Blu Ray destroyed by downloads?

[Antirock]

I listen to a lot of tech podcasts like TWiT and Buzz Out Loud. Whenever Blu Ray comes up as a topic of discussion the usual comments I hear suggest Blu Ray was a dead in the water format. That within a few years everyone will be switching to online downloads and Blu Ray will be dead. Has anyone else heard of this??? How does everyone feel about that?

There are a few reasons why I think this is not going to happen:

First, the movie/music industry has not figured out how to offer online services in an easy and convenient way. iTunes has probably come the closest to offering decent looking video in their store. Still in order to get that picture on your television you either have to get an AppleTv or transfer to a different codec and if you have a PS3 you can stream it (with 3rd party software if you are on a Mac.) Which brings us to...

DRM! I don't want to have to go to 4 different services and own 4 different media boxes in order to stream or sync all of my favorite movies. They need to drop DRM all together and change to a business model that gives you the freedom to transfer your collection to your media box (or game console) to your mobile media player (ipod, zune etc...) or to any computer. Until this happens, I don't see the physical format leaving. Last but not least....

Lets say that the industry figures everything out, they are able to offer hi-def downloads and streams, at reasonable prices, non DRMed, and with the same quality as Blu Ray. In this perfect scenario, we would still have the barrier of ISPs capping bandwidth (which true high definition downloads would require a lot) and, believe it or not, there is a huge population of movie lovers that don't have high speed internet!!

So, in short, all of these factors would have to come together in order for a mass industry of high def movie downloads to be successful. I would say we have a good 5-7 years. Until then, I think we are safe with our Blu Rays.

Any thoughts?

[jkwest]

huh....never even heard of downloads...weird...

[Marine Mike]

Originally Posted by jkwest

huh....never even heard of downloads...weird...

+1

Do you need to upload first or something?

[DavePS3]

Here's my view...

Microsoft. That name should send a few shivers up your spine, Billy. Dropping support of any and all of their older product and technology like they just touched an Ebola sample from the CDC, are they really the guys to back on film downloading? Are they worth supporting? They’re like a politician who constantly pulls the rug from under your feet on every issue you trusted them with. Ask anyone who has a Vista upgrade on their PC. HD-DVD was primarily backed by Microsoft as a precursor to downloading and we all know how that turned out but hey, now there’s a new thing! The wave of the foreseeable future and only Microsoft has had the foresight… the wherewithal… the big hairy sack of Kiwis enough to offer you, the hapless minions playing ’follow the blind man’, the newest, the greatest concept known to man. How great they art. Yeah...

Downloading is going to need a lot of bandwidth. It’s going to take a lot of convincing, for the average renter to run out and buy still more equipment. It’s going to take seamless, uninterrupted programs that look and sound as good as a hard disc, with 1080p DTS-MA and a library of titles bigger than what’s on Cinemax that month.

Will all titles be available? Hell no. Will the downloading be split between different services each offering different titles… be time consuming, interrupted, pixelized and full of audio drop-outs? Early reports say yes. Will anyone with a serious system want to bother with this weak attempt at a cash grab? Um… probably not.

The demographic that downloading is more suited to, is the movie renter. The people who go out to Blockbuster to grab a title their kid wants to see despite the terrible reviews. However Microsoft is aiming for the buyers too, the collectors who aren’t about to watch a movie on their computer or keep checking PPV for new films. (Let’s face it, PPV doesn’t do very well for movies. Sporting events are it’s real moneymaker.) Buyer/collectors generally love their great systems. They put a whack of dough into that down time. They want that time spent in front of the screen problem free, with perfect picture and sound and so far, hard disc Blu-Ray is the best way to get that. You can pull the title off your shelf anytime you want it, as many times as you like and it looks as good on the first playing as it does the 200’th for example. Downloading will kill that. Time limits on viewing or hard drive sitting times are being imposed so you’ll have to pay again for another download. Those viewing times, or how long that program stays in your hard drive, say 24 hrs. or 2 viewings within 12 hours and it’s gone, that type of thing, suck the proverbial bag. It’s DivX revisited. Screw that!

