Bad news for everyone... - Blu-ray Forum

akadkins · 02-08-2007, 04:28 PM

I'm sure it's been noted elsewhere - but I couldn't find a post so I'll start it. Numbers here are ugly - for Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. If there are 2 million PS3's, but only 400,000+ movies sold, then it is hard to back up argument that PS3 owners are buying Blu-ray movies...

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2

I really expected the numbers to be in the millions for each format - based on the idea alone that there would be at least 1 movie sold for every PS3 - heck, most of us here own at least 5 or more titles which makes this even worse.

JTK · 02-08-2007, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by akadkins

I'm sure it's been noted elsewhere - but I couldn't find a post so I'll start it. Numbers here are ugly - for Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. If there are 2 million PS3's, but only 400,000+ movies sold, then it is hard to back up argument that PS3 owners are buying Blu-ray movies...

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2

I really expected the numbers to be in the millions for each format - based on the idea alone that there would be at least 1 movie sold for every PS3 - heck, most of us here own at least 5 or more titles which makes this even worse.

In the millions? Oh heavens no. Your expectations were WAAAAY too high and unrealistic, my friend.

What were the first year or so's numbers like on DVD and laserdisc? Or even VHS for that matter, as a point of perspective?

akadkins · 02-08-2007, 04:36 PM

Too high or unrealistic? Again, I'm just going off idea that Sony and others are trying to promote - that PS3 buyers are doing it for the Blu-Ray technology. Ok - so only 1 in 5 PS3 owners (even less since part of that 400,000 sold goes to stand alone owners) is picking up 1 movie. 1? That won't win any format war.

JTK · 02-08-2007, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by akadkins

Too high or unrealistic? Again, I'm just going off idea that Sony and others are trying to promote - that PS3 buyers are doing it for the Blu-Ray technology. Ok - so only 1 in 5 PS3 owners (even less since part of that 400,000 sold goes to stand alone owners) is picking up 1 movie. 1? That won't win any format war.

These are very typical "first year" numbers.

FWIW, if HD-DVD weren't in the way, propped up by MS, I'm sure the BD numbers would be considerably higher than even now.

thunderhawk · 02-08-2007, 04:40 PM

Misconception: PS3 won't decide the format war by itself.
It's the format itself in the first place.

What if people don't buy a PS3 for Blu-ray in the first place? It doesn't make any difference for BD sales, because BD sales are topping HD DVDs and that, the sales, is the most important in a format war.

DavePS3 · 02-08-2007, 04:41 PM

I've only had my PS3 for 5 weeks and I've bought 22 BD's so far. More next week for sure.

thunderhawk · 02-08-2007, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavePS3

I've only had my PS3 for 5 weeks and I've bought 22 BD's so far. More next week for sure.

Just don't forget BD's there for you, not you for BD.

Amon37 · 02-08-2007, 04:48 PM

I have a better blu-ray attach rate with my PS3 that game attach-rate.

Blu_Ray_UK2007 · 02-08-2007, 04:58 PM

Wait until the PS3 launches here.

mbslrm · 02-08-2007, 05:02 PM

Thats just for bought movies.

What about games on BD, and BDs that are rented?

akadkins · 02-08-2007, 05:03 PM

Europe is the key to the war...a big launch there, with Casino Royale leading the way, should help. But we need a better attach rate...

DavePS3 · 02-08-2007, 05:03 PM

I'm the same as Amon... only 3 games so far to the 22 Blu-Rays. Of course that needs to take into account the very few games for the PS3 so far and the games price points.

Damon Payne · 02-08-2007, 05:27 PM

I've got 6bd and no games yet. I'll have some games as the good ones start coming out and of course as the BD I want as they trickle out. I think I've bought all the BDs I want that are already out.

mrb713 · 02-08-2007, 05:34 PM

Most people haven't made the change from sdtv to hdtv yet for various reasons. Some of these televisions are still quite expensive but, the prices are becoming more affordable everyday. I think once more people (including myself) adopt hi-def sets , this will deffenitly jumpstart bluray disc sales for sure! (By the way I'm getting my Sharp Aquos 42" 1080p lcd in june)

.

