High Definition discs or download movies - Blu-ray Forum

richard lichtenfelt · 01-08-2008, 05:07 AM

Some people think that download movies are a direct threat to blu-ray.
I tend to think of download movies as a rental option, and therefore more in competition with Blockbuster, Netflix, etc.

Many people have collected 100+ hd movies in less than a year. At an average of 35gb per movie a 100 title collection would = 3500gb. Are people going to be willing to purchase a 7000gb set top box to hold their collection and still have room to grow?

Hard drives have an anticipated life of 5 years. Can you imagine trying to re-download a collection of hd movies if hard drive failure occured?
I imagine it would be a DRM nightmare trying to move movies between drives.

It seems as though downloads will only work as rentals, and dvd sales have co-existed with rental options all along.

I live in an affluent area of Houston, the fourth largest city in America, and fiber optics isn't even available in my area. Downloading a hd movie would take a day. If there was a glitch, would I have to wait another day for it to download again?

I just can't see download movies being much of a factor.
What do you think?

krispyjala · 01-08-2008, 05:13 AM

It will be, in about 10 years, when everyone has a fiber pipe to their homes. Until then, I'll get my HD fix elsewhere, thank you very much.

Ex Accountant · 01-08-2008, 05:15 AM

I'm with you. The possibility of downloads as a viable replacement for blu-ray/hd-dvd seems extremely minute at this time. Maybe in 10 years?

quetzalcoatl · 01-08-2008, 05:15 AM

Richard this poll need to be changed. Since I cannot say I am not interested but that will be in about 5 years when I can have something faster than my 10Mbps connection.

richard lichtenfelt · 01-08-2008, 05:17 AM

You have a good point, but I don't think that I can edit the poll.

rigpig · 01-08-2008, 05:19 AM

...well technically you wouldn't if you got it from usenet or somesuch, since they are posted in let's say 100mb or 200mb chunks w/ PAR archives so you could have data errors & repair 'em with the PARS. Just as an example. But yeah i think you answered your own 'poll' & know what the outcome is.....the entire concept of d/l replacing disc delivered highdef is pure unmitigated bollocks for the reasons you indicated. The infrastructure ain't there & long term magnetic storage is a temporary solution at best.
When the infrastructure is there.....30-50mbit dsl for everyone with no bandwidth caps from provider (yeah right), then the next iteration of 'beyond-hd' ...8000x4000 lines whatever, half a terabyte per movie etc....oh right we'll just whip up a quick d/l of those too while we're at it.

quetzalcoatl · 01-08-2008, 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

You have a good point, but I don't think that I can edit the poll.

Guess you could just edit the last line or two with this.
In the Blu-ray DVD fight about to begin?
Since we know that will start in the next few weeks and should last a few years say around 3-5.

cartier · 01-08-2008, 05:20 AM

All the talk is about digital downloads not HD Downloads. I want HD content and downloads are not going to provide the features, picture and sound I want in a convenient storage medium.

pizat · 01-08-2008, 05:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krispyjala

It will be, in about 10 years, when everyone has a fiber pipe to their homes. Until then, I'll get my HD fix elsewhere, thank you very much.

10 years?? it will probably be alot longer than that. the cost to run fiber the the home is R I D I C U L O U S!!! maybe around 2025 or so...

davidPS3 · 01-08-2008, 05:23 AM

I agree with the original post here. I think that downloads will be fine for "rental" and not purchases. Maybe sometime way in the future, but not now.

Lou-Cipher · 01-08-2008, 05:24 AM

I think having a movie collection to look at on a shelf is part of the fun of purchasing movies. I also felt that way about cd's, and now I have an mp3 player full of music without that many cd's on the shelf.

richard lichtenfelt · 01-08-2008, 05:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quetzalcoatl

Guess you could just edit the last line or two with this.
In the Blu-ray DVD fight about to begin?
Since we know that will start in the next few weeks and should last a few years say around 3-5.

I like your poll title better, but it won't let me change it now.
Plenty of excellent answers though.

krispyjala · 01-08-2008, 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pizat

10 years?? it will probably be alot longer than that. the cost to run fiber the the home is R I D I C U L O U S!!! maybe around 2025 or so...

