is the best evidence that not only are the volumes of disks are still very small, but the installed base of players (even after some big sale) are still a small fraction where they need to be to show increases in the disks being bought.

I tend to agree with the bought journalists that pontificate about disks sales still being slow, but I also noted that they cheered about player sales, without noting also that the player sales are so pathetic that it makes the disk sales actually look good, which is no mean feat.

That's how you know a journalist is bought.

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by Neo65

I tend to agree with the bought journalists that pontificate about disks sales still being slow, but I also noted that they cheered about player sales, without noting also that the player sales are so pathetic that it makes the disk sales actually look good, which is no mean feat.

That's how you know a journalist is bought.

The sad thing is that they probably came at a really low price.

[Grubert]

Per homemediamagazine and my calculations, Ocean's 13 was 1.49:1.

But I'll wait for the actual N/VS figures to be posted before updating the chart.

[Dalese]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

The figures are too old to be considered accurate.
Some of those stats go back 8 mos.

But it's still an interesting snapshot showing the sales ratio numbers when Blu-ray players were limited to the higher price introductory models and PS3s vs. HD-DVD players that were offering all sorts of free movie deals at half the cost.

Didn't one of the September HMM listed unit year-to-date sales for the top 25-50 movies through August?