BTBuck1 · 02-08-2007, 05:37 PM

Everyone I know has atleast 3x as many BD movies as they do games at this point.

ProvenFlipper · 02-08-2007, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BTBuck1

Everyone I know has atleast 3x as many BD movies as they do games at this point.

We aren't even going to talk about our ratios...

I think I'm like 25:1

BTBuck1 · 02-08-2007, 05:45 PM

I'm 68:1 cus i only have resistance'

powerSURG · 02-08-2007, 05:53 PM

12:1. (not counting gamefly and netflix)

bluearth · 02-08-2007, 05:55 PM

I'm one of the PS3 owners who have only picked up one BD, Superman Returns

But I have plans to buy SpiderMan 3, Both Pirate movies, Casino Royale, Ice Age 2, Chicken Little and many more.

I estimate most PS3 owners will be like me and buy 5-15 blu-ray movies before the year is out and even moreso if it (bluray) had a deeper back catalog. I just can't see why PS3 owners would buy SD only, even if they have 480i televisions.

Takes time.

But lets say just 1 in 4 people who buy a PS3 buy a BD. PS3 may sell 8 million consoles before 2008. That's 2 million BDs sold, and thats if just 1 out of 4 PS3 owners buy just 1 BD for an entire year...highly unlikely.

Not to mention there will be WAY better movies available as we move deeper into the year coupled with the fact alot of PS3 owners will upgrade to a high definition TV, another reason why some may not be buying BDs yet. Not time to panic but time to celebrate

dialog_gvf · 02-08-2007, 05:58 PM

I have two games (one an Xmas present). And about 30 discs (+ 20 rentals) at this point.

I very much expect anyone with an interest in movies to always be ahead of game purchases. A game is an longer term immersive experience versus the few hours of fun from a disc. And a game costs 2-3x the movie disc.

Sony is probably talking about sell-through to consumer. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 4x the number of sell throughs are warehoused. Otherwise they'd have to be thinking of doing a bunch of new runs already.

If the numbers are accurate, how many HD DVD players are there if they are claiming a big attach rate?

02-08-2007, 04:28 PM	#1
akadkins Senior Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:San Diego, CA Blu-ray collection:2 Trading Score:2	Bad news for everyone... I'm sure it's been noted elsewhere - but I couldn't find a post so I'll start it. Numbers here are ugly - for Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. If there are 2 million PS3's, but only 400,000+ movies sold, then it is hard to back up argument that PS3 owners are buying Blu-ray movies... http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4698&Itemid=2 I really expected the numbers to be in the millions for each format - based on the idea alone that there would be at least 1 movie sold for every PS3 - heck, most of us here own at least 5 or more titles which makes this even worse.

02-08-2007, 05:34 PM	#14
mrb713 Active Member Member since:Feb 2006	SDTV/HDTV transision Most people haven't made the change from sdtv to hdtv yet for various reasons. Some of these televisions are still quite expensive but, the prices are becoming more affordable everyday. I think once more people (including myself) adopt hi-def sets , this will deffenitly jumpstart bluray disc sales for sure! (By the way I'm getting my Sharp Aquos 42" 1080p lcd in june) .

02-08-2007, 05:55 PM	#19
bluearth Blu-ray Guru Member since:Feb 2007 Blu-ray collection:92 Blu-ray reviews:2	I'm one of the PS3 owners who have only picked up one BD, Superman Returns But I have plans to buy SpiderMan 3, Both Pirate movies, Casino Royale, Ice Age 2, Chicken Little and many more. I estimate most PS3 owners will be like me and buy 5-15 blu-ray movies before the year is out and even moreso if it (bluray) had a deeper back catalog. I just can't see why PS3 owners would buy SD only, even if they have 480i televisions. Takes time. But lets say just 1 in 4 people who buy a PS3 buy a BD. PS3 may sell 8 million consoles before 2008. That's 2 million BDs sold, and thats if just 1 out of 4 PS3 owners buy just 1 BD for an entire year...highly unlikely. Not to mention there will be WAY better movies available as we move deeper into the year coupled with the fact alot of PS3 owners will upgrade to a high definition TV, another reason why some may not be buying BDs yet. Not time to panic but time to celebrate Last edited by bluearth; 02-08-2007 at 06:02 PM.