Well, Verizon is already starting FIOS and AT&T has already started building out fiber through U-Verse (though yes, not to the premise yet except for new homes). Not really familiar with what the Cable guys are doing, but I heard a rumor of something about 100mbps cxn to homes. So, 10 years might not be too much of a stretch. Remember that 10 years ago, we barely had broadband. I was still playing Starcraft on 56kbps lol.

quetzalcoatl · 01-08-2008, 05:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

I like your poll title better, but it won't let me change it now.
Plenty of excellent answers though.

Just put it in the post with the what do you think?

k20king · 01-08-2008, 05:54 AM

What Happens when internet is down.

It reminds me of when E-Trade went down right before the 1st Rate Fed Funds Rate Cut of this. E-Trade Crashed Right Before the Announcement, Leaving E-Traders in the Dark.

Sucks for customers, Internet is not fool proof.

And...

How the Heck are you going to DL 60 Gigs over the Net?!?!?!?

Hard Copy is the Way to go, Especially for HD Content.

Deacon220 · 01-08-2008, 05:57 AM

I mean come on... the Red camp is going to download movies? Right.. I mean how many movies can they download at 48,800 to their Blue Hippo computers?

quetzalcoatl · 01-08-2008, 06:00 AM

I put this in another thread.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...83&postcount=8

And I have posted in the last few days about the cost of hard drives to add to the thing. And with 750GB hard drives at 50GB a movie it is about $15 per movie if you want to keep it.

richard lichtenfelt · 01-08-2008, 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quetzalcoatl

Just put it in the post with the what do you think?

Title changed. Thanks for the advice.
Nice links too. I found that a 35gb file would take about a day and a half with my connection.

quetzalcoatl · 01-08-2008, 06:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

Title changed. Thanks for the advice.
Nice links too. I found that a 35gb file would take about a day and a half with my connection.

Yet it is the next best thing to sliced bread if you hear them talk.

JohnGalt · 01-08-2008, 06:47 AM

I doubt movie downloads will be much different from VOD. Rather more like a TiVo but with a quick expiration date on the download. Studios will love downloads because they'll see them as recurring revenue streams since you'll only possess a few at a time, won't possess them for more than a few days, and can't possibly transfer them to another owner (who thereby avoids purchasing in the new market from the studio) when you're finished with them. Marketing types are doubtless salivating that the thought of this sort of pay-for-limited-use model as compared to physical media that can be kept forever, loaned out, given away, sold & resold dozens of times, etc.

View Poll Results: Interested in downloading movies?
YES!	8	3.21%
NO!	232	93.17%
Undecided?	9	3.61%
Voters: 249. You may not vote on this poll

01-08-2008, 05:07 AM	#1
richard lichtenfelt Power Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:I'm not drunk, I'm just tired cause I been up all night drinking. Blu-ray reviews:3	High Definition discs or download movies Some people think that download movies are a direct threat to blu-ray. I tend to think of download movies as a rental option, and therefore more in competition with Blockbuster, Netflix, etc. Many people have collected 100+ hd movies in less than a year. At an average of 35gb per movie a 100 title collection would = 3500gb. Are people going to be willing to purchase a 7000gb set top box to hold their collection and still have room to grow? Hard drives have an anticipated life of 5 years. Can you imagine trying to re-download a collection of hd movies if hard drive failure occured? I imagine it would be a DRM nightmare trying to move movies between drives. It seems as though downloads will only work as rentals, and dvd sales have co-existed with rental options all along. I live in an affluent area of Houston, the fourth largest city in America, and fiber optics isn't even available in my area. Downloading a hd movie would take a day. If there was a glitch, would I have to wait another day for it to download again? I just can't see download movies being much of a factor. What do you think? Last edited by richard lichtenfelt; 01-08-2008 at 06:10 AM.