It’s a concept that as much as Microsoft is dying for us to jump on, just won’t work in the short or long term. Too much is against it, too much actual reality as opposed to fantasy and although Apple has built a better mousetrap, 29.95 for a new film in 720p D&D with the disc release still means that for the same price, you can buy the 1080p Blu-Ray & keep it.

[PA_Kid]

When downloading the SD Burn Notice Season 1 pilot takes less than the 6 hours it took over my FIOS internet connection, I'll worry.

[quexos]

Would take me quite a while to download the entire Ultimate Matrix Collection in full 1080p plus all the hours of bonuses

[AintNoSin]

The problem is that these tech-savvy pundits think everyone is somehow like them and has their whole house wired for everything. They don't realize that the average joe doesn't even think about wiring up his entertainment center to the internet. For them, the internet is web surfing and e-mail on the computer.

Blu-ray is an extension of an already familiar paradigm. Someday, after prices are down below the $150 mark, the average person's next "DVD" player will be a Blu-ray. They'll keep playing their DVDs and move on up to Blu for new movies.

[personGR]

Well I think it's partially true that blu-ray will be replaced by downloads. Besides many companies support digital distribution, including Sony.

The main problem digital distribution faces, is not lack of downloading speed, but actual space .A high-def movie can take up to 25 gb in your hard space - which is too much.

Anyhow I don't think we should be thinking about blu-ray's future right now, as there are matters far more important...

[theprophecy247]

i have heard of this to but i think its unlikely due to the size and content ud miss out on when dling plus sounds would be an issue also

[kpkelley]

Originally Posted by personGR

Anyhow I don't think we should be thinking about blu-ray's future right now, as there are matters far more important...

BLASPHEMY!!!

Hey, Ricshoe where's that flame emoticon from yesterday?[insert here]

[Bobby Henderson]

I wonder how many times this topic has been raised. The dead horse is really getting beaten flattened cracker-like material by now.

[Antirock]

Originally Posted by AintNoSin

The problem is that these tech-savvy pundits think everyone is somehow like them and has their whole house wired for everything. They don't realize that the average joe doesn't even think about wiring up his entertainment center to the internet. For them, the internet is web surfing and e-mail on the computer.

Blu-ray is an extension of an already familiar paradigm. Someday, after prices are down below the $150 mark, the average person's next "DVD" player will be a Blu-ray. They'll keep playing their DVDs and move on up to Blu for new movies.

Thats a really good point.

[Alkali]

Downloads can't beat discs in the short term future, so no way BluRay will be effected; maybe the next disc format, but not Blu.

I want physical media so no matter what happens to my PC, hard drives, backups or what-the-heck-ever doesnt matter. On top of anything else I enjoy collecting discs so I will never change unless every single manufacturer stopped making discs and everything went on the internet (which, somehow, I doubt). All that really matters is on-demand, rather than pre-downloading (when it comes to a comparitive to discs). Imagine trying to stream a movie in 1080p with a lossless 7.1 track, roughly 55-60Mbps. Thats rather more than will be available for some time to come (I'm refering also to server upload pressure quite apart from customer households probably needing 100Mbit to maintain consistent viewing), so I'm not worried.

[stow123]

id much rather buy media on a disc than download.

[DetroitSportsFan]

Has this subject been discussed here before? Seems like it has a time or two before....

[AintNoSin]

Originally Posted by Alkali

Imagine trying to stream a movie in 1080p with a lossless 7.1 track, roughly 55-60Mbps. Thats rather more than will be available for soem time to come.

Especially with ISPs talking about capping and metering bandwidth, rather than giving us in the good ol' U.S. of A the same speeds that the rest of the civilized world seems to enjoy.

[Red Hood]

will it work with my 56k?

[Antirock]

Originally Posted by stow123

id much rather buy media on a disc than download.

I thought that 8 years ago when all of my college friends were starting to use Napster. I thought that I would much rather buy a cd and have the actual disc. It is now 2008 and I don't own a single physical cd anymore. All of my music is digital!

So who knows.

[miked924]

I'm all for the disc when it comes to movies

[AintNoSin]

Originally Posted by Pyre

will it work with my 56k?

What is that? A new TV or something?