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02-08-2007, 04:36 PM	#3
akadkins Senior Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:San Diego, CA Blu-ray collection:2 Trading Score:2	Too high or unrealistic? Again, I'm just going off idea that Sony and others are trying to promote - that PS3 buyers are doing it for the Blu-Ray technology. Ok - so only 1 in 5 PS3 owners (even less since part of that 400,000 sold goes to stand alone owners) is picking up 1 movie. 1? That won't win any format war.

02-08-2007, 04:40 PM	#5
thunderhawk Moderator Member since:Jul 2004 Location:Belgium	Misconception: PS3 won't decide the format war by itself. It's the format itself in the first place. What if people don't buy a PS3 for Blu-ray in the first place? It doesn't make any difference for BD sales, because BD sales are topping HD DVDs and that, the sales, is the most important in a format war.

02-08-2007, 04:41 PM	#6
DavePS3 Blu-ray Guru Member since:Jan 2007 Location:Toronto Home Theater Gallery:56 Blu-ray reviews:1 Trading Score:1	I've only had my PS3 for 5 weeks and I've bought 22 BD's so far. More next week for sure.

02-08-2007, 04:48 PM	#8
Amon37 Power Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:USA,Arizona PSNetwork: Amon37	I have a better blu-ray attach rate with my PS3 that game attach-rate.

02-08-2007, 04:58 PM	#9
Blu_Ray_UK2007 Blu-ray Samurai Top contributor Member since:Feb 2007 Location:UK 4K collection:164 Blu-ray collection:782 Trading Score:1	Wait until the PS3 launches here.

02-08-2007, 05:02 PM	#10
mbslrm Active Member Member since:Dec 2006 Location:Mississauga, ON	Thats just for bought movies. What about games on BD, and BDs that are rented?

02-08-2007, 05:03 PM	#11
akadkins Senior Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:San Diego, CA Blu-ray collection:2 Trading Score:2	Europe is the key to the war...a big launch there, with Casino Royale leading the way, should help. But we need a better attach rate...

02-08-2007, 05:27 PM	#13
Damon Payne Active Member Member since:Oct 2006 Location:Wisconsin	I've got 6bd and no games yet. I'll have some games as the good ones start coming out and of course as the BD I want as they trickle out. I think I've bought all the BDs I want that are already out.

02-08-2007, 05:37 PM	#15
BTBuck1 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jun 2006 Location:Oceanside, CA. Blu-ray collection:507 DVD collection:1	Everyone I know has atleast 3x as many BD movies as they do games at this point.

02-08-2007, 05:45 PM	#17
BTBuck1 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jun 2006 Location:Oceanside, CA. Blu-ray collection:507 DVD collection:1	I'm 68:1 cus i only have resistance'

02-08-2007, 05:53 PM	#18
powerSURG Active Member Member since:Jan 2007 Location:Shaw AFB, SC Blu-ray collection:42	12:1. (not counting gamefly and netflix)

02-08-2007, 05:58 PM	#20
dialog_gvf Moderator Member since:Nov 2006 Location:Toronto Blu-ray collection:320	I have two games (one an Xmas present). And about 30 discs (+ 20 rentals) at this point. I very much expect anyone with an interest in movies to always be ahead of game purchases. A game is an longer term immersive experience versus the few hours of fun from a disc. And a game costs 2-3x the movie disc. Sony is probably talking about sell-through to consumer. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 4x the number of sell throughs are warehoused. Otherwise they'd have to be thinking of doing a bunch of new runs already. If the numbers are accurate, how many HD DVD players are there if they are claiming a big attach rate?

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