OK, how many HDTVs are there really?

[BillCable]

OK, I'm stumped by some very contradictory info. I'm hoping somebody here can shed light on it.

According to the Consumer Electronics Association, at the end of 2007 there were predicted to be 53 million HD-TVs sold in the USA.

http://www.ce.org/Press/CurrentNews/...l.asp?id=11309

According to Pacific Media Associates, there will be 113 million HD-ready displays by the end of 2008, up 40% from current numbers. That'd peg the current number at 80 million. I'm assuming a big chunk of those are computer monitors rather than HD-TVs.

http://www.dvdfile.com/index.php?opt...k=view&id=6496

Those two pieces of data sort of line up, assuming 30 million computer monitors. I'd be happy with those if not for the Nielsen data. Nielsen states that there are only 15 million HD-TVs in the US, a mere 13.7% of US households!

http://www.nielsenmedia.com/nc/porta...00ac0a260aRCRD

How can one agency conclude there are over 50 million HD-TVs in the US, while another concludes there are just over 15? The difference there is just inexplicable. The CEA data is THREE TIMES GREATER than the Nielsen!

I was hoping somebody here could explain this. How can they be so different? Is one just flat-out wrong?

[Sonny]

I dont know........but I own a bunch of them

[tron3]

One thing is certain, their numbers are coming up wrong as of 2/17/09 when a LOT more people than suspected will complain of lost tv reception. If they don't get their act together this will be a nightmare.

Not to mention a threat to national security as most people get emergency news from their tv's. What will happen in the event of severe storms or other such emergencies? Doesn't look good.

[plee]

Originally Posted by tron3

One thing is certain, their numbers are coming up wrong as of 2/17/09 when a LOT more people than suspected will complain of lost tv reception. If they don't get their act together this will be a nightmare.

Not to mention a threat to national security as most people get emergency news from their tv's. What will happen in the event of severe storms or other such emergencies? Doesn't look good.

I thought that was just the date broadcasters must be transmitting digital signals. Analog signals will still continue for awhile longer.

[jorg]

ka hd capiable disbvices dosent mean teh tv is hd just means it can accept hd signle and including computer monitors isent taht cheatering if theres around 300 million computers in the world how many of them have a resolution above 720p? almost all of em 1024 by 768 i belive is the "basic" resolution

fromw hat i understand aruond 30 million hd tv is usa and 50 million in world(only like 60% sure above the world figure) but after seeing this data u see how when wickeywoo said blu-ray penitraction will contiune untill 2018

[Sylin]

I am wary of anything Nielsen says. Their surveys rely too much on random feedback. They are VERY hard for most people to fill out and comprehend, and a lot of people lie just to get the enticement they offer for completing it, which throws off the accuracy.

For example, if they send surveys to 100 homes and 14 of them say they have HDTV, then Nielsen assumes ALL OF AMERICA only has 14% HDTV ownership. Nevermind they may have sent those 100 surveys to low-income families or members of the Anti-Technology League.

(FYI, as a former journalist I can tell you this is how 99% of magazine "polls" are conducted, and why you cannot trust them.)

Meanwhile, other legit sources try to grab retail sales data, consumer surveys, market research, etc. and then line that up to calculate an average. These are more reliable, although there's no way to be entirely accurate, even within 10% +/-.

[BillCable]

Is this Nielsen the same Nielsen that gives us our Blu-ray v/s HD DVD sales data every week? Because I know they rely on sales data for their high def stats. Why would they rely on surveys for HD-TV ownership?

[dobyblue]

ACcording to Understand & Solutions, right now 34% of US households have HDTV.

By 2011 they expect that number to be 90%.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by BillCable

Is this Nielsen the same Nielsen that gives us our Blu-ray v/s HD DVD sales data every week? Because I know they rely on sales data for their high def stats. Why would they rely on surveys for HD-TV ownership?

Raw sales aren't a good indication of the percentage of homes with HDTVs in them.

If you are counting up Blu-Rays sold, it doesn't matter who the buyer is.

If you are trying to figure out Household HDTV penetration, it's a big deal who the buyer is.

[BillCable]

Ah, that's true.

But even the raw numbers are vastly different. You can't tell me that Nielsen concludes that the 53 million HD-TVs are owned by just 15 million households.

[WHITETRASH]

Originally Posted by BillCable

Ah, that's true.

But even the raw numbers are vastly different. You can't tell me that Nielsen concludes that the 53 million HD-TVs are owned by just 15 million households.

Why not? I am not a rich man by anyone's definition and I own 3 HDTVs. I am sure some people own 4 or 5.