01-08-2008, 05:54 AM	#15
k20king Senior Member Member since:Feb 2007	What Happens when internet is down. It reminds me of when E-Trade went down right before the 1st Rate Fed Funds Rate Cut of this. E-Trade Crashed Right Before the Announcement, Leaving E-Traders in the Dark. Sucks for customers, Internet is not fool proof. And... How the Heck are you going to DL 60 Gigs over the Net?!?!?!? Hard Copy is the Way to go, Especially for HD Content. Last edited by k20king; 01-08-2008 at 07:06 PM.

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01-08-2008, 05:13 AM	#2
krispyjala Active Member Member since:Dec 2007 Location:Fremont, CA	It will be, in about 10 years, when everyone has a fiber pipe to their homes. Until then, I'll get my HD fix elsewhere, thank you very much.

01-08-2008, 05:15 AM	#3
Ex Accountant Special Member Member since:Feb 2007 Trading Score:54	I'm with you. The possibility of downloads as a viable replacement for blu-ray/hd-dvd seems extremely minute at this time. Maybe in 10 years?

01-08-2008, 05:15 AM	#4
quetzalcoatl Special Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Grants Pass, OR	Richard this poll need to be changed. Since I cannot say I am not interested but that will be in about 5 years when I can have something faster than my 10Mbps connection.

01-08-2008, 05:17 AM	#5
richard lichtenfelt Power Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:I'm not drunk, I'm just tired cause I been up all night drinking. Blu-ray reviews:3	You have a good point, but I don't think that I can edit the poll.

01-08-2008, 05:19 AM	#6
rigpig Member Member since:Nov 2007 Location:Alberta Blu-ray reviews:3	...well technically you wouldn't if you got it from usenet or somesuch, since they are posted in let's say 100mb or 200mb chunks w/ PAR archives so you could have data errors & repair 'em with the PARS. Just as an example. But yeah i think you answered your own 'poll' & know what the outcome is.....the entire concept of d/l replacing disc delivered highdef is pure unmitigated bollocks for the reasons you indicated. The infrastructure ain't there & long term magnetic storage is a temporary solution at best. When the infrastructure is there.....30-50mbit dsl for everyone with no bandwidth caps from provider (yeah right), then the next iteration of 'beyond-hd' ...8000x4000 lines whatever, half a terabyte per movie etc....oh right we'll just whip up a quick d/l of those too while we're at it.

01-08-2008, 05:20 AM	#8
cartier Expert Member Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Pacific NW	All the talk is about digital downloads not HD Downloads. I want HD content and downloads are not going to provide the features, picture and sound I want in a convenient storage medium.

01-08-2008, 05:23 AM	#10
davidPS3 Special Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Seattle	I agree with the original post here. I think that downloads will be fine for "rental" and not purchases. Maybe sometime way in the future, but not now.

01-08-2008, 05:24 AM	#11
Lou-Cipher Active Member Member since:Jan 2008 Location:New Mexico	I think having a movie collection to look at on a shelf is part of the fun of purchasing movies. I also felt that way about cd's, and now I have an mp3 player full of music without that many cd's on the shelf.

01-08-2008, 05:57 AM	#16
Deacon220 Member Member since:Nov 2007 Location:Dallas, Texas Blu-ray reviews:3	I mean come on... the Red camp is going to download movies? Right.. I mean how many movies can they download at 48,800 to their Blue Hippo computers?

01-08-2008, 06:00 AM	#17
quetzalcoatl Special Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Grants Pass, OR	I put this in another thread. https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...83&postcount=8 And I have posted in the last few days about the cost of hard drives to add to the thing. And with 750GB hard drives at 50GB a movie it is about $15 per movie if you want to keep it.

01-08-2008, 06:47 AM	#20
JohnGalt Senior Member Member since:Sep 2007 Trading Score:4	I doubt movie downloads will be much different from VOD. Rather more like a TiVo but with a quick expiration date on the download. Studios will love downloads because they'll see them as recurring revenue streams since you'll only possess a few at a time, won't possess them for more than a few days, and can't possibly transfer them to another owner (who thereby avoids purchasing in the new market from the studio) when you're finished with them. Marketing types are doubtless salivating that the thought of this sort of pay-for-limited-use model as compared to physical media that can be kept forever, loaned out, given away, sold & resold dozens of times, etc.

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