[Terjyn]

I could believe that. (53 million sold, 15 million houses)

Every sports bar in America has 1 or more HDTVs installed.

Most large corporations have displays with HDTVs installed.

Rich families will have multiples.

etc. etc.

There are sports bars here that have 50 HDTVs scattered throughout. Doesn't take too many of those before that 53 million number comes way down fast.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by plee

I thought that was just the date broadcasters must be transmitting digital signals. Analog signals will still continue for awhile longer.

Nope. Analog is going away for specialized government use. This date has already been pushed back a few times. I am really surprised they didn't give us a very liberal and generous date of the year 2020.

Though I have some portable tv's which will become paperweights, I look forward to 2/17/09. Someone said that digital broadcasters will do terresitrial transmission at full power. Don't quote me, may or may not be true. But I look forward to even more digital channels than I receive now.

Bye-bye Analog. Was nice knowing you.

[BillCable]

Originally Posted by tron3

Nope. Analog is going away for specialized government use. This date has already been pushed back a few times. I am really surprised they didn't give us a very liberal and generous date of the year 2020.

There's too much money to be made auctioning off that portion of the spectrum to wait until 2020.

I still find it very hard to swallow that 53 million HD-TVs would be spread across 15 million households. What percentage do you think owns more than 1? Even if as much as 50% own more than one (I'd guess it to be much lower), that leaves 38 million HD-TVs distributed across 7.5 million households. That's over FIVE HD-TVs per household! It just doesn't make sense.

And I pulled some restaurant data off the web:

Number of bars and restaurants in the US.

Employers
Food services & drinking places 504,641
Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) 48,856

Nonemployers
Food services & drinking places 694,310
Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) 71,618

So that's roughtly 1.3 million restaurants and bars in the entire country. Even if every single one had 10 HD-TVs - every McDonald's, Denny's and Hooters - that would still only account for 13 million HD-TVs. It certainly can't account for the entire 30+ million unaccounted for units.

[Terjyn]

It's not just bars. I was just giving you an example.

The front lobby of the corporation where I work has an entire wall of HDTVs.

I work in one plant out of dozens in the US, just for my corporation.

I am not going to spell out every single use for HDTVs when you inevitably respond to this with "But that can't be another 40 million HDTVs".

Think outside the box. I'd be shocked if more than 25% of HDTVs in current use were actually in homes. Businesses have *far* more uses for them than the average consumer.

[WHITETRASH]

I live in a relatively small town. Every business or doctor's/dentist's office with a lobby has at least one. Every bar has at least 5 with some bars having 20 or more. I have three and a friend of mine has four. This is just anecdotal but I am sure that extrapolates out to alot more in more urban areas. My gripe is most business establishments where I live do not even have an HD source connected to their sets. I guess they just dig flat tvs.

[SGRSBSKIER]

In the article http://www.ce.org/Press/CurrentNews/...l.asp?id=11309 is says 30% of US households have and HDTV.

That would put it around 33 million households.

I have no idea how Nielsen only gets 15.5 million households.

[BillCable]

That's what I'm saying! Why is the Nielsen data so different?? It just doesn't make sense.

[Anthony P]

the issue is three fold

1) no one knows the distribution (who buys what and for what use)
2) the numbers grow fast (so several weeks/months difference can make a big difference
3) the TV portion of Neilsen (unlike VS) gets very small samples from certain areas and then tries and extrapolate. Some comes from the different sample pops and then they compare them to other external factors (i.e. a lot of HD here while not much there). What you also need to do is consider that there are two proportions in that article (use HD and have HD), the way they get the people that have HD is by asking them if they have an HDTV, like any question in a poll sometimes it can be misconstrued or something.

[reiella]

Originally Posted by ikcizokm

I am wary of anything Nielsen says. Their surveys rely too much on random feedback. They are VERY hard for most people to fill out and comprehend, and a lot of people lie just to get the enticement they offer for completing it, which throws off the accuracy.

For example, if they send surveys to 100 homes and 14 of them say they have HDTV, then Nielsen assumes ALL OF AMERICA only has 14% HDTV ownership. Nevermind they may have sent those 100 surveys to low-income families or members of the Anti-Technology League.

(FYI, as a former journalist I can tell you this is how 99% of magazine "polls" are conducted, and why you cannot trust them.)

Meanwhile, other legit sources try to grab retail sales data, consumer surveys, market research, etc. and then line that up to calculate an average. These are more reliable, although there's no way to be entirely accurate, even within 10% +/-.

Want to know how Nielsen polls the viewing public?

Cold Dialing.

[ add / edit ]
And, well, I'd like to know a better way to poll a random sample in the US. Admittantly, it does favor upper income households [multiple-lines].